Leading Off:
● Houston, TX Mayor: Voters in America's fourth-largest city went back to the polls on Saturday for the runoff, and they gave longtime Democratic state Rep. Sylvester Turner a narrow 51-49 victory over businessman and ex-Kemah Mayor Bill King, a conservative independent. This was Turner's third campaign for this post: All the way back in 1991, Turner lost the runoff 53-47 to Bob Lanier, and he took third place in 2003.
Houston leans Democratic, but poor turnout from Team Blue almost allowed King to become the city's first non-Democratic mayor since Republican Jim McConn left office in 1982. Questions about the city's financial stability also dominated the runoff contest. Falling oil prices have led to job losses, and the city faces a large deficit: The issues likely helped King, who campaigned as a fiscal conservative. However, Turner's strong base of support with African Americans gave him a boost, and he benefited from the support of third-place primary finisher Adrian Garcia. Because of a new voter-approved law, Turner will be eligible to serve two four-year terms; previous mayors were limited to three two-year terms.
Senate:
● LA-Sen: Democratic state Sen. Gary Smith has been mentioned as a possible candidate for this open seat, and LAPolitics reports that he is speaking to the DSCC about running. Smith represents a seat located between Baton Rouge and New Orleans that backed Romney 55-43, so he has some experience winning over the type of crossover voters a Democrat needs to win statewide. Smith is also capable of doing some self-funding. While Team Blue won't have an easy time winning a federal race in Louisiana, a few other Democrats are looking at this developing contest.
House:
● FL-10, 05: Democratic Rep. Corrine Brown hasn't given up trying to save her current district, which stretches from Jacksonville to Orlando, in federal court. However, unless Brown pulls off a longshot legal win or just decides to retire, she'll need to campaign in a dramatically redrawn seat. Until now, it looked likely that Brown would choose to run in the 5th District, which contains her Jacksonville base and now reaches into Tallahassee. However, Brown advisor Lavern Kelly said on Wednesday night that the congresswoman plans to move down to Orlando and run in the 10th District instead.
If Brown goes through with this, she'll dramatically alter the Democratic primary in both safely blue seats. In the 10th, 2012 nominee and former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings and state Sen. Geraldine Thompson are already running, and former state party chair Bob Poe is talking about getting in as well. The new 10th only includes a portion of Brown's current seat and her rivals would undoubtedly portray her as a carpetbagger, but she could secure a plurality in a crowded primary.
Over in the 5th, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum says he'll decide on his plans after the holidays, and his odds would probably increase if Brown isn't there. However, ex-state Sen. Al Lawson, who also hails from Tallahassee, could still run. It's also quite possible that other Jacksonville-based Democrats could eye this seat if Brown isn't running here.
● FL-13: GOP state Sen. Jack Latvala recently ended his bid to lead the chamber, and he's hinting he'll seek another office. There are rumors that Latvala is interested in running for the 13th District, and Latvala did nothing to shoot them down when he was asked about them on Friday.
Latvala wouldn't need to sacrifice his state Senate seat if he runs next year. However, Latvala or any other Republican wouldn't have an easy time winning this redrawn St. Petersburg seat, which Obama carried 55-44. Latvala's district stops at the more conservative suburbs north of St. Petersburg, so he wouldn't start out with a huge amount of name recognition. Team Red is hoping to land popular ex-Mayor Rick Baker, who is probably the only Republican who could keep this seat red.
● FL-26: Democratic businesswoman Annette Taddeo got some good news when the Florida Supreme Court redrew this Miami-area district, turning it from a seat that Obama carried 53-46 to one he took 55-44. However, another Democrat is now making noises about challenging freshman Republican Carlos Curbelo in this bluer constituency. Andrew Korge, the son of prominent Democratic fundraiser Chris Korge, has been making calls to prospective donors, and he told the Miami Herald that he's considering getting in.
While the already-vulnerable Curbelo is in real trouble in the redrawn seat next year, this race won't be a slam-dunk for Team Blue. Plenty of voters still select Republicans downballot, and Curbelo would benefit from a nasty Democratic primary. And even if Korge doesn't jump in, another Democrat may. Korge says he met with Joe Garcia, whom Curbelo unseated last year, and Garcia left the impression he was considering another bid. Garcia was asked about his plans way back in August, and he refused to rule out a comeback then.
