Some very encouraging news out of Alaska:
http://www.nytimes.com/...
Recent polls suggest that Mark Begich, the Democratic senator, has made gains over recent weeks. The new polls, the first to show Mr. Begich ahead in more than a month, add considerable uncertainty to a race in a state that has a history of inaccurate polling. But even if Mr. Begich does not lead, he is most likely within striking distance, especially given the unusually robust Democratic turnout effort that is taking place.
The state fell off the radar over the last few weeks because just about every unsponsored survey was showing Dan Sullivan, the Republican, in the lead. But over the last few days, two Alaska-based pollsters have shown Mr. Begich with a substantial lead.
On Friday, Hellenthal and Associates, a Republican-leaning Alaska-based firm, showed Mr. Begich ahead by a 10-point margin. Mr. Sullivan led by 4.5 points in the last Hellenthal poll, conducted in mid-September.
Equally striking was that the rest of the Hellenthal poll seemed eminently reasonable. Party registration seemed about right, with 33 percent saying they were registered Republicans and 18 percent saying they were Democrats. In 2010, 30 percent were registered Republicans and 15 percent were registered Democrats. The state’s embattled Republican governor, Sean Parnell, led by two points — no worse than other polls, if not better than most. Voters who said they “usually” supported Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 40 to 23.
Then, on Monday evening, Ivan Moore Research showed Mr. Begich ahead by a modest margin. The poll offered two results, one with a loose and one with a tight likely voter screen. Mr. Begich led by seven points among fairly likely voters, and led by eight points among the most likely voters.
Despite these two polls, it would be hard to argue that Mr. Begich has a decisive lead. That’s because Harstad Research, a Democratic firm conducting research for the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC, made an ill-timed decision to release a survey showing Mr. Begich and Mr. Sullivan tied at 44-44, just a few hours before the Hellenthal poll showed Mr. Begich ahead by a large margin.
It is not usually a good sign for a candidate when his own partisan polling doesn’t show him ahead. But at the time it was released, the poll was the best result for Mr. Begich since the last time the Democrats released an Alaska poll, more than a month ago. The implication might be that it’s also the first time that Democrats found themselves in a tie in a month — perhaps another indication of gains for Senator Begich. - New York Times, 10/28/14
Can't say that I'm surprised given that Begich has the better ground game than Dan Sullivan (R. AK):
http://www.salon.com/...
After barely prevailing in his 2008 Senate race against Sen. Ted Stevens, Begich entered the cycle as a top target for the GOP. Until late this summer, Begich maintained a modest polling lead over GOP challenger Dan Sullivan, but the tide turned against the incumbent in August. For nearly three months now, Sullivan has led by roughly four or five points in most polls. While Alaska is notoriously difficult to survey, few analysts in either party have disputed that Sullivan enjoys the momentum in the contest. Begich’s hopes hinged on his much-ballyhooed ground game, one area in which he boasts a clear advantage over Sullivan.
There’s new reason to believe that Begich’s impressive voter outreach efforts may help him hold on, after all. On Friday, a GOP firm released a poll showing Begich with a 10-point lead over Sullivan, a result that almost certainly overstated Begich’s advantage and appeared to be an outlier. But two other polls suggest that Begich is indeed very much still in the game. An Ivan Moore Research poll unveiled on Facebook last night gave Begich an eight-point lead among likely voters, while a Democratic poll released Friday shows the race between Begich and Sullivan deadlocked, with each candidate garnering 44 percent support.
So can Begich pull it off? A Democratic win in Alaska is far more conceivable than many pundits have acknowledged of late. As the New York Times’ Nate Cohn observes, “[b]ecause Alaska’s population is no larger than the average congressional district, a startlingly small numbers of voters are enough to swing control of the Senate. Just 7,500 voters would be enough to overcome a three-point deficit.” - Salon, 10/28/14
I also think the Alaska National Guard scandal is also hurting Sullivan as it is Governor Sean Parnell (R. AK). You can read why here:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
Lets keep Begich's ground game going. Click here to donate and get involved with his campaign:
http://www.markbegich.com/
And click here to donate and get involved with Walker-Mallot ticket:
http://www.walkerforalaska.com/