In 2012, Democratic House candidates earned more votes combined than Republicans did, but the Democratic Party still came nowhere close to reclaiming the chamber. Now, Democrats are faced with the grim reality that they're likely to be locked out of the House until 2022 at the very earliest, barring a wave election that no one can count on.
But it shouldn't be this way. As we'll demonstrate, it's eminently possible to draw nonpartisan congressional districts that give voters a real choice and allow the majority to have its voice heard. Below, you'll find proposed maps for the entire Northeast that reflect these principles.
Pennsylvania — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Republican governor and legislature
Intended to Favor: Republicans
Delegation: 5 Democrats, 13 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 52, Romney 47
Summary: Republicans effectively maximized their seats
Net Change: Democrats would gain two to four seats
To start with our look at how the Northeast could look under nonpartisan redistricting, here's Pennsylvania. This state was arguably the second most aggressive partisan gerrymander after North Carolina. The 7th District is such a Rorschach-style mess that it is almost comical if it were not so unfair. That district is radically redrawn in this map, which splits zero municipalities aside from Philadelphia, which is too big for one district.
Overall, we estimate that under this map, Democrats would have won two to four more seats with a most likely gain of four.
The 15th District contains the Lehigh Valley and becomes 7.6 points more Democratic. Republican Rep. Charlie Dent is quite entrenched, but Obama's 4.6 point win makes it quite possible he could have been defeated, even if unlikely. The 17th to the north drops Schuylkill County and Republican Rep. Lou Barletta's base in Hazelton. Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright would have been heavily favored here.
The Harrisburg region is united into a single 11th district. With his base in Schuylkill County, moderate Democratic Rep. Tim Holden would have been a solid favorite to win re-election, despite Romney's 10-point win. Roughly two-thirds of Holden's old district is contained here and the new district is barely any more Republican than the version Holden easily held all last decade.
In the west, Erie is no longer cracked between two seats and the 3rd District becomes 12.2 points better for Democrats. Romney only won it by 0.5 percent and Obama actually carried it by 4.2 in 2008. Even John Kerry just barely won this seat. Furthermore, Democrats typically overperform Obama's vote share in western Pennsylvania, with Sen. Bob Casey winning the district by nearly two points. Given how Republican Rep. Mike Kelly won by 14.5 percent over a nobody, I believe he would have narrowly lost with a serious opponent. Given the margin though, this seat could have gone either way.
Head below the fold for a look at the remainder of the Keystone State and the rest of the Northeast.
To the south, the 12th no longer spreads out to Johnstown and is contained within the Pittsburgh suburbs. Democratic Rep. Mark Critz gets screwed with his seat eliminated, but fellow Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire would have been the nominee instead. This seat is much more similar to Altmire's old district and given how relatively well he performed even in 2010, he probably would have defeated now-Republican Rep. Keith Rothfuss in a rematch. Still, at 44.1 percent Obama, this seat could have potentially gone Republican.
The 14th remains solidly Democratic while the other remaining districts are safe for Republicans. The 18th would have been competitive several years ago and Kerry only lost it by 5.8 percent, while Kathleen Kane actually carried it for attorney general in 2012. However, even if Critz ran here, Republican Rep. Tim Murphy would have easily won this seat given that Romney won it by 19.1 points.
Click any map to enlarge
The 2nd District in Philadelphia remains majority black and the 1st is a majority-minority coalition district. It would be more optimal to have two districts that were 45 percent black, but the VRA sadly does not call for this currently. Delaware County does not need to be split and that makes the 7th far more compact. The district is now so heavily Democratic that Republican Rep. Pat Meehan would have no chance of staying in office if he even bothered running again.
Bucks County has historically been kept whole, but splitting it allows for two more compact districts that have a sharper divide in class. It also makes the 8th 3.2 points stronger for Republicans. The 13th District remains solidly Democratic. The 6th District becomes more competitive, swinging 5.8 percent to Obama, who now won it. Republican Rep. Jim Gerlach was a relatively entrenched incumbent and very likely would have won, but this seat would assuredly be contested each cycle.
