Leading Off:
• MD-Sen, 04: On Tuesday, Rep. Donna Edwards officially kicked off her bid for the Democratic nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Barbara Mikulski. Edwards will face at least fellow Rep. Chris Van Hollen in the primary, but as you can see from dreaminonempty's visual guide above, a host of other Democratic politicians are thinking about jumping in as well. Edwards is the most liberal member of Maryland's House delegation and several national progressive groups are excited about her. But Edwards' first task will be to prove she can bring in enough money to compete with Van Hollen, who has a reputation as an excellent fundraiser.
Former Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, the party's 2014 gubernatorial nominee, has been looking at a Senate run, but he looks all-but-certain to defer to Edwards. Brown quickly put out a statement praising the congresswoman as "a leading voice of opposition to the extreme agenda of the Republicans in Congress," which is not something you say about someone you're thinking about running against. And sure enough, John Fritze of the Baltimore Sun tells us that Brown is considering seeking Edwards' safely blue 4th District, centered around Prince George's County in the D.C. suburbs.
Regardless of what Brown does, we can expect a crowded primary in MD-04. The Sun reports that former Prince George's County State's Attorney Glenn Ivey is likely to run here. Ivey actually tried to unseat Edwards in the 2012 primary, but dropped out just before the filing deadline after he decided that his campaign wasn't going anywhere. Ivey should have a better shot in an open seat race than he would have against an uncontroversial incumbent. This wouldn't be the first time the Ivey family has come into conflict with Brown: His wife, former Del. Jolene Ivey, was Doug Gansler's running mate during the 2014 gubernatorial primary.
There are several other Prince George's County Democrats who are going to look at this seat. The National Journal's Kimberly Railey great mentions county Councilors Derrick Davis and Andrea Harrison; Dels. Dereck Davis, Joseline Peña-Melnyk, and Jay Walker; and state Sen. C. Anthony Muse. Muse ran against Sen. Ben Cardin during the 2012 primary and lost 74-16 statewide. That year, Muse was also one of the most ardent opponents of same-sex marriage in the Democratic legislative caucus, and it would be a cruel irony if he took Edwards' seat.
Alexis Levinson at Roll Call gives us a few other potential names. Del. Michael Vaughn confirmed that he's looking at this seat, and former Del. Aisha Braveboy (who came in third in the 2014 attorney general primary) said back in January that she'd think about the House seat if it opened up. Some other Democrats who could make the race are current county State's Attorney Angela Alsobrooks and former county Councilor Ingrid Turner.
Senate:
• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio is set to announce if he'll seek re-election or the presidency sometime before our sun burns out, and his fellow Republicans are already positioning themselves for his likely open seat. On Monday, Rep. Ron DeSantis told The Hugh Hewitt Show that he's thinking about it, the first time he's shown any public interest in this seat.
DeSantis was somewhat of a minor celebrity in conservative circles before his 2012 election and he was a favorite of outside conservative groups like the Club for Growth during his first run for office, so it sounds like he has the connections to make an impact. State Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater has already met with the NRSC about a possible bid, and there are tons of other Republicans who could seek this seat if Rubio bails. DeSantis' 6th District, which includes coastal communities like Saint Augustine and Daytona Beach, is reliably red at 58-41 Romney.
Democrats are expected to target this Senate seat regardless of what Rubio does, but a new poll from Mason-Dixon gives the GOP a clear lead. The survey tests Democratic Reps. Patrick Murphy and Debbie Wasserman Schultz against Rubio and Atwater, and finds that Atwater's 45-35 edge against Wasserman Schultz is the closest matchup. Wasserman Schultz trails Rubio 53-36, while Murphy loses to Atwater and Rubio 46-32 and 50-38 respectively.
