Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal
Leading Off:
• LA-Gov: Even as Gov. Bobby Jindal covets the Republican presidential nomination, plenty of his fellow conservatives at home are sick of him. We don't link to The American Conservative very often, but author Rod Dreher gives us a good read on why so many Pelican State Republicans can't wait for him to be termed-out of office early next year. Jindal's tax cuts may give him a good talking point in Iowa but they've led to brutal cuts that even hardline conservatives are angry with, and forced him to rely on one-time revenue sources over and over again.
Democratic state House Minority Leader John Bel Edwards is hoping that voter's disgust with Jindal's policies will give him an opening in this year's gubernatorial contest, but one Republican may have snatched the anti-Jindal banner first. Sen. David Vitter has been blasting the governor's fiscal stewardship, taking aim at his tax credits and short-term budget fixes in particular. Fellow Republican candidate Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne has not been afraid to criticize Jindal's record either, but he hasn't trained as much righteous fury at the governor's mansion.
In another contest it might be strange to see this kind of Republican in-fighting, but Vitter and Jindal have had a terrible relationship for almost a decade. In 2007, the senator's prostitution scandal came to light for the first time, putting his political career in jeopardy. Then-Rep. Jindal didn't want Vitter's cooties all over his gubernatorial campaign and so he did little to defend the embattled senator, something Vitter never forgave or forgot. Jindal even refused to endorse Vitter's 2010 re-election campaign, even after the senator won re-nomination. But Vitter survived his scandal and easily defeated Democrat Charlie Melancon, and he soon got the chance to exact revenge.
In 2011 Vitter endorsed Jindal's own re-election effort, but he wasn't interested in making peace. Vitter backed his own slate of fiscally conservative legislative candidates; even as Jindal was easily winning a second term, he was left with an uncooperative legislature filled with Vitter allies. These "fiscal hawks" have spent the last few years making Jindal's life a living hell, and have even joined with Democrats to torpedo parts of the governor's agenda.
Now, Vitter is poised to take Jindal's job and cement his status as the undisputed leader of the state Republicans. Vitter's victory this fall isn't assured, but he starts off the campaign with more name recognition than any of his rivals, and with tons of money at his disposal. Vitter currently looks positioned to at least take one of the top-two spots in the October jungle primary and advance to the general election, and he'll be hard to beat in November (though a moderate Republican like Dardenne could make things interesting in a straight fight with Vitter). It was only eight short years ago that Bobby Jindal was the new face of the Republican Party and David Vitter was the scandal-tarred senator whose future looked bleak, but oh how the tables have turned.
Senate:
• CA-Sen: It looks like we haven't seen the last of Tim Donnelly after all. The former tea partying assemblymember ran for governor last year to the dismay of plenty of Republican leaders: They knew that they weren't going to unseat Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown, but they feared that the undisciplined and ultra-conservative Donnelly would be a great foil for California Democrats in downballot races. Prominent national Republicans rallied around the bland but harmless Neel Kashkari and helped him beat Donnelly 19-15 in the top-two primary, and then promptly forgot that Kashkari ever existed.
But Donnelly is contemplating another bid, this time for U.S. Senate. It's unclear how serious he really is: All he said was that he's not ruling it out and is enjoying watching things shape up. If Donnelly became the Republican standard bearer, Democrats would enjoy reminding voters about his history of demonizing undocumented immigrants, which could hurt Team Red's candidates in key Golden State legislative and congressional races. Needless to say, Republican leaders would rather he stayed away this time and let someone more dignified like Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin lose for them instead. Kashkari himself ruled out a Senate campaign on Friday, sparing us another Donnelly-Kashkari clash of the pipsqueaks.
• OH-Sen: Republican Sen. Rob Portman has ruffled some feathers on the far right, and there's been the occasional talk of him receiving a primary challenge. But so far Portman's detractors haven't mustered up a single name, and their task didn't get any easier on Friday when Rep. Jim Jordan endorsed the senator. Jordan is close with tea party groups and his seal of approval should help Portman avoid primary trouble.
House:
• CA-38, 44, L.A. County Board of Supervisors: Rep. Janice Hahn has been considering a 2016 bid for the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, and she won't need to worry about facing a fellow Democratic congresswoman. Linda Sanchez was recently named as another potential candidate for the post, but she has told Hahn that she'll defer to her. It's not clear yet what Sanchez will end up doing if Hahn stays in the House though. Both Sanchez's CA-38 and Hahn's CA-44 are safely blue, but plenty of Democrats are expected to run if one of the seats becomes vacant: The jockeying to succeed Hahn has already begun in fact.
• MS-01: On Friday, Mississippi Republican Rep. Alan Nunnelee died at the age of 56. Nunnelee served in the state legislature from 1994 until he unseated Democratic Rep. Travis Childers in the 2010 Republican landslide. Nunnelee was diagnosed with a brain tumor in April of last year and unfortunately suffered a stroke during the operation to remove it. Nunnelee was recently moved to hospice care after an inoperable tumor was found.
Gov. Phil Bryant has 60 days to schedule a special election to fill Nunnelee's seat, which must take place no sooner than 60 days after the governor issues an order. Bryant may choose to wait to allow the special to coincide with the state's regularly scheduled August primaries.
• NY-11: A month after Republicans tapped Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan as their nominee in the special election to replace disgraced ex-Rep. Mike Grimm, local Democrats are finally getting off the pot. Staten Island Democrats have sent invitations to five prospective candidates and will interview them on Wednesday. And in contrast to the notorious inter-borough rivalry on the GOP side, don't expect any infighting: The head of the Brooklyn Democrats says they "have always been on the same page" as their colleagues across the Narrows.
