(click to enlarge)
Leading Off:
• FL-02: For those wondering why so many observers are confident that Florida's 2nd District will get redder following the upcoming round of court-ordered re-redistricting, the rationale lies in the court's decision regarding the 5th District, as Stephen Wolf explains. Right now, the serpentine 5th stretches across a 200-mile run from Jacksonville to south to Orlando; the state Supreme Court recently determined that this was an impermissible gerrymander designed to benefit Republicans by packing too many black voters (who lean heavily toward the Democrats) into a single seat—and thus keeping them out of surrounding seats. That contravened the Fair Districts amendments that voters added to the state constitution in 2010 and which form the basis of the court's ruling.
However, the 5th District is also over 40 percent black, meaning it's home to enough black voters such that they're able to elect a candidate of their choice—African-American Democrat Corrine Brown has long held the seat—which in turn means that the district is protected under the Fair Districts amendments.
To maintain a sufficient black population for the 5th District to keep sending a black Democrat to Congress (though likely someone other than Brown), the only more compact alternative to the current vertical configuration is a horizontal district that stretches from Jacksonville to Tallahassee, which has a sizable black population of its own. (Indeed, the court ruled that the 5th "must be redrawn in an East-West manner.") Wolf concludes such a seat would be similar demographically to the current setup; any other alternatives simply wouldn't contain an adequate number of black voters.
In addition, dismantling the southern portion of the 5th would likely turn some Republican districts bluer, as black voters, previously packed into that Orlando tendril, would now get spread across other seats. But it would also cause a major ripple effect in the 2nd District, current held by Rep. Gwen Graham, because Tallahassee forms its Democratic core. Without Florida's capital city, just about any plausible version of the 2nd would become much more Republican.
One possibility, drawn by Matthew Isbel, is shown above. Isbel estimates that the district shown in red would have given Barack Obama just 35 percent of the vote, a steep drop from the 47 percent he won under the current lines, and enough to put it out of reach for Democrats under any set of circumstances. That's why Democrats are so down on the future of this district, and it's why Graham isn't ruling out a bid for Senate.
Senate:
• CA-Sen: So I guess Rep. Loretta Sanchez does have some friends after all. Even though most top establishment figures long ago lent their support to state Attorney General Kamala Harris, nine members of the House just endorsed Sanchez. But all of them are, like Sanchez, from Southern California (Harris' base is in the north); most are freshman or sophomores; and one is her sister, Linda. Just about the only name on there with any suction is Janice Hahn (and maybe also San Diego's Susan Davis), but she's ditching Congress to run for L.A. County supervisor.
• PA-Sen: As expected, Democrat Katie McGinty has officially resigned as chief of staff to Gov. Tom Wolf, a position she accepted after Wolf won last year's gubernatorial race. Everyone thinks she'll run for Senate now, setting up a primary fight with ex-Rep. Joe Sestak. The only way that wouldn't happen is if Wolf were to try installing her as head of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, something he tried to do after securing the Democratic nomination for governor last year. He was unsuccessful, because then-chair Jim Burn refused to step aside. But Burn just announced his own resignation earlier this week, so there's an opening there, too.
Gubernatorial:
• LA-Gov: Market Research Insight takes a look at this October's jungle primary, and their results are a little more interesting than the usual fare:
• State Rep. John Bel Edwards (D): 30
• Sen. David Vitter (R): 24
• Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle (R): 14
• Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne (R): 12
Pretty much
every other released poll has shown Vitter and Edwards (in that order) taking the two runoff spots, with either Angelle or Dardenne very far back. While a 10-point gap is still pretty large, it would be utterly astonishing if Angelle somehow denied Vitter a spot in the November runoff. However, Vitter and his allied super PAC have more money than God (I'm assuming God has
less than the $9.3 million the pro-Vitter forces reported in July) and they haven't aired any spots yet, so he should be able to boost his support.
But the plot thickens. This survey was conducted in late June for John Georges, the owner of The Advocate (the newspaper based in Baton Rouge, not the national LGBTQ-interest magazine with the same name) and a group of legislative lobbyists. Georges ran for governor as an independent in 2007 and for mayor of New Orleans as a Democrat in 2010, and he's occasionally flirted with another campaign. He hasn't publicly expressed interest in running this year, but MRI tested him in place of Edwards:
• Sen. David Vitter (R): 32
• Businessman John Georges (D): 25
• Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle (R): 13
• Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne (R): 12
In a hypothetical runoff with Vitter, Edwards trails 44-34 while Georges loses 45-31. If Georges is seriously thinking about running, it's strange that he'd release a poll showing him doing worse against Vitter than the guy who's actually in. Then again, the
Lafayette Independent didn't say where they got the poll from, so it's possible Georges didn't intend for it to be public. We do know that the poll wasn't done for
The Advocate: The
Independent says the Baton Rouge paper's editors decided not to report it because of George's role.
