(click to enlarge)
Leading Off:
• Maps: If you've ever tried to project any election results on to a traditional map of U.S. congressional districts, you know that you'll wind up with unreadable tangles of blue urban districts and misleadingly large swaths of red in rural areas. To remedy this age-old problem, Daily Kos Elections' Daniel Donner has developed an awesome, brand-new cartogram that uses groupings of five hexagons to represent each congressional district so that they all appear equally sized.
While some compromises were necessary, of course, the advantages of this map are many: Every state retains a recognizable shape and location, and each seat is clearly visible. And in versions with district numbers, each district is placed about where it ought to be relative to other districts in the same state. So when you map out those same election results, you get a much sharper picture:
(click to enlarge)
If you'd like to learn more about how and why we created this map,
click through to Dan's post. You'll also find blank versions that you can use yourself. The difference between this new approach and traditional maps is stark, and you can expect to see this cartogram quite a bit going forward at Daily Kos Elections.
Senate:
• FL-Sen: Sadly, we won't get to enjoy the wit and wisdom of George LeMieux this cycle. The former Republican senator, who was briefly appointed to the job after Mel Martinez resigned in 2009 and then briefly ran for a full Senate term in 2012, says he won't try again in 2016. LeMieux didn't exactly accomplish much in his short tenure, and his associations with Republican-turned-Democratic ex-Gov. Charlie Crist wouldn't have helped him in the GOP primary, but he did once memorably dub ex-Rep. Connie Mack "the Charlie Sheen of Florida politics," and for that, we're forever grateful.
• HI-Sen: Democratic ex-Rep. Colleen Hanabusa lost her primary challenge to Sen. Brian Schatz last year by less than 1 percent, so it wasn't inconceivable that she might try again next year. (Schatz was originally appointed to the late Sen. Dan Inouye's seat, so he first had to run in a special election for the final two years of his term. Now he's up for a full six-year term.) However, she's returned to private practice as a labor lawyer, and Honolulu's mayor just appointed her to a board that's overseeing a huge $6 billion rail project, so she's probably out of the running for a rematch.
• NC-Sen: PPP gives us another look at next year's Senate contest and continues to find GOP incumbent Richard Burr well-positioned to win a third term. The head-to-heads are below, with any April numbers in parentheses:
• 48-34 vs. state Senate Minority Leader Dan Blue (47-36)
• 49-40 vs. ex-Sen. Kay Hagan (50-38)
• 48-30 vs. state Sen. Jeff Jackson (46-30)
• 46-31 vs. state Rep. Grier Martin (46-32)
• 43-34 vs. ex-Rep. Mike McIntyre
Not exactly the most encouraging stuff for Team Blue. Burr isn't beloved with a lukewarm 35-36 approval rating, but his opponents are almost all barely known. The exception is Hagan, who posts a 39-51 favorability rating seven months after she narrowly lost re-election. It's worth noting that Elon University gave Hagan
only a 44-43 deficit in late April, and no one else has weighed in recently.
The DSCC is convinced that Hagan will be a better candidate than PPP indicates (or maybe they just think that they're not going to find anyone better) and they've been working to recruit her to challenge Burr. So far, Hagan has been vague about her 2016 plans, and there's no word on when we can expect a decision. Jackson is reportedly interested, though he may be waiting on Hagan. Blue didn't rule anything out in late May but he didn't sound particularly excited, while Martin and McIntyre haven't said anything. Burr isn't a lock with his meh ratings, but it's going to take a good Democratic candidate, plus some favorable political winds, to beat him in this polarized light-red state.
• NV-Sen: Popular GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval has looked extremely unlikely to run for Senate, but he's never outright said no. Now that the state legislative session has concluded, Sandoval says he'll make his decision "very soon," though he didn't sound anymore excited about a Senate bid than before. Sandoval has the right to first refusal but if he makes it clear once and for all that he's not running, attention will turn to Rep. Joe Heck.
