Leading Off:
• Polltopia: Third-party candidates in Senate and gubernatorial races do not seem to be fading away as Election Day approaches. In individual races, there are some races where it appears a third-party candidate is gaining, and some where the opposite is true, but in general it's difficult to tell because not all polls include all candidates. If we combine all the polling for all the races we see essentially no trend in either the local regression or the median. We visualize this in the chart above by Dreaminonempty, though note that is does not include AK-Gov or KS-Sen, where there is no Democrat running.
As of Saturday, there were 29 races in the Daily Kos Elections polling database with a third-party candidate at a post-Labor Day average of 5.0 percent or greater, including KS-Sen and AK-Gov but excluding LA-Sen. Note that races where the major-party share of the vote is less than 95 percent have had much larger polling errors in the past.
Senate:
• GA-Sen: This headline is both incredibly unhelpful for David Perdue and also would have been surprising only if it couldn't have been written:
David Perdue Has Up To $1 Million Managed By Swiss Private Bank Fund
Just like
Bruce Rauner and
Mitt Romney, who both stashed millions in offshore tax havens in the Caymans, Perdue—another ultra-wealthy vulture capitalist—is also running money in a country known for its bank secrecy laws. Perdue's investment isn't a classic Swiss bank account, but the fund he's invested in is exempt from registering with the SEC, and is only available to extremely high net worth individuals. Just like your average Georgian, of course.
• Polling:
• AR-Sen: Hendrix College: Tom Cotton (R): 49, Mark Pryor (D-inc): 41 (July: 44-42 Cotton)
• CO-Sen: Monmouth: Cory Gardner (R): 47, Mark Udall (D-inc): 46
• CO-Sen: PPP (D): Gardner: 46, Udall: 43 (Sept.: 47-45 Gardner)
• KY-Sen: SurveyUSA: Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 44, Alison Grimes (D): 43, David Paterson (Lib): 5 (Oct. 2: 46-44-3 Grimes)
• LA-Sen: Multi-Quest Int'l: Bill Cassidy (R): 43, Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 40
• MI-Sen: Clarity Campaigns (D): Gary Peters (D): 48, Terri Lynn Land (R): 33 (Oct. 14: 49-37 Peters) (conducted for Progress Michigan)
• MI-Sen: Mitchell Research: Peters (D): 51, Land (R): 38 (Oct. 12: 50-39 Peters)
• MN-Sen: SurveyUSA: Al Franken (D-inc): 53, Mike McFadden (R): 38 (Oct. 2: 55-37 Franken)
• NC-Sen: SurveyUSA: Kay Hagan (D-inc): 46, Thom Tillis (R): 43, Sean Haugh (Lib): 6 (Oct. 12: 44-41-7 Hagan)
• NH-Sen: YouGov: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): 48, Scott Brown (R): 45 (Oct. 1: 48-41 Shaheen) (conducted for UMass Amherst)
Those Arkansas trendlines are seriously ugly for Pryor, though it doesn't seem like Hendrix wound up with an unfairly red sample, considering their House polls were quite optimistic for Democrats further downballot. As for Colorado, both PPP and Monmouth disagree with those two new Democratic internals over the weekend that found Udall up 3 points. And despite the DSCC/Senate Majority PAC pullout in Kentucky, SurveyUSA still shows the race close—but they were also the last pollster to have Grimes leading, so even they've now found McConnell ahead.
Note that in NH-Sen, the prior YouGov poll was paid for by the New York Times. Ordinarily, we look at a pollster's trendlines even if the clients change, but in this case, with YouGov's methodology so variable, it's possible that it may not be proper to compare the two surveys.
Gubernatorial:
• Polling: Poll out the barrel...
