Leading Off:
● MD-Sen: It's safe to say at this point that Maryland's Democratic primary for Senate has not gone the way we had expected—or the way Chris Van Hollen had wished it would. A new survey from OpinionWorks for the Baltimore Sun and the University of Baltimore finds Rep. Donna Edwards beating Van Hollen, a fellow member of the House, by 34 to 28 margin; when a host of minor candidates are excluded, Edwards' advantage balloons out to 45-35. Back in November, it was Van Hollen who had the lead, 45-31.
Since then, we've seen a trio of other polls showing the candidates separated by just 1 or 2 points, but this the first time in a long time Edwards has sported a material lead. Months ago, it looked like Van Hollen was going to swamp Edwards: Not only did his huge fundraising edge allow him to get up on TV early to introduce himself to voters in other parts of the state, but much of the state's Democratic establishment also endorsed him. (Indeed, he just secured the backing of Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz, who represents an area the DC-based Van Hollen's tried hard to make inroads into.)
However, Edwards' biggest ally, EMILY's List, seemed to keep her in the game with large ad expenditures of their own. Indeed, EMILY recently re-upped on Edwards' behalf and says it's spent over $2 million to date. It may also be that despite Van Hollen's broad support from black leaders, there's still a hunger to see a black woman elected to the Senate from Maryland. Indeed, in the OpinionWorks poll, black voters (who make up 39 percent of the poll's sample) back Edwards by a huge 67-16 margin.
But as we've noted before, the primary is not until April 26, meaning Van Hollen still has six weeks to dump his considerable war chest on the airwaves. And even if EMILY were to match him dollar for dollar, Van Hollen's money would go farther, since campaigns are entitled to cheaper ad rates than third-party groups. We also have to note that this is just one poll; given that multiple surveys have found a much tighter race recently, it's possible OpinionWorks is simply off. Polling primaries, after all, is not easy. But if it's not, then April's results could yield quite the surprise.
Senate:
● CO-Sen: Nothing says "GOP establishment" like Tom Tancredo, right? Ex-state Rep. Jon Keyser has tried to present himself as the pick of Republican insiders (a claim some operatives have disputed), but on Monday, he rolled out an endorsement from Tancredo, a former congressman who, until Donald Trump came along, was one of the leading lights in the berserker xenophobe movement. Tancredo's brand of anti-immigrant hostility might have played well in his House district (which he abandoned for a spectacularly unsuccessful presidential bid in 2008), but since then, he's waged two failed campaigns for governor and it's unlikely his views are popular with the public at large.
Oddly, Keyser packaged up the Tancredo announcement with a pair of much more traditional endorsements, from former Gov. Bill Owens and former Sen. Hank Brown. It's quite the mish-mash: If Keyser is hoping to enhance his cred as an opponent of immigration by inviting Tancredo's support, he's muddying the message by renewing his effort to portray himself as the establishment choice with backing from the likes of Owens and Brown. Keyser faces a massive gauntlet of fellow Republicans in the June 28 primary, and he's probably just trying to find a way to stand out, whatever it may be—and even if it doesn't entirely make sense.
● IN-Sen: Without offering any explanation as to why, the Indiana Democratic Party has decided not to challenge Republican Rep. Todd Young's petitions in court, after a deadlock on the state election commission allowed Young to stay on the ballot even though independent analyses showed he hadn't submitted enough valid signatures. However, Young's rival for the GOP nomination, Rep. Marlin Stutzman, had also sought to have Young booted off the ballot, and his campaign has yet to announce whether it will seek a legal review of commission's ruling.
● NC-Sen: PPP's final poll ahead of North Carolina's statewide primaries on Tuesday shows some pretty sleepy races all around. The only contest with much riding on it is the Democratic primary for Senate, where former state Rep. Deborah Ross is crushing her nearest opponents, taking 40 percent to 8 apiece for Spring Lake Mayor Chris Rey and businessman Ernest Reeves. A month ago, Ross' lead was just 22-10 over the same pair of rivals, but the establishment has rallied around her, and she appears to be the only Democrat to have aired any TV ads.
Ross would face GOP Sen. Richard Burr who, interestingly, has a smaller lead in his primary than Ross has in hers! Burr is up "just" 48-20 on tea partier Greg Brannon, which is a pretty meh performance for an incumbent. It's not too surprising, though, since Burr is pretty meh for a senator. He's never made much of an impression, but just by virtue of having served in Congress for over 20 years, your average movement conservative has every reason to despise him as a creature of Washington. It's not like he's about to lose renomination, but beloved he is not.
