Leading Off:
• NE-02: On Friday, the GOP unveiled two new negative ads in this fiercely contested Omaha-area race that instantly achieved serious levels of notoriety. First up is the NRCC's new throwback spot. A few candidates this year have revisited infamous hatchet-man Lee Atwater's playbook and run ads hitting their opponents for supporting policies that have supposedly allowed dangerous criminals to get released from prison early—a tried-and-true fear-mongering tactic.
Now national Republicans are now giving it a shot to bail out embattled GOP Rep. Lee Terry. The NRCC's spot features footage of news reports about Nikko Jenkins, who was convicted of multiple murders. The narrator describes how Jenkins was able to leave jail early because of something known as the "Good Time Law," which he goes on to accuse Democrat Brad Ashford of supporting.
This spot is drawing plenty of comparisons with George H.W. Bush's infamous Willie Horton ad and it's almost certainly going to get a lot of attention in Omaha. The Jenkins case was a high-profile story even before this ad came out and there has been a good deal of controversy over his release. However, it's always hard to say how voters will respond to ads like this. It worked for Papa Bush but backfired for Alaska Democratic Sen. Mark Begich when he tried a similar approach after the victims' family complained.
Terry himself is also going after Ashford with a similar line of attack. The ad begins with some very obvious fear-mongering, with the narrator talking about "Killings on our streets, and beheading abroad," complete with a gun pointed directly at the audience. The narrator then similarly accuses Ashford of fighting for the Good Time Law, arguing if he "won't protect us from the bad guys here, how can we ever expect him to protect us from the bad guys over there?" This ad is also drawing plenty of criticism from Democrats, but again, the jury is still out on whether it'll be effective.
It's hard to see Terry or the NRCC taking these kinds of risks if they felt good about their chances. Romney won the 2nd District 53-46 but Terry barely scraped by in 2012 against an underfunded opponent. Terry also complicated his chances with some deeply clueless remarks about keeping his paycheck during last year's government shutdown. Emily Cahn at Roll Call also reports that both parties have private polls showing Terry losing and quotes one Republican strategist arguing that the incumbent has a "path to victory." You normally don't argue that someone has a "path to victory" if they're expected to win.
Midterm turnout should help the GOP, but so far, early voting is actually looking great for Team Blue. Both parties are spending big here and it was clear even before these ads went out that Terry had a real race on his hands. The GOP can still win this contest and the new spots introduce an unpredictable element here, but there isn't much doubt that Terry is in trouble. As a result, Daily Kos Elections is changing our race rating from Lean Republican to Tossup.
Race Ratings: Before a national election nothing can be certain except more ads, more polls, and more race ratings changes. This time we move 11 races, including the aforementioned Nebraska's 2nd District (see our NE-02 item). Five contests move to the Democrats, five move to the GOP, and one race is a Democratic vs. Democratic general election. As always, you can check out all of our race ratings on our big board.
• GA-Sen (Likely R to Lean R): We've struggled mightily with our Georgia race ratings all year long thanks to one confounding fact: runoffs. The Peach State, as you may know, is one of only two where candidates who fail to clear 50 percent of the vote in November go on to a second round of voting between the top two vote-getters to determine a winner (Louisiana is the other). So in a sense, we're evaluating two different races at once and trying to combine our assessment into a single rating that incorporates the odds of a candidate winning outright in the general election, and then, if there's a runoff, the odds of winning in a one-on-one battle.
So even though Democrat Michelle Nunn has, at various points this cycle, held the lead, we felt it was unlikely that she could beat the 50 percent mark on Nov. 4. At the same time, given Georgia Democrats' difficult history with runoffs (they've never won a single one), we also felt it was unlikely that she could beat Republican David Perdue in January. Consequently, we've stuck with our rating of Likely Republican.
But things have gone seriously sideways for the GOP in recent weeks, with Perdue getting shredded for outsourcing jobs to China—and then defending, defending, defending his beliefs to the utter hilt. Is he a Romney-flavored version of Todd Akin? According to unreleased Democratic internal polls, he may well be, as the DSCC is now arguing that Nunn has a chance at delivering a kill-shot next month. At the very least, though, she now seems to be ahead again, as a couple of public polls—and the NRSC's very soft pushback—have confirmed.
