Leading Off:
● SCOTUS: Here's an irony: Republicans dearly loved Nino Scalia's strict construction of the Constitution, but now that he's gone, they've creatively re-interpreted Article II, section 1 to conclude that "four" actually means "three" and therefore the final year of Barack Obama's term doesn't count. But while Mitch McConnell can refuse to allow a vote on a replacement for Scalia for as long as the GOP holds a majority in the Senate, he can't protect his fellow party members who are up for re-election this year from the political assault that's about to engulf them if they embrace their leader's unprecedented obstructionism.
Remarkably, every single vulnerable GOP senator who's spoken out so far has lashed him or herself to the mast of McConnell's creaking ship, even as it charts treacherous waters. The same goes for Republican Senate hopefuls challenging Democratic incumbents or running in open-seat races. They're all saying the same thing: They don't think Obama should get to name a successor to Scalia.
Wisconsin's Ron Johnson, one of the dimmest senators in the GOP caucus, led the way on Sunday, declaring that "the American people should decide the future direction of the Supreme Court by their votes for president and the majority party in the U.S. Senate." Johnson has never seemed to grasp that he represents a blue-tilting swing state, and he often sounds more like a senator from the Deep South. His decision to embrace maximum recalcitrance is therefore unsurprising, and it only gives his Democratic challenger, former Sen. Russ Feingold, another juicy line of attack.
New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, on the other hand, is not someone you'd expect to blindly follow McConnell and Johnson, since she's long tried to cultivate a more moderate image. But while most of her efforts in service of this goal have been decidedly small beer, she's nevertheless infuriated conservatives, for whom a single apostasy is rarely forgivable. If she's still concerned about a threatened primary challenge on her right, perhaps that's why she's now saying that "the Senate should not move forward with the confirmation process until the American people have spoken by electing a new president."
That stance, however, can only hurt her in the general election, when she'll face live fire from her Democratic opponent. Gov. Maggie Hassan actually beat Ayotte to the punch with a statement Sunday afternoon saying that it would be "completely unacceptable, and a clear sign of Washington's dysfunction" if the Senate left Scalia's seat vacant for an entire year. That's a much more potent message than Ayotte's process-based argle-bargle, and it's ready-made for attack ads.
On Monday, just about every other GOP senator and Senate candidate chimed in, and they're all exposing themselves to the same charge that they're fomenting DC gridlock. The list includes swing state targets Rob Portman (Ohio) and Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania); open seat hopefuls like Reps. David Jolly and Ron DeSantis in Florida; and even John McCain, who could go from narrowly favored to decidedly vulnerable with the wrong step.
The Republicans' Senate majority was already vulnerable this year; now, the party's open embrace of the very dysfunction voters despise them for only risks putting the GOP in further jeopardy.
Senate:
● NH-Sen: The Koch Brothers-backed Americans For Prosperity has gotten involved in most high-profile races in recent cycles, but they're adamantly refusing to help Sen. Kelly Ayotte. The group's vice president of state operations told BuzzFeed that Ayotte's support for the Export-Import Bank and for the Obama administration's clean power regulations is unacceptable, and she singled the senator out as the one Republican in a competitive contest that they couldn't get behind. There's no doubt that other conservative groups like American Crossroads will support Ayotte, but Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan won't complain if a few million less is spent attacking her this year.
House:
● CA-36: State Sen. Jeff Stone entered the race against Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz last month (sort of), but he may need to put a little work into advancing past the June top-two primary. We haven't heard much about veteran Dwight Kealy, but thanks to a $250,000 loan, he had a non-trivial $295,000 in the bank at the end of December. Obama only won this Inland Empire district 51-48, but Ruiz pulled off a decisive win during the 2014 GOP wave. Ruiz hasn't gotten complacent: He raised $330,000 during the last quarter, and had $1.5 million to spend.
