Democratic Rep. and prospective Senate candidate Tammy Duckworth
:
• IL-Sen: Until now Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth has been pretty mum about a potential campaign against Republican Sen. Mark Kirk, though her campaign team has been keeping her name in contention. However, on Monday she confirmed that she is indeed considering taking on the senator and will look more closely at it now that her daughter is two months old. Fellow Reps. Bill Foster and Cheri Bustos are also reportedly mulling a bid, though it sounds like Duckworth is the preferred candidate of national Democrats.
And we'd be remiss if we didn't include Kirk's thoughts on facing Duckworth from his The Hill interview in November:
"She has a very bright future ahead of her. After only one term … you know, when you run for the Senate, you have to give up your congressional seat. If she gives up her congressional seat and loses against me, that's a very sad ending to a bright career," Kirk said about the congresswoman and potential rival.
"To fight and lose a Senate race against Kirk is a terrible start to a career," the Illinois Republican said in a sit-down interview in his Senate office.
I'm sure she'll consider Mark Kirk's sage words of advice in the weeks ahead.
Senate:
• CA-Sen: The Los Angeles Times put out an article about the possible Antonio Villaraigosa run for Barbara Boxer's open Senate seat; it talks about the uphill battle the former Los Angeles Democratic mayor faces if he runs, which is probably true, but it couches that in a supposed disadvantage that southern Californians have running for statewide office. One piece of evidence for that is that, indeed, most of the current statewide elected officials in California are from the north; it also discusses that turnout is lower in the south because the south is more heavily Latino, and the super-expensive L.A. media market means less thorough advertising.
Beyond that, though, the article just doesn't make much sense. It cites much lower turnout in Los Angeles County than in San Francisco and Alameda Counties; it also cites how many fewer votes there were in, say, Xavier Becerra's congressional district than in Nancy Pelosi's. Unfortunately, there's much more to SoCal and NorCal than just those three counties, and it doesn't matter that the L.A.-area CDs have lower turnout when there are so many more of them than Bay Area CDs.
If you draw the line between north and south at the straight line across the state with San Luis Obispo, Kern, and San Bernardino Counties falling south of the line, you would have 7,622,043 votes cast in southern California and 5,433,772 votes in northern California in the 2012 presidential election; turnout percentages don't matter when you're starting from such a large baseline population disparity. Ah, you might be saying, but we're talking about Democrats in the primary, though, not a general election, and most of the Republicans are in the south, so the northern Democrats have the advantage in the Dem primary, right? No: In 2012, there were 4,431,419 votes for Barack Obama in the southern counties, and 3,427,866 votes for Obama in the northern counties. There are still more Democrats in the south, too. So SoCal Dems' futile track record is about something other than just population numbers.
• IN-Sen: Republican Sen. Dan Coats has been pretty silent about his re-election plans. However, he recently told Howey Politics' Brian Howey that he'll make a decision this spring. It sounds like he's leaning strongly toward running now that he's back in the majority, but we'll know soon enough. Indiana is rarely polled so we don't have any recent information on how popular Coats is, but there's no reason to think that he's vulnerable to a Democratic challenger in this red state. The low-key Coats could always face a primary challenger, but no one serious has put their name out there yet. (H/t SouthernINDem)
• PA-Sen: Here's a name we haven't heard in quite some time: Ex-Rep. Chris Carney, who represented Pennsylvania's old 10th District for a couple of terms late last decade, says he's considering a bid against Republican Sen. Pat Toomey next year. Carney's emergence is a surprise, but the state's Democratic establishment has been looking for an alternative to ex-Rep. Joe Sestak, who's been gearing up to run for two years now, so perhaps some of the powers-that-be have reached out to him.
However, even though Carney and Sestak were both first elected to Congress back in 2006 as "Fighting Dems," Carney would start off at a major disadvantage. For one thing, Sestak already has $1.3 million in the bank and is a fundraising machine. For another, Sestak previously build up something of a profile with his prior run for Senate in 2010; Carney, meanwhile, has been out of politics. What's more, Carney represented a very conservative, historically Republican district and compiled a record to match, including an A-rating from the NRA and wobbly marks from pro-choice groups.
Maybe that might fly in a general election in the Keystone State (Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, for instance, isn't that different, ideologically), but first Carney would have to get past Sestak for the nomination. And Sestak already has some tough-as-nails experience when it comes to up-ending more-conservative Democrats when going before primary voters. The late Arlen Specter certainly found this out the hard way, and Carney wouldn't have nearly the institutional support that Specter did. Establishment Democrats may not like Sestak, but they'd be foolish not to respect his abilities.
Gubernatorial:
• KY-Gov, AG, SoS: It looks like the future is still Grimes. Secretary of State and 2014 Democratic Senate nominee Alison Grimes confirmed on Monday that she'll seek statewide office this year, but she doesn't know which post she'll run for. Grimes says she's been encouraged to run for governor, attorney general, and for re-election.
If she ran for the top job it would put her on a collision course with primary frontrunner and Attorney General Jack Conway; state House Speaker Greg Stumbo is another Democrat flirting with a gubernatorial bid. If she sought Conway's open seat she'd need to get past Andy Beshear, the son of Gov. Steve Beshear. So far no credible Democrats have talked about running for secretary of state, and Grimes would probably have the easiest time holding her current job. The filing deadline is Jan. 27 so we'll know what she'll do soon enough.
We also have our first poll of the general election in recent memory. Unfortunately it's from Gravis, but beggars can't be choosers.
