Leading Off:
● TX-01: With Michele Bachmann gone from the House, we're pretty much left with Louie Gohmert as the House Republican who's most likely to say something that would be considered inflammatory if it weren't so incoherent. And while he's in a district in rural east Texas that's so red as to insulate him against Democrats no matter what he says, he may now be facing someone who's not just casting aspersions on his asparagus, but may actually be in a position to do some damage.
Rancher Simon Winston is running against Gohmert in the Republican primary, which, believe it or not, is barely a month away. Winston loaned his campaign $305,000, giving himself a hefty $302,000 to $178,000 cash on hand edge over Gohmert. (H/t to reporter Greg Giroux, who's better at unearthing these tidbits than anyone else.)
There's hardly any time for Gohmert to call around and raise more funds. Gohmert is also a complete pain in the ass for the House leadership, so they have little reason to help him in his hour of need. Can't Gohmert just pull out his own checkbook and make up the difference, though? Nope! As a prime example of the financial discipline that Republicans are known for, Gohmert has a net worth of negative $370,000.
Winston's angle doesn't seem to be running to Gohmert's left (which wouldn't work well in this district) or his right (not much room there), but simply from the less-crazy. He explains on his campaign website:
But like many of you, I'm frustrated that Congress has become such a circus, and that our representative Louie Gohmert is one of the main clowns…. I'm not going to promote myself while ignoring our district, nor will I embarrass the Republican Party or East Texas. I'll simply fight every day for the issues and values that are important to East Texas, and work hard to get things done.
It's hard to know if that message will resonate in a GOP primary, though Donald Trump's place at the top of the polls indicates that circuses don't exactly turn off Republican voters. Gohmert, of course, also has the advantage of name recognition that comes with incumbency, so Winston has to be facing a steep uphill fight. Still, Winston's big cash edge suddenly makes this a primary to watch.
4Q Fundraising:
● NC-Gov: Pat McCrory (R-inc): $2.6 million raised (July to December), $4.1 million cash-on-hand; Roy Cooper (D): $2.9 million (July to December), $4.9 million cash-on-hand
Senate:
● FL-Sen: Republican businessman Todd Wilcox has looked like the fourth man in a three-man primary and at first glance, his quarterly fundraising report does nothing to change that impression. Wilcox only hauled in a meager $324,000 over the last three months, and Politico says that most of that came from his wallet. However, Marc Caputo also notes that Wilcox has hired some prominent state Republicans to fill out his campaign staff, people his underfunded campaign shouldn't be able to afford.
According to Caputo, Wilcox is worth more than $50 million, which explains how he's able to staff up. That's not a Rick Scott-level of wealth (the governor was worth an estimated $218 million in June of 2010, around the time he was beginning his first campaign), but Wilcox has the resources to do some real self-funding if he chooses to. It's not clear why Wilcox has waited this long to dip into his piggy bank but based on his recent hiring spree, it sounds like he'll be putting his millions where his mouth is. Wilcox faces Reps. Ron DeSantis and David Jolly and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera in the primary though another rich guy, homebuilder Carlos Beruff, is reportedly eyeing the contest.
● PA-Sen: The GOP pollster Harper Polling gives us our first look at the three-way Democratic primary in months. They have 2010 nominee Joe Sestak leading Democratic establishment favorite Katie McGinty 33-28, while Braddock Mayor John Fetterman takes 11. The results are similar to an October PPP survey.
No one has spent much money on ads yet. Sestak and McGinty will have the cash to air commercials statewide, and we'll know in a few days if Fetterman has been raising the type of money he needs if he wants to boost his name recognition ahead of the April 26 primary. This release did not include any general election numbers testing the Democrats against Republican incumbent Pat Toomey.
House:
● FL-09: State Sen. Darren Soto seems to have the leg up on everyone else in the Democratic primary race to succeed Alan Grayson in the 9th District, as seen in a leaked poll and the hunt for endorsements. Soto has gotten various labor endorsements and the backing of Puerto Rico's Resident Commissioner Pedro Pierluisi (potentially important in the district with the biggest Puerto Rican population on the mainland), but hadn't gotten any support from his potential future Florida House colleagues. That changed on Wednesday, with an endorsement from Rep. Alcee Hastings, who represents parts of Broward and Palm Beach Counties further south.
