Democrat Charlie Crist
Leading Off:
• FL-13: After the Florida Supreme Court ordered the GOP state legislature to move several heavily Democratic St. Petersburg neighborhoods into this swing seat, ex-Gov. Charlie Crist began eyeing a campaign here. Crist lives in one of the areas that's all-but-certain to be transferred from FL-14 to FL-13 and he said on Monday that if the new 13th includes his home, "I intend on running to serve the people again." And there's really no clever Republican map that can both pass muster with the court and keep Crist out of FL-13. The GOP used Tampa Bay to connect this corner of St. Pete with the safely blue FL-14, but the state Supreme Court called them out on this in their decision.
Crist carried the old version of FL-13 50-42 during his unsuccessful campaign against Republican Gov. Rick Scott last year, and the missing chunk of southeast St. Petersburg voted for him 81-16, so there's no doubt that he's popular here. But Crist may not have a clear shot at the Democratic nomination. Former Obama Administration official Eric Lynn has been running here for a while and has already raised a credible $402,000, and Lynn has made it clear that he's not going to be deferring to Crist. State Rep. Dwight Dudley has also expressed interest in running regardless of what Crist does, though he did admit that the former governor's decision will effect his calculations.
Republican incumbent David Jolly announced on Monday that he was giving up this seat to run for the Senate (see our FL-Sen item below), and the GOP isn't going to have an easy time holding it under the new map. Team Red's best candidate is almost certainly ex-St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker, and he admits he is considering. The new district isn't likely to be unwinnable for the GOP even without Baker, but Democrats definitely start out favored here.
Senate:
• FL-Sen: Until a few weeks ago, Republican Rep. David Jolly was pretty lukewarm about running to succeed departing Sen. Marco Rubio. But Jolly quickly changed his tune after the Florida Supreme Court ordered the state legislature to redraw his 13th District to take in several heavily Democratic areas, and he announced on Monday that he'll run for the Senate. Tea partying Rep. Ron DeSantis, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, and businessman Todd Wilcox are already in the GOP primary, and Rep. Jeff Miller is likely to join them soon; ex-state Attorney General Bill McCollum is also eyeing the race.
Jolly won his House seat in a closely-fought 2014 special election, and he's using his victory to argue that he has what it takes to win in swingy Florida. But Jolly has a reputation as a moderate: He's one of the few members of the GOP caucus to support same-sex marriage, and he voted against a Republican plan to change Medicare. Jolly is naturally casting himself as "a conservative who has gotten results," but his primary opponents are going to use very different language to describe him.
Jolly's positions may hold him back in the primary, but he could slip through with a plurality if his opponents do enough damage to one another. Jolly is also the only GOP candidate to have a base in the voter-rich Tampa Bay area, which could give him a boost. In any case, this crowded primary will be nothing but fascinating to watch. The winner will face either Rep. Patrick Murphy, who is the favorite of national Democrats, or fellow Rep. Alan Grayson.
• FL-Sen: Rep. Alan Grayson recently declared that "Democrats are willing to crawl over hot coals naked" for him, but so far, none of the major progressive groups seems keen to strip down and get scalded. The National Journal's Andrea Drusch notes that both the PCCC and DFA have declined to endorse Grayson, and she quotes Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas saying that it's "amazing how easily he turns off even potential allies."
As Drusch explains, the reasons for this reticence are well-known to readers of the Digest, and center largely around Grayson's infamously incendiary mouth. There are also the concerns about the hedge funds he continues to operate, which appear to contravene House ethics rules and also just present ugly optics, since some are registered in the Cayman Islands. It's left unstated in the piece, but you can draw a straight line from these concerns to worries that Grayson is less electable in a general election than his Democratic primary rival, Rep. Patrick Murphy, even if the moderate Murphy does not have the sort of profile progressive activists are apt to get excited about.
At the same time, Grayson is not the progressive dreamboat he's so often made out to be, both by admirers and especially by himself. In recent weeks, for instance, he's sounded hawkish notes on the Iran nuclear deal and expressed opposition to increasing taxes on the rich—a problematic pose for someone worth $30 million. In Drusch's piece, Grayson says he's "been on MSNBC over 100 times," almost as though that, in and of itself, is a progressive credential. In that way, he seems to resemble another frequent MSNBC guest whose strident rhetoric didn't necessarily match up with his actual views: former New York Rep. Anthony Weiner.
