Leading Off:
• LA-Gov: So here's David Vitter's response to John Bel Edwards' scalding new ad about Vitter's prostitution scandal:
Fifteen years ago, I failed my family, but found forgiveness and love. I learned that our falls aren't what define us, but rather, how we get up, accept responsibility, and earn redemption. Now Louisiana has fallen on hard times. A budget crisis, low wages, failing schools. You know me. I'm a fighter. And as your governor, I'll get up every day to fight for you. For a much better, stronger Louisiana.
First off, you know that this isn't an ad Vitter wanted to cut—contra Edwards, whose team insists they've been raring to release their "prostitutes over patriots" spot since September. Secondly, while it's just this side of endearing when Alfred Pennyworth tells Bruce Wayne, "Why do we fall, sir? So that we can learn to pick ourselves up," it doesn't have quite the same effect when Vitter says it (especially since he lacks Michael Caine's charming accent).
And of course, he's comparing his own personal failings to Louisiana's struggles as a state—kind of icky, no? As Kaili Joy Gray pointed out, there's something weirdly trollish about the name Vitter's campaign originally chose for this ad: "Hard Times." Er, really? Even Team Vitter seemed to realize the issue, though, and belatedly renamed the spot "Difficult Times," despite the fact that Vitter actually uses the phrase "hard times" in his narration.
The question now, though, is whether this ad can actually neutralize Edwards' attacks, or whether it will just reinforce them. The record of "apology" ads is mixed: On the one hand, you have guys like Mark Sanford, who successfully pulled it off. But there are also plenty of Don Sherwoods and Tom Feeneys littering the landscape, too. Ultimately, as BeloitDem observes, "with two weeks left, even David Vitter is talking about David Vitter," so on that score alone, Edwards' decision to "go there" with his prostitution ad is definitely working.
Edwards did suffer a bit of a stumble with his own spot, though. The family of a National Guardsman named Thomas Florich, who died in a training accident earlier this year, complained about Edwards' use of images of tombstones in Arlington National Cemetery; Florich's relatives say Vitter helped ensure he could be buried at Arlington, even though he was not eligible under cemetery rules because he was not on active duty when he died. Edwards says he'll release a new version of he ad without the shots of Arlington.
Senate:
• AR-Sen: Former Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who was reportedly sniffing out a second bid for Senate, did not wind up filing when the deadline to do so passed on Monday. That'll leave the Democratic nomination to former U.S. Attorney Conner Eldridge, who is waging a longshot campaign against GOP Sen. John Boozman.
• CO-Sen: El Paso County Commissioner Peggy Littleton is reportedly considering a bid against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, though she hasn't said anything publicly. Littleton's colleague Darryl Glenn has been running since the beginning of the year to zero fanfare, and it's unclear if Littleton will get the attention of national Republicans who want to give Bennet a serious challenge.
However, we can cross one potential candidate off the list. State Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg briefly flirted with a bid, but told The Colorado Statesman last month that he won't run. The Statesman also says that state Senate President Bill Cadman and state Senate Majority Leader Mark Scheffel have ruled out bids as well. Neither man appears to have said "no" on the record, though they also never publicly expressed interest either.
• CO-, FL-, OH-, WI-Sen: On behalf of the Democratic group Democracy Corps, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research surveys four competitive Senate races.
In Colorado, they give Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet a 50-44 lead against GOP Rep. Scott Tipton. In Florida, they test Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy against Republican Rep. David Jolly, who sports a 44-43 edge. In Ohio, they have Democrat Ted Strickland and Republican incumbent Rob Portman tied at 47, and in Wisconsin, they find Democrat Russ Feingold leading Republican Sen. Ron Johnson 51-46. None of these results are particularly rosy for Democrats compared to other polls (though we've seen very few surveys out of Colorado). In fact, aside from Marquette in August, no one else has released numbers showing Wisconsin this close.
While there's little doubt who both parties will nominate in Ohio and Wisconsin, there's a lot more ambiguity in the other two states. While Tipton has not ruled out a bid, he hasn't taken any obvious steps towards running. As for Florida, Murphy and Jolly both face competitive primaries, and it's possible neither will make it to the general. Still, it makes sense why GQR tested the matchups it did.
In Colorado, Tipton is the best-known opponent Bennet could draw, so he makes for a good worst-case scenario for Democrats. Yes, one of Bennet's unheralded Republican foes could turn out to be a solid candidate like Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst did last year, but there's no way to account for that this far from Election Day. It's a good sign that Bennet is posting a lead against Tipton, though a 6-point edge is far from rock-solid this early on. In Florida, Jolly is probably the strongest candidate the GOP could get for the general election, so it makes sense for national Democrats to test him against Murphy, their preferred primary candidate.
• MD-Sen: Chris Van Hollen is up with his third ad in the Baltimore media market, where neither he nor his Democratic primary opponent, Donna Edwards, are well known. Van Hollen talks to the camera and argues that he knows "when to fight and when to find common ground."