● CA-52: Republicans were not at all impressed by retired Marine Jacquie Atkinson's fundraising against Rep. Scott Peters, and it looks like they've found a much better candidate. Karl Rove protégé Denise Gitsham entered the race for this swingy San Diego-area seat in November, and she raised a decent $197,000 from donors. Thanks to some self-funding, Gitsham had $231,000 to spend at the end of the year. We'll need a full quarter to see if Gitsham is able to raise the type of dough she'll need to fight a formidable incumbent like Peters in a presidential year. Peters hauled in $403,000 for the quarter and had almost $1.4 million on hand at the end of December. Atkinson herself only had $43,000 in the bank.
● CO-06: National Democrats were enthusiastic when state Sen. Morgan Carroll entered the race against Republican Rep. Mike Coffman, and Carroll has proven to be a good fundraiser. During the last quarter of 2015, Coffman only outraised Carroll $279,000 to $277,000, though thanks to his considerable head start, he leads her $1.07 million to $452,000 in cash-on-hand. Obama carried this suburban Denver seat 52-47, and this should remain a fiercely contested race until November.
It doesn't look like Carroll will face a primary here. Physician Perry Haney filed paperwork with the FEC over the summer and threw $1 million of his own money into his campaign. However, Haney promised an announcement by Sept. 15 but completely ignored his self-imposed deadline, and he has taken back the $1 million. As of the end of the year, Haney had less than $500.00 in his campaign account, though he hasn't filed termination papers with the FEC yet. The Colorado candidate filing deadline is April 4.
● FL-05, 10: Democratic Rep. Corrine Brown has finally woken up to the fact that she needs to raise money if she wants to stay in Congress. Brown's $119,000 haul during the last quarter wasn't great, but it's an improvement over the $60,000 she brought in over the summer. However, Brown managed to blow through most of it, and she had just $76,000 in the bank at the end of the year.
Brown hasn't decided if she'll run in the 5th, which stresses from her base in Jacksonville to Tallahassee, or the Orlando-area 10th. Both seats are safely blue, but Brown will face a primary wherever she campaigns. Ex-state Sen. Al Lawson announced back in he would run in the 5th in mid-December, but he raised no money during the final two weeks of the year, so he and Brown start in roughly the same place.
Things are much different in the 10th. The national Democratic establishment has consolidated behind 2012 nominee Val Demings, and she had $267,000 on hand. State Sen. Geraldine Thompson had only $86,000 in the bank, but wealthy ex-state party head Bob Poe entered the race in January.
● FL-09: At the end of December, Susannah Randolph, a former aide to departing Rep. Alan Grayson, led Democratic primary rival state Sen. Darren Soto $224,000 to $214,000 in cash-on-hand, though Soto outraised her. Dena Minning, a biotech consultant who is also departing Rep. Alan Grayson's girlfriend, had a smaller $129,000 on hand. Ex-state Rep. and current Gravis Marketing employee Ricardo Rangel is barely registering with $6,000 on hand. A considerable number of voters are Puerto Rican in this Orlando-area seat, which could give Soto the edge in the August primary. Obama won 56-43 here and Republican Wanda Rentas, a Kissimmee city commissioner, only had $6,000 on hand.
● FL-13: Ex-Gov. Charlie Crist entered the race for this open 55-44 Obama seat, and he's off to a strong fundraising start. Crist, who was Team Blue's gubernatorial nominee last year, raised $494,000 during his first quarter in the race, and he had $420,000 on hand at the end of the year.
Crist's Democratic primary foe, former Obama administration official Eric Lynn, actually had a larger $549,000 in the bank. Lynn did have a big head start on Crist though. Before the Florida Supreme Court ordered this district to be redrawn in July, Lynn was preparing to face Rep. David Jolly in a seat that Obama had only narrowly carried. Lynn raised $402,000 from April to June, but his fundraising plunged after this seat became much bluer and Crist made it clear he wanted to run here. (Jolly ended up bailing and running for the Senate.)
Lynn brought in just $151,000 from July to September, and he took in only $100,000 during the final three months of 2015. Lynn has some prominent allies, including St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman, and he still has enough cash to be taken seriously. However, it looks like Crist will be able to pull ahead of him in the money race before too long.
This seat is one of Team Blue's best pickup opportunities anywhere, but there is one Republican who could still make things interesting. Ex-St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker has been flirting with a bid for a while, and he expressed interest as recently as last month. The filing deadline is June 24.
