The Oscar race for Best Picture tonight is thought to be one between Alejandro G. Iñárritu's
Birdman and Richard Linklater's
Boyhood. But coverage of this year's Oscars broadcast has been dominated not as much by who is nominated, but
arguments over the historical accuracy of at least four of the nominated movies, as well as who was snubbed—specifically David Oyelowo and director Ava DuVernay of
Selma, and whether they deserved it. The latter has led to big discussions about
diversity and the lack thereof in both the nominations and the Oscar voting pool in the run-up to this event. Recent
anonymous interviews with Oscar voters seem to have exacerbated the situation, since they imply
Selma's Oscars chances may have been affected by the cast
wearing "I can't breathe" T-shirts to the film's New York premiere last December.
On the flip side, American Sniper's nomination has led to much consternation about the film's popularity, and arguments over whether Chris Kyle was a hero, liar, or murderer. To some, Sniper is a triumphant affirmation of red-state views about the "War on Terror" and the invasion of Iraq, while director Clint Eastwood and screenwriter Jason Hall have argued the film is "anti-war" and the story is about the toll war took on Kyle that he either couldn't recognize or wouldn't acknowledge.
Neil Meron and Craig Zadan (best known for Best Picture winner Chicago and the NBC specials, The Sound of Music Live! and Peter Pan Live!) have returned for the third time to produce the Oscars. And if past experience is any indication, the program will be dominated by song and dance numbers. Neil Patrick Harris, who already has hosting the Tony Awards and Emmys on his résumé, has hosting duties for the first time and will perform a musical number written by Frozen songwriting team Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez. Among the presenters will be Channing Tatum, Ben Affleck, Jennifer Aniston, Cate Blanchett, Jessica Chastain, Marion Cotillard, Benedict Cumberbatch, Viola Davis, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Chris Evans, Kevin Hart, John Travolta, Kerry Washington, Naomi Watts, and Oprah Winfrey.
Nominated songs include Common and John Legend doing "Glory" from Selma; Adam Levine will sing "Lost Stars" from Begin Again; Tegan & Sara will join with The Lonely Island for The Lego Movie song, "Everything is Awesome"; Rita Ora will be singing "Grateful" from Beyond the Lights; and Tim McGraw will perform "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" from the documentary, Glen Campbell... I'll Be Me. Lady Gaga will have a "special tribute performance," and Jack Black, Jennifer Hudson, and Anna Kendrick are part of a "very special sequence."
You can see the entire list of nominees by clicking here. But after the jump, a little bit more analysis on the six major categories, with some Las Vegas odds on who will probably win, critics' arguments for who should win, as well as updates on the winners for each and every category as it happens.
Here are the nominees for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and Actress, and Best Supporting Actor and Actress. Beside each nominee are the Vegas odds for their chance of winning.
► Best Picture:
- Birdman - Even money
- Boyhood - 6 to 5
- The Imitation Game - 30 to 1
- The Grand Budapest Hotel - 35 to 1
- American Sniper - 40 to 1
- The Theory of Everything - 75 to 1
- Selma - 100 to 1
- Whiplash - 125 to 1
From 1945 to 2010, the Best Picture winner was the film that received the most votes. When the Academy adjusted the rules for the category to include up to 10 nominees, they also changed the voting procedure to an instant run-off wherein voters rank the films from best to worst. It's possible for the film that wins Best Picture to not be the one a majority of voters put atop their ballots, but instead is a consensus pick having the broadest support overall. Although, according to interviews done by the Los Angeles Times, many Academy members don't fully understand the system, and some of the voter quirks might make the difference if the voting is close between Birdman and Boyhood.
A month ago, the conventional wisdom favored Boyhood, with the film achieving victories at the Golden Globes and recently at the BAFTAs. But Birdman has built considerable momentum after taking the top honor at the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and the Screen Actors Guild awards. No film that's run the table among the guild award events has lost best picture in the past two decades.
