Leading Off:
● CO-Sen: A number of Republicans have been running to challenge Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet for a while but even though the NRSC is not impressed with any of them, their preferred picks have decided not to join the campaign. However, Politico reports that the committee is now trying to recruit state Rep. Jon Keyser, who represents a suburban Jefferson County seat. Keyser is a veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and he served in the elite Wings of Blue parachuting team.
Keyser soon confirmed his interest to The Colorado Statesman, saying he was “strongly considering it.” Keyser says he’ll decide over the holidays, though unnamed sources tell the Statesman that he’s likely to kick off his campaign soon into the new year. National Republicans think that Keyser’s military background will be a big asset against Bennet at a time when fears about terrorism are on the upswing, and Keyser is already emphasizing national security.
The NRSC got a nasty surprise a few months ago when George Brauchler announced that he wouldn’t run, so they probably won’t rest easy until Keyser declares he’s in. Bennet’s win during the 2010 GOP wave proves he’s no pushover while Keyser has only run in a 52-46 Romney state House seat, so we’ll need to see if he has what it takes to win a top tier race in swingy Colorado. Still, it sounds like national Republicans are excited about Keyser and think he can give the formidable Bennet a tough challenge.
In the meantime, we have another Republican contender. We never heard Jefferson County Commissioner Donald Rosier's name mentioned here before but on Thursday, he announced that he would run. Rosier has a business background, so he may have access to some money. Rosier joins state Sen. Tim Neville, rich guy Robert Blaha, ex-Aurora Councilor Ryan Frazier, and a few minor Republicans in the GOP primary.
Senate:
● CA-Sen: Rep. Loretta Sanchez made it a few months without insulting a minority group, but she broke her streak on Wednesday. In an interview with Larry King Sanchez, a Democrat, declared that between 5 and 20 percent of Muslims "have a desire for a caliphate and to institute that in any way possible," including through the use of terrorism. Hopefully Sanchez's comments will hurt her, but that may too much to ask for at a time where Islamophobia is on the rise in the United States. Sanchez faces fellow Democrat Kamala Harris, the state attorney general, and three Republicans in the June top-two primary.
● LA-Sen: Another Republican is making noises about running to succeed retiring Sen. David Vitter. Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta announced on Wednesday night that he was forming an exploratory committee "investigating my possible candidacy for the United States Senate."
Skrmetta drew some negative attention last year after an email from a solar industry lobbyist emerged that indicated that the industry would "privately and publicly support his re-election" in exchange for Skrmetta's vote on a favorable regulatory policy. Skrmetta denied any wrongdoing and narrowly defeated another Republican to win re-election last year. Skrmetta represents a metro New Orleans district, which could be a problem for outgoing Jefferson Parish President John Young, another possible GOP candidate who would prefer not to face another strong Republican from the region.
Another Republican has also says he's formed an exploratory committee. Retired Col. Rob Maness, a tea partier who took 14 percent in last year's Senate jungle primary, recently opened a campaign committee with the FEC, but he only says he's formed an exploratory committee. It's unclear if Maness hasn't fully decided to get in or if he's just being cute.
Things are also slowly taking shape on the Democratic side. Foster Campbell, Skrmetta's colleague on the Public Service Commission, has been mentioned as a possible contender for a while, and he says he's "interested, real interested," though Campbell notes that he hasn't made a decision yet. Campbell ran for governor in 2007, but few Democrats gave him much of a chance against then-Rep. Bobby Jindal. Campbell ended up taking fourth place with just 12 percent of the vote in the jungle primary.
