Leading Off:
● OH-Sen: GOP Sen. Rob Portman may have a ton of money, he may be a skilled campaigner, and he may possess that not-totally-scary image (he supports gay marriage!) that Republicans often find elusive, but according to the polls, he still has a competitive race on his hands. Former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland leads Portman by a 44-42 margin in Quinnipiac's latest survey, little changed from his 46-43 edge back in September. (Cincinnati City Councilor P.G. Sittenfeld, who trails Strickland badly for the Democratic nomination, gets crushed, 48-29.)
Quinnipiac has now found Strickland ahead in all five of its polls of the race, going back nearly a year, but they aren't the only ones to see a real battle here. A school we've never heard of before, Baldwin Wallace University, puts Portman ahead 44-40, which also indicates this is a competitive contest. Sittenfeld again loses badly, though, by a 51-26 margin. Neither outfit tested the Democratic primary, but with Sittenfeld still so little-known just three weeks ahead of the election, the chances that he'll pull off an upset win look remote.
Senate:
● AL-Sen: While Sen. Richard Shelby has been spending a fortune on positive ads ahead of the March 1 GOP primary, he's running a commercial against intra-party opponent Jonathan McConnell for the first time. The narrator portrays McConnell as a sketchy character, accusing him of cheating in college elections and trying to bribe a Senate opponent, and the commercial ads that McConnell is "facing a possible $10,000 fine for election violations."
This Senate race hasn't looked particularly competitive. Shelby released a poll giving himself a 75-9 edge a few weeks ago, and McConnell's own poll gave the senator a hefty 55-29 lead. Conservative outside groups haven't aired any ads to help McConnell, while Shelby's allies have gotten involved. It's unclear why Shelby is bothering to go negative so close to Election Day in a race that seems to be in the bag for him.
Shelby may just feel like being cautious: He has millions left in the bank, so why not use a few bucks to hit McConnell? However, while there's no doubt that Shelby will take the most votes on Tuesday, he needs to win a majority to avert a runoff, and it's possible that Shelby actually is flirting dangerously close to the 50 percent mark in his own polls. The presidential primary will also be on March 1, and Shelby may also fear that the people who show up for Donald Trump and Ted Cruz will also decide to vote out their five-term senator.
If Shelby does have problems next week, it won't be because McConnell is a strong candidate. While McConnell has more money than the Some Dudes Shelby usually gets to face, he's not exactly rolling in dough: As of Feb. 10, McConnell had only spent $674,000 during the entire campaign, and he had less than $100,000 left. But McConnell has a new spot where he accuses Shelby of using his time in office to get rich. The ad also briefly touts McConnell's military history.
● IL-Sen: For the second time this campaign season, Republican Sen. Mark Kirk has stooped to the most revolting sort of xenophobic hate-mongering to attack his likely Democratic opponent, Rep. Tammy Duckworth. In a new ad that's reportedly backed by an $800,000 statewide buy, Kirk once again tries to turn Americans against desperate refugees flowing out of Syria by raising hysteria over ISIS:
Narrator: ISIS used fake Syrian passports to commit the horrific Paris attacks. Now we know they're printing thousands more. Still, Tammy Duckworth supports bringing 200,000 Syrian refugees to America.
Duckworth: I signed on for 200,000 refugees.
Narrator: Even though the FBI says there's no way to guarantee they aren't terrorists. Mark Kirk is leading the fight to stop refugees until it can be done safely. Who do you trust to protect your family? Mark Kirk.
Kirk ran a similar ad in December that, like this one, was filled with all kinds of misleading b.s. (for instance, all of the known Paris attackers were European citizens). But in a frantic effort to preserve his re-election chances, Kirk wants to demonstrate his supposed toughness by punishing Syrian refugees and showing that America is only too happy to turn its back on the huddled masses. It's disgusting.
