In 2012, Democratic House candidates earned more votes combined than Republicans did, but the Democratic Party still came nowhere close to reclaiming the chamber. Now, Democrats are faced with the grim reality that they're likely to be locked out of the House until 2022 at the very earliest, barring a wave election that no one can count on.
But it shouldn't be this way. As we'll demonstrate, it's eminently possible to draw nonpartisan congressional districts that give voters a real choice and allow the majority to have its voice heard. Below, you'll find proposed maps for the entire West that reflect these principles.
Arizona — Proposed Map:
Click any map to enlarge
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Independent commission. Deadlocked parties agreed to an independent tiebreaker who sided with the Democrats.
Intended to Favor: Neither
Delegation: 5 Democrats, 4 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 44, Romney 53
Summary: Republicans claimed this map was a Democratic gerrymander, but it only helps Democrats because competitiveness was a criteria in a red state. Of course, Republicans didn't complain when the 2002 maps were favorable to them.
Arizona Republicans became belligerent when the independent tiebreaker sided with the Democrats to pass a map. The GOP-dominated legislature even removed her from her position, though the court reinstated her. Now, Republicans are suing the commission before the Supreme Court in a case that could have potentially disastrous consequences for many issues nationwide that were passed by ballot initiatives. However, the map as passed was not an outright Democratic gerrymander, but resulted from the requirement that commissioners consider competitiveness. In a red state like Arizona, that means a map more helpful to Democrats.
Head below the fold to learn just how helpful.
The above map is not a radical departure from the actual plan. The biggest change concerns the swingy 1st District. It drops the whiter parts of northern Arizona, gains most of Pinal County, and adds Cochise County as well. It contains most of the Native American reservations and would be the most heavily Native American district in the country at 20 percent. By dropping Cochise County, the 2nd District becomes entirely centered on Tucson. The 4th also becomes more dominated by northern Arizona by gaining Flagstaff and dropping Pinal County.
In the Phoenix area, the districts remain fairly similar. The 9th adds more of Scottsdale while shedding more of northern Phoenix. The 5th extends to the suburbs and exurbs in northern Pinal County, while also being the most heavily Mormon of the nine districts.
Politically, the biggest impact is in the 1st District. Romney's margin expands by 4.7 percent. Given that Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick only won by 3.9 percent, that's probably enough to doom her. On the other hand, the average of non-presidential statewide races only shifts 3.2 points more Republican. However, without her home base of Flagstaff, Kirkpatrick probably narrowly loses, but this seat could have gone either way.
In exchange for making the 1st more Republican, the 2nd becomes nearly two points more Democratic. Obama now won the seat and Democratic Rep. Ron Barber would have won in both 2012 and 2014. The 9th District sees its partisanship barely change. Ironically enough, Democrats win an additional seat in 2014 given Kirkpatrick's wider win that year. The 3rd and 7th remain strongly Democratic, Hispanic-majority VRA seats. The 4th, 5th, 6th, and 8th are still safely Republican.
Alaska — At-Large district
California — Actual Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Drawn by: Independent Commission that requires support from Democrats, Republicans, and independents.
Intended to Favor: Neither
Delegation: 38 Democrats, 15 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 60, Romney 37
Summary: This system is the model for the nation in terms of eliminating the influence of self-interested legislators. Some contend the maps are biased in favor of Democrats, but this is due to the VRA instead.
Net Change: Democrats gain zero to one seat.
California's redistricting commission should be the model for reform nationwide. By removing politicians from the process entirely, the commission drew a fair map where communities are appropriately represented. Democrats actually won several more seats than they would have proportionally, showing how the party can win without gerrymandering. This map wouldn't change, though Democrats could have won an additional seat in 2012 if they had managed to find a much stronger candidate in CA-21 than the weak contender they ended up fielding against Republican David Valadao (which they may very well have been able to do if prospective recruits knew that they had a shot at being in the majority under a fair national map).
Colorado — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: State Supreme Court chose the Democratic proposal over the Republican one.
Intended to Favor: Neither
Delegation: 3 Democrats, 4 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 51, Romney 46
Summary: This map is hardly even a gerrymander. The courts picked the Democratic plan because it was fairly nonpartisan compared to the clearly gerrymandered
Republican plan.
Net Change: None
This map is only marginally different than the actual map. The 6th drops its hook around the airport in exchange for Columbine in Jefferson County. Politically, it becomes 1.8 points more Republican, meaning Republican Rep. Mike Coffman likely still wins. However, it is possible Democrats might have gotten a different candidate rather than the weak nominee they fielded whose base was in Denver, but of course this is unknowable.
The 1st, 2nd and 7th remain strongly Democratic while the 3rd, 4th, and 5th are solidly Republican.
Hawaii — Actual Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Drawn by: Bipartisan Commission. Deadlocked parties couldn't agree on a tiebreaker, so the state Supreme Court chose one.
Intended to Favor: Neither
Delegation: 2 Democrats
2012 Vote: Obama 71, Romney 28
Summary: There is essentially nothing wrong with this map.
Net Change: None
Idaho — Actual Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Drawn by: Bipartisan Commission that was evenly divided.
Intended to Favor: Neither
Delegation: 2 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 32, Romney 64
Summary: While splitting the Boise metro area is unfortunate, there is no more optimal alternative. Therefore, this map is acceptable and uniting the metro area would not change the outcome regardless.
Net Change: None
Montana — At-Large district
Nevada — Actual Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Drawn by: State district court chose the Democratic proposal.