At this point, it's looking like we're in for a crowded race, at least on the GOP side. All the candidates will compete on one ballot in November and in the very likely event that no one takes a majority, the top two vote-getters will advance to a December runoff. Below is a who's who of all the names we've heard mentioned for this race, as well as any information about their plans. First up is the GOP:
● Public Service Commissioner and 2015 gubernatorial candidate Scott Angelle: Considering, may instead run for 3rd Congressional District
● Rep. Charles Boustany: Filed to run, has not announced yet
● Businessman and 2014 House candidate Zach Dasher: Mentioned
● Rep. John Fleming: Running
● State Rep. Paul Hollis: Considering
● State Treasurer and 2008 Senate nominee John Kennedy: Considering
● Retired Col. and 2014 Senate candidate Rob Maness: Formed exploratory committee
● Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta: Formed exploratory committee
● Jefferson Parish President and 2015 lieutenant governor candidate John Young: Considering
The possible Democratic field is a bit smaller in this conservative state:
● Public Service Commissioner and 2007 gubernatorial candidate Foster Campbell: Considering
● Ex-U.S. Attorney and ex-Rep. Don Cazayoux: Reportedly being recruited
● Attorney and 2010 lieutenant governor nominee Caroline Fayard: Reportedly considering
● State Sen. Gary Smith: Mentioned
Independent Troy Hebert, a former Democratic state legislator who is leaving a job in the Jindal administration, is also openly considering a bid. The filing deadline isn't until July 22, so it may take a while for things to take shape.
House:
● CA-21: Democrats have struggled to find a viable candidate against Republican Rep. David Valadao in this Obama 55-44 Central Valley seat, but attorney Emilio Huerta says he's interested in getting in. Huerta is the son of United Farm Workers co-founder Dolores Huerta, and his family connections could give him a leg up in fundraising and some initial name recognition. Huerta says he expects to decide in early 2016. Right now, Fowler Mayor Pro-Tem Daniel Parra has the Democratic field to himself, but he's badly struggled with fundraising.
● CA-24: A number of influential Democrats have gotten behind Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal, and the powerful California Federation of Teachers endorsed him this week. Carbajal's main Democratic foe is Santa Barbara Mayor Helene Schneider.
● CA-25: Democrats are hoping to target freshman Republican Steve Knight in this 50-48 Romney seat, but all of their candidates have struggled with fundraising. On Thursday, attorney Bryan Caforio announced that he would challenge Knight, so maybe he'll be able to raise the money he'll need to compete in this expensive Antelope Valley district. Caforio says he's already raised $50,000, though he didn't have an FEC account open as of Thursday morning.
Caforio only recently moved into the district and Knight, whose father represented this area in the legislature, is sure to portray him as a carpetbagger if Caforio makes it past the top-two primary. However, Caforio's wife Lisa comes from a long-established Antelope Valley family, which could help him dispel the outsider label.
● IL-01: Rep. Bobby Rush's son, Flynn Rush, initially filed to run in the Democratic primary against state Rep. Barbara Flynn Currie, an ally of powerful Speaker Michael Madigan, and we wondered if Madigan would target the elder Rush to draw some fire away from her. However, Flynn ended his campaign this week, and the Capitol Fax's Rich Miller says that he probably didn't have enough valid petitions to qualify for the ballot. Rep. Rush faces a primary challenge of his own from Chicago Alderman Howard Brookins; Brookins argues that Rep. Rush doesn't have enough valid petition signatures to make it to the ballot either, though it's unclear at this point if he has a case.
● MS-04: On Tuesday, Biloxi Councilor Robert Deming III announced that he would challenge Rep. Steven Palazzo in the GOP primary for this safely red Gulf Coast seat. Palazzo pulled off an unexpectedly weak 51-43 victory against ex-Democratic Rep. Gene Taylor in last year's primary, and he might be vulnerable again.
However, Palazzo's poor performance may have had more to do with Taylor than with him. Taylor had a reservoir of good will even with many Republicans, especially after his work helping the area recover from Hurricane Katrina, and the primary voters who backed Taylor last time may not have any real animus towards Palazzo. The primary is March 8, so Deming doesn't have much time to get his name out.
State Sen. Chris McDaniel, who almost knocked off Sen. Thad Cochran in last year's Senate runoff, hinted that he'd challenge Palazzo at the beginning of the year, but he's been silent since then. The filing deadline is Jan. 8 so if McDaniel is still interested, he has less than a month to decide.
● NC-02: The anti-establishment Club For Growth recently threw its support behind GOP county chairman Jim Duncan, who is challenging Rep. Renee Ellmers for renomination. However, Ellmers just picked up an endorsement from Defending Main Street, a group connected to ex-Rep. Steve LaTourette that exists to help more moderate Republicans. Ellmers herself is no moderate, but she's occasionally been willing to part with tea party orthodoxy if she thinks it will damage her party's electoral prospects. It's unclear how much help Defending Main Street will be to Ellmers: The group spent $1.6 million in 2014, which is a fraction of what the Club for Growth can dish out.
