Leading Off:
● WI-Sen: Since 1956—when Joseph McCarthy was still in office—only one Republican has won a Senate race in Wisconsin in a presidential election year. Ron Johnson seems unlikely to become the second. The ultra-conservative, ultra-wealthy businessman had the good fortune to first run in the GOP wave election of 2010, but unlike similarly situated fellow Republicans in other swing states, he's never attempted to moderate his image. In fact, he's only continued to double down on his extremist views, and it's paid off for him in the worst way.
A new poll from Marquette, which has an excellent track record surveying the Badger State, finds Johnson trailing former Sen. Russ Feingold, the Democrat he beat more than five years ago, by a punishing 50-37 margin. That's very similar to Marquette's prior poll from November, where Feingold led 49-38; indeed, the school has regularly seen Johnson in dire shape.
But it's not just Marquette. PPP has found Feingold well ahead, too, and even Republican pollsters have had Johnson trailing: One conservative group put out a poll that had Feingold on top by 8 points and tried to spin it as good news—because his lead was "only" in single digits!
When we first launched our Senate race ratings for this election cycle, we knew Johnson faced a difficult re-election campaign, but we were reluctant to label this race anything other than a tossup simply because there was too little data and too much uncertainty. Things have changed, and the picture is much clearer now: Johnson is in major trouble. As a result, we're moving this race to Lean Democratic, which sets Johnson apart as the most vulnerable Senate incumbent in the nation.
4Q Fundraising:
● CO-Sen: Tim Neville (R): $120,000 raised, $50,000 cash-on-hand
● NC-Sen: Deborah Ross (D): $452,000 cash-on-hand
Senate:
● LA-Sen: Retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness had been considering a second bid for Senate, and on Thursday, he officially joined the race for retiring Sen. David Vitter's seat. Maness previously ran in 2014, when he positioned himself as the tea party alternative to GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy but finished a distant third in the all-party "jungle" primary with just 14 percent. (Cassidy went on to defeat Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu in a runoff.)
The one thing Maness has going for him this time around is that there isn't a single consensus establishment candidate, which in theory might give a true believer outsider to have a shot. But he'll face three heavyweight fellow Republicans in Rep. Charles Boustany, Rep. John Fleming, and state Treasurer John Kennedy, so it won't be easy for him to gain traction. No Democrats have yet announced.
● NH-Sen: In all the endless polling of New Hampshire's presidential primary, someone finally thought to toss in some general election numbers for the state's highly competitive Senate race. Marist finds GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte leading Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan 45-40, which is a touch wider than their previous poll from all the way back in September that had Ayotte up 48-45. Most polls have shown a close contest, though Ayotte's usually been in front.
Gubernatorial:
● MT-Gov: Public Service Commissioner Brad Johnson has been running for the GOP nod for months with little fanfare and this week, he dropped out of the race. Wealthy businessman Greg Gianforte is the only notable Republican challenging Democratic incumbent Steve Bullock.
House:
● AL-02: Following a report in the National Journal that breathed some life into the notion that tea partier Becky Gerritson could cause trouble for Rep. Martha Roby in March's GOP primary, Roby's responded with an internal poll from Meeting Street Research saying she has a massive 72-16 lead.
Gerritson answered back with the shabbiest sort of response: Her campaign claims that their private polling shows a single-digit race … but they're refusing to make any of it public. The excuse they offered was amusing, at least: They claimed they'd be "giving up a competitive advantage" (in the words of reporter Howard Koplowitz) if they were to release any further details from their polling. That's such a load of b.s., especially when your opponent has you down 56 points.
Roby's also pressing her nearly million-dollar financial advantage on the airwaves. In a new spot, a narrator talks about how Roby is suuuper pro-gun and suuuper anti-abortion—exactly the kind of message you'd expect in a very conservative district such as this one. Gerritson, meanwhile, has basically no cash in the bank, so without outside help, she doesn't have much of a way of getting her name out there.