Ross will be a serious underdog heading into the general election, but with Senate Republicans ready to die for Donald Trump's right to pick the next Supreme Court justice, who knows what might happen?
● PA-Sen: Mercyhurst University takes a look at Republican Pat Toomey's general election prospects, and they find him with leads over his possible Democratic foes. However, while Toomey defeats 2010 rival Joe Sestak by a fairly small 43-38 margin, he outpaces Democratic establishment favorite Katie McGinty 47-34. A recent survey from the GOP group Harper Polling found Sestak trailing Toomey 47-41, not much better than McGinty's 47-39 deficit.
Mercyhurst tested two more Democrats against Toomey, though only one of them is actually running. They give Braddock Mayor John Fetterman, who has had trouble raising money, a 49-31 disadvantage. But for some reason, Mercyhurst also tests Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski, whom they have losing 47-31. Pawlowski originally planned to run for Senate, but he ended his campaign over the summer after the FBI searched his city hall. The investigation is still ongoing, and it's unclear why Mercyhurst decided to throw him in. In any case, it's very hard to believe that McGinty is barely performing better against Toomey than Pawlowski is (or that Fetterman is actually doing worse) after Pawlowski has received so much bad press.
Gubernatorial:
● ND-Gov: If wealthy businessman Doug Burgum wants to beat the much better-known Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem in the June GOP primary, he's going to need to spend big to get his name out. Burgum is putting $150,000 behind his first TV spot and unsurprisingly, he's portraying himself as a political outsider. The narrator tells the audience that the state economy has a $1 billion shortfall and declares that "career politicians don't have the answer." Burgum then shows up and talks about his business background and offers some vague platitudes about how he believes in North Dakota.
● NH-Gov: On Monday, Portsmouth Councilor Stefany Shaheen announced that she would not run for governor. Shaheen's decision leaves the September Democratic primary as a fight between Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern and former State Securities Regulation Director Mark Connolly. But almost immediately after Shaheen made her announcement, ex-Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand told WMUR that he was "seriously considering" entering the primary. Interestingly, Marchand ran for the Senate in 2007 but he dropped out when Jeanne Shaheen—Stefany's mother, jumped in. Marchand has been out of office since early 2008, so it's unclear if he has much pull in Granite State Democratic politics anymore. Marchand has served as state director for No Labels though, which is not a point in his favor.
It's also possible that other Democrats could run now that they won't need to face Shaheen. State Sen. Andrew Hosmer expressed interest in running back in October, but he's been quiet since then.
● WV-Gov: We almost never see polls from Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies, but they're out with a survey of the May Democratic primary on behalf of West Virginia Veterans. They give coal billionaire Jim Justice a 36-20 lead over ex-U.S. Attorney Booth Goodwin, with state Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler at 16.
A Repass Research poll for MetroNews West Virginia from last month gave Justice a smaller 32-25 edge against Goodwin though interestingly, both polls show completely different results for the Democratic presidential primary. Justice is the only candidate who has been running ads here so far. West Virginia Veterans tells us over email that they haven't made any endorsements here.
House:
● GA-03, 09, 11: Filing closed on Friday for Georgia's May 24 primary (filing also closed in Idaho, but there's not much to see there), and the state has a list of candidates here.
There probably won't be much to see in November in Georgia, though Democrats have recruited rich guy Jim Barksdale to challenge GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson. However, there are a few competitive House primaries worth watching. Eight Republicans have filed for the safely red 3rd District, but only two of them look particularly formidable. State Sen. Mike Crane will face businessman Jim Pace, who sounds like he has some money to burn. Drew Ferguson, the mayor of West Point (population 3,300) is also in. If no one takes a majority in May, there will be a July runoff.
Two Republicans also face credible primary challengers in safely red seats. In the 9th District, Doug Collins is fending off Paul Broun, a far-right ex-congressman who represented about 40 percent of this seat during the last decade. In the 11th District, freshman Barry Loudermilk is competing with Daniel Cowan, who is reportedly wealthy and connected.
● IA-02: Republican state Sen. Mark Chelgren barely raised any money for his campaign against Democratic incumbent Dave Loebsack, and his extreme rhetoric didn't help his chances. Unsurprisingly, Chelgren dropped out of the race on Friday: Physician Chris Peters has already stepped up to replace Chelgren, but he has a lot to prove in this 56-43 Obama seat.
● MD-04: Glenn Ivey, the former Prince George's County State's Attorney, is the first candidate to run a TV spot ahead of the April 26 primary for this safely blue seat. Ivey's ad goes after congressional Republicans, and Ivey promises to "protect President Obama's legacy" in the House, with him concluding, "I'll take on Republicans, for all of us." Ivey does not mention his two main intra-party foes, 2014 gubernatorial nominee Anthony Brown or Del. Joseline Peña-Melnyk.
