Daily Kos Elections Senate race ratings: Initial ratings for 2015-16

Daily Kos Elections' initial Senate race ratings for the 2015-16 cycle

Daily Kos Elections' initial Senate race ratings for the 2015-16 cycle

Daily Kos Elections is pleased to announce our first set of Senate race ratings for the 2015-16 election cycle. Democrats are defending just 10 seats, while 24 Republican seats are up for re-election. Republicans currently control the chamber with 54 seats to the Democrats' 46, but the overall playing field favors the minority party. Democrats need to pick up five seats to regain control of the Senate, or four if the party retains the White House, since the vice president can break ties.

Our full chart rating the competitiveness of each contest is below (with Democratic seats in blue and Republican seats in red), along with a description of our ratings categories and an explanation of why we've rated each race the way we have.

Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Tossup	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R
CA (OPEN)		CO (Bennet)	FL (OPEN)	AZ (McCain)	IN (OPEN)	AK (Murkowski)
CT (Blumenthal)			IL (Kirk)	NH (Ayotte)	MO (Blunt)	AL (Shelby)
HI (Schatz)			NV (OPEN)	OH (Portman)	NC (Burr)	AR (Boozman)
MD (OPEN)			WI (Johnson)	PA (Toomey)		GA (Isakson)
NY (Schumer)						IA (Grassley)
OR (Wyden)						ID (Crapo)
VT (Leahy)						KS (Moran)
WA (Murray)						KY (Paul)
						LA (Vitter)
						ND (Hoeven)
						OK (Lankford)
						SC (Scott)
						SD (Thune)
						UT (Lee)

Here's how we define our ratings categories:

Tossup: Both (or all) parties have a strong, though not necessarily perfectly equal, chance of winning. Some Tossups may be shown with their backgrounds shaded blue or red, meaning they "tilt" toward the indicated party (i.e., that party has a slight advantage).

Lean: One party has an identifiable advantage, but an upset victory is possible for the other party.

Likely: One party has a strong advantage and is likely to win, though the race has the potential to become more competitive.

Safe: Barring unforeseeable developments, one party is certain to win.

Below the fold are brief explanations of our initial ratings, grouped by category of competitiveness and ranging from most competitive to least competitive. Note, however, that even within each category, not all races are equally competitive: One race in the Lean Republican grouping, for instance, might be on the border of being a Tossup, while another could be closer to Likely Republican.

Tossup:

• Florida — OPEN (R): With Marco Rubio's decision to run for vice-president, mega swing-state Florida's Senate seat is up for grabs. Establishment Democrats are badly hoping that Rep. Patrick Murphy will defeat fellow Rep. Alan Grayson for the party's nomination, since Grayson's big mouth, messy divorce, and ethical issues would be huge liabilities in the general election.

Republicans agree: The Club for Growth has already run ads designed to boost Grayson in the Democratic primary by his progressive bona fides, which he imagines far outstrip Murphy's. But the battle lines are far from clear (Murphy, for instance, came out in favor of the Iran nuclear deal while Grayson has consistently poor-mouthed it), and Murphy can definitely win the nod, though he'll have to do so without getting dragged too far to the left.

The GOP, meanwhile, has a very similar situation on their hands, though on paper, it looks more dire for them. Two notable establishment candidates are in the race, Rep. David Jolly (who's seeking higher office because he's about to become a redistricting victim) and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, while the movement conservative mantle can be claimed by just one guy, Rep. Ron DeSantis. If Jolly and CLC split the more moderate vote while DeSantis carries the nomination by hoovering up the tea partiers, Democrats would be delighted.

Given the stark differences between candidates in both fields, we'll likely have to re-evaluate after the primaries (which are not until August of next year). One positive for Democrats is that the last two times an open Senate seat has coincided with a presidential election in Florida—2004 and 2000—the party's Senate nominee has slightly run ahead of the top of the ticket. So Murphy, if he gets the nod, could win even if Team Blue narrowly loses the Sunshine State in the race for the White House.

