Leading Off:
● FL-26: Maybe if he takes a ballot selfie we'll believe him: Vulnerable Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo had previously opined that Donald Trump might be "a phantom candidate recruited by the left to create this entire political circus"; now that reality is starting to set in, he's suggesting he might actually vote for Hillary Clinton if Trump is the GOP nominee.
This sort of talk is obviously designed to put as much distance as possible between the Donald and Curbelo, who's seeking re-election in a heavily Latino district that Barack Obama carried 55-44. While it's too soon to know what kind of downballot havoc Trump could wreak for his fellow Republicans nationally, it's pretty safe to say that Florida's 26th Congressional District is not Trump country, and Curbelo's high on the list of potential Trump victims.
And yet as soon as CBS4 Miami's report came out—for which Curbelo himself was interviewed—the congressman immediately tried to walk back his Clinton flirtation, saying, "I have no intention of supporting either of the candidates currently leading in the delegate count of each respective party." That's quite the circumlocution! That kind of squirrely double-talk, though, just makes Curbelo sound like a typical politician. Considering how unpopular those sorts are nowadays, Curbelo's hide-saving instincts may not be the sharpest.
Senate:
● CO-Sen, OH-Sen: The conservative Judicial Crisis Network, which is the main outside group defending the GOP's Supreme Court blockade, is running a $4 million campaign targeting both Republican and Democrats senators in half a dozen states. The brunt of their attack is devoted to Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet in Colorado, who's on the receiving end of a $1 million TV, radio, and digital ad buy. The television spot features a narrator who intones that Barack Obama's nominee, Merrick Garland, would "take away law-abiding Americans' ability to own firearms for protection" and "unleash unaccountable agencies like the EPA."
The other ads are devoted to praising Republican incumbents who support their party's obstruction efforts, like Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio, because he wants to "let the people decide."
● IN-Sen: Republican Rep. Todd Young is out with a fast-paced introductory TV spot, which out of the gate refers to him as a "pro-life conservative Marine!" Technically, it's not his first ad, but his only previous spot ran just briefly during a Republican presidential debate last fall. Young, the establishment-flavored candidate in the Hoosier State, faces tea partying rival Rep. Marlin Stutzman in the primary.
● MD-Sen: Maryland's Democratic Senate primary isn't that far away now (it's on April 26, along with the presidential vote), and Rep. Chris Van Hollen is upping his media presence with a new spot that details his efforts to close a loophole that allowed student loan lenders to lock in high interest rates. There's no word on how much Van Hollen's spending, but, relatedly, we do now have the size of the buy ($500,000), and a link to the ad itself, for the National Association of Realtors spot touting Van Hollen that we mentioned previously.
The battle between Van Hollen and Rep. Donna Edwards in the primary has largely been a proxy war; Edwards' fundraising hasn't been very robust, but she has benefited from advertising from EMILY's List that has helped her open up a small lead in recent polls. Some of Van Hollen's allies have cried foul, saying that Van Hollen is just as good on gender equity issues and arguing that this money would be better spent against Republicans instead, but EMILY has shown no signs of quitting the race.
● NH-Sen: The Senate Majority PAC is now running a second ad hammering GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte for supporting the GOP's Supreme Court obstinacy, saying that every nominee since 1875 has gotten a hearing or a vote. Reporter John DiStaso says that SMP is spending $340,000, though it's not clear if that also includes the prior ad, which linked Ayotte to Trump.
● NV-Sen: It seems that every election cycle, the big ad reservations start earlier and earlier. According to the media tracking firm Smart Media Group, former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, who doesn't face any real competition in the Democratic primary, has already booked $1 million in TV time for July and August. The move allows Masto to lock in more favorable rates, which is particularly important since the Nevada airwaves will likely be flooded with advertisements for both presidential candidates. Masto is likely to face GOP Rep. Joe Heck in November, though 2010 Senate nominee Sharron Angle recently joined the race.
House:
● FL-05, 10: Democratic Rep. Corrine Brown still hasn't decided which district she'll run in—or whether, it seems, she'll even seek another term at all. In light of new revelations that the House Ethics Committee is investigating her, Brown's spokesman would only say that his boss "does intend to run for re-election." Brown is also awaiting the outcome of a federal lawsuit she filed to undo the effects of a state court ruling that redrew her district, but her prospects look pretty hopeless.