● MD-08: Former hotel executive Kathleen Matthews has released a Garin-Hart-Yang poll of the April 26 Democratic primary for this safely blue suburban DC seat, and it finds her trailing state Sen. Jamie Raskin 31-28. Rich guy David Trone is at 13, while none of the numerous other candidates clear 4. An unreleased poll from early November found Raskin up 30-21, so Matthews is arguing she has momentum. However, unlike Matthews and Trone, Raskin has not aired any TV ads yet, so it's a good sign for him that he still has an edge, especially in his opponent's own poll.
Former Obama administration official Will Jawando only scores 2 percent in the poll, and he doesn't have the type of money that Matthews, Raskin, and Trone have at their disposal. Still, Jawando got a nice endorsement from John Lewis, who might be one of the few congressmen whose name carries any real weight with voters outside his state.
● NJ-03: The good news is that the DCCC hasn't given up trying to find a candidate to face freshman Republican Tom MacArthur in this 52-47 Obama seat. The bad news is that, with only weeks to go before the April 4 filing deadline, they really seem to be scraping the bottom of the barrel. PolitickerNJ reports that they're trying to recruit Jim Keady, whom Gov. Chris Christie famously told to "Sit down and shut up!" at a 2014 press conference. Keady ran for the 30th Assembly District last year and predictably got crushed in that 63-37 Romney seat.
● NY-13: On Sunday, New York City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito endorsed state Sen. Adriano Espaillat's bid for this open and safely blue seat; Mark-Viverito also backed his unsuccessful 2014 campaign against retiring Rep. Charlie Rangel. Mark-Viverito specifically cited Espaillat's support for helping Puerto Rico relieve its debt, and her backing could help the Dominican-born Espaillat win some votes in the district's large Puerto Rican community (about 12 percent of the seat's population is Puerto Rican).
● PA-08: Businesswoman Shaughnessy Naughton is out with the first ad of the Democratic primary for this swing seat. Naughton starts by talking about her career as a laboratory chemist before declaring, "As a scientist, I know there's more that Washington can do to help families." Naughton then talks about preserving Planned Parenthood funding, passing a ban on fracking in the area, and protecting Medicare and Social Security funding. Naughton faces state Rep. Steve Santarsiero on April 26.
● VA-04: On Monday, state Sen. Donald McEachin confirmed that he'd seek this safely blue open seat. McEachin, who hails from the Richmond area, is well-connected and he won't be easy to beat, but he won't have a clear path to the Democratic nod: On Friday, Chesapeake Councilor Ella Ward also announced that she would run here. Ward took 43 percent as Team Blue's nominee for the old version of the 4th in a campaign that attracted very little attention. Ward didn't raise much money then and she doesn't sound interested in fundraising this time either, so it's tough to see her stopping McEachin.
Legislative:
● Special Elections: Via Johnny Longtorso:
Pennsylvania HD-57: This is an open Republican seat right in the center of Westmoreland County. The candidates are Democrat Linda Iezzi, a businesswoman, and Republican Eric Nelson, a businessman. This seat went 62-36 for Mitt Romney in 2012.
Pennsylvania HD-192: This is an open Democratic seat in West Philadelphia. The candidates are Democrat Lynwood Savage, a ward committeeman; Republican Robert Bedford, a college student; and independent Leon Williams, an attorney running on the "Leon's Education Party" ticket. This seat went 97-3 for President Obama in 2012.
Pennsylvania HD-200: This is an open Democratic seat in Northwest Philadelphia. The candidates for this seat are Democrat Tonyelle Cook-Artis, who was chief of staff for the previous incumbent, and Republican Latryse McDowell, a ward committeewoman. This seat went 95-5 for President Obama in 2012.
Grab Bag:
● Super Tuesday II: On Tuesday, we have must-watch presidential primaries in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, Ohio, and North Carolina. We'll be liveblogging the night (which we'd call "Super Tuesday II: The Super Tuesday Holiday Special" if it would only fit) at Daily Kos Elections starting at 7 PM ET, when polls close in most of Florida. We'll also be livetweeting the proceedings.
But wait… there's more! We also have congressional primaries in Illinois and Ohio, and a Senate primary in North Carolina (the Tar Heel State moved its House primaries to June after they were ordered to redraw their congressional districts). The main event of the night will be the GOP primary to succeed ex-Speaker John Boehner in Ohio's 8th District, where tea party-aligned forces are looking to score a major pickup. Jeff Singer previews this race and the other major downballot contests in a new post.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.