We still think Perdue has the advantage, though. Our poll-based Election Outlook model only gives Nunn a 27 percent chance at a Nov. 4 victory (as you can see at the bottom of the totem pole at right), and a runoff is still the likeliest outcome. Nunn would remain the underdog then, too, for reasons we've explained in some detail in the past, and if we do go to a second round, we'll probably have to recalibrate all over again.
But for now, Perdue's self-inflicted wounds have managed to transfuse new life into the Nunn campaign, and the possibility of a November surprise is much greater than it once was. Therefore, we're moving this race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
As a P.S., you might be wondering why we're keeping the governor's race at Likely R. It's on the cusp, but there, our polling model only gives Democrat Jason Carter a 17 percent chance at an outright win next month. That's not a huge difference from Nunn's 27 percent, but Democrats simply aren't even talking about the possibility that Carter could knock off GOP Gov. Nathan Deal on Nov. 4—and the Nunn talk has been backed up with real DSCC dollars.
So we're holding at Likely for now, though in the likely event of a runoff, we're sure to see new polling. Again, once we do, we'll revisit as necessary.
• LA-Sen (Tossup to Tossup/Tilt R): Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu is a formidable politician and someone who should never be counted out, but she's facing stiff headwinds this year. Polls consistently show this contest going to a December runoff and have Republican Bill Cassidy ahead in a one-on-one matchup. We don't know what runoff turnout will look like, and Landrieu proved in 2002 that she can win if the race goes overtime. However, Cassidy has the edge in this conservative state.
• MI-Sen (Lean D to Likely D): Even Republican Terri Lynn Land's allies have privately admitted her best chance to win is to keep her head down and hope for a Republican wave. While things aren't going well for Team Blue nationally, Land has not benefited at all. Land has run a weak campaign (Exhibit A: this ad) and Michigan remains a stubbornly blue state in federal races. Polls consistently show her behind Democrat Gary Peters and the NRSC recently pulled out of the state. Land is very wealthy and can scrape by on her own, but it doesn't look like this will be her year.
• NH-Sen (Likely D to Lean D): We were very skeptical when Republican Scott Brown carpetbagged from Massachusetts to challenge Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, and he's certainly had plenty of missteps on the campaign trail. However, the political climate is not good for Democrats and swingy New Hampshire is particularly susceptible to shifting tides. Polls have usually shown Shaheen up but not by too much. Tellingly, a recent Democratic internal gave her a 6-point lead, indicating that while Sheheen may be ahead, she isn't in a comfortable place. Both parties and their allies are spending big here and the polls still point to a Shaheen win, but a win for bqhatevwr isn't as improbable as it used to look.
• CA-07 (Lean D to Tossup): Democratic Rep. Ami Bera is a very tough candidate and the GOP will need to work hard to unseat him. Still, he has the unenviable task of trying to win in a swing seat in what's not shaping up to be a good Democratic year. Both parties are pouring resources into this suburban Sacramento seat and the DCCC recently diverted money from other districts to hit Republican Doug Ose. We had a very close race here in 2012 and it looks like we're in for another.
• CA-17 (Likely Honda to Lean Honda): Veteran Rep. Mike Honda is locked in expensive general election fight with fellow Democrat Ro Khanna in this Silicon Valley seat. Khanna has been trying to forge a coalition of Republicans, independents, and enough Democrats to win, and he may be making gains. Khanna recently released a poll showing the contest tied at 38-38 apiece. Honda's own internal gave him a 42-27 lead, but both surveys put Honda much further away from a majority than an incumbent wants to be right now. Honda has done nothing to alienate most voters and he should still win, but Khanna has hung in there and can't be counted out.
• CT-05 (Lean D to Likely D): Freshman Democrat Elizabeth Esty won a close race in 2012 in Connecticut's most competitive district, but she seems to be on firmer ground this year. Democrats had been spending here, hitting Republican Mark Greenberg for calling Social Security a failure, and the ads may have done their job. The DCCC recently shifted resources from this race, just as Esty released a poll giving her a 52-36 lead. Greenberg failed to release better numbers and instead issued a borderline-hysterical response that all but confirmed he was down. Greenberg has plenty of money left to spend but it doesn't look like he's gaining traction here.
• OH-14 (Likely R to Safe R): Democrats had some hope that Michael Wager could make this a race against freshman Republican David Joyce in this swingy seat, but that hasn't come to pass. Wager's fundraising has gone downhill in the last few months and he has no real outside support. Democrats may make another run at this district in 2016 but it looks like this seat is off the table this year.