● KY-01: After his excruciatingly narrow loss in last year's GOP gubernatorial primary, ex-state Agriculture Commissioner James Comer is hoping for a comeback by winning this safely red western Kentucky seat. However, Comer needs to get past Michael Pape, a longtime aide to retiring Rep. Ed Whitfield, and Pape can put up a fight in the May primary.
As of the end of December, Pape had a small $215,000 to $206,000 cash-on-hand lead over Comer. Whitfield is supporting Pape, which may be helping him raise money. A third candidate, Hickman County Attorney Jason Batts, is in, but he has a lot of work to do if he wants to win. Less than 1 percent of the 1st's residents live in Hickman and with only $93,000 in the bank, it doesn't look like Batts will be able to get his name out.
● LA-04: On Monday, Shreveport City Councilor Oliver Jenkins, a Republican, joined the race for this open seat. Jenkins runs an oil and gas company, so he may have some personal wealth to spend. Two other notable Republicans are also seeking this 59-40 Romney seat: cardiologist Trey Baucum and state Rep. Mike Johnson. Attorney Rick John has been running since last month: It's unclear if he'll have the resources he'll need to win, though the fact that he doesn't have a working website is not encouraging. Ex-state Sen. Elbert Guillory, who took a Some Dude-esque 8 percent in last year's lieutenant governor's race, is also in.
● MI-07, 08: Romney carried each of these seats by a 51-48 margin, but national Democrats think that the 7th is the better target. The DCCC recently named state Rep. Gretchen Driskell to their "Red to Blue" program, which promises to help Democratic candidates the committee regards as its strongest recruits in the seats it considers its top priorities. However, actress and 8th District candidate Melissa Gilbert was placed on the lower-tier "Emerging Races" list.
A quick look at the fourth-quarter reports gives us an idea why the DCCC feels better about Driskell. Driskell outraised Republican Rep. Tim Walberg $249,000 to $204,000; Walberg has a $1.06 million to $604,000 cash-on-hand lead, which is far from overwhelming. By contrast, 8th District incumbent Mike Bishop outraised Gilbert $249,000 to $203,000. Bishop's $586,000 to $254,000 cash-on-hand edge is actually smaller than Walberg's, but Gilbert burned through about two-thirds of the money she brought in during the last quarter.
● NC-03: What happens when a stoppable force meets a movable object? We're going to find out in the March 15 primary for this safely red coastal seat. Rep. Walter Jones beat former Bush administration official Taylor Griffin 51-45 in 2014, and Griffin is back for a rematch. The GOP establishment hates Jones, who proudly describes himself as "a thorn in people's ass," so it's no surprise that he hauled in just $65,000 during the fourth quarter.
But despite his DC connections, Griffin has never been a very good fundraiser. While Griffin took in $105,000, Jones still leads him $165,000 to $152,000 in cash-on-hand. A third candidate, retired Marine Phil Law, only has $38,000 to spend, but he could take enough support from Griffin to secure Jones renomination. No major outside groups have gotten involved yet.
● NV-04: A little while back, former Assemblywoman Lucy Flores, who is running for Congress, endorsed Bernie Sanders, and now Sanders has returned the favor. He's not formally endorsing Flores, but he is featuring her as the narrator of a new TV ad in which she discusses her difficult upbringing and explains that's why she's backing Sanders. Flores, of course, is the lucky beneficiary here because she happens to be seeking office in Nevada, the site of the next caucuses in the Democratic presidential primary. And as a Latina, she can also help Sanders reach out to constituencies that have mostly favored Hillary Clinton.
But one of Flores' primary rivals, state Sen. Ruben Kihuen, has complained that the spot constitutes either an in-kind donation from Sanders to Flores, or represents improper coordination between the two campaigns. However, few elections are decided by FEC complaints, and the caucuses are just a week away, so this will all likely be forgotten by the time Nevada's June 14 congressional primaries roll around.
