Leading Off:
● IL State House: As president, Barack Obama has rarely, if ever, picked sides in a state legislative primary or called for unseating a Democratic incumbent. But on Monday, Obama endorsed Juliana Stratton, who is challenging Illinois state Rep. Ken Dunkin in the March 15 primary for the safely blue HD-05.
Democrats hold exactly the number of seats in the state House that they need to override Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner's vetoes (Team Blue also has a super-majority in the state Senate), but Dunkin has repeatedly made life difficult for his party. Most notably, Dunkin was the one Democrat who broke ranks on a key budget vote that would have reversed Rauner's cuts to social services. State House Speaker Mike Madigan and other notable party leaders have endorsed Stratton, while Rauner's allies have contributed heavily to the incumbent's campaign and run ads boosting him.
Obama himself isn't just issuing a nice press release for Stratton: He's recorded a TV ad and radio spots for her. The TV commercial features old pictures of Obama, while the president says that he came to Chicago to strengthen the community and "follow-through is everything." Obama then praises Stratton as a leader who follows through, and he highlights her legal career and agenda. The ad does not mention Dunkin. Interestingly, a good chunk of Obama's old state Senate seat is included in HD-05, though of course the president's influence is very strong throughout Chicago.
Senate:
● AZ-Sen, MO-Sen, NC-Sen: On behalf of Americans United for Change, PPP continues to poll key states to find out how the Supreme Court vacancy might play out with voters, and the numbers continue to look poor for Republican senators. Three potentially vulnerable incumbents all sport miserable job approval ratings: John McCain (Arizona) is deep underwater at 26-63 spread, while Roy Blunt (Missouri) is at 25-48, and Richard Burr (North Carolina) isn't much different, with a 28-44 score.
Now, PPP almost always yields approval numbers that look low compared to those from other firms, but what's notable is that these are all even lower than the last time PPP itself tested each state. Burr was at 29-40 less than a month ago, Blunt was at 30-47 in August, and McCain was at 36-51 in May—an enormous drop for the senator from Arizona. And by 14-to-16-point margins, majorities favor filling Antonin Scalia's seat this year rather than waiting until next year. But we still don't know just how much this issue will actually move voters, so we'll probably have to wait to see whether campaign dollars get spent pounding SCOTUS obstructionism down the stretch.
● FL-Sen: So what does Ben Carson think of the idea floated by Republican operatives who promise to give him all the "goodies" if he migrates to Florida and runs for Senate? "It's not something that I want to do," says the retired neurosurgeon and former presidential hopeful. Ah well. We'll be looking for him the next time we stop in at a Popeyes organization.
● GA-Sen: While Georgia's 16 electoral votes may end up in play this fall, few Democrats are optimistic that they can beat GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson. But the March 11 filing deadline is coming up and Team Blue wants someone to run here just in case things go completely to hell for the GOP.
Over the weekend, ex-state Sen. Regina Thomas said she was considering jumping in. Thomas challenged then-Rep. John Barrow twice in the Democratic primary, losing 58-42 during her second attempt in 2010; Thomas then took third in 2011's Savannah mayoral race. Thomas is far from a top-tier candidate but at this point, it's not like Democrats have many other options. US Attorney Ed Tarver expressed interest in January, but he's said nothing since then.
● IL-Sen: With one week to go before the Democratic primary, ex-Chicago Urban League head Andrea Zopp is out with her second TV spot. Zopp's ad starts with footage from the deaths of Walter Scott, Philip Coleman, and Laquan McDonald, as Zopp tells the viewer, "You don't have to be black to know our criminal justice system is broken." After describing her career as a prosecutor, Zopp says that "[w]e don't need more Band-Aids on a broken system, we need fundamental change in Washington." Zopp is competing with Rep. Tammy Duckworth, the primary favorite, and state Sen. Napoleon Harris for the right to face GOP Sen. Mark Kirk.
● NH-Sen: Angry conservatives have been threatening to challenge Sen. Kelly Ayotte in the September GOP primary for a while and on Friday, she finally picked up an opponent. However, ex-state Sen. Jim Rubens is hardly the most intimidating guy in the Granite State. Rubens ran in the 2014 Senate primary and lost to Scott Brown 50-23. Rubens is a self-described "moderate on social issues," so he's not exactly a natural conduit for tea party anger. Democratic candidate Maggie Hassan would be delighted if Rubens forces Ayotte to waste some money and lurch a bit to the right, but Ayotte's not exactly going to be kept up late at night by fears of Rubensmentum.