● LA-Sen: Last month, energy businessman Josh Pellerin, a Democrat, said he was "99.9 percent confident" he'd run, and it seems like he's up to 99.95. Pellerin hasn't announced he's in quite yet, but he says he's setting up a campaign committee and plans to qualify next year. Pellerin characterizes himself as "pro-life, pro-gun," though he said he believes in the Democratic Party on "health care, job creation and taking care of veterans." Attorney Caroline Fayard is also running in the November jungle primary for Team Blue, while several Republicans are campaigning here.
● MD-Sen: So this is starting to get even more interesting. Even though Rep. Chris Van Hollen has a huge fundraising lead and has spent a lot of money running TV ads, a new poll from Goucher College finds Rep. Donna Edwards with a narrow 39-37 lead in the Democratic primary. Last month, a survey from Gonzales Research painted a similar picture, with Van Hollen ahead just 38-36.
So what gives? Well, it's been a while since we've seen any new Van Hollen ads, so it's possible he's dialed back his presence on the airwaves. That wouldn't be unreasonable: There's still two months to go before Election Day and TV advertising is costly in Maryland, so a lot of time remains for Van Hollen to make the most of his considerable cash advantage. And of course, ads are only one part of a much larger campaign: Van Hollen ought to be able to put together a superior ground game, especially if his many local endorsers lend some muscle to his effort.
But right now, the battle for the nomination looks very much unsettled, and if Edwards' allies at EMILY's List come through with another infusion of ads for her, there's no telling what might happen.
● NH-Sen, WI-Sen, PA-Sen: Sen. Kelly Ayotte just made it dead clear that she's joining the ranks of the strict obstructionists who rule the Senate: On Wednesday, the New Hampshire Republican declared she wouldn't even meet with any Supreme Court nominee that Barack Obama might put forth. Her comrade-in-arms, Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey, also said the same thing: He doesn't want to get SCOTUS cooties, either.
But in this case, the cure is worse than the disease. PPP, once again on behalf of Americans United for Change, has a second pair of polls of vulnerable Republican senators, and like the first batch, the numbers are not good for Team GOP. Ayotte sports a mediocre 42-48 job approval rating, and Granite State voters say they want Antonin Scalia's vacant seat filled this year by a 59-36 margin. Toomey, who was tested in the previous round of polling, faces a similar situation.
Wisconsin's Ron Johnson, meanwhile, fares even worse. He's the proud owner of a brutal 33-50 approval score, and voters in his home state are even more eager to see a replacement seated on the high court this year, supporting the idea by a 62-35 spread. Johnson has said that as far as he's concerned, "not acting is also acting." Unfortunately for him, an election is not the same as no election.
● PA-Sen: One Nation, a Karl Rove front group, spent a few million supporting Republicans in key Senate races last year, and they're now dropping $1 million for GOP Sen. Pat Toomey. Most of One Nation's spots have been incredibly boring, but this one is a bit more effective. The ad features a girl walking to school as a floor speech by Toomey about keeping children safe plays. The narrator then says that Toomey sponsored a bill to require background checks to keep predators out of schools.
Gubernatorial:
● PA-Gov: Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf announced on Wednesday that he was recently diagnosed with prostate cancer. Wolf said the disease was "thankfully detected early" and is "treatable," adding that he does not expect his treatment to interfere with his ability to carry out his job.
House:
● CA-44: State Sen. Isadore Hall has been doing well in the hunt for labor endorsements, and this week, he got the support of the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor, AFL-CIO. Hall faces ex-Hermosa Beach City Councilwoman Nanette Barragan, a fellow Democrat. Obama won this seat 85-14, and it's likely that both Hall and Barragan will advance past the June top-two primary into the general election.