It's also worth noting that Grayson raised just $197,000 in the last quarter and has a mere $71,000 cash-on-hand. (Murphy, by contrast, took in $1.4 million and has $2.5 million in the bank.) Grayson didn't announce his Senate bid until after the end of the quarter, but more often than not, candidates who are considering statewide campaigns ramp up their fundraising even before their official kick-off; for instance, GOP Rep. Jeff Miller, who's in a similar position, took in $652,000. Grayson does still have his online fundraising network, and of course, he can self-fund (his House campaign is still $2.4 million in debt to him), but his second-quarter haul was not indicative of someone laying the groundwork for a major race.
• IL-Sen: Like they have for Joe Heck in Nevada, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has gone up with another spot on behalf of a Republican hoping to win a Senate election in a blue state in 2016, Illinois Sen. Mark Kirk. The ads are similar: Both reference the two candidates' military backgrounds, and both highlight their "bipartisan" records. The Kirk spot is almost downright liberal, though. Says the narrator: "He's working to preserve and keep the Great Lakes clean." Politico says the buy is $550,000, but the Chicago Sun-Times said it was $377,000.
Meanwhile, has Kirk apologized for his berserk radio interview last week in which he brayed that President Obama wants "to get nukes to Iran" and compared him to Neville Chamberlain? He has not. All Kirk would say is that he got "too carried away. I've been pretty angry about the Iran deal." Well, that's just what Illinois wants in a senator: someone who gets so furious about matters nuclear that he can't contain himself and spouts off outrageous rhetoric.
• IN-Sen: Democrats have an outside shot at putting this seat into play, but ex-Rep. Baron Hill isn't exactly impressing with his fundraising. Hill brought in just $151,000 since he launched his campaign in mid-May, and he has only $143,000 on hand, a pretty bad total even for a longshot pickup. Democratic donors will probably take more interest in Hill if tea partying Rep. Marlin Stutzman claims the GOP nomination, but it doesn't look like Hill will have the resources to go toe-to-toe with the more establishment-oriented Rep. Todd Young (who unseated Hill in 2010).
• MD-Sen: We knew Donna Edwards was getting badly outraised by fellow Rep. and Democratic primary rival Chris Van Hollen, but we didn't know it was this bad. Edwards reports having only $419,000 cash on hand, while Van Hollen's camp says he has $3.5 million in the bank. Maryland is split between the pricey Baltimore and D.C. media markets and serious candidates need to spend plenty of money to air ads statewide. Edwards was never going to match Van Hollen's cash, but she needs to narrow the huge gap if she's going to get her message out.
• NV-Sen: Las Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman, an independent who, before she was elected, used to be a Democrat, just endorsed GOP Rep. Joe Heck for Senate. But will Goodman actually put her back into getting Heck elected? And does she even have much to offer institutionally if she does? That we can't say. One group that does have juice, though, is continuing to help Heck: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce just tossed in another $400,000 to keep running the same anodyne positive spot touting Heck's "bipartisan" credentials that it put $350,000 behind last week.
Gubernatorial:
• VT-Gov: Retired Wall Street banker Bruce Lisman only expressed some mild interest in this open seat last month, but he's now saying he's seriously considering it. Lisman has usually donated to Republicans and he's been an outspoken critic of outgoing Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin, but he identifies as an independent and says he's not sure what party label he'd run under. Needless to say, Democrats would be delighted if Lisman ran as an independent and cost the GOP some votes.
House:
• AZ-02: Uh, no. GOP Rep. Martha McSally's second-quarter fundraising report, as originally filed, indicated she had received almost $5 million in donations in the last six months, which is, of course, flat-out un-possible. Local reporters flagged the error last week, but it took McSally's campaign several days to file an amended report, which still shows an impressive $1.7 million haul so far this year—but $5 mil it ain't.
So what happened? It looks like McSally's team failed to reset the clock on the "cycle-to-date" portion of her FEC forms, so she was counting all the money she raised last cycle as well. It's a minor goof, in the scheme of things, but as the Tucson Sentinel elaborates, McSally's received many letters from the FEC pointing out other errors and a lack of sufficient disclosure, and it appears she's failed to make corrections in a timely manner for other problems. But for someone who won office by just 167 votes in a recount in a GOP wave year, there's not much margin for error.
• FL-02: Back in March, ex-Rep. Steve Southerland showed no interest in seeking a rematch with Democrat Gwen Graham, who narrowly unseated him last year. But court-ordered redistricting is likely to transform the 2nd District into a safely red seat, and Southerland is reportedly taking another look at a comeback.