• AZ-Gov: McLaughlin (R): Doug Ducey (R) 37, Fred Duval (D) 36 (conducted for the Republican Attorneys General Association)
• AZ-Gov: Tarrance Group (R): Ducey (R) 43, DuVal 36 (conducted for the Arizona Free Enterprise Club)
• AZ-Gov: Rasmussen: Ducey 47, DuVal 42 (Aug.: 40-40 tie)
• CO-Gov: Monmouth: John Hickenlooper (D-inc) 50, Bob Beauprez (R) 43
• CO-Gov: PPP (D): Hickenlooper (D-inc) 45, Beauprez (R) 44 (July: 44-43 Hickenlooper)
• MI-Gov: Clarity Campaigns (D): Mark Schauer (D): 44, Rick Snyder (R-inc): 41 (Oct. 14: 44-43 Snyder) (conducted for Progress Michigan)
• MI-Gov: Mitchell Research: Snyder (R-inc) 48, Schauer (D) 46 (Oct. 13: 47-44 Snyder)
• SC-Gov: Susquehanna (R): Nikki Haley (R-inc) 51, Vince Sheheen (D) 31, Tom Ervin (I) 11 (July: 46-42 Haley)
• WI-Gov: PPP (D): Scott Walker (R-inc) 47, Mary Burke (D) 46 (April: Walker 48-43) (conducted for an unidentified client)
Someone's still paying McLaughlin?
Wow.
While Monmouth and PPP showed a similar result in the Senate contest (see above), their gubernatorial numbers are quite different. Most recent public polling has shown a tight race or a small Beauprez lead, much closer to what PPP is seeing than Monmouth's 7-point Hickenlooper lead.
There haven't been many polls out of South Carolina recently, but the two previous surveys also gave Haley a double-digit lead. A recent Sheheen internal only gave Haley a 4-point edge but even if it's right, there doesn't seem to be much doubt that the governor is winning right now. Neither national party is focusing its resources on this race.
House:
• AR-04, NJ-03, NV-04: Crossroads, one of the main GOP outside money groups, has made a couple very interesting moves in terms of ad spending. On the "good news" front, they've started putting $480,000 into AR-04, the GOP-held open seat being vacated by Tom Cotton. It's a dark-red (36 percent Obama in 2012) but ancestrally-Democratic seat, where ex-FEMA director James Lee Witt is running for the Dems and state Sen. Bruce Westerman is running for the GOP.
This race was low on most priority lists until now; a July Talk Business/Hendrix College poll put Westerman up by a comfortable 48-34 margin. But a new Talk Business poll released Tuesday shows Westerman leading only 44-42. We haven't seen any internal polls from either side here, but apparently it's a real enough threat for Crossroads to jump in.
On the "bad news" front, they're also seeking to expand the map in NV-04, with a $1 million buy. This is a light-blue (54 percent Obama in 2012) district where Dem freshman Steven Horsford faces an underfunded challenge from Republican state Assemblyman Cresent Hardy. There haven't been any polls released here, public or internal, so really they're trying to will a new race into being.
But what's probably piquing Crossroads' interest is terrible early voting numbers from Democrats in Clark County, who don't have much motivation to turn out with no Senate race and only an uncompetitive gubernatorial race at the top of the ticket. Possible beneficial side effects might include helping bolster GOP hopes of picking up the state Senate, and/or drawing DCCC/HMP money away from true tossup races elsewhere in the country.
Finally, Crossroads is also putting $897,000 into NC-Sen, and another $543,000 into NJ-03. The latter is a competitive race but one where the Dems have been starting to move away. Case in point, on Monday, the House Majority PAC moved an unspecified amount of money out of NJ-03, and into the basically safe open seat next door in NJ-01.
It's unlikely that Dem nominee Donald Norcross, running against ex-Philadelphia Eagle Garry Cobb, is in any trouble in this dark-blue district (65 percent Obama in 2012); instead, it mirrors what we've seen earlier this cycle, with South Jersey power brokers more interested in helping one of their own (Norcross is the brother of local boss George Norcross). Money given to HMP can be earmarked by donors to go specifically to certain races, so if they say "change direction," that's what HMP does.
• MN-08: Biden Alert! The VPOTUS is headed to northern Minnesota for a rally with Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan on Thursday in the city of Hibbing (about an hour north of Duluth). A recent SurveyUSA poll found Nolan's GOP opponent, Stewart Mills, up 8 points, but Mills had remained silent in the face of an earlier Nolan poll that had the incumbent leading by 11, so it's hard to know where this race really stands. Rest assured, though, that Joe Biden wouldn't be paying a visit to the Iron Range if Nolan didn't need the boost.