● PA-Sen: Katie McGinty, one of the three Democrats competing in the April 26 primary to face GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, is out with her first TV ad. The spot features McGinty decrying how well special interests are doing "while paychecks don't go far enough." There's no word on the size of the buy.
House:
● AZ-01: On Monday, state Sen. Carlyle Begay unexpectedly announced that he would enter the GOP primary for this open 50-48 Romney seat. Begay was originally elected as a Democrat, but he joined the GOP in November. Most voters in Begay's heavily Native American legislative district lean Democratic, so he doesn't enter this contest with much of a geographic base. It's also far from clear if conservative donors will decide to support Begay, who would be the first Navajo to serve in Congress, or if, like so many party-switchers before him, he finds out the hard way that he doesn't have many influential friends left.
Begay will have a lot of company in the August primary. The best-known candidate is likely Pinal Sheriff Paul Babeu, who has earned some bad press in recent weeks after an old video surfaced proving that, despite Babeu's protests to the contrary, he knew about the abusive practices that happened under his watch while he served as a school headmaster. Also running are wealthy rancher Gary Kiehne, who came close to winning the 2014 primary; state House Speaker David Gowan; ex-Secretary of State Ken Bennett; and 2014 9th District nominee Wendy Rogers. Democrats have consolidated behind ex-GOP state Sen. Tom O'Halleran, but he's had problems raising money.
● AZ-05: On behalf of what they're only identifying as "an interested party in the East Valley," Data Orbital pits ex-Mesa Mayor Scott Smith against state Senate President Andy Biggs in a poll of the August GOP primary. Data Orbital only released the toplines, which show Smith ahead 33-26. Only Biggs is currently running for this safely red seat but Smith, who lost the 2014 gubernatorial primary, sounds intrigued. While Smith says he originally didn't plan to run, this poll has him taking a second look. Smith also said on Friday that he'll decide sometime in the next few days.
However, even if Smith gets in, there's no guarantee this will be a straight fight between him and Biggs. A number of other Republicans have expressed interest, though Biggs, who is backed by retiring Rep. Matt Salmon, still has the field to himself. But state Sen. Bob Worsley announced on Friday that "[a]t this time, I do not plan to run but want to continue to elevate Mesa and Arizona's reputation as your representative in the state Senate," though of course that's not a straight-up no. If Smith runs, he'll start with some good name recognition since Mesa makes up 42 percent of this seat's population.
● CA-24, 25, 44, 46: The state SEIU has endorsed several Democrats in House races, and they're taking sides in some intra-party fights. In the open 24th, they're joining national Democrats and the California Democratic Party in choosing Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal over Santa Barbara Mayor Helene Schneider. Over in the 25th, they're supporting lawyer Bryan Caforio over Agua Dulce Town Councilman Lou Vince; DC Democrats have signaled that they prefer Caforio, but the state and county party recently backed Vince's campaign against GOP Rep. Steve Knight (though that may not last; see our CA-25 item for more).
The SEIU also weighed in on two safely blue seats. In the 44th, they're joining the state party in backing state Sen. Isadore Hall over ex-Hermosa Beach City Councilwoman Nanette Barragan. And in the 46th, they're supporting ex-state Sen. Joe Dunn over ex-state Sen. Lou Correa and Garden Grove Mayor Bao Nguyen. While Correa has won endorsements from a number of California House members, no one won the state party endorsement last month. California's top-two primary is in June.
● CA-25: Oof—not good. According to a new report in L.A. Weekly, Agua Dulce Town Councilman Lou Vince was accused of beating an unarmed black man, Cecil Miller, after pulling him over in a traffic stop while Vince and a partner were on patrol with the LAPD in 2000. Vince claims he was "exonerated" by his department and insists there was "no evidence we did anything wrong," but Miller filed a lawsuit and the city of Los Angeles agreed to pay him $150,000 to settle his claims.
Vince, who is running for Congress, recently earned the formal endorsement of the California Democratic Party, but local officials immediately grew concerned when this story emerged. Eric Bauman, the chair of the L.A. County Democrats, says he's "incredibly troubled" by the allegations and says he plans to discuss the matter with the state party "to see what the appropriate steps might be for us to take." If Democrats were to rescind their endorsement, that could seriously upend the battle between Vince and attorney Bryan Caforio, who are vying for the right to take on GOP Rep. Steve Knight.