Needless to say, it's difficult to accept that the GOP has such a massive edge in a light-red state this far out. Mason-Dixon doesn't have the best reputation, badly botching several 2012 contests (Steve Singiser rated them as the cycle's third-worst pollster). The group only released a few surveys in 2014, and we've collected their last poll for each race from Oct. 1 on:
• MN-Gov: Mason-Dixon: Dayton (D) 45-38; Actual: Dayton (D): 50-45; error +2 D
• MN-Sen: Mason-Dixon: Franken (D) 48-39; actual: Franken (D) 53-43; error +1 R
• SD-Gov: Mason-Dixon: Daugaard (R) 62-26; actual: Daugaard (R) 70-25; error +9 D
• SD-Sen: Mason-Dixon: Rounds (R) 42-33-13; actual: Rounds (R) 50-30-17; error +11 D
• WY-Gov: Mason-Dixon: Mead (R) 53-28; actual: Mead (R) 59-27; error +7 D
It's not much of a sample size, but Mason-Dixon was either dead on or overestimated
Democrats (though pretty much everyone else did too). It's too early to see if the group worked out the problems that plagued them in 2012, or if they're once again lowballing Team Blue. Still, it's tough to believe that Murphy, who has demonstrated great political instincts, would be seriously looking at this race if he were getting back numbers anywhere near as bad as these.
• OH-Sen: Establishment Democrats have moved from trying to gently ease Cincinnati City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld out of Ohio's Senate race and are now hoping to shove him off the Ted Strickland Express: On Tuesday, the DSCC announced in no uncertain terms that it's endorsing Strickland in the fight to defeat freshman GOP Sen. Rob Portman. But the move predictably did not impress Sittenfeld, who responded with a lite version of the usual "D.C. insiders are trying to handpick their preferred candidate" variety of loserspeak; said Sittenfeld: "The endorsements that matter most are the ones from Ohioans."
Now that Sittenfeld has made it plain he wants to take on the entire party apparatus, we have to start wondering about the end-game here—or perhaps the mid-game. First quarter fundraising reports are due a little over a month from now, on April 15. Sittenfeld claimed to raise a quick $500,000 shortly after entering the race, but there's no way to verify that until we see his FEC filings. But assuming Sittenfeld's talking about actual money and not mere pledges, if Strickland doesn't wallop him on Tax Day, that'll give Sittenfeld more of an excuse to stay in the race. If the former governor can overwhelm the young upstart, though, then Sittenfeld might wind up just fading into irrelevance.
Gubernatorial:
• LA-Gov, LG: We have our first new gubernatorial poll here in a while, but it doesn't show anything new. The GOP pollster Triumph Campaigns, who says they're polling independently, indicates that Republican Sen. David Vitter and Democratic state Rep. John Bel Edwards are each positioned to advance to the November runoff. Vitter leads Edwards 35-33, with GOP Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne far back at 15, and Republican Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle at just 7.
Edwards hasn't attracted a lot of excitement on the Democratic side, and it still looks possible that New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu will enter the race. However, the state AFL-CIO has gotten tired of waiting for Landrieu, and they've thrown their backing behind Edwards.
Triumph also takes a look at the lieutenant governor race, which has turned into a surprisingly exciting contest. Unsurprisingly, Democratic East Baton Rouge Mayor-President Kip Holden takes first with 33 percent, but it's a close battle for second. Plaquemines Parish President and 2011 candidate Billy Nungesser has a small 23-20 lead over fellow Republican and Jefferson Parish President John Young. State Sen. Elbert Guillory's high-profile switch to the GOP two years ago doesn't seem to have resonated with voters, since he's at just 2. Over at the Gambit, Clancy DuBos goes into more detail about each contender.
House:
• CA-44: Democratic state Sen. Isadore Hall currently has the field to himself in this safely blue seat, and no potential opponents have made any real moves to run against him yet. Hall also recently picked up the endorsement of former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, though Villaraigosa's move might do more to help his likely 2018 gubernatorial bid than Hall's campaign.
• IA-01: I guess freshman Republican Rep. Rod Blum won't be receiving many "World's Best Boss" mugs. Jack Melton, who was Blum's field director during his upset 2014 win, announced on Monday that he will oppose the congressman as an independent. Kind of weirdly, Melton says he'd rather be working for one of Blum's Democratic foes, but none of them will take him. Blum has a hard enough task winning again in an eastern Iowa seat Obama carried 56-43, and this kind of drama isn't going to help things.
Other Races:
• Chicago Mayor: In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death, taxes, and Rahm Emanuel raising a ton of money (ok, I guess we can throw in some other Rahm-related things). The mayor is locked in a tough April 7 runoff with Cook County Commissioner Jesus "Chuy" Garcia, but his allied PAC just took in $1.3 million in only three days, thanks to some big donors. By comparison, Garcia raised $1.3 million during the entire primary campaign. There's only so much ads can do to move the needle and eventually we'll hit diminishing returns territory, but it's a reminder that Rahm can never be counted out.
