A new study was just released that attempts to quantify the amount of ice on Antarctica. It finds that up until 2008, the continent was gaining more ice than it was losing, a finding that contradicts the IPCC's estimate for Antarctica's contribution to the global sea level rise budget. The study has gotten some coverage in mainstream outlets and has, of course, led deniers to respond in predictable fashion.
The title of the study's press release—"Mass Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses"—makes it easy to see why deniers have been quick to jump on the story, but the study's lead author, Jay Zwally, makes an important statement towards the end of the release that should have prevented the deniers' rejoicing. Zwally states, "If the 0.27 millimeters per year of sea level rise attributed to Antarctica in the IPCC report is not really coming from Antarctica, there must be some other contribution to sea level rise that is not accounted for.”
Here’s the generic algebraic formula for sea level rise: SLR = ice melt + expansion. The amount of sea level rise—which we know because we can observe it—is equal to the sum of glacier and ice sheet melt plus the increase in water volume due to warming, known as thermal expansion. Even at face value, the study’s findings don’t indicate that climate change-induced sea level rise is not a major concern, because either thermal expansion or the melting of another big body of ice may be happening faster than we think. (Speaking of which, be sure to check out this gorgeous, interactive story from the New York Times: "Greenland is Melting Away.")
For a more detailed discussion on the study, as well as other similar and more up-to-date studies that come to the conclusion that the Antarctic is actually losing ice mass, see HotWhopper. Greg Laden, and Phil Plait both provide more information, while the Guardian covers a different study with newer data finding that Antarctic melt could add up to three meters to sea levels.
Finally, it's worth noting the inconsistency of deniers in reaction to the Antarctica study. When NASA scientists release studies confirming climate change, deniers say the scientists are obviously just in on the hoax and only alarmist papers can get published in the peer-reviewed literature. The Antarctica study proves the opposite, that studies contradicting the IPCC can still get published and promoted. Just don't expect any melting of deniers’ contradictory and intellectually frozen positions.
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