● NC-02: Former Chatham County GOP chair Jim Duncan had earned early support from the Club for Growth in his effort to unseat apostate Republican Rep. Renee Ellmers, but even such a powerful ally couldn't help him overcome a bigger obstacle: redistricting. After a federal court found North Carolina's congressional map unconstitutional, state lawmakers redrew the lines and placed Rep. George Holding in the same district as Ellmers. Squeezed between two incumbents, Duncan had little room to maneuver, so instead, he decided to drop out at Friday's filing deadline.
While the new map has yet to be approved in court, if it holds up, Holding should remain the favorite in the revamped (but still decidedly red) 2nd District, since he currently represents about three times as much territory as Ellmers. However, there is still a third wheel in the race, tea partying physician Greg Brannon. His chances are very slim, but if Ellmers and Holding nuke each other, he could conceivably scurry out of the glowing wreckage.
● NC-09: GOP Rep. Robert Pittenger may have just caught a break. At the filing deadline, megachurch pastor Mark Harris, who finished third in the Republican primary for Senate in 2014, announced that he, too, would run in the 9th District. Just the other day, former Union County Commissioner Todd Johnson had announced a challenge to Pittenger, who faces a very serious-sounding investigation by the FBI and IRS into whether he improperly transferred money from his former real estate company to his 2012 campaign account.
With this backdrop, Johnson might have been able to cause trouble for Pittenger in a one-on-one contest, but now with three candidates in the primary, that makes it much easier for the incumbent to survive with a plurality. What's more, the state legislature eliminated runoffs for this year's primary, which was moved from mid-March to June 7 because of redistricting litigation. That, too, gives Pittenger a boost. Unfortunately for Democrats, though, the district (as presently configured) remains quite red, so even if Pittenger does win renomination, it would be difficult to take advantage of his ethical issues in the general election.
● NH-01: Well that was unexpected. Former business school dean Dan Innis, who unsuccessfully ran for the GOP nomination in 2014, just abandoned his rematch against the guy who beat him two years ago, Rep. Frank Guinta. Innis only cited vague personal reasons for "suspending" his campaign, but his path to victory grew rockier when state Rep. Pam Tucker entered the race a month ago.
However, another looming figure may have played an even bigger role in prompting Innis to step aside. Citing no sources, WMUR says that businessman Rich Ashooh, who has been contemplating a bid for months, "is expected to get into the race soon." Innis and Ashooh were likely to fight over the same pile of more moderate votes; indeed, Ashooh issued a statement praising Innis just after he announced his departure.
But if Ashooh, who narrowly lost to Guinta in 2010, does indeed join the primary, that would make Guinta more, not less, likely to win renomination. Guinta's been hammered over the past year over an illegal $355,000 campaign donation he took from his parents in 2010, which earned him an FEC fine and the scorn of his party. The situation is very similar to the scenario described in our NC-09 item just above: In a three-way race, the anti-incumbent vote is more apt to split between Tucker and Ashooh, allowing Guinta to win with a plurality.
Democrats, who are deciding between ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter between self-funding businessman Shawn O'Connor, would be quite pleased if that happens.
● NV-04, WA-07: Even though she was passed over by EMILY's List in favor of non-profit president Susie Lee, former Assemblywoman Lucy Flores has just earned the endorsement of another major pro-choice group, NARAL. Flores has spoken publicly about getting an abortion at the age of 16, very candidly acknowledging that she was simply not ready to raise a child at that point in her life. That willingness to be outspoken on an issue that is seldom discussed openly has made her something of a hero to reproductive rights activists. Flores faces a very competitive Democratic primary against Lee and state Sen. Ruben Kihuen for the right to take on GOP Rep. Cresent Hardy in Nevada's blue-leaning 4th District.
NARAL also endorsed state Sen. Pramila Jayapal in Washington's dark blue 7th District, which features a competitive Democratic primary to fill retiring Rep. Jim McDermott’s seat.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and Stephen Wolf.