This proposed map is not happening
In an epic descent into acrimony and recrimination, the Florida legislature concluded its special session on redistricting
without producing a new congressional map, as ordered by the state Supreme Court. Even though—or perhaps because—Republicans control both chambers, the state House and Senate absolutely loathe each other: Earlier this year, the state government nearly shut down after the House
refused to sign off on a Senate budget that would have expanded Medicaid. (Ultimately,
the House prevailed, tanking the expansion.)
With that history, it's not so surprising that Republicans could reach no agreement on revising Florida's congressional lines, which the court ruled were unconstitutional last month. But what makes this so amazing is that the differences between the two chambers' proposals were really minimal.
No one seemed to care that they were fighting over nothing, though, and the whole capitol descended into chaos: The Senate demanded the House pass its map; the House declined and called for a joint conference; angry senators proceeded to stalk out of that meeting; and then, finally, the House refused to extend the session past Friday's noon deadline, which the Senate had voted in favor of earlier in the morning, thus sending everyone home. Insanity.
It's particularly nuts because now the court will almost certainly have to draw a new map itself. That's all well and good for Democrats, but Republicans have been seething about what they (wrongly, comically) view as improper judicial interference in the redistricting process. Yet instead of retaining a measure of control over that process for themselves, they've decided to fully cede it back to seven judges who make up the state Supreme Court.
It's so crazy and so stupid that you have to wonder if there's something else at play here, and the answer is "probably." Matthew Isbell, one of the foremost experts on Florida cartography, points out that the legislature is due to reconvene for another special session in October, when it will redo the state Senate map (which faces similar constitutional infirmities). The House, says Isbell, is likely trying to assert its dominance ahead of that session, because the stakes will be much higher: Given Florida's term limits, members of the lower chamber will want to maximize their opportunities to advance to the upper chamber.
Those desires, though, will likely come into conflict with what senators want for themselves, and since any new map will have an immediate impact on them, they might be willing to demonstrate some more flexibility now that they know the House is willing to shoot the hostage. Or maybe not! Things are so poisonous in Tallahassee now that the Senate could very well strap some dynamite to its chest and light the fuse anyway.
Whatever happens, Democrats have to be quite pleased. Their congressional gains won't be huge—based on what the Supreme Court has said, we might be talking about a net change of one seat in the Democrats' favor—but it'll be better than the current state of affairs. And watching the GOP immolate itself in spectacular fashion for no good reason? Now that is a pearl beyond price.