Conway (and only Conway) was tested against several prospective Republican foes. Against state Agriculture Commissioner James Comer, Conway leads 40-37. When pitted against former Louisville Councilor Hal Heiner (who like Comer is in the race), former ambassador to Latvia Cathy Bailey, and 2014 Senate candidate Matt Bevin (who are both still considering) Conway leads by double digits. However, Conway only takes 43-44 percent against all of them, and Comer's smaller deficit is probably just a sign that he's better known than the rest of the other would-be Republican nominees. Former state Supreme Court Justice Will Scott is also running, but he was not tested.
Gravis also tested several down ballot races. The most interesting is the secretary of state contest, where Grimes leads former Erlanger Councilor Steve Knipper only 47-46. There are a lot fewer undecideds than in any of the other races, including governor! That said Grimes is undoubtedly still very well known from her recent Senate campaign so it's not too shocking that most voters have an option of her.
• MS-Gov, AG: Magnolia State Democrats haven't had much luck recruiting someone to take on Gov. Phil Bryant, who looks safe for a second term. Surprisingly though, Attorney General Jim Hood actually seems to be considering a bid. Hood, the last statewide Democrat in the Deep South, said on Thursday that he's still not decided on whether or not he'll seek a fourth term, retire, or run for governor. When asked about the latter option Hood declared, "I don't know. I'm just going to have to wait and pray about it. I've got about another week or so before I have to do something." Hood plans to make his decision this week or soon after.
Hood has managed to thrive even as the Magnolia State has become increasingly hostile to his party. In 2011 he won re-election 61-39 and he probably would be favored to keep his seat if he goes for another term. A gubernatorial bid against a relatively non-controversial incumbent would be very tough though. If Hood wants to run for governor his odds would almost certainly be better when this seat is next open in 2019. Hood is currently in a high-profile legal dispute with Google, with the company suing him after he issued a subpoena against them; maybe after standing up to the rulers of the internet and emerging alive, the Mississippi Republican Party doesn't seem so bad.
House:
• CA-13: Barack Obama's move towards normalizing relations with Cuba is about far more than just rum, cigars, and tourism: The U.S. intends to re-open its embassy in Cuba, and that will eventually mean appointing an ambassador. And according to SFGate, Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee, who has visited Cuba many times and has long pushed for restoring ties between the two countries, is interested in the job.
Lee herself offered a politician's non-response when directly asked about the matter, but it's always wise not to appear pushy in public when angling for a plum government assignment. Suffice it to say she's probably keen on the post, and if she got it, her indigo blue district in San Francisco's East Bay would come open for the first time since Rep. Ron Dellums resigned and set off a special election in 1998. (Lee, then a state senator, won the special handily and never faced serious opposition since.)
That means there's likely a lot of pent-up interest among local pols who'd like to succeed Lee if she departs for warmer climes, and SFGate already suggests Assemblyman Rob Bonta and former Assemblywoman Nancy Skinner as possibilities. The 13th includes the ultra-liberal bastions of Berkeley and Oakland and gave Obama a wildly lopsided 88 percent of the vote in 2012, so anyone interested in taking Lee's place will definitely be a Democrat, like Bonta and Skinner.
For now, though, everything is very speculative, and it may be a while yet before the president is even ready to name an ambassador. (In fact, the responsibility could even fall to his successor.) But, as always, we'll be keeping an eye on this one.
• NY-11: Last week's Quinnipiac poll of New York City had some heartening news for Mayor Bill de Blasio in his standoff with the police unions. But the crosstabs showed remarkably different results in Staten Island, which is important because that'll be the site of a House special election soon, to replace disgraced Republican Michael Grimm. David Jarman digs into the demographic "why" behind the disparity, finding that it may have to do with the vast numbers of police officers living there.
Other Races:
• Indianapolis Mayor: It looks like the Republicans will have a credible candidate after all as they seek to hold this seat in November. Though initial reports said that Deputy Mayor Olgen Williams wouldn't run, on Monday he announced that he is in fact joining the race.
Williams was known as a prominent African American leader before he joined outgoing Mayor Greg Ballard's administration, and he is reportedly close to the incumbent. However, he doesn't have as many fans in the GOP establishment. The county GOP has not named their preferred candidate, and Williams' son says that they have someone else in mind. IndyStar tells us that an unnamed GOP candidate is expected to kick off a campaign this week, and we'll keep our eyes peeled. The filing deadline is Feb. 6 so things will sort themselves out soon.
Former U.S. Attorney Joe Hogsett very quickly emerged as the Democratic favorite, and he's dodged another primary foe. The Rev. Charles Harrison had talked about running as either a Democrat or an independent, and on Monday he announced he would defer to his friend Williams. Harrison did say that he may still run as an independent or Libertarian if Williams didn't get the Republican nomination in the May primary though.
• Las Vegas Mayor: Mayor Carolyn Goodman has looked like the easy favorite for re-election later this year, but she'll face a credible challenge after all. Mayor Pro Tem Stavros Anthony publicly says he's thinking about it, but privately it looks like he's already off to the races. Anthony plans to make construction of a new soccer stadium a major issue against Goodman. Jon Ralston says that Goodman remains the heavy favorite in the April 7 election, "But in a low-turnout election, with anti-stadium Anthony vs. pro-stadium-Goodman, this could be fun."
Grab Bag:
• "Rising Stars": The National Journal has a fun piece about members of Congress who are constantly talked about for higher office but never pull the trigger. Topping the list are two Democrats: Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, who says he might run against Sen. Rob Portman, and California Rep. Loretta Sanchez, who is looking at a bid to succeed Sen. Barbara Boxer. But Ryan and Sanchez have considered Senate and gubernatorial runs in the past and have for years elected to stay put in the House. Seven other current and former members also make the cut, but is there anyone missing whom you'd add?
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.