It's unclear who might actually show up for a sit-down, but the Staten Island Advance says that Democrats have asked ex-Rep. Mike McMahon, City Councilor Vincent Gentile, Assemblyman William Colton, businesswoman Lorie Honor, and activist Robert Holst to come in for a chat. Back in January, one media report suggested that McMahon was no longer interested and had gone to ground; other reports, including the Advance's, describe Gentile as the front-runner.
But whomever Democrats decide on will have a hell of a time: The DCCC has publicly acknowledged that this race is well-nigh hopeless, a conclusion buttressed by their own depressing polling. What we still don't know, though, is when this election will ever take place. Local Republicans have just filed a lawsuit trying to force Gov. Andrew Cuomo to schedule a date, but as we noted recently, a similar suit was unsuccessful against Gov. David Paterson back in 2010.
However, one key difference then is that Paterson did announce a date for the special in upstate New York's old 29th District—it was just much further off than Republicans wanted (and timed to coincide with that fall's general election). Here, Cuomo hasn't even hinted at any possible timing, which might cause a judge to feel differently about this case.
Other Races:
• Indianapolis Mayor: Republican Deputy Mayor Olgen Williams entered the open seat contest last month, but his candidacy never caught fire. Local Republicans quickly galvanized behind veteran and restaurateur Chuck Brewer, and Williams dropped out of the race on Thursday. The filing deadline passed on Friday, and it looks like Brewer should have little trouble winning the May 5 Republican primary against a weak field of opponents.
Former U.S. Attorney Joe Hogsett has been the presumptive Democratic nominee for a long time, and he should be the clear favorite in the Nov. 3 general election. Still, he shouldn't rest on his laurels. Outgoing Republican Mayor Greg Ballard entered the 2007 race against Democratic incumbent Bart Peterson with a similar profile as Brewer, and ended up pulling off a huge upset.
• MS-LG: In this day and age it's very rare for a Southern Republican politician to join the Democrats, but former state Sen. Tim Johnson did just that, and gained national attention for it. Johnson will seek the Democratic nomination to challenge Republican Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves in this year's election.
But Democrats shouldn't get excited about the prospect of Johnson putting this contest on the map. After he left the state Senate, Johnson won a spot on the Madison County Board of Supervisors, and his tenure did not go well. In fact, his relationship with the city of Madison was so awful, the mayor and the entire city council publicly asked for him to resign in 2010. One of their grievances was Johnson's attempt to pass a large tax hike, which Republicans will certainly hammer him over this fall (if they care about him enough to bother).
Johnson didn't resign but instead tried to unseat Commissioner of Transportation Dick Hall in the 2011 Republican primary. That didn't go well either, with him losing 71-29. Johnson does give Democrats at least a non-Some Dude candidate, but it's hard to argue that he sacrificed a promising career in Republican politics when he switched parties.
• Nashville Mayor: There are some crowded races where fundraising reports can easily help you sort out the frontrunners from the soon-to-be also-rans, but this is not one of them. Seven notable candidates are currently running in the Aug. 6 primary, and almost all of them have plenty of money to burn.
Former Metro Nashville School Board Chairman David Fox and real estate executive Bill Freeman both are personally wealthy and are capable of investing big sums of cash into their campaigns. Councilor Megan Barry, attorney Charles Robert Bone, and businesswoman Linda Rebrovick have all been seeking donations, though they've also each kicked in plenty of their own money. Charter school founder Jeremy Kane is the only candidate to depend entirely on donors to finance his campaign.
Freeman currently has the least amount of money in his warchest, but that's only because he hasn't kicked in any of his own cash. Of the other contenders, Kane brings up the rear with $271,000 on hand, while Fox has over $1 million in the bank; Barry, Bone, and Rebrovick each have between $450,000 and $500,000 on hand.
Davidson County Criminal Court Clerk Howard Gentry got into the race after the reporting deadline was over. However, he has the advantage of being the only African American candidate in the race, and he has a good base of support among black voters. Even if Gentry can't match his six opponents in the fundraising department, he should at least be able to advance to the runoff.
• Toledo Mayor: On Friday, Toledo Mayor D. Michael Collins died at the ago of 70. Collins experienced a cardiac arrest while driving at the beginning of the week and was taken off life support after it became clear that he would not recover consciousness.
Collins won this post in 2013 as a surprise. Two prominent Democrats were competing in the non-partisan primary to face incumbent Mike Bell, a conservative independent. However Collins, an underfunded independent city councilor, advanced to the general instead and labor rallied behind him. Collins ended up unseating Bell by a 57-43 margin.
Democratic City Council President Paula Hicks-Hudson became acting mayor following Collins' incapacitation. She will remain in office at least until November, when a special election will be held to fill the last two years of Collins' term. Hicks-Hudson has not decided if she'll run in the special.
Grab Bag:
• Demographics: The Washington Post's Philip Bump is out with an interesting series of maps that, if you're a Republican strategist, by the time you get to the end of them will have you reaching for the antacids. He starts with a map that simply contrasts the ratio of young people (under 25) and old people (over 55) in the nation's congressional districts; young clusters in the southwest, especially California, Utah, and Texas; old clusters especially in Florida but also the northeast and upper Midwest.
However, he then parses out the maps to look at the ratio among whites, and the ratio among Hispanics. Among whites only, in most CDs, old far outweighs young; the main exception is Utah, along with some southern metros like Atlanta and Dallas. Among Hispanics, well, young far outweighs old everywhere, except for a few Appalachian districts where there simply isn't adequate Hispanic data. Given turnout as well as the percentage of Hispanics who are under 18, though, Bump correctly points out: "That's not a big political deal -- yet."
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.