We have two new polls, and they both show North Carolina Republican Gov. Pat McCrory trailing Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper. The most eye-popping result comes from the Republican pollster National Research on behalf of the conservative Civitas Institute, and they have Cooper destroying the governor 46-36. A new firm called RABA Research, which is run by Republican operative Tim Albrecht and Democrat Brad Anderson (who lost a tight 2014 general election for Iowa secretary of state), has Cooper up by a smaller 41-36.
Three other pollsters have released numbers since McCrory signed HB2, the notorious anti-LGBT that has led several businesses to cancel planned expansions into North Carolina. PPP showed Cooper up just 43-42, while SurveyUSA and Elon University had him leading 47-43 and 48-42 respectively. We still have relatively little data, but at least for now, RABA seems closer to the consensus than National Research.
However, as Harry Enten points out, RABA asked the horserace question after asking respondents how they feel about HB2, McCrory’s handling of HB2, whether HB2 should be repealed, and whether NASCAR’s opposition to HB2 makes respondents more or less likely to oppose the law. The best thing to do would have been to ask voters about Cooper-McCrory first rather than risk influencing them one way or another. While National Research’s numbers seem too good to be true for Democrats, no HB2 questions were asked before the horserace.