In 2012, Democratic House candidates earned more votes combined than Republicans did, but the Democratic Party still came nowhere close to reclaiming the chamber. Now, Democrats are faced with the grim reality that they're likely to be locked out of the House until 2022 at the very earliest, barring a wave election that no one can count on.
But it shouldn't be this way. As we'll demonstrate, it's eminently possible to draw nonpartisan congressional districts that give voters a real choice and allow the majority to have its voice heard. Below, you'll find proposed maps for the entire Midwest that reflect these principles.
Ohio — Proposed Map:
Click any map to enlarge
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Republican governor and legislature
Intended to Favor: Republicans
Delegation: 4 Democrats, 12 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 51, Romney 48
Summary: Republicans effectively maximized their seats
Net Change: Democrats would gain four to five seats
Ohio represents the single biggest net gain for one party of any state. Republicans very deviously gerrymandered to pack Democrats into just four seats out of 16.
This map radically redraws northern Ohio to give Toledo its own district, while east and west Cleveland anchor their own seats. It's possible to keep Cleveland whole, but that causes the surrounding districts to become quite uncompact.
The VRA should not require the 11th to grab Akron to be six points blacker as such a tendril is not at all compact, nor is racial polarization as high as in the Deep South. Even such a change is unlikely to affect the result, as the 14th would soak up some white Republicans from the 13th. That means it doesn't move rightward enough even without central Akron that a stronger incumbent like Democratic Rep. Betty Sutton would have lost.
That allows Akron to have its own district, while a new 5th District is created adjacent to it. No longer does the 14th squeeze out every Republican in northeast Ohio, but adds dark blue Youngstown. In Appalachia, the 6th regains the college town of Athens, while adding Zainesville and New Philadelphia. The Columbus area sees the lines cleaned up considerably between the three seats in Franklin County. In Hamilton County, Cincinnati is no longer cracked between two districts.
Politically this map is a huge boon to Democrats. Head below the fold to learn why.
The 1st District went for Obama by 13 points and given how Republican Rep. Steve Chabot only won a more conservative district in 2010 by 5.6 percent, he very likely loses. In the north, Obama carried the 5th District by 5.2 points. The overwhelming majority of the district would have been new to Republican Rep. Bob Latta and it's quite unlikely that a standard-issue conservative such as he would have carried this seat.
Dennis Kucinich or whichever Democrat might have primaried him would be very likely to carry the new 7th given Obama's 13.6 point win there. Even with his issues, Kucinich would be unlikely to lose. Democratic Rep. Betty Sutton would have easily regained her seat in Akron given how she came close to winning a Romney district. In the 14th, Republican Rep. Steve LaTourette probably still retires rather than lose to Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan in this solidly Democratic seat.
The final Democratic gain is the 6th District, which moves 6.8 points to the left. Republican Rep. Bill Johnson only defeated former Democratic Rep. Charlie Wilson by 6.5 points. Additionally, more of Wilson's geographic base is added to the district with New Philadelphia, where presumably he would have earned more crossover votes. Given the closeness of the margin, this one could have gone either way, but likelier than not, Wilson wins.
The 3rd and 11th remain dark blue while the other seven districts are secure for their Republican incumbents. In total, Democrats gain five districts in 2012, but would have had a disaster in 2014 thanks to the debacle of the gubernatorial election. Furthermore, Wilson died just months into the 2013 term and Democrats would have likely lost the seat in a special election.
Illinois — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Democratic governor and legislature
Intended to Favor: Democrats
Delegation: 12 Democrats, 6 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 57, Romney 41
Summary: This was the most important Democratic gerrymander, but even so they could have won two more seats
Net Change: Republicans would gain one to four seats.
Illinois was one of the few states Democrats aggressively gerrymandered, but just as with practically every other state they drew, their gerrymander has serious partisan flaws. Democrats could have drawn a map that would have likely won them two additional districts in both 2012 and 2014.
Under this map, Springfield, Bloomington, and the suburbs of St. Louis are no longer in the same district, while Peoria and Rockford are each given to a different district. The lines in Cook County are much less contorted, while the three majority black seats and one majority Hispanic seat are maintained.
