Stupid:
Aside from the fact that we really don’t know who actually won the Iowa caucuses (yes, Hillary Clinton won the most delegates, but god forbid the Iowa Democratic Party show its math), and ignoring the myriad organizational problems we’ve seen in so many others, the simple matter of the fact is that the caucus makes it difficult for people to participate. And there’s no better evidence than the actual turnout numbers.
Here’s a look at the turnout in the various caucus states. VAP stands for “Voting Age Population,” so everyone in the state who is eligible to vote, over 18 and a U.S. citizen.
STATE |
VAP |
Turnout DEM |
%VAP |
Turnout GOP |
%VAP |
TOTAL % |
IA |
2.4M |
171K |
7.1 |
187K |
7.8 |
14.9 |
NV |
2.2M |
84K |
3.8 |
75K |
3.4 |
7.2 |
AK |
.55M |
- |
- |
22K |
4 |
- |
CO |
3.9 |
124K |
3.2 |
n/a |
n/a |
3.2 |
MN |
4M |
215K |
5.3 |
122K |
3 |
8.3 |
KS |
2.1M |
40K |
1.9 |
73K |
3.5 |
5.4 |
KY |
3.3M |
- |
- |
230K |
7 |
- |
ME |
1.1M |
46K |
4.2 |
19K |
1.7 |
5.9 |
The Colorado GOP just skipped the whole messy “letting people vote” thing. Democrats will vote in Kentucky and Alaska at later dates. But you can see that the percent of the state having a say in the matter is downright pathetic, even in supposedly tuned-in Iowa. Now let’s look at those numbers for primary states.
Here are the same numbers for primary states:
STATE |
VAP |
TURNOUT DEM |
%VAP |
TURNOUT GOP |
%VAP |
TOTAL % |
NH |
1.1M |
255K |
23.2 |
288K |
26.2 |
49.4 |
SC |
3.8M |
370K |
9.7 |
745K |
19.7 |
29.4 |
AL |
3.8M |
398K |
10.5 |
856K |
22.5 |
32.7 |
GA |
7.8M |
761K |
9.8 |
1,293K |
16.6 |
26.4 |
MA |
5.4M |
1,205K |
22.3 |
631K |
11.7 |
34 |
OK |
3M |
336K |
11.2 |
460K |
15.3 |
26.5 |
TX |
20.5M |
1,434 |
7 |
2,832 |
13.8 |
20.8 |
VT |
.5M |
135K |
27 |
61K |
12.2 |
39.2 |
VA |
6.5M |
783K |
12 |
1,025K |
15.8 |
27.8 |
No one should pretend that these are great turnout rates, though you would expect turnout to be lower for intra-party affairs (not everyone cares about who the parties nominate). Still, the difference between the two is huge, 3-4 times as high in primary states.
Indeed, the highest caucus state, the much celebrated Iowa, had turnout (14.9 percent of VAP) that was significantly lower than the worst-performing primary state, Texas (20.8 percent of VAP).
If the goal is to filter out as many voters as possible while proving the organizational incompetence of both parties, then yes, caucuses are the way to go. Otherwise, it’s past time to get past the caucus system. And if state parties refuse to play along, then use the delegate-allocation rules to penalize caucus states. If they refuse to allow full participation in choosing a nominee, then their delegation should be reduced accordingly, by … dividing their delegation by three or four.