• Illinois — Mark Kirk (R): Kirk got lucky in 2010, running in a wave year against a crummy opponent. This time, Kirk's looking like the crummy one, as he's repeatedly shredded his image as a reasonable Republican with remarks both ludicrous (Barack Obama wants "to get nukes to Iran") and offensive ("we drive faster through" black neighborhoods). Democrats, meanwhile, landed their preferred candidate in Rep. Tammy Duckworth, a veteran from the Chicago area who lost both legs in Iraq. Duckworth does have some primary opponents, but she should prevail without too much trouble, and she'll raise tons of money for the general election.

Illinois will go blue for president next year; the only question is by what margin. Kirk would need a ton of Democratic voters to split their tickets, and polls have Duckworth putting the hurt on Kirk. So why are we rating this race (and Wisconsin) as Tossups rather than slotting them in the "Lean Democrat" column? In a word, uncertainty. It's still incredibly early, and we only have a smattering of hard data to rely on.

By next year, there's a very good chance Duckworth's edge will harden. But in the meantime, there's too much unknown. Incumbents certainly have survived situations as tough or tougher than Kirk's, and Duckworth's never run statewide before. (Her biggest victory to date was defeating lunatic Joe Walsh in a solidly blue district.) We're choosing to play it cautiously here, but we can and always do revisit our ratings throughout the cycle. When the picture becomes clearer in Illinois, we'll change our outlook as warranted.

• Nevada — OPEN (D): Did Harry Reid's retirement leave the Democrats worse off, because he's a legendarily formidable campaigner and fundraiser? Or are they actually better off, since Nevadans have only soured on him further since his remarkable Houdini act in 2010? We'll never know, but we do know this: Both parties are treating this open seat with the utmost seriousness, and both parties have recruited their top candidates. For Republicans, that's GOP Rep. Joe Heck, who represents a swingy Las Vegas-area seat. For Democrats, that's former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, a Reid protégé.

So we'll see whether the Reid machine can successfully gear up for one final showdown. Republicans just barely held on to Dean Heller's Senate seat in 2012 thanks to a few Democrats who crossed over or voted for "None of these Candidates" (a unique option in Nevada) even as Obama carried the state, but Heller was an incumbent (albeit an appointed one), and his Democratic opponent had some ethical tarnish. Democrats should be able to keep this seat if their presidential standard-bearer carries the state, but Nevada can prove disappointingly soft, so this contest is a Tossup.

• Wisconsin — Ron Johnson (R): Johnson was one of the most conservative Republicans elected to the Senate in 2010, but he swiftly forgot that he represents a swingy state—and that he'd face re-election in a presidential year. He faces a rematch against the guy he ousted, former Sen. Russ Feingold, who seems to understand that he has to run a modern (i.e., well-funded) campaign this time. Johnson's poll numbers look terrible: Even in a Republican-funded poll, he trailed 50-42. He can self-fund quite a bit, but money can only buy so much.

Still, as with Illinois, things are in flux. An example: Marquette Law School, whose Wisconsin polling has been dead-on accurate, found Feingold with a 16-point lead in April. But by August, that had shrunk to just 5 points. It's not really plausible that the race could have "tightened" that much when virtually no voters are paying attention to it, so one result or the other is probably wrong. Which one, though? Or is it both? No one can say.

Again, we wouldn't be surprised to see Feingold find himself with a distinct advantage as the race progresses. But for now, we're calling this a Tossup.

Lean Democrat:

• Colorado — Michael Bennet (D): Bennet is the only vulnerable Democratic incumbent up in 2016, and he comes in to the race with some key advantages: He's an excellent fundraiser and he's well-connected among the party's power elite (he was DSCC chair last cycle). He also fended off an intense challenge as an appointed incumbent in 2010, miraculously winning the narrowest of victories. By all rights, next year's political environment should prove much more welcoming, which may be why Republicans have struggled to recruit a top-shelf opponent for Bennet.

But Colorado is still a swingy state, and the GOP may finally land a credible option in District Attorney George Brauchler, who prosecuted the infamous Aurora movie theater shooter and whose jurisdiction includes populous Arapahoe County in Denver's suburbs. Brauchler has the kind of law-and-order profile/no voting record that both parties often crave, but of course that means that movement conservatives will want one of their own. Two such candidates are considering: wealthy businessman Robert Blaha (who can self-fund) and state Sen. Tim Neville. Bennet would prefer either of them, but Democrats will settle for a nasty, contested Republican primary.

