Leading Off:
● NC-Gov: Republican Gov. Pat McCrory was already facing a competitive re-election fight with Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper before he signed state House Bill 2 last month. The state law nullified a Charlotte city ordinance that aimed to protect LGBT citizens and allow transgender citizens to use the bathroom that aligns with their gender identity. The new law also specifically targeted LGBT citizens for discrimination and specified that they must use bathrooms associated with the gender on their birth certificate. A number of businesses subsequently canceled planned expansions into North Carolina. On behalf of WRAL-TV, SurveyUSA gives us our first look at the general election since HB2 was signed, and they have Cooper leading McCrory 47-43.
SurveyUSA gives McCrory an underwater 43-47 approval rating, which exactly matches his deficit against Cooper. By contrast, the attorney general posts a strong 53-25 approval rating; PPP, which frequently polls North Carolina, has usually found Cooper largely unknown. SurveyUSA's last poll, conducted for High Point University a month ago, gave McCrory a 47-45 edge. A 6-point swing is noticeable, but at least for now, it doesn't appear that HB2 has dramatically changed the direction of this contest: The race was close before, and it's close now. Of course, you should never rely on just one poll to analyze an election. PPP surveys the state about once a month and other pollsters will also likely take a look at this contest before too long, so we should soon have a better idea of how much damage HB2 has or has not done to McCrory's campaign.
SurveyUSA digs a little deeper and finds that North Carolinians disapprove of HB2 by a 50-38 margin. However, respondents overall say they're angry about the economic damage the backlash from HB2 has done to the state instead of with the actual text of the law. By a 56-34 score, respondents say that they agree with the "new law requiring people to follow their birth certificate in using a restroom." By a similar margin, they also agree that "allowing transgender individuals to use the restroom of their choice pose[s] a security risk for women and children," which is exactly what McCrory and the GOP legislature have been arguing. However, respondents also agree by a 61-11 margin that the bill has hurt "North Carolina's ability to attract and keep businesses."
McCrory is aware that the firestorm from HB2 is doing his state, and by extension his political career, real damage. The governor recently issued an executive order that sought to assuage the law's critics, but it really didn't do much to actually reverse HB2. If McCrory can persuade businesses to return to the state, or at least stop the exodus, he may be able to escape without much electoral damage. However, if North Carolinians are convinced that McCrory has done long-term harm to their state's economy, voters probably will not be so willing to forgive him in November. Daily Kos Elections rates the general election as a Tossup.
1Q Fundraising: Be sure to check out our first quarter Senate fundraising chart, which we'll be updating as new numbers come in.
● AR-Sen: John Boozman (R-inc): $802,000 raised, $1.8 million cash-on-hand; Connor Eldridge (D): $372,000 cash-on-hand
● NC-Sen: Richard Burr (R-inc): $1.1 million raised, $5.8 million cash-on-hand
● FL-09: Dena Minning (D): $160,000 raised
● MI-08: Melissa Gilbert (D): $319,000 raised
● NH-02: Annie Kuster (D-inc): $429,000 raised, $1.66 million cash-on-hand
● PA-08: Brian Fitzpatrick (R): $450,000 raised, $410,000 cash-on-hand
Senate:
● MD-Sen: It's been an eventful few days in Maryland. On Tuesday, a Marist poll conducted for NBC4 gave Rep. Chris Van Hollen a 44-38 lead over Rep. Donna Edwards in the April 26 Democratic primary. This is the first time an independent poll has given Van Hollen the lead in months, though his campaign recently released a survey showing him up 45-40. A recent poll for the Washington Post had Edwards leading 44-40: All three surveys point to a tight finish.
A group called Working For Us PAC recently took to the airwaves to help Edwards, but their ad may have done her campaign more harm than good. The spot focuses on gun violence and features a clip of Barack Obama tearfully talking about the children who were murdered at Sandy Hook in 2012; the narrator then charges that "Chris Van Hollen met with NRA lobbyists to craft a loophole that would let the NRA skirt a new campaign finance law," before promoting Edwards as someone who stood up to the NRA. The White House was not happy with Obama's appearance in the commercial, saying that "the use of the president's image and statement in this context were misleading," and on Wednesday, they called for it to be taken down.
As The Baltimore Sun explains, the administration was angry at the ad's suggestion that Van Hollen sided with the NRA over the president. In 2010, Obama pushed for a campaign finance bill written by Van Hollen that aimed to roll back some of Citizen's United and, in an effort to get conservative Democrats to support it, House leaders added an exemption for the NRA. More groups were later exempted, and the bill passed the House, though Edwards was one of the 36 Democrats to oppose it.
