Leading Off:
• KS-Gov: We've officially hit the point in the cycle where campaigns start to get desperate. Republican Gov. Sam Brownback is locked in a close race with Democrat Paul Davis and his campaign is airing a risky new ad aiming to caricature Davis as weak on crime.
The narrator describes how the Carr brothers were caught and prosecuted for multiple murders, and sent to death row. However "liberal judges in Topeka" overturned their death sentences. The spot links the judges to Davis, with the narrator accusing one of them of holding a fundraiser for the Democrat. The spot ends by contrasting the two candidates, arguing that Davis will appoint weak liberal justices, while Brownback will appoint tough judges.
Unsurprisingly, the ad is getting plenty of attention in Kansas. Kansans for Justice, an organization formed by the families of the Carr brothers' victims, put out a statement expressing its displeasure that the case is being politicized, though the group is also very unhappy that the Carrs' sentences were commuted to life in prison.
Ads like this are always unpredictable. If Brownback can make the argument that Davis is weak on crime, it could very well give him a boost. However, if it looks like he's exploiting a terrible tragedy for his own political benefit, it can easily backfire. Indeed, Alaska Democratic Sen. Mark Begich found this out the hard way a few months ago when he ran an ad centered on a murderer, but had to pull it after the victims' family complained. Another endangered Midwestern Republican, Rep. Lee Terry, is also running hard-hitting ads trying to portray his opponent as weak, and it's not yet clear if they're working or not. We'll need to wait and see how voters respond to this very provocative commercial.
Head below the fold for a roundup of ads from races across the county.
Senate:
• AK-Sen: Republican Dan Sullivan highlights his record as state attorney general and at the State Department, while tying Democratic Sen. Mark Begich to Obama. The NRSC also continues to attack Begich's record as mayor of Anchorage and in the Senate. They throw in a pun where they change the word "baggage" to "Begich." Have you picked yourself up off the floor yet, or are you still laughing uncontrollably? On the Democratic side, Patriot Majority spends $111,000.
• AR-Sen: Republican Tom Cotton features an elderly couple blaming Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor for cutting their Medicare.
• CO-Sen: Crossroads GPS spends a hefty $3,036,000. On the Democratic side NextGen Climate continues to tie Republican Cory Gardner to the Kochs, while Democratic Sen. Mark Udall offers some pretty vague platitudes while he drives (seriously, how is filming an ad while driving at all safe?). Fair Share Action also spends $164,000 while the SEIU spends $323,000.
• IA-Sen: Democrat Bruce Braley continues to make his care straight to the camera, arguing that he'll stand up to outsourcers while Republican Joni Ersnt won't.
Ernst herself has a new spot, where she tries to recapture some of the magic of her legendary "Squeal" ad from the primary. Ernst stands in a pig lot and describes a dirty stinking mess- though she's talking about Congress, not the pigs. Also for Team Red, the NRA spends $103,000 while the U.S. Chamber of Commerce spends $271,000.
• KS-Sen: Republican Sen. Pat Roberts goes after independent Greg Orman's business record, accusing him of being involved in sleazy dealings.
• KY-Sen: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell has two spots (here and here). The first features several Democrats saying they're voting for him. The second features several young women accusing Democrat Alison Grimes of not believing that they can succeed without the government. Also on the GOP's side, the Kentucky Opportunity Coalition spends $110,000 while Crossroads GPS hauls out $173,000. On the other side of the aisle, Grimes goes after McConnell on problems at the Brent Spence Bridge.
• LA-Sen: Republican Bill Cassidy continues to tie Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu to Obama, while Americans for Responsible Solutions spends $478,000 for the Democrats.
• MI-Sen: NextGen Climate spends $114,000 for Team Blue.
• MN-Sen: The Alliance for a Better Minnesota spends $485,000 for the Democrats.
• NC-Sen: EMILY's List continues to argue that Republican Thom Tillis wants to make women's healthcare decisions for them. Also for Team Blue, the League of Conservation Voters has announced it will spend $4.2 million on ads, mail, and get-out-the-vote efforts. They have two new spots (here and here) accusing Tillis of being in the pocket of polluters and oil companies. Also on the Democratic side, Americans for Responsible Solutions spends $330,000.