● GA-03: All of the action to replace retiring GOP Rep. Lynn Westmoreland in this dark-red district will be in the Republican primary, and now state Sen. Mike Crane has an opponent. Drew Ferguson, the mayor of West Point, announced his bid on Monday.
On the one hand, West Point is very small (around 3,500 residents). The town is also located in a remote corner of the district near LaGrange, while most of the 3rd's residents live in Atlanta's western suburbs. On the other hand, Kia Motors recently built a large factory there, so it sounds like many more people work in West Point than live there, and it gives Ferguson a "creating jobs" angle to use.
● IN-03: State Sen. Jim Banks, who is the favorite of well-funded anti-establishment groups, is out with the first TV spot of the GOP primary. The ad is narrated by Banks' wife, who praises his military service. There is no word on the size of the buy in this safely red Fort Wayne-area seat.
● IN-09: Politico recently reported that Indiana Jobs Now is spending $36,000 on a spot in the GOP primary for businessman Trey Hollingsworth, and we now have a copy of the ad. The commercial is a bit more interesting than its cheap price tag suggests: It starts with an animation of faceless politicians marching towards Congress, with the narrator decrying how politicians are just being replaced by more politicians. The spot then promotes Hollingsworth as a conservative outsider, while calling Attorney General Greg Zoeller "just another career politician." Fellow primary contenders Erin Houchin and Brent Waltz, who both serve in the state Senate, go unmentioned.
● KY-01: On Tuesday, filing closed in Kentucky for the state's (sorry, commonwealth's) May 17 primary. The Senate race will attract the most attention, but there isn't much to watch in the primary. Republican Sen. Rand Paul and Democratic Lexington Mayor Jim Gray face only minimal intra-party opposition.
The only federal primary to watch is the open seat race for western Kentucky's 1st District. The Republican contest in this safely red seat looks like it will be a duel between Michael Pape, who served as district director for retiring Rep. Ed Whitfield, and ex-state Agricultural Commissioner James Comer, who lost the 2015 gubernatorial primary by just 84 votes.
Comer performed very well in the 1st District during last year's campaign (albeit against two opponents from Louisville), and he brings more name-recognition to the table than Pape. However, Pape has Whitfield's support. Hickman County Attorney Jason Batts is also in, but less than 1 percent of the 1st's denizens live in Hickman, so he'll need to work hard to get his name out. While Democrats briefly talked about putting this 66-32 Romney seat into play, only a pair of Some Dudes ended up filing.
● KY-04: A few months ago, FreedomWorks spent $20,000 on an ad for sophomore Rep. Thomas Massie, who hails from the tea party wing of the GOP. They won't need to return to the airwaves this cycle: Massie faces no primary opposition whatsoever, and he'll have no trouble winning re-election in this Romney 63-35 seat. The GOP establishment made some noises about challenging Massie in 2014, but they didn't do anything then either. While Massie continues to be a nuisance for the House leadership, no one seems to have the energy to try and replace him with someone more loyal.
● KY-05: Veteran GOP Rep. Hal Rogers is losing his post as House Appropriations Committee chair because of term limits and over the summer, it sounded like he was considering just calling it a career. However, Rogers has filed to seek a 19th term, and he only faces minimal primary opposition in this safely red seat.
● KY-06: Democrats want to give Rep. Andy Barr a run for his money in this central Kentucky seat, and the party establishment has lined up behind former Kentucky Council of Churches head Nancy Jo Kemper. Both Barr and Kemper face only minimal primary opposition; Kemper is going to have her work cut out for her in this 56-42 Romney seat, though this part of Kentucky is still friendly to Democrats down the ballot.
● LA-03: A number of Republicans are eyeing this open and safely red Acadiana seat, and we can add another name to the list. The Advertiser reports that Grover Rees, who served as George W. Bush's ambassador to East Timor, is considering, though he hasn't said anything publicly. Rees also used to be the chief justice of the High Court of American Samoa, but he's been active in state and national GOP politics for decades.
Energy businessman Gregory Ellison and Lafayette School Board member Erick Knesek are currently seeking this seat, while ex-state Rep. Brett Geymann and state Rep. Stuart Bishop have expressed interest. The big name to watch is Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, who performed well here in last year's gubernatorial race and is also mulling a bid.
