Democratic ex-Sen. Russ Feingold
:
• WI-Sen: The good news for Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is that Marquette no longer has him down 16 points in his battle for re-election against Democrat Russ Feingold. The bad news is that he still trails by a 47-42 margin, which, suffice it to say, is not where an incumbent wants to find himself. It's not clear why the gap would have closed so much—this early in the campaign, there really isn't any good reason for polls to shift like this—but even so, the rest of Marquette's findings aren't very helpful for Johnson, either.
For one, Feingold remains more popular, with a 42-30 favorability rating, compared to 30-31 for Johnson. For another, Hillary Clinton is doing well, beating Jeb Bush 47-42 and Scott Walker 52-42. (As an aside, it's amazing that Walker performs worse than Jeb.) If Clinton were to carry Wisconsin, as you'd expect, then Johnson would need a lot of her supporters to not vote a straight ticket and instead support him over Feingold. But in 2012, Republican ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson only performed about 1.5 net points better than Mitt Romney in that year's Senate race, and Thompson had a much more moderate profile than Johnson.
And it's even possible that Marquette's new numbers are actually too optimistic for RoJo. A conservative group called Restoration PAC recently released internal polling that had Feingold ahead 50-42. If that's the best that Republicans can come up with, well, that's not very good. (Restoration tried to argue that their recent round of TV ads, the size of which they did not disclose, had improved Johnson's standing. They should have just waited for Marquette!)
Marquette has a good reputation for accuracy, but again, this is a lot of movement, so let's see what other pollsters say. Either way, though, Johnson is still in trouble.
Senate:
• AZ-Sen: It's Gravis, so believe what you will, but they've got state Sen. Kelli Ward beating Sen. John McCain in the GOP primary, 45-36. Those numbers are probably too good to be true but they aren't completely out of the realm of possibility, since PPP found McCain beating Chemtrail Kelli by a fairly soft 44-31 spread back in May. Meanwhile, Gravis has McCain on top of Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick 48-35, while Ward beats her by a much narrower 43-38 margin. PPP, by contrast, had McCain leading Kirkpatrick 42-36 (they didn't test a matchup with Ward).
• FL-Sen: This is completely gross: Florida Rep. David Jolly, a Republican running for Senate, is slated to appear as a "guest of honor" at a concert later this month hosted by the Church of Scientology celebrating the centennial of the town of Clearwater, where the "church" has a headquarters (which they call, in their paramilitary fashion, "Flag Land Base"). For those unfamiliar, Scientology is a cult masquerading as a religion that virtually enslaves its most loyal members, who spend their lives toiling in wretched conditions for the organization for almost no pay and are threatened with "disconnection" from their family and friends if they ever try to leave.
The story of Scientology has been well-publicized, particularly by Lawrence Wright, whose detailed, gripping exposé, Going Clear, is a must-read. (The book was also made into an HBO documentary earlier this year.) There is literally no way that Jolly is unfamiliar with Scientology's appalling record, but that hasn't stopped him from associating with the group. Last year, he was a "special guest" at a fundraiser for state Attorney General Pam Bondi that was hosted by major Scientology donors and specifically pitched to other Scientologists.
The Scientologists have long been known for digging their hooks into politicians, Democrats and Republicans alike—a move that provides the group with a veneer of respectability and ostensibly helps shield it from unwanted inquiries into its revolting practices. (Tom Cruise was used in the same way, until he went nuts.) If Jolly succeeds in winning a promotion to the Senate, he'd be quite the ally for Scientology, which is all the more reason to make sure he loses.
At least one fellow Republican's unconcerned about (or unaware of) Jolly's associations, though: Fellow Rep. Rich Nugent, who represents a seat in north-central Florida that includes the notorious retirement community The Villages, just endorsed Jolly's Senate campaign.
• LA-Sen: Assuming Republican Sen. David Vitter wins this fall's gubernatorial contest, it's up to him to appoint a successor for the final year of his Senate term. State Treasurer and 2008 GOP nominee John Kennedy has been pretty quiet about his plans, but there's little doubt that he's interested in either being appointed or running for the full term next year.
While Kennedy faces no serious opposition for re-election this October, he's launching a $1 million ad buy to increase his name recognition ahead of his possible Senate bid. The National Journal also reports that a super PAC aligned with Kennedy is already soliciting contributions. At this point, Kennedy's moves are mostly aimed at proving to Vitter that he's strong enough to hold onto this seat. Of course, it's far from guaranteed that Kennedy will make it to the 2016 ballot in the end. Both Reps. John Fleming and Charles Boustany are jockeying for the appointment, and there's no word if Kennedy is willing to run against either of them if they get it.