Gubernatorial:
• MT-Gov: GOP billionaire Greg Gianforte has been introducing himself to party activists for months ahead of a likely bid against Democratic incumbent Steve Bullock, though he's never actually publicly expressed interest until now. But Gianforte now says he'll talk to his wife before making his decision, and he didn't give any indication for when he'll make an announcement. Public Service Commission Chairman Brad Johnson is also mulling a bid against Bullock.
• NC-Gov: Public Policy Polling surveys the Tar Heel State's gubernatorial contest and they continue to find a very tight race. GOP incumbent Pat McCrory now trails state Attorney General Roy Cooper 44-41; in April, McCrory held the 44-41 edge. PPP finds that the slippage is mostly from voters who backed Romney in 2012. McCrory recently vetoed two high-profile conservative bills, and it's quite possible that some Republican voters are pissed off enough to temporarily abandon the governor. But needless to say, it's a good bet that this group will come home sooner or later as memories fade, especially when McCrory's allies start blasting Cooper as an unhinged liberal.
McCrory remains unpopular but not reviled, sporting a 38-44 approval rating. Cooper, who announced his campaign last month, starts with a 32-24 favorable rating. A recent Telopinion Research poll for a pro-McCrory group painted a very different picture, giving the governor a hefty 57-32 approval rating. A late April Elon University survey found McCrory's rating at 38-43, and it's very unlikely that a cautious politician like Cooper would be running now if he thought McCrory's numbers were closer to Telopinion's than to PPP and Elon's.
• OR-Gov: Oregon's special gubernatorial election next year hasn't quite taken shape yet, but Democratic Gov. Kate Brown has to be happy with her first set of job approval numbers. Mason-Dixon finds Brown, who was elevated to the post earlier this year from her job as secretary of state after Gov. John Kitzhaber resigned, with a strong 55-24 rating. An April survey from Republican pollster Moore Information also showed Brown doing well against a variety of possible GOP opponents, though she could also face a primary fight if any fellow Democrats decide to be super-ambitious.
• VT-Gov: Gov. Peter Shumlin hasn't looked politically hale ever since his shockingly narrow 1-point escape last year, followed by the collapse of his signature initiative to bring single-payer health care to Vermont and the state's struggles with its own insurance exchange. Shumlin also hasn't yet said whether he'll for a fourth two-year term, and as he dithers, other Democrats have started suggesting they might challenge him in the primary. They include former state Sens. Doug Racine and Matt Dunne (who finished second and fourth, respectively, in the incredibly close 2010 primary, both of them just behind Shumlin), and current state Sen. Anthony Pollina, who could also run in the general under the Progressive Party banner (which he did in 2008, when he actually came in second but still got crushed).
State House Speaker Shap Smith, meanwhile, claims he's "not interested." But if Shumlin were to bail, columnist Paul Heintz says Smith could join a group of Shumlin cabinet officials who might also run if there's an open seat, including Secretary of Natural Resources Deb Markowitz, Secretary of Transportation Sue Minter, and Secretary of Agriculture Chuck Ross.
Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Phil Scott, the GOP's top option, has said he's "considering," and he'd give Republicans a legit shot despite Vermont's reputation as a liberal hippie kingdom. (Republican Jim Douglas served four terms in the aughts, and aside from the LBJ landslide, the state went red in every presidential election from the GOP's founding until Clinton won it in 1992.) With Shumlin's job approvals slipping, it's possible Democrats might actually be better off if he doesn't seek re-election.
House:
• IL-10: The DCCC is officially neutral in the primary between ex-Rep. Brad Schneider and Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering, but there's no question who national Democrats are rooting for. DCCC head Ben Ray Lujan recently headlined a fundraiser for Schneider, and an upcoming event will feature House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and other House Democratic leaders. Rotering posted a good opening fundraising quarter so she can put up a fight, but she'll need to work hard to beat the establishment-backed Schneider. The Democratic nominee will face Republican Rep. Bob Dold! in this affluent suburban Chicago seat.
