Leading Off:
● FL-23: Members of Congress often receive primary challenges from unheralded opponents, and almost as often, they go nowhere. But once in a great while, a Some Dude manages the incredibly unlikely feat of knocking off an incumbent, like when college professor Dave Brat stunned House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in 2014—an upset that every little-known first-time candidate dreams of repeating.
That's the same dream that another university professor—this time a Democrat, Tim Canova—is busy chasing. Canova recently launched a challenge to Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who's best known as chair of the Democratic National Committee. Yet despite holding a post whose chief goal is to bring the party together, Wasserman Schultz has done a terrific job of alienating a whole lot of people, even Barack Obama, the man who appointed her to the position in the first place.
Wasserman Schultz has also infuriated progressives. Even though she's the titular head of the party, she's dissented from the right on many occasions. She's supported fast-track trade negotiation authority, opposed medical marijuana, and dragged her heels on the Iran nuclear deal (though she ultimately got behind it late in the game). And notoriously, when she ran the DCCC's "Red to Blue" program in 2008, she refused to help a trio of South Florida Democrats running against incumbent Republicans—because those Republicans were her friends.
Bernie Sanders supporters, meanwhile, have also accused her of abusing her role as DNC chair to help Hillary Clinton and undermine Sanders. Canova, who once worked for Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas, takes that position as well, but he also argues that Wasserman Schultz has grown aloof from her own district—exactly what many observers concluded was ultimately the cause of Cantor's downfall.
But while this has always felt like a satisfying explanation for such a shocking turn of events, we have no real proof this is actually why Cantor lost a primary almost no one thought he could lose. Same, too, with Wasserman Schultz: Some unhappy constituents will undoubtedly claim that she cares more about D.C. than she does about Pembroke Pines. But is it true? And do they speak for a sizable portion of Democratic primary voters? No one can say.
But even if Wasserman Schultz really has "gone Washington" in the minds of many constituents, that's unlikely to be enough for Canova to unseat her. Brat, for instance, had the aid of popular conservative radio host Laura Ingraham, and Cantor made some mistakes, like running TV attack ads that only seemed to boost Brat's name recognition. Wasserman Schultz can learn from all of those errors and avoid them.
She also won't lack for money. What's more, Florida holds its presidential and congressional primaries months apart, so Canova won't be able to rely on enthusiasm from Sanders voters to trickle down to him. Even if he does everything right, he'll still need a lot of luck, magic, and a miracle or two to pull this off. Everyone wants to be the next Dave Brat, but it's no easy feat. And no one wants to be the next Eric Cantor, so you can bet Wasserman Schultz will do everything she can to avoid that fate.
4Q Fundraising:
● AZ-Sen: Ann Kirkpatrick (D): $600,000 raised; Kelli Ward (R): $140,000 raised
● CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc): $2 million raised, $6.7 million cash-on-hand; Ryan Frazier (R): $200,000 raised (in seven weeks)
● NC-Sen: Richard Burr (R-inc): $817,000 raised, $5.3 million cash-on-hand
● VA-Gov: Ralph Northam (D): $1 million (for 2015), $720,000 cash-on-hand
● ME-02: Emily Cain (D): $277,000 raised, $550,000 cash-on-hand
Senate:
● CO-Sen: For a contest that so many top Republicans passed on, Colorado's GOP Senate primary is awfully crowded, albeit with second- and third-string candidates. The latest to join is El Paso County Commissioner Peg Littleton, which actually makes her the second El Paso commissioner in the race, along with Darryl Glenn. Also running are (deep breath): wealthy businessman Robert Blaha; former Aurora City Councilor Ryan Frazier; ex-state Rep. Jon Keyser; state Sen. Tim Neville; Jefferson County Commissioner Donald Rosier; and an assortment of Some Dudes. Businessman Jerry Natividad has said he'll "probably" run, too.
The most likely explanation for this high level of interest is that no one is particularly intimidated by anyone else in the primary—the same sort of circumstances that gave rise to the massive field of Republicans running for president this year. But even if they don't fear each other, these contenders have every reason to be worried about Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, who remains the favorite.
● FL-Sen: Polls of Florida's Senate primaries haven't been very revealing so far, and with good reason: In such a huge state, almost any candidate will start off mostly unknown, and no one has spent any real money on TV yet (which is still the chief medium for introducing yourself to large swaths of voters). Generally, though, what we have seen has been pretty consistent so far on both sides, so there's nothing inherently surprising about Florida Atlantic University's new survey.
For Democrats, Rep. Alan Grayson holds a 27-20 lead on fellow Rep. Patrick Murphy, with a sizable 45 percent undecided—in line with last year's polling. (PPP, for instance, had Grayson up 33-27 in September.) Murphy's much better funded, though, so things will start to change once the air wars heat up—but Grayson could always dip into his considerable personal wealth, estimated at some $30 million.
