Matt Bevin holds an 83-vote lead with all precincts reporting
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• KY-Gov: We were expecting a tight GOP primary, but not this tight! With all precincts reporting, tea partying businessman Matt Bevin leads state Agriculture Commissioner James Comer by just 83 votes, a 0.04 percent margin. Former Louisville Councilor Hal Heiner was about 6 points behind with 27.1 percent of the vote, while former state Supreme Court Justice Will Scott brought up the rear with just 7.2 percent. Comer says he'll ask to have the results recanvassed, which won't take place until May 28. The Lexington Herald-Leader's Sam Youngman describes the process:
In a recanvass, printed vote totals are checked against figures sent to the state Board of Elections. No individual votes are actually recounted.
It's rare for election outcomes to change after the fact, but you never know what will happen in a race this close. However, Comer says that if he's still behind when all is said and done, he'll back Bevin.
Tuesday's vote brings an end to an incredibly nasty primary. A few weeks ago, Comer's college girlfriend came forward and accused him of abusing her two decades ago and taking her to get an abortion, and her former roommates confirmed parts of her story. Comer denied everything and in turn accused Heiner of paying her to lie. Comer also claimed that a blogger connected to Heiner threatened his running mate's children, a charge local prosecutors are investigating. Bevin managed to stay out of the slugfest, though Heiner ran a last-minute spot that sought to drag him into the muck with Comer.
Bevin's apparent victory comes just one year after his primary challenge against now-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell went down in flames. When Bevin entered the gubernatorial race at the last minute, he appeared to have a better shot of winning than he did in his prior attempt, but he was still the underdog. However, Bevin had the personal resources to join Heiner and Comer on television, and while McConnell was able to portray Bevin as a big-spending hypocrite, Bevin benefited from having the spotlight trained on his two major rivals. Heiner's allies ran ads against Bevin that rehashed some of McConnell's old attacks, but they weren't quite enough this time. However, if he proceeds to the general election, he can expect Team Blue to zero in on his many flaws.
The eventual Republican nominee will face Attorney General Jack Conway, who easily won the Democratic primary. While Kentucky is a conservative state, voters there have been much more willing to elect Democrats at the state level even as they've spurned them federally. A recent SurveyUSA poll gave Conway a hefty 48-37 lead against Bevin, though things may get closer once the wounds from this primary start to heal. At the very least, Conway won't mind if his would-be Republican foes spend a little extra time fighting with one another.
Senate:
• FL-Sen: Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson's divorce settlement with his estranged wife, which would reportedly have annulled their marriage, has fallen apart. We don't know why, though supposedly Grayson signed the agreement but his wife did not. Why is this even news, though? Because Grayson couldn't resist taking an ugly, public swipe at his wife—the mother of their five children—on his way into court:
"I'll sum it up for you. Gold diggers gotta dig. That's all I gotta say," Grayson said on Monday. "We had an agreement. She's trying to renege."
And Grayson's gotta grayse. Lately he's sent his acerbic rhetoric
into turbo mode: He dubbed one local reporter a "shitting robot," berated two others, reportedly cursed at DSCC chair Jon Tester, and allegedly called Rep. Patrick Murphy, his would-be primary rival, a piece of shit. So Grayson's latest outburst is far from surprising, but it certainly doesn't help his hot-headed image, and this isn't exactly the kind of remark your average woman voter will like.
Meanwhile, we have a new name emerging on the GOP side. Marc Caputo reports that wealthy businessman Randy Fine might drop his bid for the state House and take on a much more ambitious Senate campaign. Supposedly, Fine is willing to self-fund "seven figures," though even at the higher end of the range, that's not terribly impressive for Florida (Gov. Rick Scott spent $70 million of his own money in 2010). Right now, the only declared Republican is Rep. Ron DeSantis, a Club for Growth acolyte, so you know that the establishment is looking for an alternative. Whether that's Fine or, say, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, remains to be seen.