• OR-05 (Likely D to Safe D): While Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader holds a competitive Salem-area seat, he's been a very tough target for the GOP. Team Red initially had some hope that Clackamas County Commissioner Tootie Smith could give him a race, but her fundraising has been downright awful. Smith only raised $49,000 during her entire campaign, and no outside groups are getting involved here. It doesn't look like this one is going anywhere.
• WV-01 (Likely R to Safe R): Democrats initially thought that state Auditor Glen Gainer could pry this ancestrally blue seat away from sophomore Republican David McKinley, but this contest hasn't looked very appealing in a long time. Gainer's fundraising hasn't been good, and outside groups have been staying away from the race. Democrats are on the defensive across West Virginia and are concentrating on holding the state House and the 3rd District, and taking this seat this year is a few bridges too far.
3Q Fundraising:
• KS-Sen: Pat Roberts (R-inc) $1.7 million raised, $1.3 million on hand; Greg Orman (I) $1.5 million on hand
• MA-Gov (Oct. 1-15): Martha Coakley (D) $351,000 raised, $297,000 self funded, $319,000 on hand; Charlie Baker (R) $787,000 raised, $1.5 million on hand
Senate:
• IA-Sen: Finally, some good news for Bruce Braley: PPP's newest poll, conducted for the League of Conservation Voters, finds him with a 48-47 edge on Republican Joni Ernst. Braley's trailed in most polling over the last month, and PPP's last two surveys both had Ernst ahead 2 points, so this has to be a bit of a relief. However, the LCV has endorsed Braley and is working hard to help Ernst lose, so they wouldn't go about releasing numbers that looked bad for their guy.
In not-so great news, retiring Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin still has $2.4 million in his campaign account but hasn't transferred it to the DSCC, despite requests from Harry Reid and other Democratic leaders. Harkin reportedly wants to give the money to the public policy institute at Drake University that bears his name, but with his prestige and connections, he could easily raise that sum from wealthy donors after he retires. Right now, Democrats desperately need that money to help Braley keep Harkin's seat blue—and preserve his legacy.
• Polling: We have a surprisingly light batch of Senate polls this time around:
• KY-Sen: Rasmussen: Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 52, Alison Grimes (D): 44 (Sept.: 46-41 McConnell)
• MT-Sen: MSU Billings: Steve Daines (R): 47, Amanda Curtis (D): 31
Gubernatorial:
• CT-Gov: Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy and his allies have been relentlessly portraying Republican Tom Foley as a heartless and out-of-touch rich guy, and their task just got a little easier on Friday. The Hartford Courant reports that Foley paid zero percent on his federal taxes from 2011 to 2013.
Foley's tone-deaf response probably did not do him any favors. He "repeatedly laughed off Democratic criticism," saying, "I didn't have any income. It's pretty easy. It's America, you know. If you don't have any income, you don't pay taxes." Given that Foley is worth millions and self financed his 2010 gubernatorial bid to the tune of $11 million, it's hard to exactly feel sympathetic for the guy.
• FL-Gov: Here's some great background on fangate, including a blow-by-blow of the behind-the-scenes temper tantrum that Republican Gov. Rick Scott threw over Democrat Charlie Crist's desire to use an extremely conventional cooling device during their debate on Wednesday night. It's amply clear at this point that Scott deliberately sought to deny Crist a fan (which he's well-known for employing during public appearances) simply to get under his skin. Instead, the childish ploy blew up in spectacular fashion when Scott refused to take the stage, making him look like an immortal idiot for all time.
• Polling: Three gubernatorial polls to snack on:
• IL-Gov: S. Illinois Univ.: Bruce Rauner (R): 42, Pat Quinn (D-inc): 41 (Feb.: 40-38 Rauner)
• MA-Gov: SocialSphere: Martha Coakley (D): 41, Charlie Baker (R): 41 (Oct. 7: 39-34 Coakley)
• PA-Gov: Magellan: Tom Wolf (D): 49, Tom Corbett (R-inc): 42 (Sept.: 49-40 Wolf) (conducted for Keystone Report)
A week ago, SocialSphere
unexpectedly showed an 8-point swing to Coakley and now it's swung 5-points back to Baker. In all likelihood, Coakley's 5-point lead a week ago was an outlier and the race never really moved much during this time. However, it is worth pointing out that this isn't the first or even second time SocialSphere has
shown large unexplained swings over the course of a week, so this may be a problem with their methodology rather than just an instance of one freak poll. Most recent surveys from other groups also
show a close contest here.
