Texas Democrat Pete Gallego
Leading Off:
• TX-23: On Thursday, former Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego announced that he would seek a rematch with freshman Republican Will Hurd. While the DCCC began recruiting Gallego almost immediately after his 2014 defeat, his comeback bid was no sure thing.
While the GOP will mock Gallego as a retread, his decision is good news for Team Blue. The party doesn't have a great bench in this West Texas seat, which stretches from the El Paso area to San Antonio. Gallego is also a very tough campaigner. He unseated Republican incumbent Quico Canseco 50-46 as Romney was taking the seat 51-48, and only lost to Hurd 50-48 in the midst of the GOP wave.
Hurd knows that he's going to have to work very hard to hold this light-red seat, especially since Democratic turnout is sure to be better in 2016 than it was in 2014. But the Republican quickly announced that he had raised $500,000 during the first quarter of the year, a very solid sum for this point in the cycle and a sign that he's not going to be easy to dislodge. Democrats need to win seats like this to have any shot at retaking the House anytime soon, and both parties are expected to fight hard here.
1Q Fundraising:
• FL-Sen: Patrick Murphy (D): $1.25 million raised (incl. $750,000 since announcing on March 23), $1.6 million cash-on-hand
• IL-Sen: Mark Kirk (R-inc): $1 million raised
• MD-Sen: Chris Van Hollen (D): $1.2 million raised (incl. $1 mil since announcing four weeks ago), $2.5 million cash-on-hand
• OH-Sen: Rob Portman (R-inc): $3 million raised, $8 million cash-on-hand
• WI-Sen: Ron Johnson (R-inc): $1.2 million raised
Gubernatorial:
• CA-Gov, Sen: Back in January, former state Controller and 2006 gubernatorial candidate Steve Westly's name surfaced as a possible contender for Barbara Boxer's open Senate seat. Westly didn't go for it, but the wealthy businessman and Obama mega-donor is planning to pick up where he left off a decade ago. San Jose Inside reports that Westly told a group of potential donors that he will run for governor in 2018 when Gov. Jerry Brown is termed out, though he won't make an announcement until September. Westly's spokesman confirmed the meeting but unsurprisingly, he did not say that Westly had already decided on a gubernatorial bid, only that "[h]e will make a decision later this year" on a 2018 statewide run.
Ordinarily, it would be a bit strange to see someone finalize his or her plans so early even in California, but this isn't a normal race. Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom kicked off his gubernatorial campaign earlier this year and has been raising money, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is likely to run as well. There are also plenty of other Golden State Democrats who might seek this seat. While Attorney General Kamala Harris was able to scare most of her potential rivals out of the Senate contest, so far it doesn't look like anyone has the stature to clear the field in 2018. If Sen. Dianne Feinstein retires in 2018, the race to fill her seat should divert some potential gubernatorial candidates. But we very well could see a massive Democratic pile-up here, and Westly's smart to prepare early.
• KY-Gov: Former Louisville Councilor Hal Heiner has been dominating the airwaves ahead of the May 19 GOP primary, with state Agriculture Commissioner James Comer playing catch up. Tea partying businessman Matt Bevin is now joining them on television with his first spot, though there's no word on the size of the buy. The spot features his family predictably saying nice things about him, though there is one cute moment where his daughter declares that "he's a conservative... wait, did someone already say that?" (Yes).
What little recent polling we've seen has shown Heiner far ahead of Comer and Bevin (and really far ahead of former state Supreme Court Justice Will Scott), and Comer's team hasn't exactly done a convincing job pushing back. Comer himself dabbled in some loser-speak a few days ago:
"I don't think you can buy this election. Money and TV ads don't win elections, votes win elections. I'm a candidate that's focused on the middle class and looking to create new options for all Kentuckians. We're going to win this election because we have real people working hard on the ground every day."
It's not as bad as "the only poll that matters is on Election Day," but it's not exactly a sign of strength either. However, one pro-Comer super PAC has decided that money and TV ads
do win elections. Kentuckians for Growth, Opportunity and Prosperity will
spend between $450,000 to $475,000 on a new ad (which is not yet online) in support of the commissioner. It will first air during the NCAA championship game so we can expect a huge audience to see it, especially if the Wildcats are playing. The commercial is to continue until April 27.
• LA-Gov, Sen: On Wednesday, Rep. Charles Boustany joined Lafayette City-Parish President Joey Durel in endorsing their fellow Republican Sen. David Vitter in this year's gubernatorial contest. While Vitter will appreciate any help Boustany can offer in Southwestern Louisiana, an area where intra-party rival Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle needs to do well in to have any hope of beating Vitter, Boustany's move may be more beneficial to him than to the senator. If Vitter wins, he'll need to appoint someone to his Senate seat, and Boustany may very well be interested. Rep. John Fleming is already backing Vitter, but unlike Boustany, he's been publicly coveting the seat.
• ME-Gov: It's far too early to know who will run in the 2018 open-seat race here, but one prominent independent will not be on the ballot next time around. Eliot Cutler recently took a job with the University of Maine, and made it clear that he's done with elected office, saying that he's "taken a vow of abstinence."
Cutler ran for governor against Republican Paul LePage in both 2010 and 2014, and came very close to victory the first time around. However, last year he threatened to take away enough left-wing voters to cost Democrat Mike Michaud a win. In the end LePage won 48-43, with Cutler taking 8: While Michaud would have made up some ground if the independent weren't on the ballot, it's unlikely that Cutler's voters would have supported the Democrat by the overwhelming margin that Michaud needed.
House:
• IL-10: Despite some early cold feet, former Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider has looked likely to run against Republican incumbent Bob Dold! for a while, and he made his decision official on Thursday. Schneider kicked off his campaign with the endorsement of 25-local politicians, including Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle and five current House members.
Schneider will need to get past Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering in the primary before he gets his third match with Dold, and while she doesn't have as much name recognition or establishment support, it doesn't sound like she'll be a pushover. Rotering's camp announced that she raised $319,000 for the first quarter of the race, and is self-funding another $200,000. Schneider is wealthy and is a good fundraiser in his own right so money won't be an issue for him though.
While Obama carried this suburban seat 58-41, the area still supports moderate-sounding Republicans like Dold. Dold won't need to worry about money either: His campaign announced it has brought in $600,000 in the last three months.
• IL-18: State Sen. Darin LaHood currently faces no serious Republican primary opposition in the special election to replace Aaron Schock, and he's hoping to keep it that way. LaHood has announced that he's raised $210,000 since he got into the race in mid-March, and the state's entire Republican congressional delegation will host a fundraiser for him in April.
• TN-04: Republican Rep. Scott DesJarlais may have defied the odds last year when he narrowly won renomination after being left for dead, but his miraculous victory isn't scaring off one ambitious candidate. On Thursday, former Romney aide and real estate attorney Grant Starrett announced that he would oppose DesJarlais in this safely red seat.
DesJarlais, a former practicing physician, is vulnerable because of news that he had affairs with multiple patients and tried to convince at least one to have an abortion, but it's unclear how Starrett will address this. Starrett kicked off his campaign claiming DesJarlais' "voting record in Washington simply doesn't match his rhetoric in the district," which is pretty weak stuff, though he mentioned that the incumbent wasn't endorsed by National Right to Life.
Starrett should be able to raise money, but he has two potential problems. DesJarlais' scandal broke in late 2012, so it will be very old news by the time primary voters go to the polls in August of 2016. State Sen. Jim Tracy, who came close to beating the congressman last year, is also talking about running again. Tennessee has no primary runoff so if both Starrett and Tracy are in, they could very well split the anti-DesJarlais vote enough to secure him another term.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Taniel.