Leading Off:
● IA-Sen: The GOP's sworn blood oath to deny Barack Obama any chance at appointing a replacement for Antonin Scalia is already about to have its first real electoral impact, nine months before Election Day. According to the New York Times, former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge is planning to announce a challenge to Sen. Chuck Grassley, the chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee and the face of the Supreme Court obstructionists, in the coming days. The Times didn't cite any sources, but Judge did tell the Des Moines Register last week that she was considering a bid, and the Register has since confirmed the Times' report.
If she goes through with it, Judge would be the most formidable opponent Grassley's faced since his first victorious Senate campaign all the way back in 1980, when he knocked off Democratic Sen. John Culver. While Grassley has a conservative voting record, he's always won support from a good share of Democrats and independents. The senator has earned respect for maintaining close ties to his constituents: Grassley makes it a point to visit all 99 of Iowa's counties every year, for example. And though Iowa has voted for Democrats for president all but once since Ronald Reagan left office, Grassley has always won re-election with over 60 and sometimes even 70 percent of the vote.
But being a conservative is one thing; serving as a partisan foot soldier in the name of Washington dysfunction is quite another. And Grassley's no mere grunt: He's Mitch McConnell's top colonel in this absurd fight. Both national and swing-state polls have shown that voters are generally hostile toward the GOP's stance on the Supreme Court, and that's before any Democratic attack ads have even aired. Add in the possibility that Republicans will find themselves defending Donald Trump's right to name Scalia's successor and the outlook could get very ugly very quickly for Grassley, who has been faring very poorly under the spotlight.
Judge would still need a whole lot to go right for her, though. She, too, has had a long career in Iowa politics, but she hasn't run a race on her own since 2002, when she won a second term as state agriculture secretary. (In Iowa, candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run on the same ticket; when Gov. Chet Culver was turned out after a single term in 2010, so was Judge.) She's also getting a late start, and she'll have to really be willing to tear Grassley down with the sort of negative campaign many pols find anathema.
Still, at the very least, Judge would help expand the playing field and put even more pressure on Grassley and his embrace of gridlock. For Democrats, both of those would be very good things.
Senate:
● MO-Sen, NH-Sen: The group End Citizens United is out with TV spots hitting Republican Sens. Roy Blunt and Kelly Ayotte on GOP's Supreme Court blockade. The narrator in both changes that Republicans are refusing to meet with a nominee "all for political gain." The Missouri ad is running for $130,000, while the New Hampshire spot is airing for $128,000.
● NV-Sen: The Koch-backed Concerned Veterans for America is spending $700,000 on a spot for Republican Joe Heck. The commercial has several veterans decrying the VA's performance, and praising Heck for working to fix it.
● OH-Sen: Cincinnati Councilor P.G. Sittenfeld, the clear underdog in the March 15 Democratic primary, is continuing his ad campaign. Sittenfeld's two spots (here and here) are almost identical: They feature Sittenfeld in a school telling the audience that he turned down a job at Google to come home and help improve education. The ads don't mention either primary rival Ted Strickland, the state's ex-governor, or GOP Sen. Rob Portman.
Gubernatorial:
● OR-Gov: Democrat Kate Brown seems to have acquitted herself well since she unexpectedly became governor early last year, and it's tough to see the GOP unseating her in this blue state in a presidential year. Still, GOP businessman Allen Alley, who lost the 2010 primary, hasn't ruled out a bid, and sources tell Oregon Public Broadcasting that he'll announce he's in on Monday. Alley would face a primary with physician Bud Pierce, who has poured $500,000 of his own money into his campaign so far. The filing deadline is on Tuesday; whoever wins the governorship will serve the final two years of ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber's term.
House:
● GA-09: During his seven-plus years in the House, Paul Broun emerged as one of the Republicans liberals absolutely loved to hate. Broun was a go-to guy for far-right quips, including his classic 2012 proclamation that "[a]ll that stuff I was taught about evolution, embryology, Big Bang theory, all that is lies straight from the pit of hell." Broun gave up his 10th District last cycle to run for the Senate, but he only took fifth place in the primary. Now it sounds like Broun wants his old job back, but in a different seat.
There were some rumors that Broun was looking to run for the open 3rd District, but now the buzz is that Broun will challenge Rep. Doug Collins in the GOP primary for the 9th District. Broun did nothing to dispel the reports that he's planning to target Collins, and he says he'll announce his plans on March 10. About 42 percent of the seat Broun represented from 2007 to 2013 is in Collins' northeastern Georgia district, so running here wouldn't be completely nuts. (Broun's old 10th District is represented by Jody Hice, whom Broun endorsed in 2014.)
