Louisiana Democrat John Bel Edwards has a real chance to paint the governor's mansion blue
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• LA-Gov: It wasn't long ago that David Vitter was the undisputed frontrunner to become Louisiana's next governor, sure to dominate his rivals—Republican and Democrat alike—in both the primary and the runoff. But the bayou is often full of political surprises, and things sure haven't worked out the way Vitter planned and everyone else expected.
Vitter, of course, is infamous for appearing in the little black book of the notorious "D.C. Madam," Deborah Jean Palfrey, who operated a call girl ring in the nation's capital back in the aughts. When busted in 2007, Vitter apologized for his "sin" but did not resign, because doing so would have allowed Louisiana's Democratic governor at the time, Kathleen Blanco, to appoint a successor. Vitter also knew he had three years until his first re-election campaign, which should have been more than enough time for voters to either forget or forgive.
And indeed, it looked as though they had. Vitter won a dominant 57-38 victory over Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon in 2010, and while he was surely aided by that year's GOP wave, he also eviscerated a former state supreme court justice who challenged him in the primary by an 88-7 margin. Seemingly secure in office, Vitter emerged as the top force in Republican politics in Louisiana, thanks to Gov. Bobby Jindal's deep unpopularity and Vitter's own efforts to help elect a phalanx of state legislators loyal to him.
That put Vitter in top position to succeed the term-limited Jindal this year, and polls throughout the campaign showed him far ahead of his two Republican rivals, Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle. State Rep. John Bel Edwards, as the only prominent Democrat running, was always likely to earn a spot in the runoff, but there was every reason to expect Vitter would make short work of him in this deeply conservative state.
But it turned out that Vitter's prostitution scandal was not safely in the past—not at all. Head below the fold to find out what went wrong for him, and why Democrats may be able to capitalize next month.
Vitter's opponents (often via super PACs) resurrected the issue in countless TV ads, and they drew blood. Vitter's favorability ratings plummeted, but neither Angelle nor Dardenne could capitalize because they split the anti-Vitter vote almost down the middle. On primary day a week ago, Edwards secured a solid 40 percent of the vote while Vitter limped into the second spot with just 23 percent. Angelle finished not far behind at 19; had either he or Dardenne, who took 15, not run, Vitter probably would not have made the runoff.
Yet he did, much to the delight of Democrats and to the disgust of Republicans. Both Angelle and Dardenne have declined to endorse Vitter, and Edwards, who long had seemed like an afterthought, might now be poised for an upset. Some polling prior to the primary had showed Edwards beating Vitter, but now we have our first confirmatory post-primary poll. In a survey from Anzalone Liszt Grove on behalf of the deliciously named Gumbo PAC, a group supported by the DGA, Edwards sports a strong 52-40 lead on Vitter.
What makes these numbers all the more remarkable is that the RGA began attacking Edwards on the airwaves—predictably trying to tie him to Barack Obama—even before the primary. Yet according to ALG, Edwards still has a positive 55-26 favorability score while Vitter is underwater at 40-52. And in a truly troubling sign for Vitter, half of Angelle and Dardenne voters are flocking to the Democrat.
Whenever you see a poll like this, though, you have to step back and ask whether it's too good to be true. The answer, as ever, is that it might be. Anzalone produced one of the most unfortunate polls in recent Louisiana electoral history, when they claimed that Vitter had a mere 3-point lead with just weeks to go in his 2010 re-election. (As we noted above, Vitter prevailed by 19.) And Republican attack ads aimed at Edwards have yet to reach the fever pitch we know they will. It won't be easy to survive that onslaught.
But it does seem that Louisiana voters are still much more willing to consider pulling the lever for a Democrat (especially a fairly conservative one like Edwards) in a gubernatorial election rather than in a federal race, when they know they'd only be sending in reinforcements for Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer. As a result, we're moving our rating on this race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. That's a cautious move, especially since Edwards is leading in the polls and Vitter hasn't produced any contrary data, but Democrats still have a challenging path to victory.
However, if further polling still shows Edwards ahead as we get closer to the Nov. 21 runoff, then it might be necessary for us to consider labeling this contest a tossup. That would be a remarkable place to find ourselves, but again, this is Louisiana—the land where the unexpected is always possible.
Senate:
• CA-Sen: Loretta Sanchez recently unveiled endorsements from two of her House colleagues, Anna Eshoo and Sam Farr. Both Eshoo and Farr represent Northern California seats where the Orange County-based Sanchez isn't well known.