• MD-08: If you're a fan of crowded primaries in safe seats, then I have some wonderful news. On Wednesday, former Marriott executive Kathleen Matthews announced her campaign to succeed Democratic Senate candidate Chris Van Hollen in this suburban D.C. district. Matthews is married to MSNBC talking head Chris Mathews (who flirted with a 2010 Senate bid in Pennsylvania) but she may be better known locally for her 25-year career as a news anchor.
However, Matthews quickly needed to answer questions about a $2,600 donation she made to Missouri GOP Sen. Roy Blunt in November (she said that Blunt's support on tourism-related issues were important to her) and her primary rivals are going to be digging for more dirt. And she won't lack primary rivals: Mathews will face Dels. Kumar Barve and Ana Sol Gutierrez, state Sen. Jamie Raskin, and former Obama Administration official Will Jawando. Former Montgomery County Councilor Valerie Ervin is also likely to enter the fray, while Dels. Jeff Waldstreicher and Ariana Kelly are considering.
• MS-01: After last month's wild 13-candidate non-partisan primary, we were treated to an anti-climactic runoff on Tuesday. As expected, Republican District Attorney Trent Kelly easily defeated Democrat Walter Zinn 70-30 for the right to succeed the late Alan Nunnelee in this conservative northern Mississippi seat.
• PA-02: Now this is interesting. CrowdPAC, a nonpartisan website where individuals can pledge to support specific candidates for office, recently threw down the gauntlet to 18 different potential challengers to Democratic Rep. Chakah Fattah, who's long been under federal investigation for corruption. If and only if a candidate decides to run, they'll collect the pledges made in their name, which is why the Philadelphia Daily News' William Bender likened CrowdPAC to Kickstarter.
But here's where the story gets upgraded from mere online fantasy. Bender solicited comments from several of the folks listed by CrowdPAC, and people aren't ruling it out! They include several Philadelphians with real profiles, including Philadelphia Gas Works executive Doug Oliver (an also-ran in last month's mayoral primary), District Attorney Seth Williams, City Managing Director Rich Negrin, non-profit executive Cynthia Figueroa, former Philadelphia Redevelopment Authority director Terry Gillen. The only person who explicitly backed Fattah is outgoing Mayor Michael Nutter.
It's often so hard to recruit people to run against incumbents in primaries, but Fattah is very much the kind of guy we need fewer of. So if CrowdPAC can help generate interest in a real challenge to him, that would be awesome.
Other Races:
• San Antonio Mayor: The June 13 runoff between interim Mayor Ivy Taylor and ex-state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte isn't far away, and things are getting nasty on the homestretch. Van de Putte is airing a new spot accusing Taylor and her husband Rodney of "refus[ing] to help police in three violent crimes involving the Taylors. The same gang member later committed a double homicide, murders that could have been prevented."
Brian Chasnoff of the San Antonio Express-News explains the background of the ad. Rodney Taylor declined to file charges against alleged gang member Jacquay Howard after Howard was accused of shooting at his bail-bonds business. Two months later, Howard allegedly fired into a crowd at a carwash and killed two people. Rodney Taylor also didn't file charges when his car was shot and his house was burglarized in two separate incidents years apart. Mayor Taylor is accusing Van de Putte of attacking her family, and she refused to shake Van de Putte's hand at a recent debate. Taylor is also portraying her opponent as being in the pocket of the police union.
According to Chasnoff, both candidates' strategies are aimed at the conservative North Side. While both Taylor and Van de Putte are Democrats, Taylor's more conservative views and supporters helped her perform well with Republican voters in the primary, and those voters are some of the most likely to turn out for a runoff. Van de Putte is hoping that if she can portray Taylor as weak on crime, she can keep North Side turnout low. By contrast, Taylor is trying to energize this group by pitting the union-backed Van de Putte against business interests.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Taniel.