● FL-05, 10: A couple of months ago, federal investigators served Democratic Rep. Corrine Brown with a subpoena while she dined at a barbecue restaurant in her hometown of Jacksonville. While Brown is usually chatty, this time she refused to say what prosecutors were looking for, citing the advice of her attorneys. She did, however, suggest that the inquiry was linked to her lawsuit fighting a recent court ruling that redrew her congressional district, conspiratorially claiming that her seat is "under siege by other political forces."
Now, though, a local news station based in Orlando, WFTV, has uncovered documents that, it says, point to the true nature of the investigation. According to the station, a Virginia-based group called One Door for Education used Brown's name and the seal of the U.S. House on invitations to fundraisers and receptions, and they even used Brown's official letterhead on one occasion. House rules forbid the use of official insignia for such solicitations. (Charlie Rangel was censured by the House in part for similar violations.)
And just two days after WFTV's report, the head of One Door for Education, Carla Wiley, pleaded guilty to charges that she conspired to commit wire fraud. According to prosecutors, One Door took in $800,000 in donations but only issued a single $1,000 scholarship in furtherance of its supposed mission. Brown was not indicted in the Wiley case, but other court filings refer to a "Person A" who is likely the congresswoman. Among other things, these documents refer to a public official who put together a golf tournament for One Door at TPC Sawgrass in July 2013—an event Brown indeed hosted, raising over $100,000.
Nothing has yet surfaced that directly implicates Brown in any wrongdoing, though her office has still declined to comment. However, the investigation is ongoing, and in a sign of serious potential trouble for Brown, Wiley's plea deal includes an agreement to "testify in a larger ongoing probe," according to the Orland Sentinel. If Wiley has incriminating information that points a finger at Brown, federal prosecutors—for whom there are few bigger prizes than taking down a federal elected official—will be most eager to act on it.
Brown still hasn't confirmed whether she'll seek re-election in the redrawn 5th (which still includes Jacksonville), or head down to the new 10th, which is now based in the Orlando area. But depending on how this investigation goes, she may be faced with an entirely different third alternative.
● IL-08: With one week to go before the primary for this heavily Democratic seat, businessman Raja Krishnamoorthi is out with another GBA Strategies poll showing him running away with the nomination. The survey, which was conducted from March 3-6, gives Krishnamoorthi a 55-17 lead over state Sen. Mike Noland, with Villa Park President Deb Bullwinkel at 9. A February Krishnamoorthi poll taken before he started advertising on TV gave him a smaller but still significant 41-27 lead over Noland. Neither Noland nor Bullwinkel have raised or spent much money, so this result is very plausible.
● NC-13: Over the weekend, Iredell County Register of Deeds Matt McCall became the fourth Republican to announce that he would run for this newly-drawn seat. About 20 percent of the district is in Iredell, though register of deeds is rarely a very high-profile post. But McCall did resign as head of the county GOP to run, so he may have some useful connections. McCall joins state Rep. John Blust, state Sen. Andrew Brock, and perennial candidate Vernon Robinson in the June primary, though North Carolina's new congressional map has not yet been approved in federal court.
● NY-03: Over the weekend, ex-Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi announced that he would seek the Democratic nod for this open Long Island swing seat. Suozzi immediately picked up an endorsement from Queens Borough President Melinda Katz, which isn't a bad get since 17 percent of the district (and a disproportionate number of Democrats) live in Queens.
Despite Katz's support, many Democrats will not be happy to see Suozzi back. Suozzi was once a rising star in Long Island politics, but things began to go wrong in 2006 when he was demolished by Eliot Spitzer in the gubernatorial primary. Suozzi thought he was a lock for a third term, but he lost re-election to Republican Ed Mangano in a complete shocker. Suozzi tried to win back his old job four years later, but he got flattened by Mangano 59-41.
Suozzi is the fourth notable Democrat to enter the June primary to succeed retiring Rep. Steve Israel. Suozzi will face ex-North Hempstead Supervisor Jon Kaiman, North Hempstead Town Board member Anna Kaplan, and Suffolk County Legislator Steve Stern; additionally, lobbyist Brad Gerstman is raising money but has not yet announced he's in. About half this seat is in Nassau, so Suozzi will start with plenty of name recognition, though not all of it will be positive. Stern is the only candidate who hails from the Suffolk third of this seat, which could give him an advantage in the primary if he can run the table at home while everyone else splits up the Nassau and Queens vote. On the GOP side, state Sen. Jack Martins and Assemblyman Chad Lupinacci are both in, while Suffolk County Legislator Rob Trotta has filed but has yet to announce he's in. The filing deadline is in mid-April, so things should fully take shape soon; Obama carried this seat 51-48.