• NC-Sen: PPP is out with the non-Deez Nuts portions of their North Carolina survey, and they find that while GOP Sen. Richard Burr with the edge against a quartet of hypothetical Democratic foes, his leads are a bit less intimidating than they were last month:
• 44-37 vs. Spring Lake Mayor Chris Rey
• 44-36 vs. state Rep. Duane Hall
• 43-36 vs. ex-state House Majority Whip Deborah Ross
• 42-35 vs. ex-Rep. Heath Shuler
Of these four Democrats only Shuler was tested in July, and Burr
led him by a similar 44-36. However, Burr beat last month's Democrats anywhere between 8 and 14 points (other PPP surveys have shown similar results), while he leads this crop by a smaller 7 to 8 percent margin. None of the nine Democrats tested over the last two months are well known (Shuler is the least anonymous of them, and 67 percent of respondents still don't have an opinion of him), so it's unlikely that new selection of candidates made any real difference.
Weirdly though, Burr actually went from a 28-39 approval rating in July to 31-37 now. We'll just have to wait for more info to see if anything's changed or if this is just a blip: While a high-single digit lead is still pretty good for Burr, it's a bit less intimidating than his previous performances.
While no serious Democrats have jumped into the race yet, there's been a bit of movement over the last month. Hall recently formed an exploratory committee while Rey and Ross have each publicly expressed interest. Shuler has been publicly evasive but is also reportedly looking at a bid.
Gubernatorial:
• LA-Gov: On Thursday, New Orleans City Council President Jason Williams announced that he would stay out of this fall's gubernatorial race. Williams could have taken Democratic voters from state Rep. John Bel Edwards in October's jungle primary and given Republicans Scott Angelle or Jay Dardenne a better chance to reach the November runoff with GOP Sen. David Vitter, but that won't be happening now. The filing deadline is Sept. 10 and because it's very easy to get on the ballot in Louisiana (it only costs $1,125 to get on the gubernatorial ballot as a major party candidate) we could see some very last-minute bids, but right now it still looks like Edwards will have the Democratic field to himself.
• NC-Gov: PPP takes another look at this contest, but finds that little has changed since July. Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Gov. Pat McCrory 42-39, about the same as the 43-41 margin they found last month. McCrory's approval rating has also barely changed, and now stands at 35-48.
Plenty of Republicans remain angry with McCrory due to his feud with the very conservative legislature. However, while McCrory only posts a 56-28 approval rating with his own party, he doesn't appear to be in any danger of losing renomination. PPP tested a very hypothetical primary with Lt. Gov. Dan Forrest and found the governor up 60-20. However, it doesn't seem that too many conservatives are staying away from McCrory out of spite. Obama and Romney voters are about equally undecided: While Cooper does a bit better among Obama voters than McCrory does among Romney voters (76-8 vs. 71-12), it's not dramatic enough to indicate that pissed off conservatives are holding McCrory back much right now.
House:
• CT-04: GOP state Rep. John Shaban, who silently filed paperwork with the FEC last month, has now announced that he'll run against Democratic Rep. Jim Himes. Shaban briefly ran for the Republican nomination last year but dropped out before the primary. He'll have a hard time picking up this seat from Himes, who is an excellent fundraiser, particularly in a presidential year.
• House: The Human Rights Campaign has released a batch of polling from Clarity Campaigns on seven different swingy House districts. The surveys are designed to test support for the Equality Act, which would ban job and housing discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation or gender identity. The bill is broadly popular, with support ranging from 46 percent (WI-01) to 56 percent (IL-03)—notably, the home of anti-gay Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski—and opposition peaking at 31 percent (NV-04).
HRC also tested a few actual head-to-head matchups, some between incumbents and actual challengers, and some featuring generic opponents. First, the human-vs.-human contests:
• FL-26: Carlos Curbelo (R-inc): 38, Annette Taddeo (D): 38
• IL-10: Bob Dold (R-inc): 44, Brad Schneider (D): 40
• NJ-05: Scott Garrett (R-inc): 46, Josh Gottheimer (D): 33
The most interesting numbers here are from FL-26, which have Curbelo performing weakly against Taddeo, a candidate who has not had much success in several prior runs for office. The other two races are about where you'd expect, though note that Schneider faces a primary with Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering.
And here are the generic pairings:
• IA-03: David Young (R-inc): 42, Generic Democrat: 41
• IL-03: Dan Lipinski (D-inc): 51, Generic Republican: 20
• NV-04: Cresent Hardy (R-inc): 43, Generic Democrat: 45
• WI-01: Paul Ryan (R-inc): 47, Generic Democrat: 38
Hardy's in trouble and Young's not in strong shape, but neither of those are surprises. Of course, ballot tests against unnamed opponents represent a potential ideal that real candidates often can't live up to. Two years ago, for instance, MoveOn polled over 50 different House races and found all sorts of Republicans faring poorly against good ol' Generic Dem. Needless to say, things didn't work out so well in 2014. Next year ought to be different, but early polls in shapeless races should be viewed with caution.
Other Races:
• Toledo Mayor: If you didn't think the field was big enough for this fall's special election, I have great news for you. Mike Farmer, a liberal activist who lost the 1993 contest by just 672 votes, is circulating petitions to run again. Since his narrow defeat, Farmer has worked to oppose a planned six-story parking garage, but he was also convicted in 2006 for spray-painting anti-war messages on local overpasses. There's no primary or runoff here so even if Farmer only takes a small portion of the vote, he could still influence this contest.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, and Daniel Donner.
