Another day, another round of breathless reporting over a seriously problematic presidential election poll.
Up now, a Quinnipiac poll that shows any number of things—Donald Trump takes 28 percent in the Republican primary, more than twice the 12 percent of runner-up Ben Carson; Hillary Clinton has 45 percent to Sen. Bernie Sanders' 22 percent and non-candidate Vice President Joe Biden's 18 percent—but there's one thing that's making the headlines. In way-the-hell-out hypothetical general election match-ups, Clinton and Biden both beat Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, and Marco Rubio (that's the Republican leader and two of the people tied for third), while Sanders beats Trump and Bush but loses to Rubio by one point. The headline: Biden's lead over the three Republicans is slightly larger than Clinton's lead.
If you read a report on this poll that is all about how Biden looks stronger than Clinton in the general election without noting that Biden is not a candidate and that this makes a significant difference in how he polls, adjust your view of that reporter downward. If the report focuses on Biden's favorables being better than Clinton's in this poll, adjust your view downward again. Why does it matter to how we understand this poll that Biden isn't a candidate (yet)? I'd refer you to something David Nir wrote Wednesday about reporting on Hillary Clinton's favorables having dropped through the course of the campaign so far:
When you leave a high-profile, nonpartisan post like secretary of state to run for elective office, you can't possibly sustain the broad appeal you once did when you were globe-trotting to meet with foreign leaders. As soon as you're back in the muck of the campaign trail, you're going to get viewed through the polarized prism of American politics. For Clinton, it was a predictable development that many did indeed predict.
Vice president is a more politicized role than secretary of State, but Biden benefits from this phenomenon, too. As long as he's not a candidate, he's the jovial sidekick we can all be fond of without thinking too hard about it, the guy who launched a thousand jokes in The Onion and then gained emotional gravity through (another) family tragedy. Once he's back in "the muck of the campaign trail," his favorables will decline, too.
After weeks of serious chatter about Biden possibly entering the presidential race, he's gained five points in the primary poll over his standing at the end of July. Bernie Sanders has similarly gained five points ... leaving Hillary Clinton with a 23 point lead.
Clinton then leads the three Republicans Quinnipiac elected to test for the general election ... but despite her leads, the headlines present the poll as bad news. It's conceivable Joe Biden would do better than Clinton in the general, but until he's entered the race and been recast in the popular imagination as another dirty politician, the polling is all but worthless.
Also, he'd have to do something about the minor complication of being third in the Democratic primary.