Connecticut — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Federal court (Democratic governor and legislature lacked a two-thirds majority)
Intended to Favor: Neither
Delegation: 5 Democrats
2012 Vote: Obama 58, Romney 41
Summary: Court’s least-change version of the 2000s bipartisan compromise
Net Change: Republicans would gain one seat
This map was drawn by Daily Kos Elections community member ProudNewEnglander. It does not split any towns and sees the 5th drop Cheshire and New Britain in exchange for towns west of Hartford. Counties in New England are essentially just lines on the map with little-to-no actual power, therefore towns are the important local government institutions.
Unfortunately for Democrats, these changes cause Obama's margin in the 5th to shrink by 5.3 points. Since Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty only won by 2.6 percent, she probably loses. Of course, without Cheshire and the surrounding towns, Esty might not even have been the nominee. However, Republican state Sen. Andrew Roraback was a formidable candidate and likely wins here. All of the other four seats are solidly Democratic.
Delaware — At-Large district
Maine — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Bipartisan compromise among Republican governor and legislature (Republicans lacked a two-thirds majority)
Intended to Favor: Neither
Delegation: 2 Democrats
2012 Vote: Obama 56, Romney 41
Summary: There are slight issues with the districts
Net Change: None
This map was also drawn by ProudNewEnglander. There are just a few modest changes to make the districts more compact and zero towns were split. The political impact is negligible, with the 2nd District becoming just 1.4 points more Democratic by presidential margin. Democrats clearly would have retained both seats in 2012 and lost the 2nd in 2014.
Maryland — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Democratic governor and legislature
Intended to Favor: Democrats
Delegation: 7 Democrats, 1 Republican
2012 Vote: Obama 62, Romney 36
Summary: Maryland Democrats drew a hideous map for parochial reasons due to the many demands incumbents had. The party could have easily drawn every district to be safely Democratic while looking much less ugly.
Net Change: Republicans would gain one seat
Maryland's congressional map is atrociously grotesque because incumbent Democrats were extremely particular about wanting certain places in certain districts. Some commentators blamed Rep. Donna Edwards, but her demands were ignored. Instead the map is as ugly as it is because Rep. John Sarbanes wanted his home of Towson north of Baltimore, along with Annapolis, and part of the D.C. suburbs in the 3rd District. In the 2nd, Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger wanted Aberdeen and his home of Cockeysville, which just happens to be right near Towson. Add in that Democrats wanted to target the 6th and the result looks like a Rorschach blot.
What is so ridiculous about that map is that Democrats did not even maximize their possible seats. They easily could have drawn a much cleaner-looking map where every single district went for Obama by nearly 20 points. However, parochial politics prevented that.
This map radically redraws the lines and results in two solidly Republican districts with the 1st and 6th. Every other district is fairly strongly Democratic. Making the 5th the VRA-mandated black-majority seat allows the new 4th to become heavily majority minority. Rep. Steny Hoyer and Rep. Donna Edwards are placed into each other's districts, but it is not clear where either would run. Hoyer is probably powerful enough and racial polarization moderate enough for him to win the primary easily in either seat, but whenever the 75-year-old retires, both would be highly likely to elect minority Democrats.
Baltimore and its suburbs are split neatly into two districts, with the east and west sides of the city anchoring their own seat. The city could be kept whole, but it has long been divided and splitting it allows the 3rd District to be confined to the center of the state, containing Annapolis and Columbia, rather than having Baltimore County's suburbs. Sarbanes probably runs here and with a 14-point Obama margin, he would win. Given how disastrous 2014 was in Maryland though, Sarbanes would have been quite vulnerable then.
An alternate configuration that has some merit keeps Baltimore whole and sees the 1st cross the Chesapeake Bay Bridge to grab Annapolis. The 2nd then adds Harford County and suburban Baltimore County north of the city. However, this iteration is less optimal. Rather than fit neatly into two districts, the Baltimore area is split between three and two of those districts include other regions. Furthermore, Annapolis has little in common with the rural Eastern Shore, even though there are likely commuters who live in Queen Ann's county across the bay.
Even under this map, the outcome is unlikely to change. The 2nd would have been roughly 50-50 for president and with areas that support Democrats downballot, along with his incumbency, Ruppersberger likely still wins by a modest amount. However, splitting Baltimore creates a district with racial demographics similar to the state, meaning a black candidate could plausibly win it whenever Ruppersberger retires.
Ultimately, a nonpartisan map would have likely cost Democrats just a single seat, with Republican Rep. Roscoe Bartlett winning the 6th instead of Democratic Rep. John Delaney.