Working For Us says that they'll be airing a new version of the spot that does not feature Obama. The president has not taken sides in the primary and the administration didn't publicly blame Edwards for the commercial, but Van Hollen didn't waste any time bashing the ad and arguing that he has "led the fight against the NRA in the Maryland legislature ... and continue[s] to lead the fight working with President Obama at the federal level." House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, a Maryland Democrat who has not endorsed either candidate, also criticized the spot.
Edwards herself released her own commercial on gun violence hours after the White House expressed its disapproval over the Working For Us ad. It opens with a news report describing how a stray bullet killed a Baltimore 3-year-old, before it features the girl's mother. Edwards herself then calls for "breaking the gun lobby's stranglehold on Washington," before adding, "So when my opponent and the NRA cut a backroom deal so they could keep buying off politicians, I called them on it, and we won." The ad does not mention Obama. It's far from clear if Edwards will be able to portray Van Hollen as weak on gun safety, or if the White House's reaction to other spot will hurt Edwards instead. Only one thing is for sure: The next two weeks will not be boring.
● PA-Sen: With less than two weeks left before the Democratic primary, Katie McGinty is out with her second ad trumpeting her support from President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. The narrator starts right off the bat by asking why the duo is endorsing her, and answers that it's because McGinty is "a champion of working families." McGinty faces 2010 nominee Joe Sestak, with Braddock Mayor John Fetterman also in the mix; the winner will take on GOP Sen. Pat Toomey.
House:
● FL-04: On Wednesday, Republican Rep. Ander Crenshaw announced that he would not seek a ninth term in this safely red Jacksonville-area seat. Crenshaw is arguably one of the most obscure members of Congress, though he does have a powerful role on the Appropriations Committee. Crenshaw did make history in 1992 when he became the first Republican leader of the state Senate since Reconstruction. Two years later, Crenshaw ran for governor but took fourth place in the primary, losing to Jeb Bush 46-12.
It didn't take very long for local Republicans to start expressing interest in this seat. Perhaps the most prominent potential candidate is John Rutherford, the former sheriff of Jacksonville. Rutherford sounded ready to run for Congress in a different district last year until court-ordered redistricting dramatically changed the map. Rutherford told the Florida Times-Union that he's "more than strongly" considering running to succeed Crenshaw, adding he was "huddling with a team as we speak." Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry quickly ruled out his own bid but confirmed that he'd back Rutherford. Peter Rummell, a major local GOP fundraiser, also said that he'd support Rutherford, and a few other area business leaders also made it clear that they want him to run.
A number of other Republicans are mulling a bid, or at least not ruling anything out yet. Ex-Jacksonville Mayor John Delaney, who currently serves as University of North Florida president, says he'll decide in the next few days. Termed-out state Rep. Lake Ray, former Jacksonville City Council President Richard Clark, and Duval County Property Appraiser Jerry Holland say they're considering, with Holland saying he'll decide by Monday; Florida Politics writes that Duval County Supervisor of Elections Mike Hogan, Duval County Tax Collector Michael Corrigan, and state Rep. Jay Fant are thinking about it, though there are no quotes from them. State Sen. Aaron Bean isn't saying no, while state Reps. Janet Adkins and Charles McBurney and state Sen. Travis Hutson have been mentioned, but have not said anything about their plans. The filing deadline is in June.
● GA-11: Businessman Daniel Cowan is out with his first TV spot for his primary campaign against freshman GOP Rep. Barry Loudermilk. The commercial features testimonials from various regular-looking folks who praise him as a businessman who isn't a politician, with the narrator adding, "Conservative businessman Daniel Cowan does what he says." (Basically if you've seen one of these "I'm not a politician!" political ads, you've seen them all.) Loudermilk isn't mentioned, though Cowan is clearly trying to frame this race as a match between a typical politician and an outsider.
Cowan announced that he raised $370,000 for the first quarter, though it's not clear yet how much, if any, of that haul was self-funded; there's also no word on the size of the buy for this spot. The primary for this safely red Atlanta-area seat is May 24. Three minor candidates are running, so it's possible that neither Loudermilk nor Cowan will take a majority of the vote and will need to fight it out in the July runoff.
● MD-04: Ex-Attorney General Eric Holder is one of the more prominent Obama cabinet alumni, and he's lent his endorsement to Glenn Ivey ahead of the April 26 primary for this safely blue seat. Ivey worked for Holder in the 1990s before becoming the state's attorney for Prince George's County. Ivey faces ex-Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown and state Del. Joseline Peña-Melnyk.
● NV-04, NY-19, WA-07: Can Bernie Sanders' fundraising success extend downballot? We're about to find out. On Wednesday, Sanders sent out fundraising emails to his massive list on behalf of three Democratic candidates who are involved in competitive primaries: ex-Assemblywoman Lucy Flores, who is hoping to take on Republican freshman Cresent Hardy in Nevada; law professor Zephyr Teachout, who is seeking a competitive open upstate New York district; and state Sen. Pramila Jayapal, who is campaigning for a safely blue open Seattle seat.