There are plenty of Democrats who would rather Garcia stayed out. Last year, Garcia's former campaign manager went to prison after being convicted in a 2012 voter fraud scheme and while there's no evidence that Garcia knew about it, the whole matter didn't make him look good. Garcia's ill-advised use of sarcasm and utterly disgusting habits also didn't do him much good. While Charlie Crist carried Garcia's seat 51-46 in last year's gubernatorial race (Taddeo was Crist's running mate), Curbelo beat Garcia 51-49, and Team Blue would probably benefit from a fresh face here.
● NY-11: Before he was elected to Congress in a June special election, Republican Dan Donovan served as Staten Island's district attorney. Last year, Donovan earned national attention after he was unable to secure a grand jury indictment for the police officer that killed Eric Garner. Now, Garner's 25-year old daughter Erica Garner says she's interested in challenging Donovan.
While Obama carried this seat, Garner's chances would not be good. As we noted last year, Staten Islanders tend to take the NYPD's side during times of controversy. Indeed, while a January Quinnipiac poll showed that New Yorkers overwhelmingly disapproved of the grand jury's decision not to indict the officer who killed Eric Garner, Staten Islanders said the grand jury made the right call by a 56-37 margin, and it's unlikely that they've changed their mind since then.
It's very understandable why Erica Garner wants to challenge Donovan after what happened to her father, but if Donovan ends up losing next year, it almost certainly won't be because of Eric Garner. No other notable Democrats have made any noises about running here, and after Donovan's easy win in June, it's unlikely any will.
Legislative:
● NY State Senate: On Friday, ex-state Senate Republican Leader Dean Skelos and his son Adam were both found guilty on corruption charges. Skelos' conviction comes a little more than a week after ex-Democratic Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver was also found guilty in a different corruption case. Skelos was automatically removed from office following the conviction, and a special election will be held April 19 for Skelos' Long Island seat.
Obama carried Skelos' district 54-46, and Democrats will likely make a play for this seat. Assemblyman Todd Kaminsky (a grand-nephew of comedian Mel Brooks) has been mentioned as a possible candidate. Kaminsky, who served on the team that successfully prosecuted then-Rep. Michael Grimm, released a brief statement Friday pledging to "do whatever it takes to make serious, lasting reform," which isn't going to dispel speculation that he'll get in. If Team Blue can flip this seat, they'll have a one-seat majority in the Senate.
Of course, this is New York, where having the most seats doesn't mean you control the chamber. Five nominally Democratic senators belong to the Independent Democratic Conference, which is still allied with the GOP. The group infamously caucused with the Republicans and allowed Skelos to continue to run the Senate in 2012, even though the GOP had a minority of the seats then. A sixth senator, Simcha Felder, also caucuses with the GOP even though he continues to identify as a Democrat. Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo has also made it little secret that he prefers working with a Republican-run Senate than a Democratic one, and he's unlikely to do much to help Team Blue in the special. Still, if Democrats want to take a real, working majority, they'll want to begin the process by flipping this district.
Grab Bag:
● Demographics: The Census Bureau released its 2010-2014 American Community Survey data last week! If you're wondering why that dry-sounding statement merits an exclamation point, it's because this is the first time we have two ACS five-year data sets that don't overlap. (The randomly sampled ACS has only been in existence since 2005. Because of sample size issues, you need the five-year survey to see what’s going on in every county and city, not just the biggest ones.) Now, we can draw a direct comparison with the 2005-2009 ACS, which, conveniently, gives us a "before" and "after" picture of the late-00s recession throughout the country.
Time has put this data to good use, creating an interactive map that compares median household income (MHI) in every county between the 2005-09 and 2010-14 samples. They also correct the older sample for inflation, so there's more of a sense of apples-to-apples. If you poke around the map, you'll see that a majority of counties haven't fully recovered even now; they have a slightly lower MHI now than the inflation-adjusted MHI from then. The big gainers tend to be areas with resource extraction and they're not just the oil patches in North Dakota and Texas that you'd expect, but even some coal-oriented parts of Appalachia. The areas that fared the worst seem to be rural areas without much of anything but service industry jobs. Big metropolitan areas, by contrast, lost only a small amount of ground, with Detroit and Atlanta seeming to have fared worse than others.
There are some minor quibbles, though. There's the wee matter that things have changed quite a bit even in the last few years that a five-year rolling sample might not capture. Big cities seem to have thrived more, while the drop in oil prices has probably reversed some of North Dakota and Texas's gains. The one-year ACS doesn't cover every county because of sample size issues, though, so unfortunately this is the best they can do for now.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.