Gubernatorial:
• DE-Gov: Several months ago, New Castle County Executive Tom Gordon, a Democrat, expressed interest in running for this open seat, but he said nothing about his plans after Rep. John Carney jumped in. Gordon now says his "plan is to run for re-election." Gordon hasn't explicitly said no to a gubernatorial run, but he doesn't seem to be doing anything whatsoever to gear up for a statewide bid, and in any case, he has bigger problems at home. Gordon fired David Grimaldi, a former top aide, last week: Gordon says that Grimaldi tried to use his position to get out of a traffic citation; Grimaldi says he was let go after he criticized Gordon. Now Grimaldi says he's considering running against his old boss.
• WV-Gov: Democratic billionaire Jim Justice has been airing ads portraying himself as a generous man who cares about his community, but Justice's foes just got a barrel full of ammunition for their future ads portraying him as a spoiled jackass.
The Bluefield Daily Telegraph posted a video of Justice getting pulled over by a police officer last December for speeding. In the video, we see the officer decide to give Justice a break and agree to change his citation from 14 miles per hour over the speed limit to just four, but Justice is far from satisfied with his light punishment. Justice is seen calling the officer a "total lunatic" and declares he wants him "to explain it to your boss."
The Justice campaign says he's apologized to the police chief, though it hasn't said anything about the actual officer he confronted. Justice's camp also blames likely GOP nominee Bill Cole for releasing the video, though Cole denies having anything to do with it. Justice faces state Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler in the Democratic primary, who also isn't wasting any time arguing that the incident proves Justice shouldn't be governor. It's yet another example of the risks you take running first-time candidate, particularly when they're wealthy businessmen used to getting their way.
House:
• AL-01: Tea partying businessman Dean Young only lost to Rep. Bradley Byrne 52-48 in the 2013 GOP primary runoff, and he's back for another try.
Young appears to be more of a perennial candidate who almost got lucky in a low-turnout race than a serious candidate. Young badly lost a 2002 runoff for secretary of state and only took 24 percent in a primary against then-Rep. Jo Bonner in 2012. Young never showed much of a talent for fundraising and doesn't appear to be capable of self-funding much more than a low six-figure amount.
Byrne has been a low-key conservative who doesn't appear to have upset the GOP base during his time in the House. Alabama's congressional primary also coincides with the March presidential primary, so Byrne should benefit from more casual voters showing up and supporting the name they recognize. Young's near-win last time means we should keep an eye on him, but Byrne remains the strong favorite. This Mobile-area seat will stay red regardless of who wins the GOP nod.
• CA-21: Democrat Andrae Gonzales, a member of the Bakersfield school board, is the latest Democrat to express interest in challenging Republican Rep. David Valadao. The Bakersfield Californian says that Gonzales is viewed as a rising star in Kern County Democratic politics, though it's unclear how serious he really is. While Gonzales has met with the DCCC, he was actually only in DC on an unrelated trip.
Daniel Parra is also running for Team Blue, and while national Democrats are utterly unimpressed by his fundraising, he's been consolidating local support. Parra's latest endorsement comes from Kern County Supervisor Leticia Perez, who lost a high-profile state Senate race in this area in 2013 and was mentioned as a possible candidate here last year.
• FL-21, 22: Redistricting is set to dramatically change Democratic Reps. Ted Deutch and Lois Frankel's South Florida seats, and while the two incumbents have pledged not to oppose one another, an ambitious Democrat is considering a campaign for one of the new seats. Attorney Stephanie Toothaker, who served as a special counsel to former Sen. Bob Graham, tells The National Journal that she's strongly considering running for Congress—just where exactly she's not sure yet.
Toothaker, who also served as co-lead counsel for Broward County for Obama's presidential campaign, sounds well-connected. North Florida Rep. Gwen Graham says that Toothaker is like a sister to her, though Graham also says she won't be getting involved. But Frankel and especially Deutch have been preparing for a primary challenge. Frankel raised $354,000 over the last three months and has $660,000; Deutch brought in a monster $636,000 during that time and has over $1 million on hand.
It's also possible another Democrat will try to take advantage of the chaos and run for one of these safely blue seats, but it's not clear if anyone else is interested. State Rep. Kristin Jacobs, who ran against Frankel in the 2012 open-seat primary, has been mentioned as a possible contender. However, Jacobs recently turned down a state Senate bid by saying she "just got elected to serve as a House member" and feels she has "an obligation to stay here as long as voters will have me." It's very unlikely that Jacobs is thinking about a run for the U.S. House after making a statement like that.
• MI-01: On Monday, GOP state Sen. Tom Casperson announced that he would run for this competitive open seat in northern Michigan. Casperson, then a state representative, badly lost his 2008 bid for this district against then-Rep. Bart Stupak, but Casperson seems to be well-regarded in GOP circles. In fact, there were rumors that Rep. Dan Benishek would only run for re-election in 2016 so that he could retire in 2018 and give Casperson a better chance to win the seat in a GOP-friendly midterm (Benishek ended up retiring this cycle).
