Senate:
● FL-Sen: On behalf of two Florida TV stations, SurveyUSA takes a look at both parties' August Senate primaries. Unsurprisingly, they find that the GOP race is a mess:
Rep. David Jolly: 18
Rep. Ron DeSantis: 11
Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera: 9
Businessman Todd Wilcox: 7
Some Dude Ilya Katz: 4
Businessman Carlos Beruff: 1
Pretty much every primary poll has given Jolly a plurality. Jolly's problem is that he has little money, so he'll have a tough time maintaining his edge once the ad wars start.
This is the first public poll to include Beruff, who entered the race at the end of February. While Beruff is barely registering now, he is wealthy and he won't have a problem spending to get his name out. Wilcox has barely been in a factor in this contest so far but he's also rich and has money to burn, so he also has some room to grow. DeSantis has the support of some well-funded tea party-friendly groups so he should be able to boost his name recognition as well; Lopez-Cantera hasn't exactly been a fundraising all-star though.
In a separate question, SurveyUSA asked GOP primary voters what they would do if Ben Carson ran, and 56 percent of respondents say they would "definitely vote for Carson." Carson recently ruled out a bid, and it's very likely that if he actually ran, voters wouldn't be so committed to him once they learned more about the other contenders. Still, we can dream.
On the Democratic side, SurveyUSA has Patrick Murphy, the establishment favorite, leading fellow Rep. Alan Grayson 27-16, with Some Dude Pam Keith at 11. This poll was conducted after President Obama endorsed Murphy. A recent PPP poll, taken before the president's endorsement, gave Grayson a 33-22 lead. It's worth noting that PPP's poll asked voters in Florida's March presidential primary about their Senate preference, while this SurveyUSA poll appears to have sampled likely August voters.
● GA-Sen: Georgia's filing deadline is on Friday and while few Democrats think that Sen. Johnny Isakson is vulnerable right now, they're hoping to field a credible candidate here. The Peach State has been slowly trending Democratic and if the state's electoral votes wind up in play this year, Isakson could have a more difficult re-election campaign than he anticipated. But any Democratic nominee would need to be able to spend a good deal of money to actually threaten Isakson, so it's no surprise that Team Blue is hoping to land a self-funder.
Jim Barksdale, who leads an investment firm, tells the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that a Senate bid is "something I've thought about over the years," but he's said little else. However, the paper says that Barksdale is "expected to qualify for office this week," and that he's "the party-backed candidate." If Barksdale runs, it sounds like he's ready to spend millions of his own money on the effort.
● MD-Sen: Tuesday brought us two big pieces of news in Maryland's Senate race. First came a new poll of the Democratic primary from Gonzales Research, which found Rep. Chris Van Hollen up just 42-41 on fellow Rep. Donna Edwards; that's essentially unchanged from two months ago, when Gonzales had Van Hollen leading 38-36. Later that same day, EMILY's List said it would spend another $1 million in support of Edwards, bringing the group's total outlay on her behalf to $2.4 million.
It's unlikely that one development directly led to the other: If you're committing seven figures to a statewide election, you're probably doing your own polling to make sure your investing wisely. But EMILY's move does suggest that their private numbers can't be too far from the public data, which has shown a tantalizingly close race for some time despite Van Hollen's heavy initial burst of advertising. Van Hollen still has time to make the most of his massive 12-to-1 cash advantage, and it may be that he's waiting until we get closer to the April 26 primary to make his move. But for now, EMILY is allowing Edwards to remain in the game and make it much harder for Van Hollen to pull away.
● NV-Sen: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto is out with her first TV spot. Masto goes biographical by promoting her big family and describing how her parents met, before talking about her record as state attorney general. There's no word on the size of the buy.
● OH-Sen: Though Cincinnati City Councilor P.G. Sittenfeld has hit former Gov. Ted Strickland hard on his past "A" ratings from the NRA in the Democratic primary, Strickland just earned the endorsement of the most prominent gun safety advocate in the country: former Rep. Gabby Giffords, who founded the group Americans for Responsible Solutions after she was shot in the head five years ago at a public event by a gunman who killed six people. It represents an interesting evolution for Strickland, who once championed his support for gun owners but now is on record supporting background checks for gun buyers, closing the "terror watch list loophole," and repealing immunity for gun manufacturers and dealers.
House:
● CA-46: It's never been a secret that Joe Dunn, one of the three Democrats seeking this safely blue Orange County seat, was fired from his job as executive director of the State Bar of California in 2014 and has been involved in a messy lawsuit with them. Until now though, we didn't know many actual details. However, a recently released investigative report prepared for the bar paints an unflattering picture of Dunn.