There are some signs that Sanders' supporters are willing to donate to likeminded candidates. Teachout raised a hefty $530,000 in the last three months while law professor Tim Canova, who is trying to unseat DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz in South Florida, brought in $557,000; neither contender had any direct help from Sanders. However, Teachout already had some name recognition with liberal donors from her 2014 primary bid against Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and she also received help from establishment-oriented politicians like Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. Canova also has the advantage of running against someone as high-profile as Wasserman Schultz, whom many Sanders supporters are angry with over what they perceive as favoritism she has shown toward Hillary Clinton in the presidential race.
By contrast, Flores and Jayapal's contests haven't attracted anywhere near the same amount of attention yet. If Sanders' can help generate a fundraising bonanza anything like what Teachout and Canova have seen, it will be a huge help for them. Flores struggled to raise money in 2015 (her first quarter report is not available yet), and she'll need plenty of resources if she wants to win the June primary. Flores is facing state Sen. Ruben Kihuen, who has the support of labor and powerful Sen. Harry Reid, as well as well-funded non-profit president Susie Lee.
We're also waiting to get a look at Jayapal's fundraising haul from her first months in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Jim McDermott. Jayapal is competing with King County Commissioner Joe McDermott (no relation to the congressman) and state Rep. Brady Walkinshaw in August top-two primary. Obama won Washington's 7th Congressional District 79-18, and it's pretty likely that Democrats will grab the two general election spots. Teachout herself is facing Livingston Town Councilman Will Yandik in June; the winner will need to work hard to flip this 52-46 Obama Hudson Valley seat.
● NY-19: Ex-Assemblyman John Faso has released his second TV spot ahead of his June GOP primary against businessman Andrew Heaney. The ad starts with a clip of Barack Obama (that looks like it was run through some very orange Instagram filter) where the president proclaims, "by almost every economic measure, we are significantly better off." Faso then jumps in and tells the audience that the economy sucks, and he lays out his plan to fix it. Faso ends by saying that "President Obama doesn't get it, you can't fix a problem if you keep ignoring it."
On the Democratic side, the New York State United Teachers has throw its backing behind law professor Zephyr Teachout; she also received an endorsement from Bernie Sanders this week (see our item above). Teachout is competing with Livingston Town Councilman Will Yandik in the primary for this competitive Hudson Valley seat.
● VA-02: When GOP Rep. Randy Forbes began considering running in this Hampton Roads seat after his old district became safely blue, Virginia Beach Sheriff Ken Stolle paid for robocalls urging people to tell Forbes to stay out. Forbes decided to run here even though he doesn't represent any of the new 2nd District, and it's no surprise that Stolle has now endorsed state Del. Scott Taylor in the June primary.
Mayoral:
● Baltimore, MD Mayor: With less than two weeks to go before the Democratic primary, state Sen. Catherine Pugh is swimming in endorsements. On Wednesday, City Councilor Nick Mosby ended his mayoral campaign and threw his support behind Pugh. The only recent poll we've seen showed Mosby taking only 5 percent so he probably doesn't bring too many votes with him, but it's a good story for Pugh close to Election Day.
Pugh was also backed by ex-NAACP head Ben Jealous; prominent attorney Billy Murphy, who helped Freddie Gray's family get a $6.4 million settlement from the city after Gray's death in police custody last year; and the Rev. Jamal Bryant, who leads a 12,000-person congregation and ran a brief campaign for Congress last year before Rep. Elijah Cummings made it clear that he'd seek another term. Cummings also endorsed Pugh this week. The recent OpinionWorks poll gave Pugh a 31-25 edge against ex-Mayor Shelia Dixon, with no one else in striking distance.
Grab Bag:
● Deaths: On Wednesday, former Arkansas Democratic Rep. Ray Thornton died at the age of 87. Thornton was primarily known for being part of a bipartisan group on the House Judiciary Committee that drafted the articles of impeachment against Richard Nixon during the Watergate scandal. Thornton chose not to seek a fourth term in 1978 and instead ran for the Senate, where he took a close third place in the primary and narrowly missed the runoff; David Pryor went on to win the seat.
Following a stint as head of both Arkansas State University and the University of Arkansas, Thornton successfully ran for the House again in 1990. After Arkansas voters approved a 1992 measure that would have denied a place on the ballot to anyone who had served three terms in the House or two terms in the Senate, Thornton was a party in the ensuring lawsuit (U.S. Term Limits, Inc. v. Thornton). In 1995, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in a five to four vote that the Arkansas law was unconstitutional and that states could not pass term limits on members of Congress. Thornton chose not to run again in 1996.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