Republicans would stand to gain considerably with this map. Amazingly, seven districts voted for Obama by less than five points, while he carried all but two in 2008.
Downstate, Democratic Rep. Bill Enyart's 12th District becomes marginally more Republican, but he would have still won comfortably. The 13th District becomes 7.8 points more Republican and given that Democrat David Gill narrowly lost in a 50-50 seat, he almost certainly still loses here. Obama did carry that district by over 4 points in 2008 and with a better, more disciplined candidate, Democrats might have won it in 2012.
The 17th lurches 15.9 points to the right and Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos would have very likely lost, given her 6.6 margin in reality. The 16th District now just barely went for Obama, but Republican Rep. Don Manzullo was fairly entrenched there and would have likely won. The 15th and 18th remain strongly Republican.
In the Chicago area, Democrats probably lose three seats, with the 10th shifting two points to the right. Since Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider just barely won by 1.3, he probably loses, but this district is debatable. The 8th District now went for Romney by a solid 7.3 percent. Even tea party firebrand Republican Rep. Joe Walsh probably would have won comfortably, short of former Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean or state Rep. Jack Franks running there.
The 14th becomes considerably more Democratic and Obama now won it by 3.3 points. Democratic Rep. Bill Foster would have run here and would have been a very formidable candidate. It's quite possible he could have won, but given the propensity for suburban Chicago voters to split their tickets, he probably comes up short. The 11th also has a similar Obama margin, but is slightly more Democratic down ballot. Democrats would have seriously challenged Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger and may well have won, but he probably narrowly survives.
The 6th District now voted modestly for Obama, but Republican Rep. Pete Roskam is a strong incumbent who would have most likely won by a modest amount. The 3rd District is now marginal at just a 4.6 point Obama win. However, given how entrenched Blue Dog Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski is, he would have easily won. The 5th is now just modestly Democratic and while the party would have won it in 2012, it would have been vulnerable in 2014. Rep. Tammy Duckworth probably runs here as would Rep. Mike Quigley. The 1st, 2nd, 4th, 7th, and 9th remain dark blue.
In total, Republicans probably gain four seats, giving them a 10 to eight majority in a state Romney lost badly. In 2014 Democrats might have won as few as seven seats. As this map demonstrates, Illinois Democrats might have lost the legislature in 2014 despite winning the popular vote if the maps weren't gerrymandered in their favor. Had that come to pass, we would be calling Republican Governor Bruce Rauner the new Scott Walker.
Indiana — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Republican legislature
Intended to Favor: Republicans
Delegation: 2 Democrats, 7 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 44, Romney 54
Summary: Republicans effectively maximized their seats. The 2nd District could have been considerably more Republican. However, it was drawn so that Republicans would win it, but it wouldn't be so Republican as to cause then Rep. Joe Donnelly to run statewide, which he successfully did anyway.
Net Change: Democrats would gain one seat
This map splits zero municipalities outside of Indianapolis, which is too large for a single district. Indiana Republicans could have drawn the 2nd to be considerably more Republican by putting South Bend in the 1st, but they didn't. However, that didn't prevent them from just barely winning the seat in 2012. In this map, the 2nd District gets six points more Democratic and given that Republican Rep. Jackie Walorski only won by 1.5, she very likely loses. The 5th District voted for Obama in 2008, but it voted for Romney by about the same as his statewide margin.
At the other end of the state, the 9th becomes a few points more Democratic, particularly down ballot by dropping the Indianapolis suburbs. Democrats wouldn't have won in 2012, but it would have been a single digit race at worst. The 8th is unchanged in partisanship, while the 1st and 7th remain strongly Democratic and the 3rd, 4th, and 6th are solidly Republican.
Iowa — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Independent professional agency. The legislature (divided) & governor (R) approved plans, but could not edit them.
Intended to Favor: Neither
Delegation: 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 52, Romney 46
Summary: This map is not optimal because it is required to not split counties, while also achieving the lowest possible deviation.
Net Change: None
Iowa's districts weren't intentionally gerrymandered, but the state constitutional requirements that no counties be split and for the deviation to be as low as possible resulted in a flawed map. This map reunites all of western Iowa in a single district, while placing Ames in with the rest of the Des Moines metro area. Two counties are split for compactness, but that could be avoided with minimal changes to the map.