• VA State Senate: Republicans only hold a 21-19 majority in the state Senate, and Democrats need to net just one seat this November to retake the chamber (Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam would break the tie in their favor). But as we've noted before, that's not going to be easy. The Richmond Times-Dispatch's Jim Nolan analyzes the state of play, and looks at both sides' targets.
We've included Stephen Wolf's interactive map of the state Senate above: You can find the rest of his maps here. The two light red seats are districts that Obama carried but are held by a GOP (there are no Romney seats in Democratic hands anymore).
The Democrats' main priority is SD-10, where Republican John Watkins is retiring. Obama won this metro Richmond seat by a narrow 50-48 margin, and fellow Democrat Terry McAuliffe carried it 47-42 in the 2013 gubernatorial race. Frank Wagner holds the only other Obama-Republican seat, a Hampton Roads district that the president won by a 0.35 percent margin, and that Republican Ken Cuccinelli also narrowly took.
Team Blue is going after four Romney seats, though they won't be easy pickups at all. The bluest is SD-17, based around Spotsylvania. Romney only carried this seat by a 0.46 percent margin, though Cuccinelli took it 49-44. Freshman Republican Bryce Reeves unseated a Democratic incumbent by a narrow margin four years ago, so it makes sense to target him at least.
There are a few other light red seats Democrats are looking at. One is Northern Virginia's SD-13, where Romney won 51-48. The district is held by Dick Black (who briefly ran for VA-10 last cycle), a legislator with a well-earned reputation for extremism. While Black's flaws may give Democrats an opening, the party tried emphasizing his views in 2011, only to see Black romp to a 57-43 win. We also have SD-20 around Danville, where Romney won 52-48 and freshman Bill Stanley only prevailed 51-49 in 2011. Finally, Democrats are looking at Virginia Beach's SD-08, an open seat which Romney took 53-46. While on paper all these seats could be competitive, poor off-year Democratic turnout is a huge concern.
The GOP has its own targets in mind. Their biggest priority is the open SD-29 around Manassas. While it looks solidly blue at 64-35 Obama and 57-39 McAuliffe, both parties are taking this contest very seriously. Team Red also has their sights on Lynwood Lewis, who won a 2014 special election by just 11 votes in a Norfolk-based seat Obama carried 57-42. John Edwards (no, not that John Edwards) in Roanoke's SD-21 is also defending a 54-44 Obama seat. Finally, the open SD-36 in Northern Virginia is a reach target at Obama 65-34.
Democrats will need a lot to go right, and have very little room for error. However, McAuliffe is reportedly getting involved in fundraising, which could go a long way in low-turnout contests. All in all, Nov, 3 should be an exciting election night here.
Grab Bag:
• Michigan: After dying without a burial late last year, a plan to split Michigan's electoral votes just got reanimated in the GOP-held legislature. The scheme would award one electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district, while two would go to whomever carried the state overall. Thanks to a fiendish Republican gerrymander, had this system been in place, Mitt Romney would have taken nine electoral votes to Barack Obama's seven, because he won nine districts, even as Obama was carrying the state by a 54-45 margin.
So it might seem as though Republicans know exactly what they're doing here: The state's reddest district went for Romney by 13; the least-blue district Obama won went for the president by 15 points. That means Democratic voters are packed into just five districts while Republicans are spread much more evenly through the remaining nine. But a similar plan crashed and burned in Pennsylvania a few years ago, in large part because congressional Republicans in swingish districts were terrified of the Obama machine fighting for every inch of Keystone turf.
And indeed, the GOP would be playing a dangerous game in Michigan, too. In 2008, Obama captured 13 of the state's 15 seats, many by small margins. Should Democrats have a similar year in 2016, the party's nominee could very well drag downballot compatriots over the line and knock out Republicans like Tim Walberg and Dave Trott, or even Fred Upton. Guys like that probably won't like this electoral vote-splitting scheme one bit, so there's every chance it'll wind up just like Pennsylvania's.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty
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