The 2010 and 2012 elections seemed completely different. 2010 was a Republican "wave," while 2012 was Democratic payback. But these two elections had one big thing in common: In 17 races designated by Real Clear Politics as "toss-ups," the Democrats outperformed the RCP polling average in EVERY SINGLE ONE.
In 2010, Democrats in the toss-up states performed an average of 4.2 points better than RCP's final projection. In 2012 it was similar, with Democrats performing an average of 4.1 points better. While the Democrats did not win all of these seats, they won many and made races close in several others.
Much more below the fold.
Looking at the broader senate races in 2010 and 2012, Democrats still outperformed the most of the polls. Of the 26 races in 2012 where polling continued into the last few days, Democrats outperformed in 22 of them (Republicans did better in 3 and the race in Washington state produced the exact margin predicted). In 2010, the Democrats outperformed in 19 of 29 races.
Why is their this difference? Could it be that the polls are simply terrible at picking "likely voters?" Or perhaps the Democrats are showing the strength of their vaunted ground game. Maybe it's a little of both. But this trend deserves some attention.
So are the "pundits" and predictors keeping taking this track record into account? Is it part of Fivethirtyeight's "fundamentals?" Nate Silver actually claimed yesterday that the model does take into account a very slight poll bias in favor of the Republicans, but far from the 4 point average for the last two election cycles. Sam Wang claims that the possibility of bias is is reflected in his "range" of probability, but again it is at most an extremely slight bias.
But think for a moment what a 4 point swing in each "toss up" state would mean.
Begich would only be down 0.4 in Alaska.
Prior would be up almost 1 point in Arkansas.
Udall would be up almost 2 points in Colorado.
Nunn would be up 2 points in Georgia.
And the Democrats would almost certainly keep the senate. Fivethirtyeight actually indicated that even a 2 point swing would give the Democrats a 98% chance to keep the senate.
So shout it from the rooftops- This race is far from over! And Get Out The Vote!