Gubernatorial:
• IN-Gov: Less than a year ago, it looked quite possible that GOP Gov. Mike Pence would forgo his re-election campaign in order to run for president. But over the last few months, Pence sounded reluctant to risk his day job. In any case, the national firestorm over the Religious Freedom Restoration Act pretty much ended any chance Pence had at mounting a serious bid for the White House, and turned his once-safe re-election campaign into a much tougher slog. So it comes as no surprise that Pence's campaign says that he will announce on June 18 that he will seek a second term as governor.
House:
• CA-17: Former Obama Administration official Ro Khanna came close to unseating fellow Democrat Mike Honda last year, and he's set to make a "special announcement" on May 30. It's probably too much for Honda fans to hope that Khanna raised $801,000 only to decide not to run again.
• IL-08: Democratic state Sen. Tom Cullerton formed an exploratory committee shortly after Rep. Tammy Duckworth announced that she would run for Senate, and he made his campaign official this week. Cullerton comes from a powerful family (his cousin is the state Senate president) and is well-connected to labor. Cullerton will face businessman and 2012 candidate Raja Krishnamoorthi, and fellow state Sen. Mike Noland has also formed an exploratory committee. The Democratic nominee should be favored in this Obama 57-41 Chicagoland seat.
• NH-01: In what passes for good news for Rep. Frank Guinta these days, the New Hampshire Republican Party's Executive Committee decided not to call for his resignation on Monday. Their statement wasn't exactly warm, saying that "[u]nless further information comes to light, the Executive Committee of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee, will take no further action."
Guinta has been in hot water since last week, when he paid a fine to the FEC over an illegal six-figure 2010 donation from his parents, and prominent Republicans like Sen. Kelly Ayotte have called for his departure. Guinta has maintained that the donation was legal but hasn't convincingly explained why, and he awkwardly refused to answer questions from Roll Call on Monday.
Guinta looks very likely to face a credible primary challenger if he follows through with his plans to seek another term, but, at least for now, his base isn't calling for his head. According to GOP pollster Reach Communications, registered Republicans in NH-01 agree Guinta should not resign by a 61-39 margin. It's unclear if Reach (whom we've never heard from before) allowed respondents to say if they were undecided or not. There's a big difference between saying that Guinta shouldn't resign in disgrace and saying that he should be renominated, but this survey may encourage him to keep hanging on. Democrats are going to contest this swing seat regardless, but they'd rather face a damaged Guinta than a fresh opponent.
Other Races:
• Jacksonville Mayor: Voters went to the polls in the mayoral runoff in Florida's largest city, and Republican businessman Lenny Curry narrowly unseated Democratic incumbent Alvin Brown by a 51-49 margin. Brown was always in for a tough campaign in this conservative city, and the state GOP made winning city hall back a major priority. Brown did his best to appeal to crossover voters even though he was always at risk of jeopardizing his popularity with his party's base; in the end, he simply came up short.
• PA-AG: Two years ago, Democratic state Attorney General Kathleen Kane was a rising star in Pennsylvania politics who looked likely to serve in the Senate or governor's mansion before too long. Now, Kane is facing an indictment for allegedly leaking secretive information to embarrass political enemies. Over at Philadelphia Magazine, Robert Huber gives us a fascinating look at Kane's rise and fall.
• Philadelphia Mayor: Former City Councilor Jim Kenney won a decisive victory in Tuesday's Democratic primary, defeating state Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams 56-26. Williams' pro-charter school allies heavily outspent Kenney's labor backers, but Kenney was able to win over key endorsements from notable African-American politicians, even though Kenney is white and Williams is black.
Kenney also benefited from ex-District Attorney Lynne Abraham's steep drop in support. While Abraham started the contest with high name recognition, she didn't have much money or any high-spending super PACs on her side, and in the end, she only took 8 percent of the vote.
A late gaffe by Williams also appears to have contributed to his defeat. Williams called for the dismissal of Police Commissioner Charles Ramsey, arguing that he was the architect of Philadelphia's stop-and-frisk policies. However, Ramsey was incredibly popular across racial lines, and Williams had no time to recover from this misstep. Philadelphia hasn't elected a non-Democratic mayor since the 1940s, and Kenney will be the heavy favorite in November.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Taniel.