● NV-04: Democratic state Sen. Ruben Kihuen has been attracting some major labor support, and SEIU Local 1107 is the latest group to endorse him. Kihuen still faces a major cash deficit against businesswoman and primary rival Susie Lee; ex-Assembly Speaker John Oceguera and ex-Assemblymember Lucy Flores are also competing to face freshman Republican Cresent Hardy in this Democratic leaning seat. Nevada's most influential labor group, the Culinary Workers Union, has not yet weighed in.
● PA-02: Democratic Rep. Chaka Fattah may be under indictment, but he still has plenty of influential friends. The Black Ward Leaders threw the congressman its support, and a number of notable Philadelphia politicians, including outgoing Mayor Michael Nutter, are supporting him in the crowded primary for this safely blue seat.
● PA-16: At some point, Eastern Lancaster County School District board member Thomas Wentzel joined the GOP primary to succeed retiring Rep. Joe Pitts. Wentzel will face businessman Chet Beiler and state Sen. Lloyd Smucker for the GOP nod in this 52-46 Romney seat.
● VA-10: On Thursday, real estate executive LuAnn Bennett announced that she would challenge freshman Republican Barbara Comstock in this light red Northern Virginia seat. Bennett may be capable of partially self-funding, and while a few other notable Democrats have been named dropped here, no one looks ready to challenge her in the primary. Republicans are wasting no time arguing that Bennett, who only just moved into the district from exurban Fauquier County, is a carpetbagger.
Romney only won this seat 50-49 and Democrats want to beat Comstock this cycle before she can become entrenched. But it's not going to be easy for Team Blue to unseat Comstock, who is a formidable fundraiser and an experienced campaigner.
Legislative:
● KY State House, KY-01: Democratic state Rep. John Tilley was mentioned as a possible contender for the 1st Congressional District, but he's instead taking a post as state justice and public safety secretary in Republican Gov. Matt Bevin's administration. Tilley never seemed very likely to run for Congress, but his departure has some potentially serious implications for Bluegrass State Democrats as they try to maintain their majority in the state House.
Tilley's seat backed Romney 54-45 and if Team Red picks it up in the upcoming special election, Democrats will be down to just a 52-48 edge in the chamber. The whole state House is up in 2016 and if the GOP takes a majority, they'll have control of the state government at long last.
And don't be surprised if Bevin sends some more job offers to Democratic legislators to hurry things along. Indeed, this is exactly what Bevin's Democratic predecessor Steve Beshear did in 2009. Beshear appointed a number of Republican state senators to various posts and Democrats worked hard to pick up their seats in the ensuing special elections. Team Blue came close to making enough gains to take the state Senate but fell a little short, and the 2010 GOP wave wiped out their progress soon after.
Other Races:
● PA-AG: It's been clear for a long time that indicted Attorney General Kathleen Kane, a Democrat, will not be re-elected next year. On Wednesday, the state Senate unanimously voted to hold a January hearing to see if Kane can continue in office now that her law license has been suspended. It's unclear if a supermajority of the state Senate can legally vote to remove her next month, or if the slower impeachment process will be needed. Kane initially kicked off her re-election bid and while she hasn't dropped out of the race, she admitted back in September that she wasn't sure she could run with a suspended license.
The race to replace Kane has been going on for a while. On the Democratic side, prosecutor Jack Stollsteimer and former Allegheny County Councilor David Fawcett have been in for a while. On Wednesday, longtime Allegheny County District Attorney Stephen Zappala also kicked off his bid.
Another prominent Keystone State Democrat is also on the move here. Montgomery County Commissioner Chair Josh Shapiro hasn't announced he's in yet, but on Thursday, he released a Global Strategy Group survey giving him a 18-16 edge against Zappala. Northampton County District Attorney John Morganelli, another prospective candidate, takes 8, while Fawcett and Stollsteimer are at 4 and 3 respectively. On the GOP side, state Sen. John Rafferty and state Rep. Todd Stephens are in.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