Also, Boyhood has encountered a small bit of backlash from some quarters. The film has been highly praised by critics, and lauded for taking an extremely risky idea (i.e., filming a movie at different points over a 12-year period) and making it work. But others have argued the love for Boyhood is based in nostalgia and its "gimmick" and not the substance of the story.
From Peter Travers at
Rolling Stone:
Why am I calling this year's Oscars, on February 22nd, the "Caucasian Consensus," when Selma is one of the eight nominees for Best Picture? Because that landmark film about Martin Luther King Jr.'s 1965 civil-rights march has only one other nomination, for Best Song. Not one person of color appears among the 20 nominees for acting. Apparently, the Academy thought it gave last year when it awarded 12 Years a Slave the gold. The message from white voters? Don't get uppity. So scratch Selma and the other three Best Picture nominees whose directors didn't make the cut. That's you, American Sniper, The Theory of Everything and Whiplash.
OK, Sniper boasts a box office ($300 million and climbing) that pulverizes the presumptive favorite, Boyhood ($25 million), and its other rivals. But Michael Moore and a fat chunk of liberal Hollywood don't cotton to a film that, they think, celebrates a Navy SEAL for a record 160 kills in Iraq. Nonetheless, American Sniper is clearly the people's choice in this race. But please remember, the 6,000 or so Academy voters aren't people. They're industry types invested in using the Oscars to reflect a pumped-up and pompous image of themselves to the globe. That's why comedies rarely win Best Picture. Bad news for The Grand Budapest Hotel. Despite tying Birdman for the most nominations (nine), Hotel will have to settle for a congeniality prize. But, hey, isn't Birdman a comedy? Yeah, but it's edged with disillusion, despair and suicide. That, Hollywood can relate to.
Should Win: Boyhood. Richard Linklater filmed this story of a Texas boy (Ellar Coltrane) growing up over 12 years, from six to 18, with the same cast and the same artistry. The naysayers claim it's a gimmick. They're wrong. It's a classic.
Will Win: The signs point to Birdman. The Producers Guild and the Screen Actors Guild put it on top. Director Alejandro G. Iñárritu's tale of a washed-up actor (Michael Keaton) making a comeback explodes with creativity. The naysayers claim it's style over substance. They're wrong. It's a classic. But Boyhood has my heart, for keeps.
►
Best Achievement in Directing:
- Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Birdman) - 4 to 5
- Richard Linklater (Boyhood) - 11 to 10
- Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel) - 30 to 1
- Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) - 50 to 1
- Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) - 60 to 1
The winner of Best Director is usually a portent of Best Picture, since the director of the film that wins best picture almost always wins this award. Although it's not a given, and especially this year if a split occurs in voting between Birdman and Boyhood.
From A.A. Dowd at the A.V. Club:
Prediction: As usual, this race mirrors Best Picture, putting Boyhood’s Richard Linklater neck-in-neck with Birdman’s Alejandro G. Iñárritu. The latter won the DGA, but the sheer scope of what Linklater attempted (and achieved) with Boyhood may put him on top. It feels like one of those years when AMPAS will split Picture and Director between two films—though they might go the opposite route of what we’re predicting, handing Iñárritu the Oscar for direction and Boyhood the main prize.
Preference: Wes Anderson created a whole world from the ground up, as he always does, with The Grand Budapest Hotel. Richard Linklater, on the other hand, gave us a whole childhood in under three hours. He deserves the Oscar he’ll probably win.
Overlooked: For the first time since the Academy expanded the Best Picture slate past five nominees, a filmmaker has managed to slip into the Best Director lineup despite the fact that his movie is not up for Best Picture. But while we appreciate the sentiment that the best directed films of the year aren’t always the flat-out greatest ones, Bennett Miller’s odd-man-in nomination for Foxcatcher comes at the expense of a more deserving nod for Damien Chazelle, whose tight-as-a-drum work on Whiplash marks him as a thrilling new voice in American cinema.