SaintPetersBlog quotes an unnamed GOP fundraiser who says that Southerland is "praying about what to do." State Department of Elder Affairs' general counsel Mary Thomas is already running, but Southerland is asking his allies to stay neutral until he's made up his mind.
If Southerland runs, he'd start out with plenty of name recognition and connections. But his defeat during last year's GOP wave didn't exactly do wonders for his reputation: While the new FL-02 is likely to be unlosable for Team Red, Republicans may still be reluctant to back someone with that kind of blemish. Southerland also works for a Washington lobbying group now, something his would-be primary rivals wouldn't be reluctant to hit him with. But if enough Republicans run here, the well-known Southerland could definitely have a shot at emerging with the GOP nod.
• FL-14: Mid-decade redistricting is about to move several heavily Democratic areas from this seat into FL-13, and this Tampa district is going to get a bit redder. Obama won the current FL-14 65-34 and Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor can afford to lose some friendly turf, and most local Republicans are still reluctant to challenge her. But Florida Veterans Affairs director Mike Prendergast, who served as Gov. Rick Scott's first chief of staff, is interested in giving it a try.
Prendergast ran for a version of this seat in 2010, and he lost 60-40. Prendergast, who had no political experience until his congressional campaign, was soon chosen as Scott's chief of staff, but he was reassigned after only 6 months. Prendergast has more connections than he did during his last campaign so he could raise some real money, but Castor's unlikely to be in any real danger unless redistricting hurts her much more than expected.
• FL-18: While Palm Beach County Commissioner Melissa McKinlay has been winning over some local support for her bid for this light red seat, the DCCC evidently isn't impressed with her. Politico's Marc Caputo reports that they've been working to recruit Randy Perkins, the wealthy owner of the debris removal service AshBritt Inc. Perkins hasn't announced anything, but he's told Democrats that he's willing to spend as much as $5 million of his own money. If Perkins gets in, he'll face a crowded primary with McKinlay, Priscilla Taylor (another Palm Beach County commissioner), and lawyer Jonathan Chane.
Perkins has an interesting life story. He and his wife were barely getting by when Hurricane Andrew hit in 1992, but he was quickly hired as a hurricane-cleanup contractor when he borrowed two wood chippers to help after the storm. But AshBritt has been accused of overcharging local governments and using its political connections to acquire contracts, though there have never been criminal charges. And while Perkins has mostly donated to Democrats over the years, his would-be primary rivals are unlikely to let voters forget that Perkins and AshBritt have given plenty to Republicans.
We have another crowded primary on the GOP side, with five notable Republicans currently running and several others interested. But radio host K.C. Ingram Traylor, a prominent opponent of a proposed Miami-to-Orlando rail service, will not be joining them.
• IA-03: Iowa Democrats have their first candidate against freshman David Young in the swingy 3rd District. Businessman Desmund Adams raised some decent money when he ran for the state Senate in 2012, though his 57-43 defeat in a district Romney carried 52-47 wasn't incredibly impressive.
A few other Democrats are mulling bids here. Ex-Gov. Chet Culver would easily be the most recognizable candidate, but labor is still angry with some of his actions. State Sen. Matt McCoy has been publicly considering, though national Democrats fear that his past ethical issues will hurt him in a general election. Jim Mowrer, who ran a well-funded but unsuccessful effort in the 4th District last year, is also expressing interest.
• IN-09: It's pretty uncommon for a state attorney general to run for the House instead of for Senate or governor: The joke after all is that "AG" stands for "aspiring governor." (No, it's not a particularly funny joke. But it's better than "Why did the attorney generals cross the road? They didn't: The plural for attorney general is attorneys general.") But Greg Zoeller is venturing down the road less traveled, joining state Sens. Erin Houchin and Brent Waltz in the GOP primary for this safely red Southern Indiana seat.
• MD-08: We wrote last month about former Marriott executive and TV news anchor Kathleen Matthews' $2,600 donation to Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri, which is kind of a problem for her since Blunt is, you know, a Republican, and Matthews is running in the Democratic primary for Rep. Chris Van Hollen's seat. In the interim, though, she still hasn't figured out how to handle the issue, since her latest explanation doesn't make her sound very good:
I was making that contribution on behalf of my company saluting what I think is somebody who is willing to work across the aisle to create jobs.