● NY-03, NY State Senate: Well, I guess state Sen. Jack Martins and Assemblyman Chad Lupinacci are both officially seeking the GOP nod for this open swing seat. Martins never appears to have made an announcement, but he has a "Jack Martins for Congress" website, Facebook page, and Twitter account active. Lupinacci also has a website where he refers to himself as a candidate for Congress, even though the last thing he said was that he was "exploring" a bid.
State Republicans reportedly tried to convince Martins to stay and defend his 54-45 Obama seat, but that ship seems to have sailed. Newsday reports that Nassau County Legislator Laura Schaefer is considering running for Team Red. On the Democratic side, wealthy businessman Adam Haber, who lost to Martins 55-42 in 2014, is already in. This seat could help decide control of the chamber, and we should expect a competitive race.
● NY-18: Team Red came close to taking this seat during the 2014 GOP wave, but it looks like Democratic Rep. Sean Maloney is getting a free pass this time. While local Republicans have consolidated behind ex-Orange County Legislator Dan Castricone, Castricone raised only $10,000 from the time he filed to run here in October to the end of the year. Obama only carried this seat 51-47, but Maloney proved last cycle that he's no pushover. The filing deadline is April 14.
● NY-21: Democrats lost this 52-46 Obama seat last cycle, and it doesn't look like this ancestrally Republican seat will be flipping back this year. Freshman Elise Stefanik raised a decent $221,000 in the fourth quarter, which is a whole lot more than retired Col. Mike Derrick's $63,000; as of Dec. 31, Stefanik holds a $928,000 to $139,000 cash-on-hand lead. Ominously, the DCCC didn't include this seat in either their "Red to Blue" or "Emerging Races" lists.
● NY-23: Republican Rep. Tom Reed came close to losing to an untouted foe in 2012, but he easily won during 2014's GOP wave. Democrats landed former National Security Council member John Plumb for this 50-48 Romney seat, but while he brought in a respectable $225,000 over the summer, he raised a much more-modest $151,000 during the fourth quarter. Reed somehow burned through $226,000 of the $370,000 he raised during this time, but he has a $879,000 to $294,000 cash-on-hand edge as of Dec. 31. The DCCC recently placed Plumb on their "Emerging Races" list, which indicates that, while they don't think this is a top-tier race, Plumb has some potential.
● NY-24: Obama carried this Syracuse-area seat 57-41, but freshman Republican Rep. John Katko isn't going down without a fight. Katko raised $281,000 during the last quarter, and he had $886,000 on hand. By contrast, none of his three Democratic rivals are exactly lighting the world on fire with their fundraising. Colleen Deacon, who used to run Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's local office, brought in the most money, but her $132,000 haul was far from incredible. Deacon has the backing of both Gillibrand and incoming Democratic Senate Leader Chuck Schumer.
Attorney Steve Williams, who has the support of ex-DCCC chair Steve Israel, brought in just $100,000 but thanks to some self-funding, he lead Deacon $117,000 to $84,000 in cash-on-hand in December. Local professor Eric Kingson raised the least amount of money, and he had $74,000 in the bank. The DCCC recently put this seat on their top-tier "Red to Blue" list, but they didn't single out any of the three candidates for attention. The Democratic primary is in June.
● OH-14: Sucky fundraisers gonna stay sucky fundraisers. Tea partier Matt Lynch, a former state representative, raised just $42,000 for his primary campaign against Rep. David Joyce, and he trails $781,000 to $21,000 in cash-on-hand. The GOP primary is March 15 and no major outside groups have endorsed Lynch. Romney only narrowly carried this seat, but neither Democrat looks anywhere capable of winning here. Michael Wager lost to Joyce 63-33 in 2014, while retired Ashtabula County Judge Alfred Mackey was actually arrested last month.
● PA-02: Stories about franking rarely get us excited, but here's a new one: Indicted Democratic Rep. Chaka Fattah has been spending taxpayer dollars not only on mailings to constituents (which is what franking usually involves), but also on radio ads promoting applications to military academies and a congressional art contest (!). Fattah, whose campaign fundraising has completely dried up thanks to his criminal woes, is refusing to say how much $1.3 million House office budget is going toward this effort, but the Philadelphia Inquirer says that one radio spot cost over $20,000.