Among Republicans, meanwhile, Rep. David Jolly takes 28 while Rep. Ron DeSantis and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera are both at 8 percent and our buddy "undecided" clocks in with 50. Again, this is very similar to the handful of polls we saw in 2015, all of which gave Jolly a small edge. Taken together, this continued lead makes Jolly's extraordinary decision to stop fundraising on his own behalf even more remarkable: Since when does a frontrunner basically give up on himself?
Jolly always had a tricky path to the nomination, since he and Lopez-Cantera are fighting over the establishment mantle while DeSantis has the tea party "lane" all to himself. But still, man, why keep running if you're not even going to try?
● IN-Sen: On Wednesday, former non-profit executive John Dickerson ended his bid for the Democratic nomination. Dickerson didn't raise much money during his opening quarter, and he acknowledged that his fundraising wasn't strong when he pulled the plug on his campaign. Ex-Rep. Baron Hill is the only notable Democrat left seeking this open seat. Hill's own fundraising hasn't exactly been gangbusters either (though he has yet to release his tally from the last three months of 2015), but he could put up a fight if tea partying Rep. Marlin Stutzman wrestles the GOP nod from Rep. Todd Young.
● NY-Sen: Well, on the plus side, if Wendy Long runs for Senate again, maybe Dinesh D'Souza will finally wind up in prison this time.
Gubernatorial:
● MT-Gov: Technically speaking, wealthy Republican businessman Greg Gianforte had only been "exploring" a bid for governor until now, but on Wednesday, he made his campaign official. Gianforte faces Public Service Commissioner Brad Johnson for the GOP nod, but Democrats have long been treating Gianforte as though they expect him to be the Republican nominee against Gov. Steve Bullock. But while Gianforte can bring plenty of money to the race, he also brings baggage: A in-depth new profile from BuzzFeed recounts Gianforte's long (and generous) history of anti-gay advocacy.
Among other things, Gianforte led the charge against a non-discrimination ordinance in his hometown of Bozeman less than two years ago. (One email he sent to city leaders: "Homosexual advocates try to argue that businesses are leery of locating in towns that aren't friendly to homosexuals. I believe the opposite is truer.") Fortunately, the measure still passed. That's not all, though: Over the last six years, Gianforte has given $1.1 million to groups dedicated to thwarting the cause of LGBT equality and undermining reproductive rights.
Montana may be a red state, but it's not an arch-conservative one, and like many other parts of the West, it retains something of a libertarian bent. And even Gianforte knows that his activist evangelical message won't play well, since he's largely kept quiet about his social views ever since he began campaigning. We'll see if Democrats bring them up on the campaign trail, but it wouldn't be surprising if they do: In 2012, Sen. Jon Tester appeared with Planned Parenthood president Cecile Richards while he was campaigning for re-election in order to highlight his commitment to reproductive freedom. Bullock may choose to make an issue of social issues, too.
● WI-Gov: Thirty-six states have some form of gubernatorial term limits, but Wisconsin is not one of them. That means that GOP Gov. Scott Walker could in fact seek a third term come 2018, despite his humbling bid for president and despite his terrible job approval ratings (just 38 percent positive against 58 percent negative, according to Marquette—far worse than anyone ever found on the eve of the ill-fated 2012 recall).
But three years is a lot of time, and Walker can hope that memories of unhappier times will fade by then, which may explain why he just sent out a fundraising email that spoke of his "re-election campaign." The immediate purpose of the solicitation was to retire $1 million debt accumulated by his presidential campaign, so Walker could simply be using the more appealing prospect of an upcoming race to encourage supporters to contribute to the less appealing cause of resolving the obligations a failed campaign. But Wisconsinites may yet see Walker on the ballot one more time come 2018.
House:
● GA-03: On Wednesday, state Sen. Mike Crane became the first credible candidate to announce that he would run for this safely red seat. While state Sens. Josh McKoon and Marty Harbin and state Rep. David Stover all appeared to be interested in running here themselves, they're all backing Crane instead. State House Majority Whip Matt Ramsey also ruled out a bid, though he's not in Crane's corner.
However, Crane is unlikely to have an easy race. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Aaron Gould Sheinin says that ex-Rep. Mac Collins is reportedly considering running here, though Collins has yet to say anything publicly. Collins represented a previous version of this seat for 12 years, but he left in 2004 to unsuccessfully run for the Senate. Collins tried to get back to the House two years later by challenging Democratic Rep. Jim Marshall, but he narrowly lost the general election. Collins' son Mike sought the GOP nod for a neighboring seat last year, but he lost the runoff to Jody Hice.
