Leading Off:
• NE-02: On Friday, the GOP unveiled two new negative ads in this fiercely contested Omaha-area race that instantly achieved serious levels of notoriety. First up is the NRCC's new throwback spot. A few candidates this year have revisited infamous hatchet-man Lee Atwater's playbook and run ads hitting their opponents for supporting policies that have supposedly allowed dangerous criminals to get released from prison early—a tried-and-true fearmongering tactic.
Now national Republicans are now giving it a shot to bail out embattled GOP Rep. Lee Terry. The NRCC's spot features footage of news reports about Nikko Jenkins, who was convicted of multiple murders. The narrator describes how Jenkins was able to leave jail early because of something known as the "Good Time Law," which he goes on to accuse Democrat Brad Ashford of supporting.
This spot is drawing plenty of comparisons with George H.W. Bush's infamous Willie Horton ad and it's almost certainly going to get a lot of attention in Omaha. The Jenkins case was a high-profile story even before this ad came out and there has been a good deal of controversy over Jenkins' release. However, it's always hard to say how voters will respond to ads like this. It worked for Papa Bush but backfired for Alaska Democratic Sen. Mark Begich when he tried a similar approach after the victims' family complained.
Terry himself is also going after Ashford with a similar line of attack. The ad begins with some very obvious fearmongering, with the narrator talking about "Killings on our streets, and beheading abroad," complete with a gun pointed directly at the audience. The narrator then similarly accuses Ashford of fighting for the Good Time Law, arguing if he "won't protect us from the bad guys here, how can we ever expect him to protect us from the bad guys over there?" This ad is also drawing plenty of criticism from Democrats, but again, the jury is still out on whether it'll be effective.
It's hard to see Terry or the NRCC taking these kinds of risks if they felt good about their chances. Romney won the 2nd District 53-46 but Terry barely scraped by in 2012 against an underfunded opponent. Terry also complicated his chances with some deeply clueless remarks about keeping his paycheck during last year's government shutdown. Emily Cahn at Roll Call reports that both parties have private polls showing Terry losing, and she quotes one Republican strategist arguing that the incumbent has a "path to victory." You normally don't argue that someone has a "path to victory" if they're expected to win.
Midterm turnout should help the GOP, but so far, early voting is actually looking great for Team Blue. Both parties are spending big here and it was clear even before these ads went out that Terry had a real race on his hands. The GOP can still win this contest, and the new spots introduce an unpredictable element here, but there isn't much doubt that Terry is in trouble. As a result, Daily Kos Elections is changing our race rating from Lean Republican to Tossup.
Head below the fold for a roundup of ads from races across the country.
Senate:
• AR-Sen: For the GOP, Americans for Prosperity shells out $117,000 the John Bolton Super PAC spends $389,000, and Arkansas Horizon dumps $510,000. For Team Blue, Senate Majority PAC spends $320,000 (here and here).
• CO-Sen: The DSCC goes after Republican Cory Gardner on his budget cuts. Also for the Democrats, Americans for Responsible Solutions spends $272,000, the League of Conservation Voters is out with $752,000 (here and here), and NextGen Climate drops $522,000.
On the other side, Gardner features his grandmother, promising he'll protect Social Security for her generation and making sure it remains solvent for future ones. Americans for Prosperity spends $209,000 (here and here).
• IA-Sen: Democrat Bruce Braley speaks to the camera, contrasting his Social Security plan with Republican Joni Ernst. Braley has been running quite a few ads where he directly talks to the camera and he may see it as a good way to boost his favorable ratings after some bad stumbles. NextGen Climate also spends $204,000 for Braley, while Senate Majority PAC drops $245,000 for him (here and here).
For the GOP, American Crossroads portrays Braley as a partisan who hates veterans and farmers.
• IA-Sen, NH-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is dusting off some old ads starring Mitt Romney that it ran a little while ago and putting them back on the air.
• KS-Sen: National Republicans continue their belated attempt to save this seat. Freedom Partners drops a hefty $1,064,000, while the NRA spends $191,000.
• KY-Sen: Democrat Alison Grimes highlights her work on a law that lets domestic violence victims vote without their address being made public.
• LA-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu argues she never cut Medicare benefits while Republican Bill Cassidy's plan is the one that hurts seniors. The DSCC runs with a similar line of attack, hitting Cassidy on the retirement age and Medicare. On the GOP side, Americans for Prosperity spends $136,000.
