Departing Senate Leader Harry Reid
Despite spending the last few months saying he would run for re-election, Democratic Sen. Harry Reid announced on Friday that he
would not be on the ballot in 2016. Nevada was already emerging as a major battleground for control of the Senate, and this move won't change that.
It's unclear if Reid's departure will help or hurt his party's chances at holding this seat. On the one hand, Reid has been quite unpopular for years, and the GOP was looking forward to portraying him as a creature of Washington who had lost touch with his home state. However, even Reid's enemies conceded that he was a very tough campaigner and that his seniority was an asset to the state. For better or for worse, the new Democratic nominee will have a very different profile than Reid.
Democrats have done well in the Silver State during the last two presidential elections, but neither party can take anything for granted in what is still a swing state. Reid has no obvious Democratic successor, but Team Blue has a few potential contenders. Rep. Dina Titus quickly announced that she would give "serious thought" toward running. Titus won a tough House race in 2008 and almost hung on during the 2010 GOP wave, so she can definitely make this competitive. (She returned to the House in a new seat in 2012.) But there are a few other Democrats worth keeping an eye on.
Former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto is close to Reid, and his support could make a real difference in a primary. Former Secretary of State Ross Miller may be interested, though he's had his eyes on the governorship for a while. Ross lost a 2014 race for attorney general, but his defeat was due more to poor Democratic turnout than anything he did wrong. Reid's son former Clark County Commissioner and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Rory Reid has also been mentioned, though his double-digit statewide defeat doesn't inspire much confidence. One name we can rule out is 2012 nominee Shelley Berkley, who very quickly said no to a comeback bid.
Several Republicans were already scouting out this contest even before Reid's announcement. Las Vegas Councilor Bob Beers has been running for a while, though he hasn't generated much excitement from national Republicans. State Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson has been preparing for a campaign, though his moderate reputation could be a liability in a primary. Former Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki has been talking about a bid, though he he's also interested in the governorship.
Some other names to keep an eye on are state Sen. Greg Brower; newly elected Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske; Heidi Gansert, a former chief of staff to popular Gov. Brian Sandoval; Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison; state Controller Ron Knecht; state Attorney General Adam Laxalt; and state Treasurer Dan Schwartz. Reps. Mark Amodei, Joe Heck, and Cresent Hardy ruled out bids against Reid, but they may be having second thoughts now. Heck in particular is a very tough campaigner, and national Republicans would love it if he changed his mind and ran. The GOP dream candidate is Sandoval, but he's thumbed his nose at the idea of serving in the Senate.
This is going to be a very exciting race in a highly competitive state, and it's going to take a while for things to sort themselves out on both sides. Republicans will be excited at the prospect of an open seat, while Democrats will be glad they're playing defense in a presidential year. This race could definitely go either way, and we'll be watching all the developments here at Daily Kos Elections.
9:29 AM PT: That was quick: Reid has already endorsed Catherine Cortez Masto to succeed him.