Jeff Brown, who left the state House a decade ago, has also formed an exploratory committee, but he hasn't declared he's in yet. Matt Brass, who serves as retiring Rep. Lynn Westmoreland's chief of staff, has also expressed interest, though he didn't come across as incredibly excited. Sheinin says that the local Chamber of Commerce is looking for a candidate, but while it sounds like Crane isn't their cup of tea, it's unclear if they're at all interested in Collins, Brown, or Brass.
● IL-08: Dick Durbin's been busy. Illinois' senior senator has now issued his second endorsement in a Chicago-area House race this week, this time backing businessman Raja Krishnamoorthi over state Sen. Mike Noland and Villa Park Mayor Deb Bullwinkel in the Democratic primary. (Previously, Durbin gave his blessing to Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering in the 10th District.)
Krishnamoorthi's led the race for the solidly blue 8th by just about every available metric, including endorsements (Nancy Pelosi also supports him) and fundraising. He did trail Noland slightly in an October poll conducted for Bullwinkel (who trailed in it, oddly enough), but Krishnamoorthi will have much more money to get his name out there than his competitors will as the March 15 primary approaches.
● NE-02: Earlier this week, Republican pollster Remington Research released a poll giving former state Sen. Chip Maxwell a 31-10 lead over retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Don Bacon in the GOP primary. Remington says the poll wasn't done on anyone's behalf, but Maxwell is trying to reinforce the idea that he's leading Bacon, whom national Republicans prefer to the cash-strapped Maxwell. Maxwell is only now releasing a November primary poll from MSR Group that gives him a 30-14 edge over Bacon.
Both Republicans hope to face freshman Democrat Brad Ashford, who is trying to defend a Romney 53-46 Omaha seat. Maxwell doesn't appear to have tested the general election but he did ask GOP primary voters whether they'd prefer him or Ashford, and they back him 64-22. That's not exactly an incredible number.
● NY-03: While two Democrats have kicked off bids to succeed Steve Israel in this open swing seat and a number of others have talked about running, there are plenty of people who have just been mentioned. However, Spencer Rumsey of the Long Island Press tells us that about a dozen Democrats are meeting with Nassau Democratic Chairman Jay Jacobs and other party leaders, which gives us a good idea of which of the name-dropped politicians are actually interested.
Rumsey tells us that Nassau Interim Finance Authority Chairman Jon Kaiman; Assemblyman Charles Lavine; Huntington Supervisor Frank Petrone; businessman Todd Richman; philanthropist Laurie Scheinman; and DNC member Robert Zimmerman are meeting with party leaders. None of these people have publicly expressed interest, though Zimmerman has reportedly been making calls ahead of a possible bid. Suffolk County Legislator William Spencer and ex-Suffolk County Legislator Jon Cooper had previously voiced interest, and they're also meeting with these leaders.
It's unclear at this point how interested each of these people are in joining what will be a tough race, but we'll want to keep all these names in the maybe pile until we hear otherwise. Right now, only Suffolk County Legislator Steve Stern and North Hempstead Town Board member Anna Kaplan have actually kicked off their bids on the Democratic side. However, lobbyist Brad Gerstman and ex-Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi have formed exploratory committees.
Things are also slowly taking shape on the GOP side. State Sen. Jack Martins hasn't announced he's in yet, but he's filed with the FEC. However, local Republicans are worried that if Martins gives up his Senate competitive seat to run for Congress, they'll have a tough time holding their small majority. Their attempts to convince him to stay in the legislature don't seem to be working though. A Martins strategist says the senator is "definitely running," though of course, you're not running for Congress until you actually say you're running for Congress. Assemblyman Chad Lupinacci and Suffolk County Legislator Rob Trotta have also filed with the FEC but have yet to announce they're in.
● NY-19: While local Democratic county chairs coalesced around law professor Zephyr Teachout over the weekend, other potential Democratic candidates haven't ruled out seeking this Hudson Valley swing seat anyway. Ulster County Comptroller Elliott Auerbach says he's still considering, and expects to decide what he's doing by the end of the month.
Livingston Town Councilman Will Yandik also hasn't ruled out a bid, while former congressional aide Dan Ahouse said he'd attend a Wednesday forum for potential candidates. Teachout hasn't announced that she's in yet either, though she says she'll make a final decision by the end of the week. It's incredibly weird that the county chairs endorsed Teachout, who only moved to this area a year ago, before finding out if she'll actually run here, especially when there are other interested candidates.
● VA-02, 07: After court-ordered redistricting transformed Republican Rep. Randy Forbes' seat into a safely blue district, it looked like his House career was over. However, fellow GOP Rep. Scott Rigell's decision to retire may have given Forbes a new lease on life. According to Rigell's spokeswoman, Rigell is encouraging Forbes to run for his open 2nd District, and he'll "fully support him if he makes the decision to do so." Rigell originally pushed for ex-state Sen. Jeff McWaters to run here (McWaters quickly declined), so it's not like Rigell is just leaving Congress in order to help Forbes.