Massachusetts — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Democratic governor and legislature
Intended to Favor: Democrats
Delegation: 9 Democrats
2012 Vote: Obama 61, Romney 38
Summary: Democrats effectively maximized their seats. However they failed to protect vulnerable then-Rep. John Tierney or make every seat as Democratic as possible.
Net Change: None
Massachusetts is an example of a state where geography screws Republicans. This map, which splits zero towns, still has Obama winning every district comfortably. The open 4th is the least Democratic district, but with Obama carrying it by 8.5 points, Rep. Joe Kennedy III probably still wins it easily if he still ran there. Republicans would have actually contested that seat, but with the Obama margin that wide it is unlikely they would have been successful in 2012.
Ironically enough, the Democrats' most vulnerable seat becomes considerably safer. Then-Rep. John Tierney's 6th District swings nearly 9 points to the left and his 2012 squeaker of a win expands to the high single digits. The 3rd District consists of the Merrimack Valley and is the second-least Democratic seat in the state. However, Obama won it by 9.1 and Democratic Rep. Niki Tsongas had no trouble performing better than the president.
South of Boston, the 8th is now somewhat marginal too, but moderate Democratic Rep. Stephen Lynch also earns a high level of crossover support. The other seats all remain fairly strong for Democrats and the party would have won all nine seats.
New Hampshire — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Republican governor and legislature
Intended to Favor: Republicans
Delegation: 2 Democrats
2012 Vote: Obama 52, Romney 46
Summary: Republicans had to accommodate two incumbents; otherwise they could have drawn one vote sink and come away with one safe seat
Net Change: None
Republicans should have drawn the 2nd to be a vote sink for Democrats, which would have created a Romney district out of the 1st. However, with Republican incumbents in both seats, they only drew a very modest gerrymander and subsequently lost both districts. This map reunites Nashua with most of the Merrimack Valley and is generally more compact. Zero towns were split.
The partisan impact of these changes is quite limited, with the 1st becoming 0.9 percent more Democratic and the 2nd 1.1 percent more Republican. Democrats would have narrowly still won both seats in 2012 and yet again lost the 1st in 2014.
New Jersey — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Bipartisan Commission. Evenly divided parties chose tie-breaking member, who picked a Republican gerrymander.
Intended to Favor: Republicans
Delegation: 6 Democrats, 6 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 58, Romney 41
Summary: Republican Gov. Chris Christie threatened the funding for the Rutgers program of now-deceased professor Alan Rosenthal, causing him to resign from the commission. Democrats foolishly agreed to former Republican Gov. John Farmer as a replacement tiebreaker. Farmer predictably voted for the Republican gerrymander proposal.
Net Change: Democrats would gain two seats
New Jersey is another state where Republicans are disadvantaged by geography. This map is a considerable redraw that splits zero municipalities outside of the two VRA districts in northern New Jersey.
One of the biggest changes involves combining Burlington County with Trenton in the 3rd. That makes it strongly Democratic and Rep. Rush Holt would have easily defeated Republican Rep. Jon Runyan if the latter ran there at all. Ocean County is wholly relocated to the 4th, causing that district to become quite strongly Republican.
The most competitive district would be the 6th in the north end of the Jersey Shore. Obama only won it by 2.4 points, but Democratic Rep. Frank Pallone had a huge amount of campaign dollars on hand at the beginning of the cycle. Furthermore, incumbents generally received a boost by Hurricane Sandy happening just days before the election. Pallone likely holds on in 2012, but would have been very vulnerable in 2014.
To the northwest, the 12th becomes majority minority with a large Asian-American population of 22 percent. The district is quite solidly Democratic and if Holt did not run in the 3rd he would have easily won here. In the north, the 8th remains majority Hispanic while the 10th remains majority black. The new 5th District is a suburban seat that Obama won by 17.3 points and would have almost certainly elected another Democrat. The 9th remains dark blue and is also majority minority.
The 7th and 11th remain solidly Republican, while Republican Rep. Scott Garrett likely loses out. In the south, the 1st remains strongly Democratic, while Republican Rep. Frank LoBiondo remains quite entrenched in the 2nd despite its Democratic lean. Overall, Democrats might capture nine seats if everything went right, or they might just take seven.