● GA-03: On Wednesday, rich guy Jim Pace entered the race for this safely red exurban Atlanta seat. Pace hails from the religio-business segment of the GOP: Pace is close to Chick-fil-A head Dan Cathy, and he has a charity called "Cows for Christ" that sends milk-producing cattle to Africa. Pace will face state Sen. Mike Crane and West Point Mayor Drew Ferguson in the May primary.
● IA-01: Freshman Republican Rep. Rod Blum has behaved like a man out of time from the moment he took office. Despite representing a district that Barack Obama carried with 56 percent of the vote, he's consistently voted the hard-right party line and has been an indifferent fundraiser. He also opposed John Boehner for speaker, which put him in the NRCC's doghouse: The committee still hasn't added Blum to their "Patriot Program" for vulnerable incumbents.
But with Boehner gone, the ice may be thawing, as new House Speaker Paul Ryan will host a fundraiser for Blum in D.C. in February. Still, even if Blum is brought back into the fold, the obstacles to his re-election remain considerable. Blum will likely face Cedar Rapids Councilwoman Monica Vernon or former state Rep. Pat Murphy, who are the two leading contenders for the Democratic nomination.
● MD-04: The April primary for this safely blue suburban Washington seat is still a ways away, but Glenn Ivey, a former state's attorney for Prince George's County, is out with a poll arguing he has a good chance to come out on top. The survey, from Lester & Associates, gives ex-Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown a 34-30 edge against Ivey, while Dels. Joseline Peña-Melnyk and Dereck Davis take 9 and 4 respectively. It appears that ex-Prince George's County Councilor Ingrid Turner was not tested.
These results are very similar to a July Ivey poll that gave Brown a 33-27 lead. It's a bit weird that Ivey is continuing to release numbers showing him trailing, though the memo argues that Ivey has more positive name recognition than anyone else. Plenty of influential Democrats are still angry with Brown for losing the 2014 gubernatorial race to Republican Larry Hogan, and it's possible that Ivey is trying to convince them that they shouldn't bother with Peña-Melnyk or Davis if they want to stop Brown. (The memo noticeably calls them "non-factors.")
The ad war hasn't begun yet, and while Brown has plenty of name recognition from his gubernatorial bid, he's struggled to raise the type of money he needs to air ads in the Washington media market. Ivey had the most cash available at the end of September, though Peña-Melnyk has more money than either Brown or Davis.
● MD-08: Just days after expressing interest in this safely blue seat, wealthy liquor store chain owner David Trone announced that he would join the Democratic primary. Trone quickly made it clear that he would "virtually self-finance" his bid and immediately booked $900,000 worth of airtime for his fledgling campaign—because when you play the Game of Trones, you win or you die.
Trone is a prominent Democratic donor and he even hosted President Obama at his home for a fundraiser, so he may have some useful connections that will help him jump-start his campaign. However, Trone has also given tens of thousands to Republican candidates, something that at least some of his primary rivals will undoubtedly use against him. (One who probably won't: former hotel executive Kathleen Mathews, who once donated to Republican Sen. Roy Blunt.)
Local observers say that, at least until Trone entered the contest, Mathews and state Sen. Jamie Raskin were the frontrunners in this suburban Washington district. Matthews has been raising plenty of money, though a business-oriented candidate like Trone is more likely to take votes from her than from Raskin, who has been running as an outspoken progressive. Dels. Kumar Barve and Ana Sol-Gutierrez and Obama administration alums Will Jawando and Joel Rubin are also in the mix in the April primary.
● MI-10: Offering a great lesson as to why you should seldom take politicians at their word, Republican state Sen. Jack Brandenburg has finally announced that he won't seek this open seat. Amusingly, back in March, Brandenburg said he was "90 percent there" when it came to running, but he now says that he decided not to go for it for a "couple of specific reasons that I would choose to remain private."
Three notable Republicans are running to succeed Candice Miller in this Romney 55-44 seat. Though he's a former state senator, Alan Sanborn has raised very little money (it probably doesn't help that he left office more than five years ago). Wealthy businessman Paul Mitchell, by contrast, has plenty of scratch, but he only moved to this suburban Detroit seat in July from rural Michigan. Mitchell ran for the 4th District last cycle and lost the GOP primary 52-36, and that was before he had the carpetbagger label affixed.