But not everyone is on board with Casperson. Scott Hagerstrom, the former head of the state's Americans for Prosperity chapter, has formed a PAC to attack Casperson over taxes. It's unclear how much Hagerstrom's group will be able to spend, but expect Casperson's primary opponents to echo those attacks.
And it sounds like Casperson can expect an actual intra-party foe or two. The Petoskey News-Review says that state Rep. Peter Pettalia and ex-state Sen. Jason Allen are expected to enter the race next year. Both men have expressed interest in running, but neither has said much publicly since Benishek announced his departure in late September. Romney won this seat 54-45, but Democrats often do well in the area, and Team Blue has a well-funded candidate in Lon Johnson.
• MO-01: Dave Drebes, who publishes the highly regarded subscription-only newsletter Missouri Scout, has graciously given us access to a poll of the Democratic primary in Missouri's 1st Congressional District conducted for his publication by Remington Research. (Remington is a GOP pollster but Missouri Scout is a non-partisan tipsheet.) The survey finds Rep. Lacy Clay with a dominant 53-19 lead on state Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal, with 28 percent undecided.
Chappelle-Nadal does slightly better with white voters, losing them 47-21; she trails among blacks 58-18. Whites are a smaller portion of the primary electorate, though, making up 43 percent of this poll's sample, versus 54 percent who are African-American. In order to win, MCN probably has to dominate with whites while making sufficient inroads with blacks (which is why she's hammered Clay over his allegedly invisibility during the Ferguson protests, and why she's recently gone so far as to tout her Afro), but it can be tricky to do both at once.
Clay is a poor fundraiser (he took in just $78,000 in the last quarter), but for all his considerable faults as a congressman, he's an established name in his district. We haven't seen any fundraising numbers from Chappelle-Nadal yet, but she'll need more than just money to dislodge the incumbent.
• PA-16: On Monday, GOP state Sen. Lloyd Smucker announced that he would run for retiring Rep. Joe Pitts' southern Pennsylvania seat. A number of other Republicans have been mentioned as potential candidates here, and two more have expressed interest. Don Eberly, who served as an aide to Presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, says he's "leaning toward a run."
Meanwhile, businessman Chet Beiler says he expects to decide by early December, though Beiler's electoral record is nothing to be proud of. Lancaster County Commissioner Scott Martin expressed interest in running before Pitts finalized his departure, but Roll Call reported that he'd likely run for Smucker's state Senate seat instead.
Legislative:
• Special Elections: When in doubt, assume there's a special election in New Hampshire. Via Johnny Longtorso:
NH State House, Strafford-1: This is an open Republican seat near the Maine border, consisting of the towns of Middleton and Milton. The candidates here are Democrat Larry Brown, a former state representative, and Republican Robert Graham, a veteran. This seat went 50-49 for Mitt Romney and 54-46 for Scott Brown in 2014.
Mayoral:
• Houston, TX Mayor: On Friday, Adrian Garcia endorsed Sylvester Turner, a fellow Democrat. Garcia took 17 percent to earn third place in the Nov. 3 non-partisan primary; Turner and conservative Bill King advanced to the Dec. 12 runoff with 32 and 25 percent respectively. Garcia performed relatively well with Hispanic voters and he could help Turner, an African American, make inroads with this group.
Grab Bag:
• Alabama: It's super-early, but thanks to the state of Alabama, we had our first candidate filing deadline of 2016 on Friday, and AL.com has a list of candidates. GOP Sen. Richard Shelby and all seven of Alabama's House members (six Republicans and one Democrat) are all running for re-election.
Shelby never looked very vulnerable in the March has a massive $19 million on hand in any case. Jonathan McConnell, the founder of a global maritime security company, is running, but he won't have much of a shot unless he's rich or well-connected enough to spend huge amounts of money. Ex-state Sen. Shadrack McGill, who famously said that strippers had once shown up to his home at 1 AM, is also running, because why not. Unsurprisingly, the Democratic candidates are all of the Some Dude variety. With the possible exception of Republican Bradley Byrne (see our AL-01 item), none of the Yellowhammer State's House members face any serious opposition in the March 1 primary or in the general.
• Radio: On Sunday night, Jeff Singer appeared on the Kudzu Vine to discuss the Louisiana gubernatorial race runoff, as well as both parties' presidential primaries. Click here to listen to the recording.
• TX Redistricting: Unbelievable. Despite having had many years to come up with a solution for Texas' disputed maps for Congress and state House, the three-judge panel that has been hearing the main lawsuit against these maps since 2011 just ruled that the interim lines that have been in place for the last two cycles must once again be used for 2016. That means that at least three of the five elections scheduled for this decade will be run using maps whose constitutionality is in doubt—just ridiculous. The court held a second trial in the summer of 2014, but all the judges have to say is that they've been "working diligently" but have "not yet reached a final decision." The constitutional rights of 27 million people are at stake. This incredible sluggishness is neither justifiable nor acceptable.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.