• FL-Sen: None of the GOP's Senate candidates have been raising the type of money you'd expect them to raise in a massive state like this, but it may not be entirely their fault. Roll Call's Emily Cahn reports that the presidential contest between Floridians Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio has distracted the Sunshine State's major GOP donors, and they aren't focusing on the Senate primary right now. It also doesn't help that the state's CFO Jeff Atwater is once again considering running, and plenty of donors are waiting to see what he does.
The fundraising winter has harmed establishment favorites Rep. David Jolly and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera the most; tea partying Rep. Ron DeSantis decisively outraised both of them, and businessman Todd Wilcox seems prepared to self-fund instead. If DeSantis can get enough of a head start with his fundraising, that could give him an edge in the primary.
• IL-Sen: In an interview with Craine's, state Sen. Napoleon Harris confirmed that he'll seek the Democratic nod to challenge GOP Sen. Mark Kirk. Harris, a former NFL linebacker, will not have an easy path to victory in the primary. Rep. Tammy Duckworth has been running here for months and raising money and consolidating support, and ex-Chicago Urban League President Andrea Zopp also has a few powerful allies.
Harris' last run for federal office didn't go so well either. Harris briefly ran in a 2013 special for the 2nd District, but dropped out before too long. Yes, there was that other African American state senator from Chicago who went from losing a House primary to winning a Senate seat, but Barack Obama didn't spent months watching as his opponents built up their campaigns before finally deciding to join in.
Harris could still have an effect on the primary. Zopp already faced an uphill climb against Duckworth, and Harris could take some votes she needs from Chicago. Harris is already throwing some punches at Zopp, arguing that unlike her, he has a base. However, Harris actually praised Duckworth as a candidate who could beat Kirk, which isn't normally the kind of thing you say about someone you want to beat.
• NC-Sen: PPP is out with another monthly poll of the Tar Heel State. This time, they find ex-state House Whip Deborah Ross trailing Republican Sen. Richard Burr just 43-39, a big improvement from her 45-34 deficit in September. Ross announced her candidacy during the intervening time, and maybe the publicity gave her a bump.
Still, Ross' favorable ratings have barely moved: She went from a 9-14 statewide score to 12-15. In all likelihood, Ross is just getting a short-term boost or if this poll is simply off. In fact, Chris Rey, another little-known Democratic contender, only saw his deficit against Burr narrow from 46-34 in September to 43-34 now. PPP also tested businessman Kevin Griffin for the first time and found him losing 44-35. Unsurprisingly, 79 percent of respondents have no opinion about Griffin, and there's no reason to think he has the money or connections he'd need to get his name out.
PPP also gives us our first look at the Democratic primary, where Ross leads Griffin 33-16, with Rey at 6.
Gubernatorial:
• KY-Gov: Republican Matt Bevin is out with one more ad, and he starts out decrying Democrat Jack Conway's negative commercials before going negative himself. The rest of the spot is the boring biographical stuff that usually goes into campaign ads at the beginning of the race, not at the very end.
• NC-Gov: PPP finds that the duel between Republican Gov. Pat McCrory and Democrat Roy Cooper is as close as ever. This time, Cooper leads 44-43, a switch from McCrory's 44-41 edge last month.
• VT-Gov: Former state Sen. Peter Galbraith, a Democrat and well-known diplomat, hasn't ruled out a bid for this open seat, and he now tells VTDigger he's "leaning strongly toward doing it." Galbraith may not have an easy time in the primary though. He had a difficult time getting along with his colleagues in the legislature, and he doesn't appear to have many powerful friends in Green Mountain State politics.
Galbraith also doesn't sound ready to run a serious campaign, saying if he gets in, he wouldn't start campaigning until 2016. Shap Smith, Sue Minter, and Matt Dunne are already raising money and winning endorsements, and despite what he may think, Galbraith can't just wait a few months before joining them.
House:
• FL-05: Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham says she won't announce her 2016 plans until she sees the final map of Florida's new congressional districts, but it looks like she won't be challenging fellow Rep. Corrine Brown in the primary for the 5th District. On Thursday, Graham was one of only a handful of House Democrats to vote for someone other than Nancy Pelosi in the speakership contest, and she was the only member to back Tennessee's Jim Cooper.