The report alleges that Dunn, a former state senator, repeatedly failed to tell the bar's board many important details, and may have even repeatedly misled them. Among other things, the report says that Dunn asked the board to sponsor some legislation without informing them that the state Supreme Court's chief justice had asked them to "delay further action" on it. (The bar is an arm of the state Supreme Court.) Dunn's campaign denies the allegations and says he properly informed the board. Dunn faces ex-state Sen. Lou Correa and Garden Grove Mayor Bao Nguyen in the June top-two primary.
● IL-15: The American Action Network, a group that's close to ex-Speaker John Boehner, is spending $200,000 in support of Rep. John Shimkus. Their TV spot promotes Shimkus as an ardent conservative who stands up to Obama. Shimkus faces state Sen. Kyle McCarter in next week's primary for this safely red downstate seat.
● MN-02: On Tuesday, retiring GOP Rep. John Kline endorsed businesswoman Darlene Miller, one of several Republicans running for this suburban swing seat. Kline has spoken well of Miller in the past and Miller's campaign manager is his former political director, so this isn't a huge surprise. The rest of the GOP field also isn't incredibly impressive. Ex-state Sen. John Howe has been mostly just self-funding his bid, while former radio host Jason Lewis has a long history of racist and sexist statements. Miller herself hasn't been in the race long enough for us to get an idea of her fundraising. On the Democratic side, health care executive Angie Craig faces little competition.
● NV-03: While GOP Assemblywoman Michele Fiore never officially announced that she was running for this open swing seat, she did appear at a recent candidate debate. In any case, Fiore has now confirmed she's filing to run for Congress. Democrats would love to face the far-right Fiore, but she's much more likely to take votes away from wealthy perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian and secure the nomination for state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson.
● NY-01: In a somewhat unusual move, Suffolk County's Independence Party has decided to give its November ballot line to venture capitalist Dave Calone, who is seeking the Democratic nomination to take on GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin. What makes the decision notable is that Calone's primary opponent is former Southampton Town Supervisor Anna Throne-Holst, who was actually elected supervisor as a member of the Independence Party and only became a Democrat last year. The split may be more personal than political, though: One unnamed party official told Newsday that county chair Frank MacKay "feels we were much better partners to Anna than she was to us."
Whatever the case may be, the IP's line can be valuable in a general election, as there are always a certain number of voters who disdain major-party labels and are more comfortable voting for a candidate who is labeled an "independent." But it won't have much of an impact on the Democratic primary, and in fact, should Throne-Holst win the nomination, the IP would very likely try to switch horses (by nominating Calone for a judgeship) and give its ballot spot to her.
● OH-14: The group Defending Main Street, which has come to the aid of establishment Republicans in the past, is spending at least $100,000 on a TV spot for Rep. David Joyce. The ad emphasized Joyce's conservatism, and even argues that the congressman is "fighting the establishment in Washington." The US Chamber of Commerce has also been airing ads for Joyce ahead of the March 15 primary. Joyce's opponent is ex-state Rep. Matt Lynch, who has little money or outside support.
● PA-07: While national Democrats are backing pastor Bill Golderer's campaign against GOP Rep. Pat Meehan, some influential Democrats are actually hosting a fundraiser for Meehan. John Dougherty, whom PoliticsPA called "perhaps the most powerful union leader in the commonwealth," is joining three Democratic fundraisers in hosting an event for Meehan.
Meehan faces an April primary challenge from real estate investor Stan Casacio. Casacio hasn't demonstrated that he has the resources to topple Meehan, but it's very possible that the congressman's bipartisan supporters think it's better to keep Meehan in office rather than risk letting Casacio represent this light red seat. (Casacio's campaign is certainly pushing that narrative.) Still, it's ridiculous that Democrats think that having Meehan instead of Golderer in the House is a good thing. While Meehan may be friendly towards labor, there's no doubt that Paul Ryan and any future Republican speakers are not.
Other Races:
● WA-LG: The lowest-turnover job in America, Washington's lieutenant governor, just came open. (Only three people have held this post since 1957.) Democrat Brad Owen announced his retirement after 20 years of presiding over the state Senate, waiting for the governor to die, and touring the state's middle schools with his rock band to play at anti-drug assemblies.
With most people already having assumed Owen's retirement was imminent, there's already a multi-way pileup of prominent Democrats seeking the job: state Sens. Karen Fraser, Cyrus Habib, and Steve Hobbs, and state Rep. Jim Moeller. University Place Mayor Javier Figueroa is the most prominent Republican in the race.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