Whomever the GOP picks, Bennet's fortunes will likely rise and fall with his party's. If Democrats fail to carry Colorado at the presidential level, Bennet could still conceivably hang on, but it would probably mean a rough night for Team Blue nationwide.

Lean Republican:

• Arizona — John McCain (R): Democrats landed an unexpectedly strong recruit when Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, one of just five Democrats nationwide who holds a House seat won by Mitt Romney, decided to go after McCain. McCain himself, meanwhile, faces intra-party trouble of his own, from state Sen. Kelli Ward. Ward's a nutter and the tea party establishment (like the Club for Growth) has stiff-armed her, but polling shows the unpopular McCain vulnerable, both in the primary and the general.

Arizona is a damn tough state for Democrats to win, but Republicans only prevailed by 3 points in the open-seat race in 2012. Against a damaged McCain, Kirkpatrick would have a legit shot, especially if the Democrats' presidential nominee makes a play for the state. And against Ward, she'd probably have the edge.

• New Hampshire — Kelly Ayotte (R): Democrats want Gov. Maggie Hassan to run against Ayotte, which is why the Republican-held legislature engaged in a protracted budget fight with the governor, to try to hold her in place as long as possible and bring down her approval ratings in the process. That battle finally just ended, freeing Hassan to make a bid for Senate. If she does get in, Hassan would instantly make this race a Tossup; with anyone else, Ayotte would be favored but not overwhelmingly so. New Hampshire, more than almost any other state, can veer dramatically based on the prevailing political winds.

• Ohio — Rob Portman (R): Portman's done a good job cultivating an image as a "moderate" (he was the first sitting Republican senator to come out in favor of same-sex marriage), and he's also a monster fundraiser. But Democrats landed their best possible recruit in ex-Gov. Ted Strickland, who has a keen populist appeal. Strickland, however, faces an irksome primary from Cincinnati City Councilor P.G. Sittenfeld, who just won't go away

Strickland has also run behind his own campaign's fundraising benchmarks, something he can't keep on doing if he wants to avoid getting drowned out on the airwaves. Portman is a tough foe, but he's not impossible to beat. The early polling has actually been quite rosy for Strickland, but perhaps too rosy.

Portman could also get scooped up as the GOP's vice-presidential nominee, which would scramble the race. For that reason, though, he's probably not likely to get tapped.

• Pennsylvania — Pat Toomey (R): Toomey is a former head of the Club for Growth who has done a masterful job cloaking his extremism—you may recall his unsuccessful 2013 push for background checks for gun buyers. The question for Democrats is whether they can pull off that mask, or hell, just get people to vote a straight ticket. It won't be easy, though. The party finds itself in an unhappy place: Ex-Rep. Joe Sestak is back for a repeat engagement, but the establishment despises him, fairly or not. So instead, they're backing former state environmental secretary Katie McGinty ... who took all of 8 percent in last year's gubernatorial primary.

Sestak came awfully close to beating Toomey in 2010 in spite of the Republican wave, but his fundraising's been a lot weaker this time, and if he wins the nomination without making amends, he could find himself very lonely out there. McGinty, meanwhile, is pretty untested, so who knows whether she has the chops to stop Toomey—or even Sestak. Either way, this rancorous primary isn't doing Team Blue any favors. Still, Pennsylvania's blue lean keeps this seat on the table.

Likely Republican:

• Indiana — OPEN (R): Democrats got absurdly lucky in 2012, when Republican Richard Mourdock knocked off Sen. Dick Lugar in the GOP primary, then declared pregnancy that results from rape a "gift from God" just before Election Day. They'd need some similar magic to have a shot once more in 2016 with Dan Coats calling it quits, and it probably starts with tea partying Rep. Marlin Stutzman winning the Republican nomination.

But Stutzman faces some difficult opponents, foremost among them fellow Rep. Todd Young, a tough establishment contender. And even if Stutzman did grab the nod, the likely Democratic nominee, ex-Rep. Baron Hill, would really have to kick his pitiful fundraising up several notches—plus he'd need Stutzman to set fire to himself. We won't strictly rule out the possibility of an upset just yet, but this race is on the fringes.

