California's Democratic Attorney General Kamala Harris will run for the U.S. Senate
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• CA-Sen: One of the major questions in this race has been whether state Attorney General Kamala Harris or Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, a fellow Democrat, would run to succeed Sen. Barbara Boxer. On Monday we got our answer: It's Harris.
Newsom began the week by announcing that he would not run the seat. Hours later, multiple sources reported that Harris will kick off her Senate campaign on Tuesday. The two San Franciscans had an implicit agreement that they would not run against one another, and both of their camps spent the weekend weighing their options. Harris is one of the state party's rising stars and her announcement is definitely going to force her would-be opponents to make a decision quickly. We haven't heard the last from Newsom though: He looks set to run for governor in 2018 when incumbent Jerry Brown is termed out.
However, it doesn't look like Harris will have the field to herself. On Monday alone, three more Democrats expressed their interest in the seat. Treasurer John Chiang's team confirmed that he's thinking about a run: While Chiang was just elected to his post in November, he served as controller for the last eight years and he has been touted for higher office for a while. A source close to Secretary of State Alex Padilla also tells the Los Angeles Times that he's not ruling out a Senate bid, but doesn't sound incredibly enthusiastic about the idea. The source notes that Padilla only just won statewide office for the first time last year.
Both Chiang and Padilla were mentioned as candidates even before Boxer made her decision, but we also got a new name on Monday. Sophomore Rep. Eric Swalwell's campaign consultant says he will probably decide by the end of January whether or not to run. Newsom's move seems to have played a part in pushing Swalwell to run: The congressman's inner circle says that they think the 34-year old can better appeal to young voters now that the lieutenant governor is out. Swalwell is also looking whether he can raise the $20 million he thinks he'll need for the primary. Swalwell represents a 68-30 Obama East Bay seat that Democrats won't need to worry about defending.
Plenty of other possible contenders also took steps to run before Monday. On the Democratic side, billionaire Tom Steyer hasn't said anything publicly but he's reportedly only days away from making a decision. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Reps. John Garamendi and Loretta Sanchez, and former Rep. Ellen Tauscher also have made their interest in this seat clear. On the GOP side Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin, Assemblyman Rocky Chavez, and two former state party chairs have made noises about entering the race. Even with Harris running it's going to be a while before things sort themselves out, and there are probably still quite a few dominoes yet to fall in this unpredictable contest.
Senate:
• NV-Sen: Democratic Sen. Harry Reid is raising money and hiring staff for a 2016 re-election campaign, but not everyone is convinced he'll actually run again. Politico reports that plenty of Senate Democrats and even some of his closest allies think he'll call it quits instead. Reid's wife and daughter recently survived serious health problems and Reid himself suffered a major injury only weeks ago. Additionally, there's plenty of unhappiness with the minority leader within the Democratic caucus. With the GOP planning to make him a major target, it's not unreasonable to assume that Reid will decide another grueling campaign just isn't worth it.
Still, Reid seems to be heading for 2016 at maximum warp. It is possible that this is just a bluff: Jon Ralston has speculated that Reid may want to wait until the last possible moment before announcing a retirement in order to help his ally former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto avoid a serious primary challenge. But in all likelihood Reid is at least intending to run for another term, and he wants to prepare early for the expected GOP onslaught.
Gubernatorial:
• MO-Gov, Sen: On Monday, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill announced that she would not run for governor in 2016. Instead, she'll stay in the Senate, where she'll be up for re-election in 2018. McCaskill's decision is a boon to Attorney General Chris Koster, who has been unofficially running for governor for a while. The DGA is also hoping to cement Koster's status as presumptive nominee now that McCaskill has declined to run. The committee released a statement praising the two of them, and made no mention of any other Show Me State Democrats. Of course, no other credible Democrats have expressed much interest in running for this open seat.
Things are also in motion on the Republican side. State Auditor Tom Schweich gave himself a short time frame to decide, saying "I think you'll probably know something by Valentine's Day." Personally I can think of nothing more romantic than heart candies, a nice dinner, and waiting for gubernatorial announcements. Former state House Speaker Catherine Hanaway is already running and is getting more than her share of financial support from wealthy conservative Rex Sinquefield, and it makes sense for Schweich to decide sooner rather than later so he can start raising money. Other potential GOP candidates include 2012 Senate candidate John Brunner, former Navy SEAL Eric Greitens, and Rep. Blaine Leutkemeyer.
House:
• ME-02: National Democrats have made it no secret that they're hoping to recruit Emily Cain for another bid against Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin in this light blue seat. Cain isn't the only Democrat looking running though. House Majority Leader Jeff McCabe said back in December that he's thinking about it, and Michael Shepherd of the Kennebec Journal gives us two new names.
Bangor city Councilors Joe Baldacci and Ben Sprague both say they are being encouraged to jump in, and neither is ruling it out. Sprague was an independent until December but Baldacci comes from a familiar Democratic family: His brother is John Baldacci, who represented this district before serving as governor.
