New South Wales (Australia) will be holding a state election today, the 28th of March, to decide the make-up of its parliament for the next 4 years. Currently New South Wales is governed by the centre-right Liberal party and the rural National Party. The opposition is the centre-left Labor party.
The government currently commands a 61-23 majority in the 93 seat Legislative Assembly. At the previous state election in 2011 the Liberals and Nationals had returned 69 representatives but a lengthy series of corruption scandals caused 8 MLAs (Members of the Legislative Assembly) to resign from the Liberal party. Six of these have remained in parliament as independent MLAs but most are not standing at the election and none are regarded any chance to win reelection. Two, in Newcastle and Charlestown, resigned altogether and their seats are now held by Labor after by-election (special election) wins. In Miranda a Liberal MLA resigned for non scandalous reasons and Miranda was also won by Labor in a by-election. Finally the Nationals won a by-election in Northern Tablelands after the incumbent Independent resigned over... corruption.
NESWEM (NEw South Wales Electoral Model) is largely based off of and builds on Venom (Victorian Electoral NOminative Model) and my Federal model. Changes are mostly small tweaks to adjust for variance in variance between rural and urban divisions (districts). Like previous models NEWSEM takes into consideration the prior voting history of each electorate, incumbent strength (where applicable), and public polling.
Voting in New South Wales is compulsory and uses a optional preferential ballot (this means that in certain seats the way parties direct their supporters to allocate their preferences will be crucial) in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly.
Tables in this diary are colour coded. Shades of red reflect Labor predictions, shades of blue represent Liberal predictions, Nationals predictions are dark green, Greens predictions are light green, Independent predictions are grey. The percentages indicate the overall percentage of simulated outcomes where either the Liberal or National party wins the seat. The second column is the median two-party preferred result with the Liberal/National percentage first, that is Liberal/National-Labor.
While there are currently no rural Independents in the New South Wales parliament, despite a long tradition, there is a strong possibility of the Nationals losing rural seats due to perceived National support of coal seam gas extraction particularly in the northern parts of the state. The seat in particular danger from an Independent is Tamworth. Lismore, Ballina, and Tweed are in more danger than the model suggests from Labor and/or the Greens. The Independents in the seats of Sydney and Lake Macquarie are both likely to win reelection and could support either a Liberal or Labor government.
The Greens could quite possibly, polling is non-existent, win Balmain, which they currently hold, and Newtown, which they nominally hold (that is to say if every voter in the division of Newtown votes the same way as they did in 2011 the Greens would win Newtown), Summer Hill is an outside chance if everything had gone right. The Greens are also very strong in Lismore and Ballina and have a chance of winning their first state seat outside of a capital city. The Greens would almost certainly support a Labor government if the later didn't reach 45 seats themselves.
NESWEM currently projects the Liberals and Nationals to combine to win 57 seats. However it is more likely than not that at least one of Tamworth, Lismore, and Ballina will be lost and 55 is more realistic target for the Government. With only 47 needed to form government this should be sufficient to see the current Government returned for a second term.