• NH-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spends another $541,000 for Team Red.
• OR-Sen: Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley and Republican Monica Wehby.
• SD-Sen: Mayday PAC hits Republican Mike Rounds on the EB-5 scandal, arguing that he's lying about his involvement. Rounds himself portrays Democrat Rick Weiland as an Obama-loving liberal.
• WV-Sen: Democrat Natalie Tennant continues to link Republican Shelley Moore Capito to Wall Street, claiming that Capito's helping her banker husband get rich. Last time Tennant tried this line of attack Capito forcefully pushed back and argues Tennant was attacking her family.
• DSCC: Democratic expenditures.
• Freedom Partners: Do you enjoy watching Republican ads tying Democratic candidates to Obama? If you do, then Freedom Partners has a treat for you. They're spending a total of $6.5 million on spots for the Senate in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and North Carolina.
Gubernatorial:
• AK-Gov: Republican Gov. Sean Parnell features his wife Sandy praising the governor, while saying he'll tackle the unfolding state National Guard scandal head on. It's unlikely many voters will actually see this spot though. As we recently noted the Alaska airwaves are crammed with ads for the U.S. Senate race, and there isn't much room left for Parnell's commercials.
• AR-Gov: Republican Asa Hutchinson highlights his career as a prosecutor.
• AZ-Gov: Democrat Fred DuVal continues to go after Republican Doug Ducey on education cuts.
• CT-Gov: The DGA-backed Connecticut Forward continues to portray Republican Tom Foley as a vulture capitalist. Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy deploys a similar line of attack.
• FL-Gov: The Florida GOP paints Democrat Charlie Crist as someone with no core values.
• GA-Gov: The Coalition for Georgia's Future praises Republican Gov. Nathan Deal on education.
• IL-Gov: Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn accuses Republican Bruce Rauner for not employing a single African American as a financial professional.
• MA-Gov: Republican Charlie Baker argues that Democrat Martha Coakley has no plans for jobs or welfare reform, but he does. The RGA-backed Commonwealth Future Fund also goes after Coakley, portraying her as corrupt. The RGA apparently likes what they're seeing from the group, since they just gave them another $2,250,000.
• MD-Gov: Republican Larry Hogan has two spots (here and here). Both feature women saying they'll back Hogan, while hitting Democrat Anthony Brown for continuing an unacceptable status quo.
• ME-Gov: The League of Conservation Voters goes after Republican Gov. Paul LePage on brutal budget cuts.
• MI-Gov: Democrat Mark Schauer continues to hit Republican Gov. Rick Snyder's policies that only help the wealthy.
• NE-Gov: Two spots from Democrat Chuck Hassebrook (here and here). The first emphasizes his humble origins, but the second is much more notable.
The narrator describes how violent criminals are getting out of jail due to the Good Time Law. The ad then accuses Republican Pete Ricketts of refusing to do anything to stop it. Hassebrook appears and promises to stop these releases as governor.
In Omaha's 2nd District Republican Lee Terry and the NRCC have been hitting Democrat Brad Ashford over the Good Time Law, and it's notable that Team Blue is trying a similar line of attack. Hassebrook's ad is less inflammatory than the GOP's: He doesn't bring up any specific cases, and the whole spot feels far less personal and hard hitting. Still, it is interesting that Democrats are now the ones trying to use the Good Time Law to their advantage.
• NH-Gov: The RGA portrays Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan as a crazed spender and taxer.
• WI-Gov: Democrat Mary Burke continues to go after Republican Gov. Scott Walker's education cuts, while Wisconsin Conservation argues Walker put the state's drinking water as risk. Walker has two ads (here and here). Both feature Walker praising his jobs record.
House:
• AZ-01: The American Action Network argues that Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick "threw a tantrum" during the government shutdown and voted against border security, keeping the Grand Canyon open, and even veterans services.