Collins has generally been a reliably conservative but unmemorable member. Broun himself briefly made news last year despite being out of office when he tried to stop Paul Ryan from becoming speaker, so there's little doubt that the GOP establishment would back Collins if there's a primary. Broun was popular with the deep-pocked Club for Growth during his time in the House, but they didn't endorse him during his ill-fated Senate bid. Last year, a Broun consultant pled guilty to lying to investigators about whether he was paid in taxpayer money for Broun's Senate bid, and Collins is likely to regurgitate the story if he needs to. It's tough to see Broun unseating Collins, who doesn't appear to have made any major enemies, though strange things happen in low-turnout races. The Peach State's primary is May 24, and there will be a July runoff if no one takes a majority. This seat is safely red.
● IA-01: Former Saturday Night Live cast member Gary Kroeger bowed out of the Democratic primary earlier this week to run for the state House, and he endorsed Cedar Rapids Councilor Monica Vernon on his way out the door. National Democrats have consolidated behind Vernon, but she needs to get past 2014 nominee Pat Murphy in the June primary before she can focus on vulnerable freshman Rep. Rod Blum.
● IL-10: The March 15 Democratic primary to face GOP incumbent Bob Dold! is drawing near, and Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering is going negative on ex-Rep. Brad Schneider. Rotering's spot accuses Schneider of frequently siding against Obama, including on a vote "to undermine Obamacare," before the narrator briefly touts Rotering as a progressive. Both Democratic campaigns have plenty of money, but Schneider started the race with a huge name-recognition edge. A recent Schneider poll gave him a 53-23 lead in the primary, and Rotering has not responded with better numbers. It's quite possible that Rotering agrees that she's losing and is going on the offensive to try and change the game while there's still time.
● IN-09: The super PAC Indiana Jobs Now (which looks like Indiana Jones Now at first glance) recently spent $250,000 supporting businessman Trey Hollingsworth in the May GOP primary, and they're returning to the airwaves with a new spot. The commercial targets primary rival Greg Zoeller, the state attorney general, on immigration. The narrator argues that Zoeller supports amnesty and did nothing to challenge the Obama administration's immigration policies. The ad then briefly touts Hollingsworth as a conservative outsider. Two state senators, Erin Houchin and Brent Walz, are also seeking this red Southern Indiana seat, but there's little doubt that Hollingsworth's allies consider Zoeller their main foe right now. There's no word on the size of this new buy.
● LA-03, Sen: After spending months debating whether to run for the House or the Senate, Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle has announced that he'll seek the open 3rd District. Angelle performed very well in this Lafayette-area seat during the 2015 gubernatorial jungle primary, and he'll enter the race with more name recognition than any of his GOP foes. However, Angelle famously refused to endorse Sen. David Vitter during the runoff against Democrat John Bel Edwards. While Angelle didn't outright cross party lines like fellow GOP candidate Jay Dardenne did, his neutrality undoubtedly still has some Republicans upset.
Angelle's move will come as a huge relief to Rep. Charles Boustany, who is giving up this House seat to run for the Senate. Boustany and Angelle share a base in Acadiana, and they would have cost each other some votes. But with Angelle running for the House instead, Boustany gets to be the only major Republican candidate from the region in what's shaping up to be a crowded race.
Angelle is the sixth Republican to enter the House contest: Also running are energy executive Greg Ellison; ex-state Rep. Brett Geymann; Lafayette School Board member Erick Knezek; wealthy businessman Gus Rantz; and ex-Ambassador Grover Rees. All the candidates will compete on one ballot in the November jungle primary and unless someone takes a majority, the top two vote-getters will advance to a December runoff. Romney carried this seat 66-32, so there's little doubt it will stay red. However, it's far from clear if the runoff will pit two Republicans against one another, or if a Democrat will take one of the spots.
● NV-03: On Thursday, Jacky Rosen, the president of a prominent Reform synagogue in Las Vegas, received the endorsement of EMILY's List, the influential Democratic group that helps elect pro-choice women to Congress. Support from EMILY can come in two ways: Sometimes the organization spends its own funds on ads or mailings to help its chosen candidates, but more commonly, it encourages its supporters to contribute directly to the campaigns of endorsees.