New York — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Federal court
Intended to Favor: Neither
Delegation: 21 Democrats, 6 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 63, Romney 35
Summary: This map was fully drawn by the courts, but has issues with certain districts upstate
Net Change: Democrats would gain zero to one seat
This map is a slight variation of the proposal put forth by the advocacy group Common Cause. The main change was to redraw districts upstate, so districts 1-18, 25, and 27 are unchanged. Thus, downstate and NYC are excluded, but you can see them in the interactive map.
The biggest improvement with this map is how the 23rd, 24th, and 27th are drawn. No longer does the 23rd stretch from Ithaca to Erie, Pennsylvania, while the 24th is now much more rural. This puts Syracuse in the 22nd with Utica and Rome. The 19th, 20th, and 21st are not considerably different.
The outcome of this map would likely be no net change. However, Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei would have very likely lost to Republican Rep. Richard Hanna given the struggle he had against a much more conservative tea partier, Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle. That district went for Obama by a hefty 13.8 points, but Hanna has demonstrated crossover appeal in each of his runs. Buerkle would have run in the 24th and probably won, although Romney only carried the seat by 2.7 points.
In exchange for losing Maffei's seat, Democrats likely flip the 23rd and defeat Republican Rep. Tom Reed. Reed had a surprisingly small winning margin of 3.8 points despite a large spending advantage and a Romney seat. This district becomes 4.8 points more Democratic and the party would have actually invested in the race. Thus it is quite likely that Reed loses by a few points.
Unfortunately for Democrats, Rep. Kathy Hochul probably still loses to Republican Rep. Chris Collins. Her district's partisanship does not change and with even less of her old seat, whatever incumbency boost she earned would have been slightly diminished. An alternate configuration would drop Niagara Falls and North Tonawanda in Niagara County from the 26th and confine it entirely to Erie County. That would improve the presidential margin in the 27th for Democrats by about exactly what Hochul lost by. However these two municipalities have more in common demographically with urban Buffalo than do the other suburbs further south of the city.
In the very north of the state, the 21st becomes just 0.6 percent more Democratic. The 20th remains solidly Democratic with dark blue Albany. The 19th gets 0.7 percent more Democratic, but Republican Rep. Chris Gibson won by 5.6 so that outcome is unlikely to have changed unless Democrats landed a better candidate.
Finally, there is the 11th in Staten Island. First, there are alternate ways of redrawing the district that have some merit that make it more Democratic-leaning. Republican Rep. Michael Grimm only won by 5.5 despite a large spending advantage. Even if the lines did not change, perhaps Grimm draws a stronger challenger than the lackluster Democrat he faced. Former Democratic Rep. Mike McMahon or state Assemblyman Michael Cusick may have run if the prospect of serving in the minority had dissuaded them from actually running in reality.
That is of course unknowable, so Grimm probably still wins. The net impact of this map is that Maffei and Reed both lose to members of the opposite party.
Rhode Island — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Independent governor and Democratic legislature
Intended to Favor: Democrats
Delegation: 2 Democrats
2012 Vote: Obama 63, Romney 35
Summary: Democrats passed a map that actually was unhelpful to them, because Rep. David Cicilinne underperforms while Rep. Jim Langevin overperforms.
Net Change: None
This map reunites the city of Providence, making the 1st District very heavily Democratic. However both Districts remain safely in the blue column.
Vermont — At-Large district

By comparing the Democratic seat share in each state to Obama's vote share, we can approximate the disportionality in each state. In nearly every state, Democrats would have won more seats than the president's vote share would have indicated. In total, Democrats win 13 more districts than they would have proportionally.
In total, Democrats likely gain four districts in the Northeast, which sees them win more districts than Obama's vote share than any other region. It should be obvious that geography is not a hindrance to Democrats winning when you remove gerrymandering from the equation.
Methodology
The criteria for drawing optimal districts are numbered below in order prioritization, but it is important that these factors be balanced with one another.
1. Ignore partisanship
2. Comply with the Voting Rights Act's demand for majority-minority districts
3. Utilize communities of interest like shared culture or economic class
4. Minimize unnecessary city and county splits
5. Geographic, not geometric compactness
You can find further details on the methodology used to construct these districts here, as well as all of the associated data files.
For all of our posts in the Nonpartisan Redistricting series, click here.