• Missouri — Roy Blunt (R): Blunt's a savvy campaigner, and he's probably fine for re-election. But he did land a credible opponent in Secretary of State Jason Kander, who's put up some good early fundraising numbers. If, say, Hillary Clinton were to contest Missouri (as Barack Obama did in 2008), Kander could find himself the beneficiary. But this is a longshot.

• North Carolina — Richard Burr (R): North Carolina is for Democrats what Colorado's been for Republicans: a competitive state where Senate recruitment has nevertheless not come easily. So far, Democrats have come up dry, but a few names are finally considering. No matter what, though, it won't be anyone notable, so the party will have to hope for a repeat of something like 2008 to have a chance. That year, a strong Democratic wave boosted the little-known Kay Hagan past GOP Sen. Liddy Dole. The same thing could conceivably happen again, but it would be outside of anyone's control.

Safe Democratic:

• California — OPEN (D): It would be quite a shock if Democrats can't hold Barbara Boxer's seat. It's theoretically possible to imagine some disaster in the top-two primary, but that would require several Democrats to split the vote. Right now, only two are running: state Attorney General Kamala Harris and Rep. Loretta Sanchez. Harris is the consensus pick and heavy favorite to win it all. If you want to know which Republicans are running, you're going to have to look that up yourself.

• Connecticut — Richard Blumenthal (D): Blumenthal's job approval ratings have consistently been in the 60s for years according to Quinnipiac, and he should have no trouble winning election to a second term. Conservative pundit Larry Kudlow has threatened to run here, but he makes a lot of threats.

• Hawaii — Brian Schatz (D): After his ultra-close shave in the Democratic primary in last year's special election following his appointment to fill the seat of the late Dan Inouye, Schatz's biggest threat in his quest for a full six-year term would have been a repeat engagement with ex-Rep. Colleen Hanabusa. But neither Hanabusa nor any other intra-party challengers have taken any steps toward a run, and no Republican can win here.

• Maryland — OPEN (D): Maryland hasn't sent a member of the GOP to the Senate since liberal Republican Charles Mathias won a final term in 1980. While Barbara Mikulski, the woman who succeeded Mathias, is leaving her seat open, the interesting contest here is the Democratic primary, which pits two representatives against each other: Chris Van Hollen and Donna Edwards. Either would be hard to beat in 2016.

• New York — Chuck Schumer (D): Schumer upset plenty of progressives with his parochial opposition to the Iran nuclear deal, but he's not vulnerable, either in a primary or a general election.

• Oregon — Ron Wyden (D): Some progressives have talked a big game about challenging Wyden in the primary over his free-trade views, but no serious challengers has materialized, nor is one likely to. Republicans have no bench worth speaking of here.

• Vermont — Pat Leahy (D): Once upon a time, Vermont was the most reliably Republican state in the nation: From 1856 to 1988, the state went Democratic for president just once, in 1964. Things have since changed quite a bit. Leahy is a lock.

• Washington — Patty Murray (D): Republicans tried hard to knock off Murray in 2010, but even the wave year and top-tier recruit weren't enough. Those favorable circumstances won't repeat themselves for the GOP next year.

Safe Republican:

• Alaska — Lisa Murkowski (R): Alaska's 2010 Senate race was one of the most fascinating and unlikely elections of all time, as Murkowski lost the GOP primary to tea partier Joe Miller, then won re-election in November as a write-in candidate. This cycle, though, things aren't looking nearly so interesting. Miller hasn't ruled out a rematch, but his reputation has taken a sharp hit in the intervening years. The one Democrat who could give Murkowski a real fight in the general election, ex-Sen. Mark Begich, hasn't formally said "no," either, but he'd have a difficult path. If either man decides to run, we'll re-evaluate our rating.

• Alabama — Richard Shelby (R): It's Alabama, and Shelby has literally $18.8 million in the bank. Next.

• Arkansas — John Boozman (R): Democrats have landed a credible challenger in former U.S. Attorney Conner Eldridge, who recently resigned his post. But Team Blue's fortunes in Arkansas have nosedived so sharply that it's hard to imagine Eldridge unseating the incumbent even if everything were to go right.