● NH-01: EMILY's List is out with another endorsement (after backing up Denise Juneau in Montana's at-large seat on Tuesday); this time, their endorsement goes to one of their regulars, ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, whom they first backed in 2006. Shea-Porter is trying to win back the swing seat that she and Republican Rep. Frank Guinta have been trading back and forth repeatedly.
● NY-03: North Hempstead Supervisor Judi Bosworth has taken her name out of consideration for the Democratic primary to replace Rep. Steve Israel in this swingy suburban district on Long Island. The 68-year-old Bosworth would have loomed over the other Dems here, but while local Democratic leaders wanted her to run, she never expressed any real interest in getting in.
North Hempstead will still have a horse in the race, though, since former Supervisor Jon Kaiman is already in. "Supervisor" is equivalent to mayor, and North Hempstead is bigger than you're probably thinking. A "town" in New York is more equivalent to a mini-county, and about 20 percent of the 3rd's residents live in North Hempstead. (A previous Digest incorrectly said this number was 33 percent.) North Hempstead Councilor Anna Kaplan and Suffolk County Legislator Steve Stern are also running on the Dem side, and a number of other Democrats are mulling bids.
● PA-06: It wasn't that long ago that businessman Mike Parrish was considered a "good get" for the Dems in this light-red suburban seat. But Parrish's fundraising has been very weak, and many locals weren't very sold on the ex-Republican's bona fides. In December, it started to leak that the Democratic establishment was casting about for someone else. Perhaps not coincidentally, Lindy Li, who had raised money fairly well in next-door PA-07 but where local Dems seemed satisfied with Bill Golderer as their candidate, switched over to the 6th in early January.
And now it looks like Li has consolidated the local establishment's support for the Dem nod in the 6th. The 25-year-old financial manager has announced that she has the backing of several union locals (Machinists and Plumbers), several Asian-American House members from other states (Mike Honda, Grace Meng, and Ted Lieu), some county-level elected officials, and maybe most importantly, Rep. Bob Brady, who wields much of the behind-the-scenes power in Philadelphia-area Dem politics.
Legislative:
● TX State House, Special Elections: The Democrats scored a surprising win in a dark red Oklahoma Senate seat a few weeks ago but on Tuesday, the special election pendulum swung the other way. Republican John Lujan defeated Democrat Tomas Uresti 52-48 in Texas' 118th House seat, giving Team Red a pickup in a San Antonio district that Obama had carried 55-43.
This result wasn't a complete shock. In the November all-party primary, three Democrats took a combined 51 percent of the vote, while the two Republicans won 49 percent. However, Team Red's victory was the result of more than just the usual weak Democratic special election turnout. There was a very nasty Democratic race in November between Uresti, the brother of state Sen. Carlos Uresti, and Gabe Farias, whose father held this seat until he resigned last year.
According to the San Antonio Express-News' Gilbert Garcia, Uresti's camp thinks that the elder Farias left to give Gabe a better shot to succeed him, while the Farias people personally dislike Uresti. Farias filed to run for this seat again back in December, and he'll face off with Uresti again. A Uresti victory on Tuesday would have given him the benefits of incumbency when the March primary rolled around, so Farias' people had no incentive to help him prevail.
We've had a number of legislative special elections this cycle, and anyone looking at them for clues about the 2016 national mood should be disappointed. In the last few months, Democrats scored two wins in very red Oklahoma seats, picked up a red Georgia House district, took a swingy Pennsylvania House district, and won control of a swingy Missouri House district. However, Republicans took a very blue Georgia Senate seat, won a conservative but ancestrally blue Pennsylvania Senate seat, picked up two Maine seats, and flipped a swingy Washington House seat.
It's always tempting to look at your party's special election wins and conclude something big is happening, and dismiss the losses as flukes. But legislative special elections have always been very imperfect barometers of the national mood. Even much more high-profile congressional special elections can only tell you so much: In 2010, Democrats were relieved when they held the conservative Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District, but they still lost the House in a landslide a few months later.
Special elections are still worth keeping an eye on, but a win in a dark red Oklahoma Senate seat doesn't mean Democrats will keep the White House anymore than Team Red's Texas victory means the GOP is in for a great November.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