We'd like to think Matthews knows that corporate political donations are illegal in the U.S., and that she doesn't really mean she was acting as Marriott's agent. But even in the most charitable reading, she's still saying she was hoping to grease the governmental wheels on behalf of her employer. We all know that this happens a million times a day in this country, but it's the kind of thing voters
don't like about America.
The radio host who interviewed Matthews gave her an easy way to make up for it all, though, by asking if she supported Blunt's Democratic opponent this cycle, Secretary of State Jason Kander. Matthews booted it, though, saying "I have to look at that race. I don't know." Unless "Jason Kander" is an anagram of "Alvin Greene" (it's not), you're supposed to say you support the Democrat—and anyhow, it's not like Matthews hasn't had plenty of time to do her due diligence. Matthews raised an impressive $501,000 last quarter, but she faces serious competition for this open seat and will have to up her political game in order to win.
• NV-03: Businessman and perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian is hoping that he can beat state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson by turning the GOP primary into a referendum on a recent tax hike Roberson helped pass. But think tank head Andy Matthews just announced he would also seek the Republican nomination, and he's deploying the same anti-tax rhetoric as Tarkanian. Roberson, who has the support of most influential Silver State Republicans, already looked like the clear favorite, and he's only going to get more breathing room if Tarkanian and Martin split the rabid anti-tax vote.
Other Races:
• NE Ballot: In a surprising move that cut deeply against Nebraska's reputation as an ultraconservative state, the Republican-dominated legislature repealed the state's death penalty laws earlier this year—and over-rode a veto by GOP Gov. Pete Ricketts. Death penalty proponents were predictably furious, and now they're working to put a measure on the ballot next year that would reinstate capital punishment. Even opponents, reports the New York Times, fear that organizers have a "good shot at success."
They're also getting help from an interesting source: Ricketts himself, who is personally very wealthy and has donated $100,000 to the cause. (So did his super-rich dad, TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts.) Is there any precedent in any state for a governor financially backing a ballot measure to undo the actions of his or her own legislature, particularly when it's run by the same party?
• Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso fills us in:
Virginia HD-74: I don't normally cover elections without one of the two major parties involved, but this warrants a mention because it's (hopefully) the next to last chapter in the Joe Morrissey saga. This is the seat he held, resigned from, won in a special election, and resigned from again to run for a state Senate seat outside of this district.
The candidates are the same as on the November ballot: Democrat Lamont Bagby, a member of the Henrico County School Board, and independent David Lambert, son of the late state Sen. Bennie Lambert. I also bring this one up because it's a bit of a trivia answer now, as this is the second special election that has been held for this seat in the same year. When is the last time that happened? I, for one, don't know the answer to that.
Wisconsin SD-33: This is an open Republican seat located in everyone's favorite Republican bastion, Waukesha County. The candidates are Democrat Sherryll Shaddock, who ran for this seat in 2014 and lost 74-26, and Republican State Rep. Chris Kapenga. The district went 66-33 for Mitt Romney in 2012, so don't expect much excitement here.
Grab Bag:
• FL Redistricting: The Florida legislature has announced that they will hold a special session from Aug. 10 to Aug. 21 devoted to redrawing the state's congressional districts. Redistricting fans are strongly discouraged from lining up this early to secure good seats, though we do encourage you to dress up as a Florida state legislator or member of Congress. Hardcore political nerds can even cosplay as a past, present, or possible future congressional district, though this could adversely affect your chances of getting into the audience for the hearings.
The state Supreme Court has ordered the legislature to produce a new map by Sept. 25, and the court will need to approve it before it can go into effect for 2016. If the legislature doesn't produce an acceptable map by then, the court may play cartographer and create its own congressional districts.
• Voting: This is a great idea. California's Democratic-controlled legislature is about to pass a measure that would consolidate many local elections with state elections, in order to help boost turnout. Here's how the law would work: Starting in 2018, if voter turnout in a given "political subdivision" (such as a city or a school board) is less than a quarter of the average turnout for that same subdivision in the last four statewide general elections, then that jurisdiction will be required to hold any future elections at the same time as the state does.
This is awesome because it would undoubtedly boost voter turnout, so of course Democrats were in favor of the legislation while Republicans mostly opposed it. What's more, if it's successful, California could serve as a model for other states that face pitiful turnout in local elections (which is basically almost all of them). The Senate and Assembly have both passed slightly different versions of the law, so once those differences are ironed out, the bill will go to Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown for his signature. He doesn't seem to have said anything publicly about it whether he supports the idea, but it would be a shame if he killed it.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, and Daniel Donner.