There are actually rules that forbid franking 90 days ahead of an election; in fact, they went into effect weeks ago, since the Democratic primary—which could terminate Fattah's career—is on April 26. But Fattah found a loophole that specifically allows advertising about the art contest and military academy applications. Amazing, huh? Lord knows America needs to hear about that art contest.
Of course, Fattah's hoping that if voters merely hear his name on the radio a little bit more, they'll remember to pull the lever for him come Election Day. But Fattah's already grim outlook has grown even dimmer. In a separate report, the Inquirer digs up evidence that Fattah has failed to properly record his campaign's considerable debts (many of which are to lawyers) on his fundraising reports. That means the penniless Fattah may actually owe even more than we realize. It's not too late to consider a second career and make a submission in that art contest.
● TN-08: Six Republicans are already running for this open 66-33 Romney seat, and they may have some company soon. State Rep. Andy Holt recently announced that he is considering getting in. Holt made national news a little while ago during the Bundy militia standoff in Oregon when he asked them on Twitter, "Where can I send support for your effort?," before he went on to scold liberals on the Constitution. It only takes a simple plurality to win a primary in Tennessee so if Holt gets in, he could very well win.
● TX-19: The crowded March 1 primary for this safely red seat is almost here, and the Texas Tribune's Abby Livingston gives us a good lay of the land. Local observers say that three candidates are fighting for the two spots in the May runoff: Jodey Arrington, a former George W. Bush aide and an ex-Texas Tech vice chancellor; Lubbock Mayor Glen Robertson; and retired Air Force Colonel Michael Bob Starr. Bank president Greg Garrett and physician Donald May are doing some self-funding and could be in the mix as well.
Geography is likely to play a big role here. About one-third of the district lives in Lubbock, which could give Robertson a big edge. However, Arrington also hails from the city, and if the two men split the Lubbock vote enough, it could allow the Abilene-based Starr to advance. Arrington has been making the most of his political connections and he had more money than any of his opponents at the end of 2015. However, Arrington's last race didn't go well: Arrington lost a 2014 special election for the state Senate to another Republican 54-30.
Robertson has been largely self-funding his bid, and he spent a considerable amount of money on ads in December. Robertson trailed Arrington $189,000 to $112,000 in cash-on-hand at the end of the year, but Robertson may be able to replenish his warchest more easily than Arrington. Starr has mostly been raising cash from donors, and he had $129,000 in the bank, while May and Garrett had $102,000 and $67,000 on hand respectively.
● WI-08: What's that, Lassie? Timmy fell down a well? Ok, run for Congress to get him out! Over the weekend, GOP state Sen. Frank Lasee became the first major candidate to enter the race for this open 51-48 Romney seat. Lasee (whose name disappointingly is actually pronounced lah-SAY') is unlikely to have the primary to himself. State Reps. John Nygren, David Steffen, and Andre Jacque; ex-state Rep. Chad Weininger; and former Scott Walker foreign policy advisor Mike Gallagher have all talked about running. Democrats are hoping that Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson will get in.
Legislative:
● Special Elections: Sure, there's no primary or caucus on Tuesday, but we still have one race to look forward to. Via Johnny Longtorso:
Alabama HD-05: This is an open Republican seat in Limestone County, on the border with Tennessee. The Democratic nominee is Henry White, who won a previous version of this seat in 2006, but was unseated 57-35 in 2010. White tried to return to the House in 2014, but he lost 56-44. The Republican nominee is Danny Crawford, a former member of the Athens City Council. This seat voted gave about 70 percent of the vote to Mitt Romney.
Grab Bag:
● Redistricting: One of the many, many areas of law that would be affected by a shift in the Supreme Court's composition is redistricting, where, as Stephen Wolf explains, a deadlocked court would benefit Democrats in a number of pending cases. And looking toward the future, we could see a sea change in how the high court treats partisan gerrymandering: The four current liberal justices would all like to police the practice, and if a fifth joins their ranks, that could dramatically alter how election districts are drawn nationwide. Click through for the full overview.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