Last year, amidst the Republican wave, Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor got absolutely destroyed, taking just 39 percent. For a scandal-free incumbent, that kind of result is just brutal. Sure, 2016 won't be 2014, and Eldridge has that coveted prosecutor's profile, meaning he doesn't have the baggage of a voting record. But he was appointed to his job by the president, and the fact that he has a "D" after his name is more than enough for Republicans to tie the dreaded Obama anvil around his neck.

Boozman, meanwhile, hasn't screwed anything up, which is generally enough to ensure re-election for a Republican in a red state (or a Democrat in a blue one). Undoubtedly Eldridge has conducted polls that show him with a path to victory, but then again, so did Bob Kerrey. It would be easy to slot this in at Likely Republican, but Eldridge has to show us something before we'll believe he has even an outside shot.

• Georgia — Johnny Isakson (R): Last cycle, Democrats made a heroic effort to capture an open Senate seat in Georgia but came up woefully short. Georgia's trending the right way, and presidential-year turnout will assuredly be better, but beating an incumbent would be incredibly hard—particularly since Democrats haven't even landed a candidate yet. Isakson, age 70, recently revealed that he was diagnosed with Parkinson's in 2013 but says he will seek re-election. If he were to change his mind, then we'd revisit.

• Idaho — Mike Crapo (R): Idaho.

• Iowa — Chuck Grassley (R): Some day—and that day may never come—Grassley will retire and Democrats will make a serious play for his Senate seat. Until then, assume deer living.

• Kansas — Jerry Moran (R): Tea partier Milton Wolf, who came closer than expected to beating Sen. Pat Roberts in last year's GOP primary, has threatened to pursue Moran, whom he blames for his loss. But Moran doesn't share Roberts' defects (chiefly, an aversion to actually spending time in Kansas) and should be just fine. Democrats made a play in Kansas last year by backing independent Greg Orman and not fielding a candidate of their own but still came up more than 10 points shy. Those special circumstances won't obtain again.

• Kentucky — Rand Paul (R): Every day Paul spends on the presidential campaign trail almost assuredly endears him less and less to voters back home, particularly since he's masterminded some wacky shenanigans to ensure that he can run for both president and Senate simultaneously (something ordinarily forbidden by Kentucky law). Still, it would take a hell of a lot for Paul to poison the well so badly that he could lose to a Democrat. We'd bet that he'll run behind the top of the ticket, but not enough to put this seat in play.

• Louisiana — David Vitter (R): Here's a race that's in a state of quantum superposition: If Vitter wins the governorship this fall, he'd get to appoint a replacement, and we don't know if he'd pick a caretaker, or if he'd choose someone interested in running for a full term. If he loses his gubernatorial bid, that raises a different question: Would he then seek re-election? It's all academic, though. Democrats were humiliated in last year's Senate race and are badly on the outs in Louisiana. So whether it's Vitter, a placeholder, an appointed incumbent, or someone else entirely, this seat should easily stay in GOP hands.

• North Dakota — John Hoeven (R): Democrats won a miraculous open-seat Senate race in 2012 thanks to the singular Heidi Heitkamp. Against Hoeven, even Heitkamp wouldn't have a shot.

• Oklahoma — James Lankford (R): Lankford won a special election in 2014 for the final two years of Tom Coburn's term, beating former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon in the GOP primary and crushing in the general election. No one has talked about testing Lankford in the primary next year.

• South Carolina — Tim Scott (R): Scott was appointed to fill a vacancy in 2012, but no fellow Republicans of any note bothered to challenge him in the primary last year. That may have had to do with the fact that Scott's much more vulnerable senior colleague, Sen. Lindsey Graham, was also on the ballot, but even Graham survived his primary without much difficulty. Scott should be home free.

• South Dakota — John Thune (R): Democrats didn't even field a candidate in the general election here in 2010. If that happens again—and it very well might—Thune would be the first sitting Republican senator in 75 years to face no major-party opponent in back-to-back cycles. And to think: This was once Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle's seat.

• Utah — Mike Lee (R): Establishment Republicans have been talking about trying to unseat Lee, one of the most rabid dystopian wreckers in Congress, for some time. They haven't managed to come up with a candidate yet. Ex-Rep. Jim Matheson is the only Democrat who could make this contest interesting, but he's now a lobbyist.