State Sen. Phil Pavlov looks like the best positioned member of this trio. Pavlov hasn't raised an incredible amount of cash but he has a lot more than Sanborn, and he currently represents about a third of this seat in the legislature. The filing deadline isn't until April, though, so there's still time for someone else to enter the race and shake things up. Democrats haven't made any noises about putting this district into play.
● MN-03: While Republican Erik Paulsen represents a competitive suburban Twin Cities seat, Democrats have always struggled to find someone credible to challenge him. Former State Department public diplomacy officer Jon Tollefson kicked off a bid on Thursday and he's been talking to the DCCC, so Team Blue at least has a non-Some Dude candidate for once. Tollefson ran for the state House last cycle but took third in a primary. Paulsen has plenty of money and Tollefson is going to need a lot to go right if he's going to dislodge him, but at least Democrats are prepared if lightning strikes.
● NY-24: Democrat Colleen Deacon, who recently earned the backing of Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner, just notched another big endorsement, this one from EMILY's List. Deacon also has the support of Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (whom she used to work for) and Chuck Schumer in her quest for the right to take on freshman GOP Rep. John Katko. Also running for the Democratic nod in this blue-tilting but volatile district are Attorney Steve Williams and college professor Eric Kingson.
● PA-09: Months ago, it looked like powerful GOP Rep. Bill Shuster was in for a competitive primary, but this one has fallen off the map. 2014 candidate Art Halvorson is challenging Shuster again in the April primary, but he ran a very unimpressive race last time, and it looks like tea party types aren't particularly unhappy with the incumbent. Rep. Mark Meadows, who led last year's charge to oust John Boehner, is backing Shuster, which is a good signal to far-right groups that they shouldn't bother here.
● TN-09: State Senate Minority Leader Lee Harris had considered challenging Rep. Steve Cohen for renomination in this safely blue seat, but he ruled out a bid on Thursday. As a white man representing a predominantly black district, Cohen has never been completely safe in the primary, but none of his other prospective opponents look as intimidating as Harris would have been.
Shelby County Commissioner Justin Ford has suggested he might run, but he hasn't made any announcements. Ford is a member of the once-powerful Memphis political family that included former Rep. Harold Ford, but his own career hasn't fared very well. Ford has frequently sided with GOP members on the county commission, and Democrats even sued him over his performance as its chair. He briefly ran for mayor of Memphis last year but dropped down to run for clerk of court, only to finish in fifth place. Ford may have the name, but he doesn't seem to have the mojo.
Meanwhile, attorney Ricky Wilkins, who lost to Cohen 66-33 last cycle, also expressed interest in running again back in October, but we haven't heard anything from him since. The filing deadline for the August primary is in April.
● WA-07: While former U.S. Attorney Jenny Durkan was mentioned as a possible candidate for this dark blue seat in Seattle, she never actually expressed any interest in running. In any case, Durkan took her name out of the running this week.
Grab Bag:
● Deaths: Buddy Cianci, a legendary figure in Rhode Island politics who was Providence's longest-serving mayor despite twice resigning due to felony convictions, died on Thursday at the age of 74. After first getting elected as a Republican in 1975, Cianci became an independent in 1982, but his initial run in office ended two years later after he plead to charges that he had kidnapped and assaulted a man he accused of having an affair with his wife, though he avoided jail time.
He became a radio host before reclaiming the mayoralty in 1991, only to be forced out again in 2002 after a jury convicted him of running a corrupt criminal enterprise out of City Hall. After serving a five-year sentence on those charges, Cianci returned to radio before waging a final, unsuccessful comeback bid in 2014.
This summary, however, can't begin to convey the impact Cianci, invariably described as "colorful" and dubbed the "Prince of Providence," had on Rhode Island's political life—you might think of him as a New England version of Edwin Edwards. For a better feel, read Mark Patinkin's remembrance of Cianci as a "saint, sinner, dictator, magician," and if you want to really get to know the man, Mark Stanton's biography is great, too.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and Stephen Wolf.