These changes cause Obama's margin in the 3rd to increase by 4.2 points. Republican Rep. Tom Latham won rather comfortably in 2012 and likely would have still done so. However these changes would have made it far likelier Democrats win the seat in 2016. The 1st and 2nd District retain a similar partisanship, while Rep. Steve King is now quite secure in the strongly Republican 4th.
Kansas — Actual Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Drawn by: Federal district court
Intended to Favor: Neither
Delegation: 4 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 38, Romney 60
Summary: This map was completely designed by the courts is largely acceptable. Kansas is one of the worst states for geography bias against Democrats.
Net Change: None
Michigan — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Republican governor and legislature
Intended to Favor: Republicans
Delegation: 5 Democrats, 9 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 54, Romney 45
Summary: Republicans effectively maximized their seats
Net Change: Democrats would gain two to three seats.
In the above map, the only contiguous municipality that is divided is Detroit. The city could have fit into a single district, but it would have been over 80 percent black. Thus the VRA requires two black-majority seats, which split the city. Rather than have both VRA districts cross into Oakland County, only the 13th does now. The 11th no longer hooks around Pontiac and has a clear Democratic lean with an 11-point Obama win. Democratic Rep. John Dingell might have run here, but accidental Republican Rep. Kerry Bentivolio would have lost regardless.
The 12th in Ann Arbor and the south of the state is not quite as Democratic as the Republicans' version, but Obama's 16.7 point margin would have ensured it would elect a Democrat. Now that the Lansing area is no longer split, the 7th District becomes nearly 12 points more Democratic. Given how Republican Rep. Tim Walberg only won by 10.7 over a total nobody conspiracy theorist, he likely draws a much better opponent and loses.
In the southwest, the 6th becomes 3.5 points more Democratic with the addition of Battle Creek, causing it to have voted for Obama. Republican Rep. Fred Upton had a surprisingly modest margin of 12.3 over an underfunded challenger. It's quite possible he would have drawn a better opponent such as former Democratic Rep. Mark Schauer, especially since Obama now carried the district by 2.2 percent. Perhaps Upton loses, but he probably holds on.
In the center and north of the state, the 4th unites the Tri-Cities area and now voted for Obama by a very narrow margin. This area is also slightly more Democratic down ballot, however Republican Rep. Dave Camp was very entrenched and likely wins in 2012. In the Upper Peninsula, the 1st District barely changes and Democrats still would have narrowly lost it.
The 5th District retains Flint while adding the Thumb instead of packing Democrats with Saginaw. This makes it 8.2 points more Republican, but with Obama winning it comfortably, Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee would have easily prevailed. The 10th now voted for Obama in 2008, but reverted to a 5.5 point Romney win in 2012. Republican Rep. Candice Miller was also quite entrenched and would have easily won.
The 2nd and 3rd remain strongly Republican while the 8th becomes quite safe for the party. The 9th, 13th, and 14th remain solidly Democratic. In total, Democrats likely gain two seats by defeating Walberg and Bentivolio.
Minnesota — Actual Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Drawn by: State Supreme Court
Intended to Favor: Neither
Delegation: 5 Democrats, 3 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 53, Romney 45
Summary: This map was completely designed by the courts is largely acceptable. Democrats won more than their fair share of seats largely thanks to incumbency effects.
Net Change: None
Missouri — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Republican legislature overrode veto of the Democratic governor with turncoat legislative Democrats.
Intended to Favor: Republicans
Delegation: 2 Democrats, 6 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 44, Romney 54
Summary: Democrats complained when this map passed with turncoat Democratic support along with Republicans. However, the only effect of the map was to protect Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, who had quite modest wins in both 2010 and 2014.
Net Change: None
Democrats complained at the time of the map's passage complained how the party got screwed out of a second seat in St. Louis, but this map should make clear that was not the case. The 2nd District in the suburbs of St. Louis went for Romney by 14 percent and Republican Rep. Ann Wagner would have easily won. You have to split the city of St. Louis and gerrymander out the redder suburbs for the 2nd to even be competitive, let alone reliably elect a Democrat.
