Leading Off:
● CA-24: Not long ago, both the DCCC and House Majority PAC began airing ads in support of Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal, even though a fellow Democrat, Santa Barbara Mayor Helene Schneider, is also in the race. But Team Blue doesn't seem to be worried that Schneider will beat Carbajal in California's 24th Congressional District. Instead, they appear to be concerned that two Republicans, Assemblyman Katcho Achadjian and businessman Justin Fareed, will grab first and second place in the June 7 top-two primary, which would send them both to the general election and give Republicans an automatic pickup in this 54-43 Obama seat. And it looks like the NRCC thinks the same thing is possible, since it's now spending $220,000 on a spot that seems designed to shift voters from Carbajal to Schneider in order to keep both Democrats from advancing past the primary.
The NRCC's ad, which comes to us via the National Journal, nominally hits both Carbajal and Schneider. The narrator accuses Carbajal of voting to increase his own pay and using a taxpayer-funded car allowance. However, the spot then "attacks" Schneider for "standing with liberal environmentalists who want to stop off-shore drilling," and "wanting to go further than Obamacare, supporting universal coverage for everyone." Of course, these aren't actually attacks: The GOP is hoping that liberals watching will be disgusted with Carbajal and decide that Schneider is the solid progressive who deserves their vote.
Plenty of politicians and organizations have tried this tactic, with mixed success. In 2012, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill ran ads designed to help then-Rep. Todd Akin defeat two other foes in the Missouri GOP primary. McCaskill spots "blasted" Akin as "pro-family" and "too conservative for Missouri," which of course only endeared Akin to Republican primary voters and helped him win the nomination. (It was only weeks later that Akin destroyed his campaign with his infamous "legitimate rape" comments.) However, when the DCCC tried a similar approach in a Nebraska House Republican primary earlier this month, the national Republicans' preferred candidate won decisively.
Part of the reason why these tactics don't always work is that the ads from national groups aren't the only ones that voters see. Indeed, Carbajal has a massive financial edge over Schneider, and he's now out with his sixth TV spot. Once again, Carbajal emphasizes college debt. The narrator says that Carbajal wants to "force the banks to refinance student loans." Achadjian is also up with a commercial. His narrator claims that Nancy Pelosi and Carbajal are lying about Achadjian to "frighten women voters," before the candidate's daughter (who is also his campaign manager) appears and says he "voted to strengthen paid family leave, stop sex discrimination in the workplace, and make college campuses safer for women."
Senate:
● CO-Sen: The Senate Conservatives Fund, one of the more rambunctious members of DC's "tea party establishment," has endorsed El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn in next month's GOP primary. Glenn wowed movement conservatives with a speech he delivered at the state Republican convention in April and was the only candidate to win the party's official endorsement, taking 70 percent of delegates' votes. But Glenn's campaign is penniless, and he'll need help from the likes of the SCF. The group has not, however, said whether it will spend anything in this race.
Gubernatorial:
● IL-Gov: Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin has now spoken out in response to recent speculation that he might run for governor in 2018, and nothing he said ruled out such a bid in the slightest. Durbin offered the usual boilerplate, declaring that he loves his current job and has "no other aspirations for any other office." But at the same time, he also whacked GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner, saying the governor "has a passion against labor unions, has a passion about lowering the wages of working people." Let's check back in on this one next year.
● NC-Gov: While some pollsters have found numbers that suggestion GOP Gov. Pat McCrory has taken a real hit over his support for HB2, the state's embarrassing new anti-LGBT law, PPP has been more of a skeptic. Their latest survey has McCrory tied with state Attorney General Roy Cooper, his Democratic opponent, at 41 apiece, with Libertarian Lon Cecil taking 5 percent of the vote. As Tom Jensen notes, the two major candidates have never been separated by more than 3 points all year, and as you're likely aware, PPP polls its home state frequently. McCrory is still underwater with a 44-49 approval rating, but an initial round of negative ads from the RGA may have hurt Cooper, sending him from 37-27 favorability score down to 30-33.
● WA-Gov: Republican Bill Bryant faces a big cash deficit against Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee, and national Republicans haven't aired any ads here yet, which is not a sign that they feel good about his chances. A recent public poll found Bryant down 48-36, so he's out with his own survey… that also shows him losing. The Moore Information poll gives Inslee a 43-36 edge, which the memo spins as a "narrow" lead. Queue the sad trombone.
The campaign argues that Bryant will do better when he becomes better known and that voters want change after 32 years of Democratic governors. Still, even Moore gives Inslee a 41-29 favorable image, so it's not like voters in this blue state are in a hurry to part ways with him. Daily Kos Elections rates the general election as Likely Democratic.
House:
● CO-03: On Tuesday, EMILY's List endorsed former state Sen. Gail Schwartz in her race against GOP Rep. Scott Tipton. Previously, the DCCC added Schwartz to its Red to Blue program, so this is another sign that the Democratic establishment is taking her chances seriously, despite her late start and the difficult terrain she faces in this district that Mitt Romney won 52-46.