● IL-08: Businessman Raja Krishnamoorthi has well over a million dollars in his campaign warchest and with just three weeks to go before the Democratic primary, he's finally decided to release the hounds. Krishnamoorthi's first (but undoubtedly not his last) spot features Krishnamoorthi in a diner, as patrons and employees read his progressive credentials off a tablet. Krishnamoorthi starts his ad by noting that he "has a long name and a short time to introduce myself," and the ensuing quick pace actually helps give the spot some good energy rather than making things feel rushed. Krishnamoorthi also borrows from ex-Louisiana Rep. Don Cazayoux's playbook at the end, as a voter unsuccessfully tries to pronounce his last name before the candidate tells her to just call him Raja.
Krishnamoorthi faces two other Democrats, state Sen. Mike Noland and Villa Park Mayor Deb Bullwinkel, in the March 15 primary. While Noland has some labor support, Krishnamoorthi has utterly dominated the money race: At the end of December, Krishnamoorthi had $1.27 million on hand, while Noland had only $64,000 and Bullwinkel had $12,000. (Unlike many other businessmen-turned-candidates, Krishnamoorthi hasn't done much self-funding.) (Correction: This item originally said that EMILY’s List has endorsed Bullwinkel. The group has not issued an endorsement.) It'll be very difficult for either Noland or Bullwinkel to win if Krishnamoorthi's ruling the airwaves, but it doesn't seem like they'll be able to air many ads on expensive Chicago TV. The winner of the Democratic primary should have little trouble in this 57-41 Obama seat.
● IL-10: The Democratic primary is just three weeks away, and ex-Rep. Brad Schneider is arguing that he's in the driver's seat. Schneider has released a Normington Petts poll giving him a 53-23 lead over Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering. That’s little-changed from a Schneider internal from October, when he was ahead 54-18. More recently, Rotering started airing a spot starring Sen. Dick Durbin, but while we don’t know how much she’s spent on it, it doesn’t appear to have had had a big impact yet, assuming Schneider’s polling is accurate. The key here is whether Rotering drops some numbers in response showing her in a better position, or if she lets this poll go unanswered. The Democratic nominee will face Republican Rep. Bob Dold!, who has proven to be a tough candidate in this suburban Chicago seat.
● NC-09: The newly-drawn congressional map gives Republican Rep. Robert Pittenger a district that's 61 percent new to him, so it's no surprise that he's taking to the airwaves to get his name out. Pittenger's spot attacks the Obama administration's Iran deal and says there's an "open border to terrorism," before the narrator praises Pittenger's approach to national security and says the congressman is "fighting to keep out refugees who pose a security threat." Pittenger faces ex-CIA agent George Rouco in the GOP primary, which is currently scheduled for June.
● OH-08: State Sen. Bill Beagle is the latest candidate to go on the air ahead of the March 15 GOP primary for this safely red seat. Beagle's spot comes to us from the "candidate shooting shit" school of ad making. The narrator lays out the conservative laundry list of how Obama has failed on security, on the Second Amendment, and on spending. After each issue, Beagle shoots skeet: Apparently, destroying clay targets is comparable to destroying ISIS.
The narrator then talks about Beagle's conservative record as he reloads; Beagle ends by declaring that when he goes to DC, he'll "get things done," before Beagle fires off camera one more time for good measure. (And yes, that does come across as more than a little menacing, though Republican primary voters probably won't see it that way.)
● TN-08: Shelby County Mayor Mark Luttrell has expressed interest in this safely red seat before, and he said on Tuesday that he'll probably decide what to do in the next week. If he gets in, Luttrell will likely be a formidable contender: About a third of this district lives in Shelby County, and Roll Call says that Luttrell should be able to raise money.
Mayoral:
● Sacramento, CA Mayor: Ex-Senate President Pro Tempore Darrell Steinberg will face off with Councilwoman Angelique Ashby in the June non-partisan primary, and Steinberg got a useful endorsement this week from Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Steinberg and Ashby entered the race around the same time last year, but Steinberg outraised her $243,000 to $168,000 in the final months of 2015. However, Ashby has the support of the Sacramento Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce, which could give her a boost in the money race. If no one takes a majority in June, there will be a November runoff.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