• Polling:
• AR-04: Hendrix College: Bruce Westerman (R) 44, James Lee Witt (D) 42 (July: 48-34 Westerman)
• MA-06: Garin-Hart-Yang (D): Seth Moulton (D) 45, Richard Tisei (R) 32 (Sept.: 41-31 Moulton) (Conducted for House Majority PAC)
• ND-AL: DFM Research (D): Kevin Cramer (R-inc) 46, George Sinner (D) 39 (conducted for Say Anything Blog/ Valley News Live)
• NH-02: New England College: Anne Kuster (D-inc) 49, Marilinda Garcia (R) 43 (Oct. 14: 46-43 Kuster)
The race in Massachusetts' 6th has been very hard to figure out. On one hand, GOP groups have been
investing real money here, and they're
touting polls giving Tisei a narrow lead. On the other hand the DCCC just diverted resources it was planning to spend here to other races, and this poll indicates that Moulton is far ahead. The Emerson College Polling Society has been the only independent pollster to recently take a look and they found a tight race. It's hard to know what to think here: It's possible both sides really are seeing different poll numbers and are acting accordingly.
The new DFM poll isn't radically different from Cramer's own survey, which gave him a 48-38 lead. Sinner's own poll gave the Democrat a 2-point lead, while a recent independent survey from Forum Communications gave Cramer a gaudy 46-27.
One person who doesn't seem to think there's a race here is Cramer himself. The congressman has no campaign staff, and weirdly even lists himself as his press contact. Cramer's extremely bare-bones campaign does help explain a recent amateurish misstep where he had to pull a TV ad after illegally filming it in a veterans' cemetery. It's hard to see Cramer losing in this conservative state but if he somehow does, we can blame his decision to literally phone his campaign in.
There were two House polls from YouGov for NH-01 and NH-02. However, they contained absurdly small sample sizes: The NH-01 poll consisted of just 160 likely voters, and NH-02 survey had just 162. As Dreaminonempty recently demonstrated, polls with tiny sample sizes tend to bounce around erratically and are essentially useless.
Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AK-Sen The GOP has been hitting Democratic Sen. Mark Begich's record as mayor of Anchorage and in the Senate, and Begich is pushing back. His new spot praises his record in city hall and his bipartisanship. Put Alaska First is also spending another $676,000 for Begich. On the GOP side, the Cooperative of American Physicians is spending $235,000.
• AR-Sen: The NRSC hits Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor on job creation, arguing he's out of touch with the middle class. Also for the GOP, Cooperative of American Physicians spends $383,000 while Crossroads GPS hauls out $438,000.
• CO-Sen: Ending Spending invests another $1.4 million against Democratic Sen. Mark Udall. The NRSC (here and here) also ties Udall to Obama, accusing him of having the wrong priorities: The group just spent $200,000 here. On the Democratic side, the SEIU has two Spanish spots (here and here), while the International Association of Firefighters spends $258,000.
• GA-Sen: Both sides have been committing more resources to this race in recent days, and the GOP aligned Ending Spending is now committing another $1 million. The NRSC also once again ties Democrat Michelle Nunn to Obama. On the other side, EMILY's List continues to argue that Republican David Perdue's company discriminated against women while he was in charge.
• IA-Sen: On the Democratic side, VoteVets praises Democrat Bruce Braley's work for veterans. Braley himself has also been pushing back on the GOP's attempts to caricature him as someone who did nothing during the VA scandal.
For the GOP, the NRSC ties Braley to Obama, while claiming even Obama thinks Braley is too extreme on taxes. The NRA also ties Braley to Michael Bloomberg on guns. Also for Team Red, the Cooperative of American Physicians spends $248,000 while American Heartland PAC spends $355,000.
• KS-Sen: Republican Sen. Pat Roberts continues to tie independent Greg Orman to Obama. This time, just to shake things up, Roberts also goes positive, promoting himself as someone who stands up to Obama. Orman himself highlights his business record, once again portraying himself as a problem solver.