• MI-Sen: The pro-Democratic NextGen Climate spends $158,000.
• MT-Sen: Republican Steve Daines.
• NC-Sen: Republican Thom Tillis argues Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan voted for the stimulus to help her husband's company get grants. Freedom Partners runs with the same line of attack while the NRA ties Hagan to gun-control groups. Crossroads GPS also ties Hagan to Obama on basically everything they can.
We also have pro-GOP expenditures from National Right to Life for $108,000, Americans for Prosperity for $300,000, the NRA for $365,000, and the John Bolton Super PAC for $524,000. On the other side, the Environmental Defense Fund drops $443,000.
• NH-Sen: The John Bolton Super PAC finishes its national tour with $389,000 for Republican Scott Brown.
• SD-Sen: The American Hospital Association spends $102,000 for the GOP.
• VA-Sen: Republican Ed Gillespie is about to end most of his statewide ad campaign, but here's one more spot for the road.
• Chamber: Pro-GOP expenditures (here and here).
• DSCC: Pro-Dem expenditures (here, here, and here).
Gubernatorial:
• CO-Gov: Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper talks about his record while pledging to keep running a positive campaign.
• CT-Gov: Republican Tom Foley calls for lowering taxes and keeping spending flat.
• FL-Gov: That didn't take long. The Florida Democratic Party spends half the ad hitting Republican Gov. Rick Scott's record as a fan blows, and the other half with a debate clip of Democrat Charlie Crist asking if they're going to talk about a fan or the future of the state. The spot built around the now legendary Fangate.
The Republican Party of Florida portrays Crist as disconnected from real people's struggles. There are no fans present here though.
• NRA: Pro-GOP expenditures.
• GA-Gov: Democrat Jason Carter accuses Republican Gov. Nathan Deal got rich through unethical means. Deal fires back, painting Carter as dishonest.
• ID-Gov: Democrat A.J. Balukoff argues Republican Gov. Butch Otter is unethical.
• NE-Gov: Two spots from Republican Pete Ricketts (here and here). The first features him talking about his business background in a mock job interview with his daughter. Ricketts says he'll grow jobs but refuses to grow her allowance, essentially forfeiting the ten-year old voting bloc. The second ad features Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert also talking about Ricketts' business history.
• TX-Gov: Republican Greg Abbott throws the kitchen sink at Democrat Wendy Davis.
House:
• AZ-01: The DCCC hits Republican Andy Tobin for taking money from lobbyists while gutting education funding.
• CA-07: Republican Doug Ose characterizes Democratic Rep. Ami Bera as part of the problem in Washington.
• FL-18: Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy continues to flood the zone with positive ads, this time talking about water protection.
• FL-26: AFT Solidarity spends $249,000 for the Democrats.
• GA-12: Democratic Rep. John Barrow fights back on GOP attempts to portray him as ineffective. Memorably, the spot features a woman whose husband got his VA benefits thanks to Barrow, with her declaring, "Anybody who says John Barrow isn't getting things done is lying like a no legged dog."
• IA-03: Americans for Responsible Solutions spends $269,000 for Team Blue.
• IL-13: The American Hospital Association spends $209,000 for the GOP.
• IL-17: The American Hospital Association spends $213,000 for the Democrats.
• MA-06: Republican Richard Tisei ties Democrat Seth Moulton to Wall Street, while casting himself as a middle class champion.
• MN-08: The NRA has one of their generic ads modified to support Republican Stewart Mills.
• ND-AL: Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer goes positive on Social Security and Medicare.
• NJ-03: Republican Tom MacArthur continues to argue Democrat Aimee Belgard is a tax-raising liar, before stressing his business background.
• NY-01: Republican Lee Zeldin lays out a generic conservative platform while arguing Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop is part of the problem.
• NY-19: American Unity PAC spends $101,000 for the GOP.
• NY-23: Democrat Martha Robertson accuses Republican Rep. Tom Reed voted to raise middle class taxes.
• TX-23: The DCCC goes after Republican Will Hurd's budget plan, accusing him of wanting painful cuts for the middle class.
• American Action Network: The American Action Network and Congressional Leadership Fund are teaming up to spend a total of $3 million for the GOP in seven Democratic-held seats: FL-26, HI-01, IL-12, IA-01, MA-06, MN-07, and NY-18.