● HI-01: Last week, freshman Democratic Rep. Mark Takai announced that he would retire due to health reasons, and his prospective successors have only until the June 7 filing deadline to decide what they'll do. According to Civil Beat's Nathan Eagle, Democratic politicians are awaiting to see if ex-Rep. Colleen Hanabusa will run to reclaim her old House seat. Hanabusa gave up this district in 2014 to run for the Senate, a contest she narrowly lost. Last year, Hanabusa was appointed to the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation board of directors, which is overseeing the island's huge and very controversial rail project and just a month ago, she was made the board's new chair.
Hanabusa hasn't said anything publicly about her interest in a House campaign, but local politicians are talking openly about the possibility. State Sen. Donna Mercado Kim, who lost the primary to Takai, says she "probably" won't try again, and hopes that Democrats just avoid a competitive primary and consolidate behind one candidate. Ex-Honolulu City Councilor Stanley Chang, who also lost to Takai, declined to rule out a bid with or without Hanabusa on the ballot, though he spoke well of the former congresswoman. In any case, we won't need to wait long to see what Hanabusa will do.
● MN-02: Incendiary radio host Jason Lewis just earned the support of GOP Rep. Tom Emmer, who represents the neighboring district that used to be Michele Bachmann's. Lewis previously earned the formal endorsement of the state Republican Party, and some observers think that Emmer's fealty to the endorsement process is behind this move. But while Emmer's kept a low profile in his first term in Congress, he's always been a hardcore conservative, so it's not out of character that he'd back Lewis, who still faces a primary against businesswoman Darlene Miller and former state Sen. John Howe in August. Health care executive Angie Craig is the only Democrat seeking this swingy open seat.
● NC-09: While Rep. Robert Pittenger is seeking renomination in a safely red Charlotte-area seat that's about 60 percent new to him, he seems to have the clear edge on June 7. Pittenger faces two primary opponents, minister and 2014 Senate candidate Mark Harris, and ex-Union County Commissioner Todd Johnson, and they may split the vote too much to stop Pittenger from winning (there is no runoff in North Carolina this year). Pittenger is also very wealthy, while both his opponents have only had a few months to raise money. However, the contest between Pittenger and Harris has gotten quite nasty, and the primary may be more competitive than it initially looked.
Harris recently launched a TV spot that, after saying that President Obama bowed to communist dictators, claims that Republicans bowed to Obama. Harris goes on to accuse Pittenger of helping John Boehner and Obama cut deals that "raised the debt, gave illegals amnesty, funded Obamacare, and Planned Parenthood, yet cut military funding." Harris then argues that he's the real conservative in the race. Harris' spot doesn't mention the FBI investigation over allegations that Pittenger improperly transferred money from his former real estate company into his 2012 campaign. However, a recent web video touched on the issue.
Either Pittenger believes that Harris is a real threat or his attacks just really got under his skin, but either way, the congressman is out with a negative TV spot aimed at him. Pittenger's commercial says that Harris launched false attacks, before accusing him of backing "a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants" while opposing funding the military. The second half of the ad portrays Pittenger as an ardent conservative. So far, both campaigns are ignoring Johnson in their ads.
● NV-03: Both major Republicans are deploying someone more famous than them in a new ad ahead of the June 14 primary. Wealthy perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian highlights his late father, former UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian. Little Tark's spot starts with him declaring, "My father taught me, always take care of those who take care of you," as a photo flashes by featuring the candidate helping Tark the Shark across a basketball court.
But lest you think this was a nice heartwarming commercial, Tarkanian quickly goes negative and says that "today’s politicians have forgotten that." He then accuses those politicians of selling out. Tarkanian goes on to complain about unsafe borders, rising taxes, and "drivers licenses and amnesty" going to "illegal immigrants." Tarkanian then accuses his intra-party rival, state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson, of being one of the establishment politicians who voted for each of these. Tarkanian concludes by saying that people can't trust these types of people.
Roberson himself is deploying his most prominent supporter, Gov. Brian Sandoval. Sandoval tells the audience that Roberson "passed critical education reforms, reduced state spending, and saved the taxpayers billions by reforming the state retirement system, fought to protect our Second Amendment rights, and so much more." Thankfully the ad is only 30 seconds, so we don't need to hear more. Nevada's 3rd District is very competitive, and Democrats would rather face Tarkanian, who is very conservative and has some baggage from his family's failed business venture.
● NV-04: Big Dog Alert! State Sen. Ruben Kihuen already had Sen. Harry Reid and local organized labor in his corner for the June 14 Democratic primary, and he picked up an endorsement from Bill Clinton on Tuesday. Kihuen faces a competitive three-way race with wealthy education activist Susie Lee and ex-Assemblywoman Lucy Flores, who is enjoying a Bernie Sanders-fueled fundraising bonanza and has some name recognition from her 2014 lieutenant governor campaign.
A recent poll for Lee gave Flores a 26-23 lead over her with Kihuen at just 11, and his campaign never released contradictory numbers. However, Kihuen has the resources to air ads, and he'll undoubtedly be touting his support from the Big Dog soon. The winner will face Republican freshman Rep. Cresent Hardy.
Legislative:
● State Legislatures: On Tuesday, Bernie Sanders endorsed eight Democrats running for state legislatures around the country—but they weren't the picks that we would have made. That's because Sanders' candidates are mostly incumbents in safely Democratic districts, and in chambers where there's little or no chance party control could flip. In a new piece, we break down each race and offer some broad suggestions for the kinds of criteria Sanders should consider when he makes future endorsements.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