Rosen, who previously earned the DCCC's seal of approval by getting named to their "Red to Blue" program, faces attorney Jesse Sbaih in the primary for this Las Vegas-area seat. The GOP establishment, meanwhile, has coalesced behind state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson, though Republican power brokers nationwide have rarely looked more impotent than they do right now. For that reason alone, you can't rule out the possibility that one of the extreme nutters running could emerge with the party's nomination.
Chief lunatic is gun-obsessed Assemblywoman Michele Fiore, who was last seen inserting herself as some kind of lay hostage crisis negotiator between the FBI and the armed nutters occupying the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in Oregon. But while Fiore has taken steps toward a bid, she's never officially said she'll run. However, another unhinged soul, Danny Tarkanian—the most famous perennial candidate in America now that Harold Stassen is no longer among us—is filling the breach.
If anything, though, Democrats (sadly) have to root for Fiore to stay out, since Tarkanian has a better shot at beating Roberson if he doesn't have to fight over the whackjob vote with Fiore. But while a Rosen-Tarkanian matchup in November would be a dream for Democrats, they need to prepare for Roberson, who will be tough to beat. Barack Obama carried this open seat by about a point, but Republicans have always run well here down-ticket.
● NY-18: Democratic Rep. Sean Maloney isn't a top-tier GOP target, but Team Red isn't letting this 51-47 Obama seat fall to the wayside just yet. Ex-Rep. Nan Hayworth, who lost two tight races to Maloney, has endorsed Phil Oliva, a top aide to Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino. Oliva only got into the race this year, so we don't know if he's capable of raising the type of money he'll need to take down the formidable Maloney.
● NY-22: Democrats had been searching for an answer in New York's open 22nd Congressional District, and now they've landed one of their preferred recruits: Broome County Legislator Kim Myers, who is the daughter of Dick's Sport Goods founder Dick Stack. Broome forms about a quarter of the district, so even though Myers is one of 15 county legislators, she at least has a geographic base to start with. It's also possible she's capable of self-funding, or at the very least knows some rich people (Forbes says her father is worth over $1 billion).
Myers will face former Oneida County Legislator Dave Gordon in the Democratic primary, but she should be able to make short work of him, considering that he's described himself as a "conservative Democrat." The Republican primary, meanwhile, is a three-way fight between tea partying Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney, former Broome County Legislator George Phillips, and businessman Steve Wells. If the GOP establishment has a preference, it's probably for Wells.
While Myers' entry now assures that this will be a closely fought race, the stakes are higher for Democrats. This district split almost perfectly between Obama and Romney in 2012, and Democrats badly need to win here to get back on the path toward a majority in the House. That's not to say Republicans would be blithe about losing, but with their wide majority, they can afford to lose some seats. With a rare open seat opportunity, Democrats can't afford not to win.
● VA-07, 04: On Wednesday, Henrico County Sheriff Mike Wade decided to drop his intra-party bid against GOP Rep. Dave Brat and run in the new 4th District, a Richmond-area seat Obama carried 61-39. Wade tells the Washington Post that he decided not to challenge Brat in the end because the GOP nomination will be decided through a convention instead of a primary. This makes sense, since conventions tend to be dominated by ideological activists who are no friends of the party establishment. While Brat is the incumbent, Wade was backed by Republican power players who are still furious that Brat defeated then-Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the 2014 primary.
If Wade had left it there, his explanation for leaving the 7th would have been ok. But Wade went on to complain that a "lot of [Brat's] followers haven't been exactly nice to me." He claims that Brat's supporters were trying to recall him from office, and Wade "saw online postings soliciting unflattering photos of him." Wade unconvincingly claims he's "not scared of them. I just think I have a better opportunity in the Fourth." The good news for Wade is that Democrats in the 4th will probably be a lot nicer to him before they beat him.
● WI-08: GOP state Rep. Andre Jacque has announced that he will not seek this open 51-48 Romney seat. A number of Republicans initially expressed interest in trying to succeed Reid Ribble but, aside from ex-state Rep. Chad Weininger, they've now either committed to running or taken their names out of contention.
The August primary is currently a duel between state Sen. Frank Lasse and Mike Gallagher, Scott Walker's former foreign policy advisor. The filing deadline isn't until June so there's still plenty of time for someone else to jump in, but it feels like the primary has finally taken shape here. However, Team Blue is still in the hunt for a candidate. The top choice is Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson; a few other Democrats have made noises about getting in, especially if Nelson doesn't.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