Graham also voted for Cooper in January and she pledged during her 2014 race not to vote for Pelosi, and Graham could have decided that she'd look worse by changing course. Still, Graham hasn't done much to move to the left in preparation for a primary against Brown, and it doesn't seem like she wants to challenge her. Graham could try her luck in the redrawn 2nd District, but that seat will likely be too red for any Democrat to win; Graham could also run for the Senate this year, but her vote against Pelosi could also hold her back in a statewide primary. Graham might also just retire and wait until 2018 to run for another office.
• FL-13: On Thursday, Charlie Crist won an endorsement from Rep. Kathy Castor. Castor currently represents several dark blue St. Petersburg neighborhoods that redistricting shifted over to the 13th District (Crist himself is currently one of her constituents), so she may have some pull with Democratic primary voters.
• MD-08: EMILY's List has thrown their backing behind Kathleen Matthews, a former local news anchor who recently left her job as a Marriott executive to run here. One other woman, Del. Ana Sol Gutierrez, is running in the Democratic primary, but Gutierrez's poor early fundraising likely played a part in dissuading EMILY from supporting her. By contrast, Matthews raised a humongous $564,000 from donors in the third fundraising quarter, well ahead of state Sen. Jamie Raskin's $375,000 haul during this time. Say what you will about EMILY's List, but they're true to their acronym: Early Money Is Like Yeast (it raises the dough).
• MI-07: Democrats scored a good recruit against Republican Rep. Tim Walberg in this 51-48 Romney seat, and state Rep. Gretchen Driskell continues to fundraise well. Driskell brought in $203,000 for the quarter while Walberg only hauled $133,000, not at all a good sum for a vulnerable incumbent. Walberg has $922,000 on hand, but Driskell's $435,000 is pretty good for this early in the race.
• MI-08: Democrats want to target freshman Mike Bishop before he can become entrenched in this 51-48 Romney seat, and Democratic candidate Melissa Gilbert is off to a good fundraising start. Gilbert, a former Screen Actors Guild president and actress on "Little House on the Prairie," raised $200,000 during the quarter, a little behind Bishop's $214,000 haul. Bishop leads Gilbert in cash on hand $397,000 to $183,000, which isn't an overwhelming edge.
• NV-03: Republican Danny Tarkanian may be a perennial candidate, but he's a well-connected one. Tarkanian raised $349,000 during the third quarter of the year. However, GOP establishment favorite Michael Roberson outdid him by raising $444,000 during this period; Roberson also leads Tarkanian $420,000 to $334,000 in cash on hand. A third primary candidate, conservative think tank head Andy Matthews, raised $136,000.
National Democrats are still looking for a candidate for this swingy suburban Las Vegas seat. Little-known attorney Jesse Sbaih is already running and while he only raised $98,000, he loaned his campaign another $200,000. It's unclear how much more personal money Sbaih is able or willing to pitch in, but there's no indication that the DCCC is ready to settle on him as their standard bearer.
• PA-09: Unlike some of his colleagues, GOP Rep. Bill Shuster appears to be taking his primary seriously. Shuster, the powerful transportation committee chair, raised $461,000 for the quarter. Shuster only won 54 percent in his 2014 after tea partiers argued that he was wasting taxpayer money by securing essential highway funding for his rural seat, and he got some bad headlines earlier this year after he fast-tracked a bill being pushed by an airline lobbyist he was dating.
However, Shuster has attracted only a weak primary challenge from businessman Art Halvorson, who took 35 percent in 2014. Halvorson raised very little money for his last effort, bizarrely saying at the time that, "We are out door-to-door and we are touching people and voters, and we are buying love with touches and Mr. Shuster's big money doesn't buy love." Halvorson's touching strategy didn't pay off last time, but it appears he's giving it another shot: Halvorson announced he was running a month ago, but he has yet to file with the FEC. At least we can accurately say that Shuster's cash on hand lead over Halvorson is $1,312,000-love.
• SC-01: A few months ago, state Rep. Jenny Horne expressed interest in challenging Rep. Mark Sanford in the GOP primary, and her spokesman now says she's going to do it. Both candidates have made national news, but in very different ways. In an emotional speech this summer, Horne called for the Confederate flag to be removed from the South Carolina state House grounds. Horne also recently journeyed to Mississippi for a "change-the-flag" rally.
By contrast, Sanford attracted the world's attention in 2009 when he was serving as governor after he disappeared for several days. Sanford's staff said he was "hiking the Appalachian Trail," but he soon admitted he was really visiting his mistress in Argentina. Sanford managed to resurrect his political career in an unusual 2013 House special election. Sanford's name recognition allowed him to take first place in the GOP primary, and he defeated an underfunded opponent in the runoff. Team Blue tried to contest this 58-40 Romney seat, but Sanford won after he tied his opponent to national Democrats. Sanford faced no serious opposition for a full term.