►
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
- Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) - 1 to 2
- Michael Keaton (Birdman) - 9 to 5
- Bradley Cooper (American Sniper) - 25 to 1
- Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) - 40 to 1
- Steve Carell (Foxcatcher) - 100 to 1
While not exactly predictive, the SAG awards can give you an indication of which way the wind is blowing for the Academy Awards, since actors make up the largest block of Oscar voters (around a quarter of all voters). Since 2005, the Best Actor Oscar has matched the SAG Best Actor winner. This year's SAG Best Actor winner was Eddie Redmayne for his performance as Stephen Hawking.
Redmayne also won this year's BAFTA best actor award. Since 1995, only two times has an actor won both a SAG and BAFTA Best Actor awards, and then lost the Oscar.
From various critics at Variety:
Scott Foundas: Michael Keaton, “Birdman.” It’s the actors who show you all the Herculean effort they put into becoming their characters who routinely get to kiss Oscar on the cheek. This year, that trend is favoring Eddie Redmayne for his technically accomplished if rather soulless performance as Stephen Hawking in “The Theory of Everything.” But my personal vote goes to the magnificent Keaton, whose imploding Broadway debutant Riggan Thomson was the manic engine propelling “Birdman” down its elaborately mirrored hall of art and ego. Keaton’s performance was too casually dismissed in some quarters as a kind of self-portraiture, which is really another way of saying that Keaton is so very good that you never catch him acting.
Justin Chang: Bradley Cooper, “American Sniper.” This race may come down to Eddie Redmayne’s adroit Stephen Hawking impersonation and Michael Keaton’s weightless meta-shenanigans, but if there’s an upset from the sidelines, it’ll deservedly favor Cooper, who turned in by far the most haunting and subtly expressive work in a crowded field. If there’s a reason some of the dismissals of “American Sniper” felt so weirdly blinkered, it’s that all those critics allegedly seeking nuance and political complexity couldn’t see it staring right back at them from Cooper’s war-torn visage — the face of a soldier permanently lost in his own emotional and ideological sandstorm.
►
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
- Julianne Moore (Still Alice) - 1 to 12
- Reese Witherspoon (Wild) - 10 to 1
- Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) - 25 to 1
- Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything) - 60 to 1
- Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night) - 75 to 1
Almost everyone expects Moore to win this one in a walk. She gives an amazing performance as a Columbia professor losing her abilities to early-onset Alzheimer’s. If there were to be an upset in this category, I might bet the longshot in this category. Cotillard has a great performance in Two Days, One Night.
From Nicole Sperling at Entertainment Weekly:
From the very first screenings of Still Alice in September, this race has been Julianne Moore’s to lose. Her performance as a linguistics professor battling early-onset Alzheimer’s is subtle, devastating, beautiful—everything we’ve come to expect from her. She won the Golden Globe and SAG awards, making her a statistical near lock for Oscar victory. And having lost the Academy’s top prize four times before, she is also benefiting from a feeling among voters that she is long overdue. Nothing stands in her way. Not previous Best Actress winner Marion Cotillard, who was a late-breaking entrant for her turn as a laid-off factory employee fighting to save her job in the Belgian film Two Days, One Night. Not Rosamund Pike, so deliciously wicked and complex as a rich girl–turned–spurned wife–turned–conniving revenge-seeker in Gone Girl. Not Felicity Jones, forceful yet tender as Stephen Hawking’s first wife in The Theory of Everything. And not Reese Witherspoon—another previous champ in this category—who so convincingly captured the pain of a woman lost in her own grief in Wild. Get ready to watch Moore claim what’s hers.
►
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
- Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) - 1 to 9
- Emma Stone (Birdman) - 12 to 1
- Meryl Streep (Into the Woods) - 20 to 1
- Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game) - 30 to 1
- Laura Dern (Wild) - 35 to 1
Everyone expects Arquette to win this category, since she puts in a solid performance that conveyed realism. And the circumstances of producing Boyhood over the course of 12 years figures in as well, since not only does the character's relationship to her family change and go through tumults, but we watch Arquette physically change with it and use it for the film. If anyone has a chance of taking the award from Arquette, it will be Stone, who might be helped by the momentum Birdman has received of late.