House:
• AZ-02: State Rep. Victoria Steele is the only Democrat challenging GOP Rep. Martha McSally, and she's trying to keep things that way. Steele just rolled out a list of endorsements from 16 fellow members of the state House, plus one state senator, Assistant Minority Leader Steve Farley. There are only 24 Democrats in the Arizona House to begin with, so Steele's locked up most of them.
• AZ-04: We kidded around a bit when Republican Gov. Doug Ducey named former state House Speaker Andy Tobin as director of Arizona's Department of Weights and Measures earlier this year, but now that colonial-sounding agency is going the way of the horse and buggy. Turns out the department is responsible for consumer protection—like making sure a gallon of gas is a gallon of gas—which of course means regulation, which of course means Republicans spit on it with their very souls.
And funny enough, Tobin is completely on board with Ducey's dismantling of his department and sending its various pieces off to other agencies thereupon to get ignored; in fact, Tobin seems to be one of the architects of it. But once this two-man conservative wrecking crew finishes the job, Tobin will be out of one, come year's end. So could that mean he will, after all, make another run for Congress? Tobin recently said he wouldn't try again in the 1st District, where he lost a disappointing race last year, but he did hint at the possibility of challenging Rep. Paul Gosar, a fellow Republican, in the 4th. With no more weights to weigh and measures to measure, perhaps Tobin will give it a go.
• IA-01: Well, here we go again. Former state House Speaker Pat Murphy, who lost a race he should have won last year, even in spite of the GOP wave, has decided that he'll try a second time. Cedar Rapids City Councilwoman Monica Vernon, who lost to Murphy in the Democratic primary last year, announced months ago and had gathered a decent chunk of establishment support behind her, including Iowa Rep. Dave Loebsack and EMILY's List, when Murphy unexpectedly began saying he might run again.
Vernon tried to deter Murphy by rolling out an endorsement from Rep. Steny Hoyer, the number two-ranking Democrat in the House, but Murphy responded with a survey showing him with a 43-34 lead in the primary. His poll memo also contained veiled threats that suggested he was prepared to go negative on Vernon, perhaps over the fact that she used to be a Republican.
Anyhow, the race is for real now, and we'll see if Murphy can beat Vernon once more. However, after his loss to free-range conservative Rod Blum, Murphy may have fewer friends these days, and he's also starting off well behind Vernon, who's already banked $484,000.
And Murphy might want to make sure his website is in working order before doing too much else. You'd think that wresting your web presence back from a Chinese company promising "same day loan service" would have been a pre-launch priority, but evidently, naaah.
• NC-12: Freshman Democrat Alma Adams pulled off a decisive victory in last year's primary, but one foe sounds ready to challenge her again. Ex-state Sen. and 2014 runner-up Malcolm Graham hinted back in May that he was interested and he confirmed he's still looking at this safely blue seat in an interview with McClatchy, saying that he's "always had an interest in serving. And my interest didn't stop with losing the election."
Adams hasn't done much to alienate her constituents during her time in office, so it's hard to see her losing. But geography works against her: The Charlotte area makes up the bulk of this seat, while Adams hails from the district's smaller Greensboro segment. This worked in Adams' favor in 2014 when she was the only major Greensboro candidate facing several Charlotte politicians. But Graham is hoping that if he's the only contender from the Queen City, he can pull off an upset this time.
Adams is more than aware that she needs to boost her name recognition in Charlotte, and she's made over 40 trips to the city since January. Graham's last campaign was also hindered by weak fundraising and while Adams only has $62,000 on hand, she proved she can raise real money if she needs to.
Other Races:
• Salt Lake City Mayor: Incumbent Ralph Becker is up for re-election this fall, and two new surveys suggest that he's in real danger. On behalf of UtahPolicy.com, Dan Jones & Associates surveys the Aug. 11 non-partisan primary and finds Becker leading former state Rep. and fellow Democrat Jackie Biskupski only 27-24, with Salt Lake City Council Chairman Luke Garrott taking a distant third with only 6 percent.
SurveyUSA also polls on behalf of the Salt Lake Tribune and they show Becker in even worse shape: He trails Biskupski 33-21, with Garrott at 8. The two candidates with the most votes will advance to the Nov. 3 general and while no one-on-one matchups were tested, it's hard to feel good about Becker's chances.
So why is this seven-year incumbent in so much trouble? A recent controversy involving the city's now-former police chief has dominated the headlines in recent months. Chris Burbank was forced to resign in June after three police officers sued the city over sexual harassment: Becker accused Burbank of not doing enough to deal with the problem, while Burbank said that Becker was trying to save his re-election campaign by getting rid of him. Biskupski argued that Becker's move was "too little, too late," and voters seem to agree with her. However, an April Dan Jones poll found Becker only taking a third of the vote even though half of respondents said they had a favorable view of him, so voters may just want someone new.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, and Daniel Donner.