House:
• HI-01, IA-01: The American Action Network, which shares its leadership with the John Boehner-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund, announced on Friday they'll be spending a combined $3 million on map-expanding operations. They have seven Democratic-held targets and the most notable is the open seat in HI-01, where a recent public poll found a close race but not much else has been happening. Another interesting target is the open seat in IA-01, which the DCCC just diverted $600,000 to protect. They're also moving in on MA-06 (see our item below) as well as four unsurprising targets: FL-26, IL-12, MN-07, and NY-18.
• MA-06: In the last 24 hours, it's gotten a lot harder to figure out where we stand on the House race in Massachusetts' 6th district. On the plus side, the DCCC just pulled out, sounding confident. They still have a large reservation up in the Boston market to cover NH-01 and NH-02, but they pulled $430,000 earmarked for MA-06 to use on other races.
On the minus side, the John Boehner-linked Congressional Leadership Fund just moved in, going up with $500,000 in ads. One other warning flag is that the Emerson College Polling Society just took another poll of MA-06, and they find that Republican Richard Tisei still has a very small lead over Democratic nominee Seth Moulton; Tisei's lead in Friday's poll is 43-40, barely changed from a 41-39 lead in late September.
• MN-08: SurveyUSA checks in on the race between Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan and Republican Stewart Mills and finds some bad news for Nolan. They give Mills a 47-39 lead in this competitive Iron Range seat. The only previously released poll was a late September Nolan internal that gave the congressman a 48-37 lead. Both parties and their allies have spent big to win this seat and neither side has given any indication that they're drawing down anytime soon.
SurveyUSA was in the field here in 2010 and 2012. Four years ago they found an unexpectedly tight race between Democratic incumbent Jim Oberstar and his still unheralded Republican foe Chip Cravaack, finding Oberstar up just 47-46. Just days later Cravaack pulled off a surprising 48-47 win, very close to what SurveyUSA found. They weren't so lucky in 2012. Days before the election they found Nolan up only 47-45; he easily won 54-45, a 7-point miss. We'll find out soon enough if SurveyUSA is back on target this year.
• MT-AL: MSU Billings: Ryan Zinke (R): 40, John Lewis (D): 33.
Grab Bag:
• Polltopia: Did you get irrationally exuberant when SurveyUSA dropped that poll a few days ago showing Michelle Nunn up 3 in Georgia? Did you dive under the bed when you saw that NEC poll showing Scott Brown up 1 in New Hampshire? If your answer to either of these questions was "yes", get thee to the newest edition of the Polling Wrap, where your sanity check awaits.
Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AR-Sen: For the GOP, Americans for Prosperity shells out $117,000 the John Bolton Super PAC spends $389,000, and Arkansas Horizon dumps $510,000. For Team Blue, Senate Majority PAC spends $320,000 (here and here).
• CO-Sen: The DSCC goes after Republican Cory Gardner on his budget cuts. Also for the Democrats, Americans for Responsible Solutions spends $272,000, the League of Conservation Voters is out with $752,000 (here and here), and NextGen Climate drops $522,000.
On the other side, Gardner features his grandmother, promising he'll protect Social Security for her generation and making sure it remains solvent for future ones. Americans for Prosperity spends $209,000 (here and here).
• IA-Sen: Democrat Bruce Braley speaks to the camera, contrasting his Social Security plan with Republican Joni Ernst. Braley has been running quite a few ads where he directly talks to the camera and he may see it as a good way to boost his favorable ratings after some bad stumbles. NextGen Climate also spends $204,000 for Braley, while Senate Majority PAC drops $245,000 for him (here and here).
For the GOP, American Crossroads portrays Braley as a partisan who hates veterans and farmers.
• IA-Sen, NH-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is dusting off some old ads starring Mitt Romney that it ran a little while ago and putting them back on the air.
• KS-Sen: National Republicans continue their belated attempt to save this seat. Freedom Partners drops a hefty $1,064,000, while the NRA spends $191,000.
• KY-Sen: Democrat Alison Grimes highlights her work on a law that lets domestic violence victims vote without their address being made public.