This should be an interesting race to watch. Sanford's scandal will be seven years old by the time primary voters go to the polls; however, as we're seeing with David Vitter in the Louisiana gubernatorial race, old scandals are still dangerous. Sanford starts out with $738,000 in the bank, so Horne will need to prove she can raise money. However, Horne's opposition to the Confederate flag could cause her some trouble. A recent PPP statewide poll found that Republicans still want the flag flying over the capitol grounds by a 49-39 margin, so Sanford may be able to get some mileage out of this issue. In any case, a race with Mark Sanford shouldn't be boring.
• VA-04: There's a very good chance that court-ordered redistricting will make Republican Randy Forbes' 4th District a whole lot bluer, but Forbes doesn't seem to be preparing for a tough campaign right now. Forbes only raised $120,000 over the last three months, though he has a decent $741,000 on hand. Forbes is almost certainly waiting to see the final map before considering his 2016 plans.
Mayoral:
• New York, NY Mayor: Quinnipiac has offered up its first glimpse of a hypothetical Democratic primary for 2017, when New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio will be up for re-election. De Blasio has struggled mightily throughout his tenure, and several prominent fellow Democrats have refused to rule out a challenge. In a kitchen-sink scenario featuring several notable contenders, de Blasio leads with 41, city Comptroller Scott Stringer is far behind in second with 13, Brooklyn Rep. Hakeem Jeffries takes 7, and City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito brings up the rear with 4.
As you might expect, though, all three of these alternatives are not well-known. What's more, de Blasio's 41 percent is almost exactly what he earned in the 2013 primary, when he narrowly avoided a runoff by just clearing the 40-percent mark. If he's starting out in the same spot without a single negative campaign ad aired against him, that's a weak spot. And if he can't avoid a runoff this time, there's a good chance the anti-de Blasio brigades (who seem to harbor some serious venom) will coalesce behind whoever makes it to the second round with hizzoner.
The usual disclaimers apply: tons of time to go, no one's actually running yet, etc., etc. But these numbers don't look particularly good for the incumbent.
Grab Bag:
• Votes: Wednesday's vote on the "Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015" actually lived up to its billing, in that it was bipartisan-ish. The bill passed with the vote of 187 Democrats and 79 Republicans. However, 167 Republicans voted no—perhaps not surprising, since it deprives them of hostage-taking leverage until after the presidential election, by punting the next debt limit crisis all the way to March 2017. (As Joan McCarter points out, it doesn't truly eliminate all shutdown threats, though, because it only sets spending levels for two years, without providing a new continuing resolution that actually keeps the government's lights on.)
As with many budget bills, the split between the Republican yes and no coalitions illustrates the fissure between the establishmentarians and the nihilists. There really weren't a lot of surprises either way; the most surprising "yes" might be the once-tea-flavored Dan Benishek, but he's retiring and doesn't need to keep the façade up to deter a primary. One noteworthy "no" is the establishmentarian Todd Young, but he's running a competitive Senate primary against Marlin Stutzman, so he does need the façade.
Politico handily parsed out the votes of the most vulnerable House members (most vulnerable in the general, that is; people vulnerable in primaries, like Renee Ellmers, were unsurprisingly "no"). This helps identify the ones who'll be approaching next year by trying to win over swing voters (Bob Dold!, Mike Bost, John Katko, Carlos Curbelo, Martha McSally, and, interestingly, Bruce Poliquin, whose earlier incarnation in Maine was as a hard-liner but who has reinvented himself as a moderate in the House), vs. the ones who'll be trying to winning through base excitation (Mike Coffman, Frank Guinta, Cresent Hardy, Will Hurd, Daniel Webster, and, against type, Lee Zeldin), or who seem to have decided to go down with the ship (Rod Blum).
There was another key vote on Thursday: the speaker election, where nine Republicans broke ranks and supported Dan Webster instead of Paul Ryan. Unsurprisingly, there was 100 percent correlation between them and "no" votes on the budget: Dave Brat, Curt Clawson, Louie Gohmert, Paul Gosar, Walter Jones, Tom Massie, Bill Posey, Randy Weber, and Ted Yoho. Only six of the nine, though, are Freedom Caucus members: Jones and Massie, who are more Paulist in orientation, aren't, and neither, oddly, is Gohmert.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