• KY-Sen: Kentuckians for Strong Leadership continues to portray Democrat Alison Grimes as a raging liberal.
• LA-Sen: American Crossroads argues Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu is fine voting for benefits for undocumented immigrants while cutting Medicare Advantage. They also throw in a few jabs at Landrieu's Washington residency, continuing to portray her as someone who has left Louisiana behind. The group just spent $480,000 here.
• NC-Sen: For Team Blue, the DSCC keeps hitting Republican Thom Tillis on women's health. Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan also pushes back on GOP attacks that claim Hagan used stimulus money to help enrich her family, while arguing that Tillis is the one who is unethical.
Speaking of those GOP attacks, the NRSC again hits Hagan on her stimulus vote. The John Bolton SuperPAC (which is exactly what it sounds like) also spends $233,000 for the GOP.
• NH-Sen: Concerned Veterans claims Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is lying about her work on veterans. The NRSC also argues Shaheen has a spending problem.
• SD-Sen: Republican Mike Rounds' new spot stars Sen. John Thune, who offers some pretty generic praise. The NRSC also portrays Democrat Rick Weiland as a reckless liberal.
• AZ-Gov: The RGA continues to go after Democrat Fred DuVal as a tax-lover, and as weak on immigration.
• CO-Gov: The DGA-backed Making Colorado Great has two spots (here and here). The first hits Republican Bob Beauprez as an unethical banker, while the second again hits him on women's health.
• CT-Gov: National Shooting Sports Foundation argues Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy is unreasonably anti-gun. They claim that groups like them support the safe use of guns, and that Malloy is unfairly demonizing them. The ad does not reference the Newtown shooting at all, and the whole thing comes across as more than a little tone deaf. The spot reportedly only has $54,000 behind it.
• FL-Gov: The Florida GOP has two spots (here and here). The first is a Spanish ad starring former Gov. Jeb Bush, while the second praises Republican Gov. Rick Scott for helping fellow veterans. On the other side, NextGen Climate contrasts Democrat Charlie Crist's record on fighting polluters with Scott's, once again accusing Scott of doing the Koch Brother's bidding no matter who gets hurt.
• GA-Gov: The RGA continues a GOP ad campaign that hits Democrat Jason Carter on education. They also throw in jabs at Obamacare, while claiming that Carter has never passed a bill in the state Senate.
• HI-Gov: The DGA-backed Hawaii Forward hits Republican Duke Aiona on education and abortion.
• IL-Gov: In a rare positive ad, Republican Bruce Rauner touts his newspaper endorsements. In a common negative ad, Rauner has a Spanish ad hitting Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn.
• KS-Gov: The RGA goes after Democrat Paul Davis on taxes.
• MA-Gov: The RGA-backed Commonwealth Future PAC praises Republican Charlie Baker as a moderate who supports abortion rights and gun safety. Not the typical ad you'd see from a GOP group, but this is Massachusetts after all.
• ME-Gov: The RGA touts Republican Gov. Paul LePage's jobs record.
• MI-Gov: Republican Gov. Rick Snyder praises his record, saying he's turned the state around. The heavenly choir music in the background is an interesting touch.
• OK-Gov: Democrat Joe Dorman hits Republican Gov. Mary Fallin on education, tying her to the state's controversial superintendent Janet Barresi.
• RI-Gov: For the first time, national Democrats are getting involved in what has been seen as a likely Democratic win. The DGA-backed Alliance for a Better Rhode Island hits Republican Allan Fung's record as mayor of Cranston, arguing that Fung mismanaged a police scandal.
• WI-Gov: On the Democratic side, EMILY's List continues to go after Republican Gov. Scott Walker on abortion, also hitting him for his support on transvaginal ultrasounds. Democrat Mary Burke also argues Walker has done little as governor during the job crisis. Walker himself touts his college tuition freeze, while arguing Burke opposed it.
• AR-02: Crossroads GPS spends $481,000 for the GOP.
• AZ-02: The ads from Democratic Rep. Ron Barber (here and here). The first goes after Republican Martha McSally on abortion rights, and the second is a Spanish spot tying McSally to the tea party on education.