The 5th District in Kansas City becomes 1.3 points worse for Obama’s margin. It shifts slightly more than that down ballot with the loss of Saline County, which Cleaver carried in 2012 despite a clear Romney win. Given how unimpressive his wins were in the 2010 and 2014 waves however, every little bit hurts. He would have had no trouble in 2012 of course and wouldn’t have ultimately lost in a midterm if Republicans continued to field perennial candidate Jacob Turk, but it would have been close.
The 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, and 8th remain solidly Republican, while the 1st District remains dark blue. It is impossible to draw a majority black district in the St. Louis area, but the VRA still requires this district to be close to it even if not as close as possible.
So in effect, Republicans passed a map that marginally benefited both parties despite not changing the outcome. If they had enough numbers at the time to override a veto on their own, they may have tried cracking Kansas City to oust Cleaver, or at the very least create a swing district that he would have lost in a midterm. Ultimately, you need an ugly, blatant gerrymander to create a second Democratic seat out of St. Louis though.
Nebraska — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Republican governor and legislature
Intended to Favor: Republicans
Delegation: 3 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 38, Romney 60
Summary: This was the most minimalist Republican gerrymander in that it barely did much, but probably made the difference in 2012. They could have split Omaha and made the 2nd safely Republican.
Net Change: Democrats would gain zero to one seat
This map just barely worked for Republicans in 2012 and just barely failed in 2014. There is no reason why the urban 2nd District should have rural, western Sarpy County while leaving out parts of suburban Bellevue and Offutt Air Force Base in the county's east.
Exchanging these places moves the 2nd District 1.8 points to the left. Given how Republican Rep. Lee Terry scraped by with just a 1.6 point win, he probably goes down in defeat. However, the margin is close enough that he quite possibly could have won. The 1st and 3rd remain strongly Republican.
North Dakota — At-Large district
South Dakota — At-Large district
Wisconsin — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Republican governor and legislature
Intended to Favor: Republicans
Delegation: 3 Democrats, 5 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 53, Romney 46
Summary: Republicans effectively maximized their seats
Net Change: Democrats would one to two seats
This map doesn't split a single municipality. The 7th District regains Stevens Point while the 1st loses all of crucial Waukesha County while gaining Beloit. The 2nd District remains in Madison, while the 3rd extends further north along the border. The 6th and 8th are fairly similar, as are the 4th and 5th.
The best part of this map is the Republican representative who would be most likely to lose is Rep. Paul Ryan. Obama carried Ryan's seat by 4.8 percent and it's quite plausible that Ryan would have simply not run for re-election to be the vice presidential nominee. With a district like this, Ryan would have drawn a credible, well-funded opponent and it is quite probable that he would lose. Even liberal Sen. Tammy Baldwin won this seat by nearly 5 points.
In addition to the 1st District, Democrats would have a great shot at winning the 7th. This seat now voted for Obama by 1.6 percent and Tammy Baldwin by an even wider 3.8 points. With the inclusion of Democratic-leaning Stevens Point, Democrats would have been able to get a better candidate in the race, such as 2010 nominee, state Senator Julie Lassa. Democrats have a tendency to overperform Obama's numbers in this part of the state, as evidenced by Baldwin's win. I believe Republican Rep. Sean Duffy would have narrowly lost, but clearly this district could go either way.
By comparing the Democratic seat share in each state to Obama's vote share, we can approximate the disportionality in each state. While Republicans would have won slightly more seats than Romney's vote share would have awarded proportionally, this is more than counterbalanced by the Northeast where Democrats won additional seats.
In total, Democrats gain seven additional districts in the Midwest compared to the actual 2012 results. It should be clear that gerrymandering matters even in this region where geography bias hurts Democrats.
Methodology
The criteria for drawing optimal districts are numbered below in order prioritization, but it is important that these factors be balanced with each other.
1. Ignore partisanship
2. Comply with the Voting Rights Act's demand for majority-minority districts
3. Utilize communities of interest like shared culture or economic class
4. Minimize unnecessary city and county splits
5. Geographic, not geometric compactness
You can find further details on the methodology used to construct these districts here, as well as all of the associated data files.
For all of our posts in the Nonpartisan Redistricting series, click here.
