Republican Sen. Pat Toomey
GOP pollster Harper Polling takes a look at the general election, and they find some
very good numbers for Republican incumbent Pat Toomey:
• 54-30 vs. Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski
• 53-32 vs. 2010 nominee Joe Sestak
• 55-27 vs. Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro
It's not too surprising that the relatively unknown trio of Democrats don't poll too well (multiple polls have shown that a huge portion of the state doesn't even remember Sestak). But if Toomey is already clearing 50 percent, that's an incredibly bad sign for Team Blue. Right now Sestak and Pawlowski are running, but national Democrats are
hoping to persuade Shapiro to jump in.
A few pollsters have taken a look at hypothetical general election matches in the last few months and while this is the best Toomey's polled, we can't just dismiss it as a complete outlier. In mid-March, Quinnipiac gave Toomey a 48-35 edge against Sestak (the others weren't tested). Franklin & Marshall College found things much closer with Toomey up only 34-29 but with so many undecideds it's hard to make any conclusions. Back in January, PPP gave Toomey a modest 40-36 lead against Sestak and a 43-31 edge against Shapiro.
There's just not enough polling out there to indicate whether Toomey has established a clear lead in this light-blue state or whether he should prepare for a dogfight next year. Still, it's unlikely that the DSCC would be spending so much of their time trying to recruit Shapiro if they thought Toomey was this far ahead.
P.S.: As the National Journal's Alex Roarty reminds us, two years ago the NRSC dismissed Harper Polling after it showed some ugly results, with their spokesman Brad Dayspring memorably arguing their poll "might as well have been written in crayon." We'll see if they feel the same now that Harper's showing numbers they like, or if this pollster has been upgraded to Mr. Sketch status.