From Scott Feinberg and Todd McCarthy at The Hollywood Reporter:
As in the best actress category, I was not lost in admiration for any of these performances. But who brought the most zing and unpredictability to the film in which she appeared? Emma Stone. I have little doubt she'll play more complex roles than this, but every scene of Birdman that she's in has a little something extra. SHOULD WIN: EMMA STONE (BIRDMAN)
Everyone loves a feel-good story, and Patricia Arquette certainly is one. A sexy star in her youth, she had fewer opportunities as she reached middle age—but unlike contemporaries, she had an ace in the hole: a project she began working on in 2002 that features her best work yet. She has swept the walk-up awards and stands as the prohibitive favorite. WILL WIN: PATRICIA ARQUETTE (BOYHOOD)
►
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
- J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) - 1 to 9
- Edward Norton (Birdman) - 12 to 1
- Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher) - 18 to 1
- Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) - 35 to 1
- Robert Duvall (The Judge) - 60 to 1
This is probably the safest bet of any of the categories. Simmons is the closest thing there is to a lock it for his music teacher from hell in Whiplash. I would guess most people know him as the guy from the Farmers Insurance ads and J. Jonah Jameson in the Sam Raimi Spider-Man movies, but those of us who remember his performance on HBO's Oz as Vernon Schillinger know Simmons can do scary and intimidating. And what makes Simmons great in Whiplash is that his performance never goes over the top. In other hands, I could see the role being a mess and not as interesting.
From Oliver Littleton at Indiewire:
Will Win: J.K. Simmons, who’s won EVERYTHING in the run-up, and as a veteran hard-working character actor type finally in the limelight in a movie that people love, with a killer, career-defining role, there’s too much in the ledger to suggest anything else. His name’s already carved on the statue.
Could Win: Edward Norton. Sure, he’s playing Edward Norton, but he’s doing it really well, and after a few years in the semi-wilderness (his Wes Anderson collaborations aside), it was a great reminder of his immense talent.
Dark Horse: I can’t emphasize enough that Simmons will win this. Ethan Hawke’s likely getting the figurative bronze here, but I suppose that the best reason for an upset would be a career-achievement vote for Robert Duvall, the oldest ever male acting nominee. In a movie even slightly better than “The Judge,” he might have actually had a shot.
Should Win: I was delighted to see Mark Ruffalo’s subtle, understated “Foxcatcher” work nominated, but who am I kidding? J.K. Simmons.
And this year's winners are:
- Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
- Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel (Milena Canonero)
- Makeup and Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel (Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier)
- Foreign Language Film: Ida (Poland; Directed by Pawel Pawlikowski)
- Best Live Action Short Film: The Phone Call (Mat Kirkby and James Lucas)
- Best Documentary - Short Subject: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 (Ellen Goosenberg Kent and Dana Perry)
- Sound Mixing: Whiplash (Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley)
- Sound Editing: American Sniper (Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman)
- Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
- Visual Effects: Interstellar (Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher)
- Short Film - Animated: Feast (Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed)
- Best Animated Feature Film: Big Hero 6 (Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli)
- Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel - Adam Stockhausen (Production Design); Anna Pinnock (Set Decoration)
- Cinematography: Birdman (Emmanuel Lubezki)
- Film Editing: Whiplash (Tom Cross)
- Best Documentary - Feature: CitizenFour (Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy and Dirk Wilutzky)
- Music - Original Song: "Glory" from Selma (Music and Lyric by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn)
- Music - Original Score: The Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexandre Desplat)
- Original Screenplay: Birdman (Written by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo)
- Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game (Written by Graham Moore)
- Best Director: Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Birdman)
- Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
- Best Actress: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
- Best Picture: Birdman