Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel was re-elected on Tuesday
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• Chicago Mayor: On Tuesday, voters made their selection in Chicago's mayoral runoff, and as the polls predicted, incumbent Rahm Emanuel won an easy 56-44 victory over Cook County Commissioner Jesus "Chuy" Garcia.
Back in the first round of voting in February, Rahm took a shockingly low 45 percent of the vote, and Garcia appeared well-positioned to capitalize on the mayor's unpopularity. The city's high crime rate, combined with a perception that the mayor's policies favored the rich at the expense of everyone else, had left Emanuel unpopular, and he'd been polling poorly for the better part of a year.
Following the initial balloting, Rahm also earned some bad headlines after the city's bond ratings were downgraded, and he allegedly screamed at mental health activists who'd objected to his funding cuts. However, even in his weakened state, Rahm was not going to be easy to beat. The mayor held a massive financial advantage throughout the contest, and Garcia wasn't able to close the gap. Outside groups waited too long to pounce, and only the local branch of SEIU committed serious resources to ousting the incumbent.
Rahm was able to press this money edge to raise questions about Garcia's competency, flooding the airwaves with spots arguing that the often-vague Garcia had no real idea what he would do as mayor. The ad campaign supporting Garcia, by contrast, was far smaller and didn't make a sufficiently strong case against Emanuel.
Rahm's financial edge wasn't enough to let him avert a runoff back in February, but back then, Rahm was running against three notable opponents and couldn't effectively disqualify them all—nor did he really try. But against Garcia, all the mayor needed to do was make the case that, for all his flaws, he could be trusted to manage the city while Garcia could not be. In the end, he succeeded and won himself a second four-year term.
1Q Fundraising:
• CO-Sen:
Michael Bennet (D-inc): $2 million raised, $2.9 million cash-on-hand
• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt (R-inc): $1 million raised, $3 million cash-on-hand
Senate:
• AZ-Sen: Republican Sen. John McCain has spent the last several months signaling that he'll seek a sixth term, and he made it official on Tuesday. McCain has been preparing for a primary challenger, but so far no one impressive has stepped up.
State Sen. Kelli Ward has been talking about jumping in, but outside conservative groups aren't thrilled with her. However, while Reps. Matt Salmon and David Schweikert could give McCain a tough race, neither of them looks likely to challenge him. McCain reports that he has $3.5 million cash-on-hand as of March 31, which could help him scare off any strong opponents. Democrats may try to put the Grand Canyon State in play, but no one has signaled much interest in running so far.
• FL-Sen: Republican Attorney General Pam Bondi has been mentioned as a possible Senate contender, but she's always looked far more interested in running for governor in 2018. And sure enough, Bondi has confirmed that she will not try and succeed Marco Rubio next year.
• KY-Sen: To the surprise of absolutely no one, Republican Sen. Rand Paul announced on Tuesday that he would run for president. Paul had already made it clear that he'd be running for re-election to the Senate in 2016 as well, though he still hasn't nailed down all the details.
The state GOP looks likely to turn the presidential primary into a caucus, which would prevent Paul from appearing on the same ballot twice, though the decision needs to be finalized in August. However, if Paul somehow won the presidential nomination, there's a chance that he could get thrown off the Senate general election ballot, and the state GOP might not be able to replace him. Paul's allies have assured nervous Republicans that they won't be forced to surrender a Senate seat to the Democrats, but not everyone's convinced.
While Paul's odds of winning his party's presidential nomination aren't exactly good, he appears safe for re-election. Big named Bluegrass State Republicans are backing Paul's White House campaign, so it looks very unlikely that anyone of any stature would challenge him for re-nomination to the Senate. Democrats are focused on holding the governor's mansion in this year's election and no one has shown any interest in taking on Paul. Outgoing Gov. Steve Beshear would be the DSCC's dream candidate but he hasn't signaled that he has any desire to run. An August PPP poll gave Paul a 50-41 lead in a hypothetical matchup, even though Beshear had a higher job approval rating.
Gubernatorial:
• KY-Gov: Former Louisville Councilor Hal Heiner is out with yet another spot for the GOP primary. The ad goes into the usual conservative tropes about how Heiner is a conservative outsider who will fight Obama. For some variety, the narrator promises that Heiner will "require drug testing for welfare recipients."
Like all of Heiner's spots, this one is incredibly generic. In fact, this one is almost all just graphics, with background music that sounds kind of like an early version of "What if God was One of Us." But Heiner has been dominating the airwaves ahead of the May 19 primary, and he appears to have carved out a solid lead in the polls. His ads may not be impressive, but they may be getting the job done anyway.
• LA-Gov: Sen. David Vitter hasn't hesitated to trash fellow Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal's record as he runs to succeed him, something he's continued to do with gusto. But as the Associated Press' Melinda Deslatte notes, the other two Republican candidates have also aggressively promised a change from the Jindal era.
Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne (who, believe it or not, only made his campaign official this week) doesn't have the same toxic relationship with the governor as Vitter has. Still, the two have never exactly been close. In 2010, Jindal refused to endorse Dardenne in the special election for lieutenant governor, even during the general election against a well-financed Democrat; Jindal also didn't support Dardenne the next year. So it's not a surprise to see Dardenne hit Jindal, with him recently taking aim at the governor's education cuts.
What's more notable is that even Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle is criticizing Jindal, even if he's not going as far as Dardenne, Vitter, or Democratic candidate John Bel Edwards. Angelle used to serve in the Jindal Administration, and is the favorite of Jindal loyalists, though the governor is officially neutral. But Angelle is characterizing the state budget as a disaster, even though he isn't attacking the governor by name. It's pretty rare to see a governor's race where all the candidates from the governor's party are running away from him (absent a scandal), but that's definitely happening here.