● NY-13: Longtime Rep. Charlie Rangel has not endorsed anyone to succeed him in this safely blue seat, but he's not doing much to hide his preference for Assemblyman and Manhattan Democratic Party chair Keith Wright. Rangel appeared at a recent candidate debate and warned the audience that "[t]he tranquility of this district, historically, would be lost if any candidate was not respected in all parts of this congressional district." This was widely interpreted as a shot at state Sen. Adriano Espaillat, the man who almost unseated Rangel in 2012 and 2014.
Rangel went on bemoan well-financed outsiders who run without knowing community leaders, an unsubtle jab at ex-DNC Political Director and 2012 primary rival Clyde Williams. While several other Democrats are running in the June primary, Espaillat has a base with Dominican-American voters and Williams has plenty of money, so they probably have the best chance to spoil things for Wright.
● PA-07: National Democrats have made it no secret that they support pastor Bill Golderer over underfunded 2014 nominee Mary Ellen Balchunis in the April primary to face Rep. Pat Meehan. Still, it's notable that Steny Hoyer, the number two Democrat in the House, will be headlining a fundraiser for Golderer. Romney carried this seat only 50-49, but Meehan is a tough candidate.
Legislative:
● KY State House, Special Elections: Tuesday could bring the end to the Kentucky Democratic Party's almost 95-year-old majority in the state House. Team Blue currently holds a 50-46 edge, and special elections are being held to fill the remaining four seats. Because one sitting Democratic state representative is absent after receiving heart surgery, a 50-50 tie would effectively allow the GOP to run the chamber. Republicans hold the governor's mansion and the state Senate, and the state House is the only thing preventing them from having complete control of the state government.
The entire chamber is up in November; if Democrats do well on Tuesday, it will give the party some hope that they can hold on in the fall. In a new post, Johnny Longtorso gives us a rundown of all four seats, as well as lower-profile special elections in Michigan and New Hampshire.
Other Races:
● Maricopa County, AZ Sheriff : Back in December, ex-Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, a Democrat, expressed interest in challenging Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arapio in this fall's non-partisan race. Gordon's been quiet since then and the county Democratic Party is going in a different direction in any case. Joe Rodriguez, a former Department of Corrections officer, has no electoral experience, but the Maricopa County Democratic Party has endorsed him. The party reportedly tried to recruit U.S. Marshal David Gonzales, but they've evidently given up.
Arapio is infamous for his abusive treatment of prisoners, for his appreciation of racial profiling, and for going hog-wild nuts with an "investigation" where he "proved" that Barack Obama's birth certificate is fraudulent. Arapio only won re-election by 6 points in 2012, but he has a clear edge in conservative Maricopa County. While Rodriguez should be able to get a significant numbers of votes simply for being the anti-Arapio candidate, he's going to need to run a strong campaign and get some good luck if he's actually going to beat him in the fall.
Grab Bag:
● International Elections: Over the weekend, we published the second monthly installment of the Daily Kos International Elections Digest, covering major electoral developments around the globe. In Iran, moderates scored an unexpected victory over conservative hardliners who had opposed the country's controversial nuclear deal with the West, while in Ireland, a pro-austerity government was swept from office, which could lead to a historic realignment of Irish politics. We've also previewed upcoming elections in a dozen different nations, including France, the UK, Peru, Canada, and Haiti. You can read the International Digest on the web, or click here to sign up to get it by email.
● Michigan and Mississippi Primary: On Tuesday, both parties will hold their presidential primaries in Michigan and Mississippi, and the GOP will also host a caucus in Hawaii and a primary in Idaho. (Note that Mississippi will also hold its congressional primary Tuesday, but there's not much to see; Michigan's downballot primary isn't until August).
David Jarman has put together a preview of both primaries to give us an idea of what to watch for each side. Poll close in Mississippi and most of Michigan at 8 PM Eastern (a small bit of the Upper Peninsula closes an hour later), and we'll begin our liveblog at Daily Kos Elections then; we'll also be live tweeting from our Daily Kos Elections account.
● Radio: On Sunday night, Jeff Singer appeared on the Kudzu Vine to discuss both party's presidential races, the Louisiana Senate and open House races, and the Louisiana budget crisis. Click here to listen to the recording.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.