• NH-01: It seems that Republican Rep. Frank Guinta just can't escape the ghosts of campaigns past. Back in 2010 he loaned himself anywhere between $245,000 and $355,000, which would normally be pretty standard stuff. The problem is that Guinta had nowhere near that kind of money available, and few people bought his excuse that he just forgot to disclose a bank account worth between $250,000 and $500,000. And unfortunately for Guinta the FEC is also skeptical, since they just confirmed that they're still investigating him. This story wasn't enough to keep him from winning this swing seat in 2014, but we'll see what unfolds this time around.
• NY-11: Staten Island District Attorney Daniel Donovan essentially won the Republican nomination for the upcoming special election on Saturday, when he earned the endorsement of the Richmond County party. Assemblymember Nicole Malliotakis very much wanted to run for this seat but she saw the writing on the wall and on Monday she announced she would stay out of the contest. There wasn't much of a chance that Malliotakis would be able to get on a different ballot line and cause trouble for Donovan and it's a moot point in any case, with her pledging to back the GOP nominee.
Donovan was making some news of his own on Sunday though:
Staten Island District Attorney Daniel Donovan, who handled the Eric Garner chokehold case, said Sunday he hopes Democrats won't make the case an issue as he runs for a vacated congressional seat.
"I would hope that they would respect the fact that there was a man who died, a mother who lost her son and there's a wife who lost her husband and some children who lost their dad," Donovan said on a radio talk show hosted by former mayoral candidate John Catsimatidis.
Donovan's comments didn't exactly go over well, though it's hard to see them really doing him much damage in this district on their own.
• NY-19: Republican Assemblyman Peter Lopez, whose name appeared on our initial list of candidates who could replace retiring GOP Rep. Chris Gibson, announced on Monday that he is indeed looking at a congressional bid. Lopez seems to be the first to actually declare his interest, but there are a ton of other would-be contenders, and Republicans have a strong bench in this swingy district.
• PA-02: Democratic Rep. Chaka Fattah has been in legal hot water for a while, with prosecutors accusing him of using federal grant money to illegally pay off his campaign debts from his failed 2007 mayoral campaign. Things aren't much better for him now, with the feds now asking for seven years worth of his emails.
Fattah looks unlikely to resign barring a conviction, and that may be a while in the future if it happens at all. This Philadelphia-based seat is as safe as it gets for the blue team, backing Obama 90-9. If there is a special election the area's ward leaders would select the nominee, who would have no problem winning the general. So far no one credible looks like they're gearing up to primary Fattah, though this whole situation is worth keeping an eye on.
• WI-01: On Monday, Republican Rep. Paul Ryan ruled out a White House bid. Ryan just became Ways and Means Committee chairman and looks set to stay in the House for a long time. The Romney/ Ryan ticket won this seat 52-47 in 2012 and Democrats probably would have taken a look at targeting it if Ryan had pursued a White House bid (though he could have run for both offices at once), but it will be tough to find anyone willing to take on the very well-funded incumbent now.
Other Races:
• Philadelphia Mayor: City Council President Darrell Clarke took himself out of the running in the open race for Philadelphia's mayor, instead saying he'll run again for his current job. That may re-open the door for city Controller Alan Butkovitz, who surprised observers by deciding in November not to run, but at the time said that he was deferring to Clarke.
If you're feeling a little underwhelmed by the Democratic primary choices so far in the Philadelphia race — with state Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams a charter school shill and ex-District Attorney Lynne Abraham basically just wanting you to get off her lawn — you're not alone. A Philadelphia magazine article from Sunday (before Clarke's demurral) looks at organized labor's slim pickings here: they'd viewed Clarke as their last hope of coalescing behind one candidate or even electing an ally. Unless Butkovitz decides to reverse course, or city councilor James Kenney gets in, they've got nothing, and some unions (carpenters, Teamsters) have already grudgingly gotten behind Williams.
Grab Bag:
• Votes: 
(click to enlarge)
The year 2015 is off to an interesting start in Congress, with two votes on key topics that let us see what stuff our current Democratic congresscritters are made of.
On the left are Democratic House members who voted for the Republican bill to approve the Keystone XL pipeline.
On the right is the list of House Democrats who voted for another Republican bill, this one full of provisions intended to weaken Dodd-Frank, the Wall Street reform legislation Democrats passed just a few years ago.
And in the middle are the real winners: Democratic members of Congress who voted for both pieces of legislation. David Jarman recently took a look at each of these groups and found some patterns, though there were some surprises.
• WATN: Even Lee Terry can find a place in K-Street's warm embrace. The former Republican representative embarrassing lost his Rommey 53-46 seat in the midst of the red wave, but he still got a cushy post as a "senior adviser on government relations" at a D.C. law firm.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.