Forbes has not yet publicly expressed interest in running for the swingy 2nd District, but it sounds like he's very interested in going for it. Over the weekend, a former 2nd District Republican Committee head said that Forbes was eyeing this seat, and Virginia Beach Mayor Will Sessoms also says that Forbes is mulling a bid here. Forbes' office isn't doing anything to tamp down on the speculation either: While they haven't said that Forbes is looking to run for the 2nd, they said in a statement last week that the congressman is "actively weighing what the best option is for continuing his fight for the people of the commonwealth and national security of the country."
If Forbes runs here, his victory is far from assured. Forbes doesn't currently represent any of the new 2nd District, though he does have some name recognition in the Hampton Roads area from his long service in a neighboring seat. Del. Scott Taylor is seeking the GOP nod and he's wasting little time portraying Forbes as a carpetbagger, saying he would be "shocked" if Forbes "abandon[ed]" his old seat while he's trying to save it in court in order to preserve his career.
It's also unclear if Forbes would need to get through a traditional primary or if he'd need to claim the GOP nod at a low-turnout firehouse primary or at a convention. The GOP has about six weeks to decide how they want to select their nominee and a convention would probably be the worst option for Forbes: Conventions tend to be dominated by ideological delegates who probably wouldn't be interested in selecting an establishment-oriented candidate like Forbes. Romney only won this seat 51-49, though no Democrats have expressed interest in running here yet.
Forbes' interest in the 2nd is bad news for one of his GOP colleagues. Over in the Richmond-area 7th District, tea partying Rep. Dave Brat faces a primary against Henrico Sheriff Mike Wade. Forbes represents a portion of the 7th and he didn't rule out running here last year. Wade is backed by much of the local GOP establishment, and he probably would have lost more votes to Forbes than Brat would have. But unless Forbes completely changes course and runs for the 7th instead, Wade has to be breathing a sigh of relief.
● WA-07: When longtime Rep. Jim McDermott announced that he would retire two weeks ago, plenty of Seattle Democrats quickly expressed interest in running to succeed him. But there's mostly just been silence since then, punctuated by the occasional demurral (most surprisingly from state Sen. David Frockt). Is it possible that state Rep. Brady Walkinshaw's aggressive fundraising and endorsement rollout (which may have helped encourage McDermott's retirement) actually deterred the many potential Democratic rivals who've been circling this seat for years?
Well, there's finally another contestant for this safely blue seat, and it's (almost) the name you know: Joe McDermott. The considerably younger McDermott, who represents West Seattle on the King County Council, is not related to Jim. (Like Walkinshaw, he's gay, and an across-the-board progressive.) Amusingly, McDermott's full name is "James Joseph McDermott." However, McDermott has confirmed to Seattle Weekly that in his drive to become the distinguished gentleman from Washington, he'll be running as Joe, not Jim.
● WY-AL: This week, state Sen. Leland Christensen kicked off his bid to succeed retiring Rep. Cynthia Lummis in this safely red seat. Lummis hasn't taken sides in the GOP primary, though her daughter is one of Christensen's co-chairs. Christensen also has the support of Laramie County Sheriff Danny Glick, the top lawman in Wyoming's largest county.
Kind of surprisingly, Christensen represents Obama's best Wyoming Senate seat, so he'll need to expand his support into areas where more Republican primary voters live. However, Christensen's Teton County is also the most affluent area of the state, so he might have access to some wealthy donors. Christensen currently faces state Rep. Tim Stubson and five Some Dude candidates (including 2010 Idaho gubernatorial candidate Rex Rammell). A few other Republicans have expressed interest in running, most notably Liz Cheney.
Mayoral:
● Baltimore, MD Mayor: Sometimes, bad name recognition is better than no name recognition. Back in 2009, Shelia Dixon resigned as mayor after she was convicted of stealing gift cards that were supposed to help needy families. However, Dixon is seeking her old job in this year's open seat race, and a Gonzales Research poll gives her the lead in the April Democratic primary. Gonzales has Dixon leading state Sen. Catherine Pugh 27-18, with City Councilor Carl Stokes at 14; Councilor Nick Mosby, attorney Elizabeth Embry, and businessman David Warnock are each taking single digits. It only takes a plurality to secure the Democratic nod, which is tantamount to election in deep blue Baltimore.
Of course we have a long time to go before the primary, and things will change once the candidates start taking to the airwaves. While Warnock is barely registering now, the nearly $1 million he loaned his campaign will help him fix that. Baltimore City candidates need to report their financial reports this week, so we'll soon have a better idea what resources each contender will have available for the primary.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.