Intended to Favor: Neither
Delegation: 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 52, Romney 46
Summary: This court map was chosen from the Democratic proposal, but Republicans effectively did not contest it. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with it.
Net Change: None
New Mexico — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: State Supreme Court-appointed judge chose the Republican proposal.
Intended to Favor: Neither
Delegation: 2 Democrats, 1 Republican
2012 Vote: Obama 53, Romney 43
Summary: This court map was a least change from the prior nonpartisan iteration, but it has minor issues.
Net Change: None
There is no need for the 1st District to contain Torrance County. Albuquerque and suburbs like Rio Rancho fit perfectly into a single district. The 3rd is drawn around it, making this the only enclave district in the country. All three districts are majority minority, with the 3rd having the second highest Native American population at 19 percent.
Politically, the 1st is barely changed, but the 2nd becomes 5.5 points more Republican in exchange for making the 3rd bluer. This wouldn't have changed any outcome, but Democrats would go from being a long shot to having nearly no chance at winning the 2nd.
Oregon — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Bipartisan compromise between the Democratic governor and a divided legislature.
Intended to Favor: Neither
Delegation: 4 Democrats, 1 Republican
2012 Vote: Obama 54, Romney 43
Summary: Republicans agreed to a bipartisan compromise that nonetheless helped out Democrats.
Net Change: Republicans gain zero to one seat.
Republicans, for whatever reason, decided to compromise and pass a mild incumbent-protection gerrymander. This map was mainly drawn by Daily Kos Elections community member James Allen. The 2nd District is barely changed, but the 4th now contains the entire coast. The 5th drops most of its Portland suburbs and becomes more rural. The 1st and 3rd divide Portland along the Willamette River and contain most of the city and its suburbs between the two of them.
Consequently, the 5th District now voted for Romney by 6.3 percent. Moderate Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader is a fairly strong incumbent and very well might have survived. However, Oregon Republicans almost certainly would have run a serious candidate against him and probably have prevailed narrowly. The 2nd remains dark red, while the 1st, 3rd, and 4th are safe for their Democratic incumbents.
Utah — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Republican governor and legislature
Intended to Favor: Republicans
Delegation: 1 Democrat, 3 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 25, Romney 73
Summary: Republicans would have effectively maximized their seats had they not fielded a weak nominee against the lone, strong Democratic incumbent.
Net Change: None
Utah Republicans drew a gerrymander that wasn't quite strong enough to oust Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson in 2012 given the weakness of Mia Love's candidacy. However, this map likely does that very thing, but at the convention or primary by a more liberal Democrat. Romney won the compact 4th District by just 4.6 percent, even with his pro-Mormon boost in the state. Obama easily carried the district by nearly 14 points in 2008. Longtime Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch couldn't even win the seat against his token opposition in 2012, therefore it's very likely even a more liberal Democrat would have won. Every other seat remains very dark red.
Washington — Proposed Map:
Interactive version • District summary stats
Current Map:
Drawn by: Bipartisan Commission. Evenly divided between the two parties, but a Democrat voted for the Republican plan (Democratic governor and legislature lacked a 2/3 majority).
Intended to Favor: Republicans
Delegation: 6 Democrats, 4 Republicans
2012 Vote: Obama 56, Romney 41
Summary: A Democratic commission member voted for the Republican incumbent-protection plan, which was effectively a modest Republican gerrymander.
Net Change: Democrats gain one seat
This map wasn't an outright Republican gerrymander, but it had that effect by moving to protect incumbents. In particular, the way in which King County is drawn is flawed. This iteration keeps the upscale suburbs east of Seattle such as Bellevue in the 8th rather than combining them with more downscale southern King County.
Additionally, there is no need for the 8th to contain any part of Pierce County. Drawing the map this way allows Tacoma to anchor its own district while the 6th takes Olympia. The 3rd is essentially unchanged, while the 4th and 5th are rearranged to be more compact. It is unfortunate that the 8th has to cross the Cascades, but this arrangement makes more sense than splitting the Yakima area, which belongs in an agriculture-heavy eastern Washington district.
The political impact of this map would see Democrats flip the 8th District, home to Republican Rep. Dave Reichert. Obama carried the seat by 15.1 and Reichert nearly lost a redder district even in the 2010 wave. His home base is relocated to the 9th District as well, but he probably wouldn't want to run against Democratic Rep. Adam Smith. It's quite possible Reichert would simply retire given his history of health issues, or have run for governor in 2012 instead.
Aside from the 8th, every district except the 3rd, 4th, and 5th are fairly solid for Democrats. Denny Heck and Derek Kilmer would probably switch districts, with Heck in the 6th and Kilmer in the 10th.
Wyoming — At-Large district
By comparing the Democratic seat share in each state to Obama's vote share, we can approximate the disportionality in each state. Overall, Democrats would have won six more seats than Obama’s vote share would have awarded, which is entirely thanks to California. This disparity effectively counteracts the pro-Republican bias in the Midwest.
In total there would be no net change in party, which is unsurprising given how many states in this region were not outright partisan gerrymanders.
Methodology
The criteria for drawing optimal districts are numbered below in order prioritization, but it is important that these factors be balanced with one another.
1. Ignore partisanship
2. Comply with the Voting Rights Act's demand for majority-minority districts
3. Utilize communities of interest like shared culture or economic class
4. Minimize unnecessary city and county splits
5. Geographic, not geometric compactness
You can find further details on the methodology used to construct these districts here, as well as all of the associated data files.
For all of our posts in the Nonpartisan Redistricting series, click here.