Of course what goes unmentioned in this spot is that none of those bills had any chance of passing. The GOP's hope was that they could pressure Democrats into voting to open a few sections of government, so they could keep the rest of it closed with less public backlash. It didn't work last year, but Team Red is hoping this vote will come back to haunt Kirkpatrick now.
• AZ-02: Republican Martha McSally has an over-dramatic narrator reading out attacks against her, with McSally declaring that this is why people dislike politics.
• CA-21: Republican Rep. David Valadeo in English and Spanish.
• CO-06: American Unity PAC spends $218,000 for the GOP.
• CT-Gov: Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty.
• FL-02: For the GOP, the NRA modifies one of its standard ads slightly. On the Democratic side, the NEA spends $126,000.
• FL-18: Center Forward spends $150,000.
• GA-12: Two spots from Democratic Rep. John Barrow (here and here). The first spot has Barrow featuring a gun an ancestor used to stop a lynching, with Barrow contrasting his stance on firearms with national Democrats. The ad is very similar to a memorable 2012 spot he ran during the 2012 campaign. The second ad defends Barrow on immigration, while arguing Republican Rick Allen is weak on enforcement.
Allen's spot features snippets of an Augusta Chronicle editorial praising him as someone who can change Washington.
• IA-03: Democrat Staci Appel continues to hit Republican David Young as a Washington insider.
• IL-10: The DCCC continues to tie Republican Bob Dold(!) to the Tea Party.
• MI-11: Democrat Bobby McKenzie has an uphill climb against wealthy foreclosure lawyer Dave Trott in this Romney 52-47 seat. McKenzie is hoping that Trott's past can be an anvil for the GOP here. His spot dramatizes Trott's company foreclosing an elderly wheelchair bound woman, with men coming to her door in the middle of the night, and dragging her out of her house. The narrator describes how Trott's company evicted on a 101-year old woman, a very ugly and very true story.
• MN-08: The American Action Network portrays Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan as someone who took advantage of Congress' perks, but didn't do anything to help veterans.
• NE-02: Democrat Brad Ashford features an editorial from the Omaha World Herald panning Republican Rep. Lee Terry's ads against him. House Majority PAC also accuses Terry of being desperate: The size of the buy is $106,000.
• NV-04: Crossroads GPS recently announced that they were spending $1 million in what had been a virtually ignored race, and now their first ad is out. It's pretty standard stuff: They accuse Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford of being an Obama drone.
It's not the kind of ad you'd necessarily expect to see in a district that went for Obama 55-44. However, early voting so far has been downright awful for Democrats, and the 4th District isn't looking any better. Unless Team Blue can pick up the pace, we'll likely see a much more conservative electorate out of this suburban Las Vegas district than we saw in 2012, and one that's more open to Crossroads' arguments.
• NY-19: Democrat Sean Eldridge.
• NY-23: Republican Rep. Tom Reed.
• PA-06: Democrat Manan Trivedi.
• PA-08: Independence USA, the super PAC run by former New York City Mayor and current NRA punching bag Michael Bloomberg, spends $174,000 for the GOP.
• TX-23: Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego talks bipartisanship, while portraying Republican Will Hurd as an extremist. Latino Victory Project also spends $180,000 for Team Blue.
• VA-02: Democrat Suzanne Patrick.
• WV-02: Republican Alex Mooney has an Obama impersonator leaving a message on Democrat Nick Casey's answering machine.
• WV-03: Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall goes after Republican Evan Jenkins on the minimum age, mining safety, and Medicare.
• NRCC: New GOP spots in AZ-01; CA-07; CA-52; FL-02; FL-26; GA-12; IA-03; IL-12; MN-07; NY-01; NY-19; and WV-03. Of these 12 seats, 10 are Democratic held. We also have expenditures.
The only real surprise on this list in NY-19. Democrat Sean Eldridge is very wealthy but what few polls we've seen have shown him badly trailing Republican Rep. Chris Gibson. Maybe the NRCC just doesn't want to take the chance that Eldridge will flood the zone with ads in the closing weeks of this contest, or maybe Gibson is more vulnerable than he looks.