• LA-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu argues she never cut Medicare benefits while Republican Bill Cassidy's plan is the one that hurts seniors. The DSCC runs with a similar line of attack, hitting Cassidy on the retirement age and Medicare. On the GOP side, Americans for Prosperity spends $136,000.
• MI-Sen: The pro-Democratic NextGen Climate spends $158,000.
• MT-Sen: Republican Steve Daines.
• NC-Sen: Republican Thom Tillis argues Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan voted for the stimulus to help her husband's company get grants. Freedom Partners runs with the same line of attack while the NRA ties Hagan to gun-control groups. Crossroads GPS also ties Hagan to Obama on basically everything they can.
We also have pro-GOP expenditures from National Right to Life for $108,000, Americans for Prosperity for $300,000, the NRA for $365,000, and the John Bolton Super PAC for $524,000. On the other side, the Environmental Defense Fund drops $443,000.
• NH-Sen: The John Bolton Super PAC finishes its national tour with $389,000 for Republican Scott Brown.
• SD-Sen: The American Hospital Association spends $102,000 for the GOP.
• VA-Sen: Republican Ed Gillespie is about to end most of his statewide ad campaign, but here's one more spot for the road.
• Chamber: Pro-GOP expenditures (here and here).
• DSCC: Pro-Dem expenditures (here, here, and here).
• CO-Gov: Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper talks about his record while pledging to keep running a positive campaign.
• CT-Gov: Republican Tom Foley calls for lowering taxes and keeping spending flat.
• FL-Gov: That didn't take long. The Florida Democratic Party spends half the ad hitting Republican Gov. Rick Scott's record as a fan blows, and the other half with a debate clip of Democrat Charlie Crist asking if they're going to talk about a fan or the future of the state. The spot built around the now legendary Fangate.
The Republican Party of Florida portrays Crist as disconnected from real people's struggles. There are no fans present here though.
• NRA: Pro-GOP expenditures.
• GA-Gov: Democrat Jason Carter accuses Republican Gov. Nathan Deal got rich through unethical means. Deal fires back, painting Carter as dishonest.
• ID-Gov: Democrat A.J. Balukoff argues that Republican Gov. Butch Otter is unethical.
• NE-Gov: Two spots from Republican Pete Ricketts (here and here). The first features him talking about his business background in a mock job interview with his daughter. Ricketts says he'll grow jobs but refuses to grow her allowance, essentially forfeiting the ten-year old voting bloc. The second ad features Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert also talking about Ricketts' business history.
• TX-Gov: Republican Greg Abbott throws the kitchen sink at Democrat Wendy Davis.
• AZ-01: The DCCC hits Republican Andy Tobin for taking money from lobbyists while gutting education funding.
• CA-07: Republican Doug Ose characterizes Democratic Rep. Ami Bera as part of the problem in Washington.
• FL-18: Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy continues to flood the zone with positive ads, this time talking about water protection.
• FL-26: AFT Solidarity spends $249,000 for the Democrats.
• GA-12: Democratic Rep. John Barrow fights back on GOP attempts to portray him as ineffective. Memorably, the spot features a woman whose husband got his VA benefits thanks to Barrow, with her declaring, "Anybody who says John Barrow isn't getting things done is lying like a no legged dog."
• IA-03: Americans for Responsible Solutions spends $269,000 for Team Blue.
• IL-13: The American Hospital Association spends $209,000 for the GOP.
• IL-17: The American Hospital Association spends $213,000 for the Democrats.
• MA-06: Republican Richard Tisei ties Democrat Seth Moulton to Wall Street, while casting himself as a middle class champion.
• MN-08: The NRA has one of their generic ads modified to support Republican Stewart Mills.
• ND-AL: Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer goes positive on Social Security and Medicare.
• NJ-03: Republican Tom MacArthur continues to argue Democrat Aimee Belgard is a tax-raising liar, before stressing his business background.
• NY-01: Republican Lee Zeldin lays out a generic conservative platform while arguing Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop is part of the problem in Congress.
• NY-19: American Unity PAC spends $101,000 for the GOP.
• NY-23: Democrat Martha Robertson accuses Republican Rep. Tom Reed voted to raise middle class taxes.
• TX-23: The DCCC goes after Republican Will Hurd's budget plan, accusing him of wanting painful cuts for the middle class.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.
