Republican Rep. Martha McSally (AZ-02), a top Democratic target in 2016
The NRCC just leaked a batch of five new polls, all conducted by Harper Polling, covering a variety of House races across the country. Unsurprisingly, the results are positive for Republicans:
• AZ-02: Martha McSally (R-inc): 47, state Rep. Victoria Steele (D): 40
McSally: 48, ex-state Rep. Matt Heinz: 40
• IL-12: Mike Bost (R-inc): 51, attorney C.J. Baricevic (D): 35
• MI-07: Tim Walberg (R-inc): 49, state Rep. Gretchen Driskell (D): 32
• NY-21: Elise Stefanik (R-inc): 51, retired Army Col. Mike Derrick (D): 17, activist Matt Funiciello (G): 13
• NY-24: John Katko (R-inc): 51, college professor Eric Kingson (D): 28
Early House polls are weak predictors of future results, largely because they're testing candidates who are little-known—including the incumbents. But it's fair to say that Democrats have not put much stock in their candidates in either
IL-12 or
NY-24 and are still looking to recruit stronger alternatives, so you wouldn't expect to see much if you're polling in either district.
In NY-21, Funiciello actually managed to take 11 percent last year, which makes his current take plausible. If Derrick can't find a way to neutralize Funiciello's appeal, Democrats will have a very hard time unseating Stefanik. MI-07 is the one seat where this isn't the first poll we've seen: Revsix showed Driskell beating Walberg 42-37 back in March, though those numbers were probably too optimistic for Driskell.
The softest results of the bunch come in AZ-02, particularly when you bear in mind that these are internal polls, which invariably favor the party releasing them. McSally won the closest House race in the nation last year, so there's every reason to expect another dogfight. Even more importantly, all of these races are apt to be heavily influenced by what happens at the top of the ticket. If these incumbents are actually in the mid-to-high 40s, rather than the high 40s to low 50s, they could all be vulnerable in 2016.