• ND-Gov, Sen: As on Monday, both houses of the North Dakota legislator have passed a bill that would require vacant Senate seats to be filled by a special election rather than a gubernatorial appointment.
It's not a secret why Peace Garden Republicans pushed for this bill. Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is mulling a bid for governor in 2016 and if she won, she could have appointed her successor for the last two years of her term. There aren't many Democrats who can win in this conservative state, especially in a special election where Republicans tend to be more reliable voters. If the GOP can't stop Heitkamp from becoming governor, then grabbing her Senate seat is a very good consolation prize. This could also lead national Democrats to pressure Heitkamp to stay in Washington rather than risk handing the GOP another seat. The bill goes to Republican Gov. Jack Dalrymple for his signature, but there's little reason to think that he won't make this law.
House:
• FL-13: Due to a humiliating set of circumstances, Democrats weren't able to field a challenger in 2014 against freshman Republican David Jolly in this St. Petersburg-area swing seat. However, on Tuesday, former Obama Middle East policy aide Eric Lynn announced that he would run.
The NRCC attacked Lynn when his name began to circulate in March, so Team Red seems to view him as a legitimate foe. In addition to his time with the Obama campaign and at the White House, Lynn also worked to the Defense Department and he has ties to Tampa Bay Democrats as well, so he should have the connections he needs to raise real money. No other Democrats have shown much interest here, so Lynn may have the primary to himself. Last month, there were some rumors that ex-Gov. Charlie Crist was looking at this seat, but he quickly took his name out of contention.
• IA-01: A third candidate has joined the field of Democratic hopefuls looking to unseat GOP Rep. Rod Blum. Ad executive Gary Kroeger, who's best known as a Saturday Night Live alum from the 1980s and had been considering a bid since January, announced on Tuesday that he would indeed run for Congress. Already running are hotelier Ravi Patel and Cedar Rapids City Councilwoman Monica Vernon.
• IL-18: Because of a conflict between state and federal law, Gov. Bruce Rauner warned that the dates he chose for this special election would almost certainly be temporary. And sure enough, the Justice Department and state have now agreed to set the primary for July 7, and the general for Sept. 10 (which weirdly is a Thursday). The dates need to be approved by a judge, but barring a surprise, it looks like the calendar is set here. The April 20 filing deadline appears to be safe in any case.
• NC-02: It's finally happening: The tea party ouroboros is devouring itself. Renee Ellmers was one of the most exotic pieces of driftwood to get washed in with the 2010 GOP wave—a surgical nurse who'd never run for office before but got involved in politics as a bitter opponent of the Affordable Care Act. She entered a race that didn't look competitive but then narrowly defeated a crusty Democratic incumbent, Bob Etheridge, who stumbled badly on the campaign trail when he was caught on video getting physical with some Republican operatives posing as "students."
Ellmers, in other words, was a classic tea partying outsider who caught the car. But once she did, a funny thing happened: She started to behave a lot more like an establishment Republican. Last cycle, she infuriated movement conservatives when she flip-flopped to oppose efforts to tie Obamacare funding to keeping the government running; her fellow Republicans didn't listen and instigated a deeply unpopular shutdown.
Ellmers experienced another outbreak of sanity earlier this year, when the GOP wanted to force a vote on something called the "Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act" that would have restricted access to abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy. Ellmers is plenty conservative and plenty anti-choice, so she was quite supportive of the underlying idea, but she recognized that Republicans might inflame that whole "War on Women" problem again because the legislation would have only permitted an exception in the case of rape if the victim reported the assault to the authorities first.
This time, leadership heeded her warning and cancelled a vote on the bill, but her efforts to save her party may have come with a personal price. Chatham County GOP chair Jim Duncan, who'd been considering a primary challenge ever since Ellmers' interference with the abortion bill back in January, just announced that he'd take her on next year. Duncan had also been talked about as a possible candidate last cycle, too, but declined. However, Ellmers fared poorly in the primary anyway, taking just 59 percent against an utter Some Dude.
Duncan is at least a cut above that level, and he can probably threaten Ellmers even if outside forces don't come to his aid. But if the "tea party establishment"—groups like the Club for Growth, the Heritage Foundation, and the Senate Conservatives Fund—decide to get involved, the incumbent will find herself in even more trouble. Ellmers has to hope some other candidates jump in, too, so that she can ride the clown car to safety. But it's been a long, strange trip for her in just four short years, and she could soon complete the journey from outcast to cast out.
Other Races:
• Philadelphia Mayor: Ordinarily, we don't get too deep into the weeds about which city councilors and state legislators are endorsing whom in municipal elections, but a cluster of endorsements for ex-Councilor Jim Kenney is noteworthy enough to highlight. Kenney won support from three African-American state representatives (most prominently Dwight Evans, who has run for mayor twice) and two city councilors.
Local reporter Dave Davies argues that, in his decades of covering Philly politics, he hasn't ever seen so prominent a bloc of black politicians back a white candidate over a well-known black candidate (in this case, state Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams). Some of this seems to be about this bloc's relationship with organized labor, who are backing Kenney over Williams, but, as with any large, complex city with machine politics, it's also about personalities and neighborhood-level rivalries. Williams, who's from West Philadelphia, apparently hasn't been tending to his relationships with other blocs; Evans and his allies are from the more middle-class black community in Northwest Philadelphia.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Taniel.