On the GOP side, the Congressional Leadership Fund ties Barber to Pelosi. Interestingly, it argues that his revered predecessor Gabby Giffords was a true independent who had the guts to vote against Pelosi. McSally also goes after Barber on Obamacare.
• AZ-09: Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema touts her work on women's equality.
• CA-07: Congressional Leadership Fund hits Democratic Rep. Ami Bera on Obamacare.
• CA-26: The American Future Fund praises Republican Jeff Gorell as a moderate while arguing Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley is too partisan.
• CT-04: Democratic Rep. Jim Himes.
• FL-02: Sometimes you don't even need to watch the ad to know what it's about. The Congressional Leadership Fund does what basically every GOP group in this race has done, and ties Democrat Gwen Graham to national the national party.
• GA-12: The Congressional Leadership Fund portrays Democratic Rep. John Barrow as and ineffective Obama-Pelosi lapdog.
• IA-04: Republican Rep. Steve King argues that Democratic opponent Jim Mowrer is weak on security.
• IL-13: Democrat Ann Callis.
• LA-06: The GOP-leaning Environmental Defense Action Fund spends $114,000 for Garret Graves, one of the many Republicans running in the November jungle primary.
• MA-06: The pro-Democratic VoteVets contrasts Democrat Seth Moulton with Republican Richard Tisei. They frame this race as between a courageous new leader and a conservative politician. On the GOP side, American Unity PAC praises Tisei as a moderate.
• MI-11: Republican Dave Trott.
• NE-02: Republican Rep. Lee Terry and the NRSC recently made news for portraying Democrat Brad Ashford as weak on crime, airing a pair of controversial spots. Terry is doubling down in his newest ad. He features the Sgt. John Wells, the president of the Omaha Police Officers Association, hitting Ashford for supporting the Good Time Law. Wells argues that Ashford's policies can get people killed by releasing violent criminals out onto the streets. Also for the GOP, Fuels America praises Terry for his support for alternative fuels.
On the other side, Ashford hits Terry's negative ads. Ashford features a quote from the Omaha World Herald vouching for Ashford on public safety.
• NH-01: The Congressional Leadership Fund portrays Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter as a partisan hack.
• NJ-03: Crossroads GPS continues to portray Democrat Aimee Belgard as fiscally irresponsible. The group just spent $543,000 here.
• TX-23: Latino Victory Project hits Republican Will Hurd in a Spanish spot.
• WI-06: Democrat Mark Harris does what so many Democrats nationwide should have done a long time ago (cough, Bruce Braley, cough) and runs an entire ad based on his opponent's crazy statements.
The narrator describes how Republican Glenn Grothman says pre-school causes physiological damage, how he called single parents child abusers, and opposed equal pay legislation. The ad also has the lovely Grothman quote, "Money is more important for men." Harris then appears at the end promoting his work cutting spending and debt.
Harris' fundraising has been weak, and this 53-46 Romney seat is a tough district for Team Blue. Still, Democrats everywhere should take Harris' lesson to heart: If your opponent has a record of saying and doing crazy things, use their antics to your advantage, don't just ignore them or kind of mention them.
• WV-02: Democrat Nick Casey argues Republican Alex Mooney is a fraud. The second half of the spot features Sen. Joe Manchin appearing with Casey and vouching for his conservative credentials.
• DCCC: The Democrats recently announced they were deploying a combined $1.8 million to six five Democratic-held seats: AZ-02; IL-12; IA-01; IA-02; MN-07; and MN-08. We also have new ads in FL-02; FL-26 (here and here); IL-12; IA-01; and NH-02. All except for FL-02 are Democratic-held.
• House Majority PAC: Eight new Democratic ads, with the size of the buy listed in parentheses. House Majority PAC is going up in CA-36 ($85,000); CA-52 ($319,000); FL-18 ($212,000); GA-12 ($137,000); IA-03 ($147,000); MA-06 ($102,000); NH-01 ($103,000); and NH-02 ($272,000). All but IA-03 are Democratic held.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.
