In 2014, exit polls showed a dramatic reversal of fortune for Democrats among Asian American voters. After President Obama walloped Mitt Romney 73-26 in 2012, Republicans actually had a one point advantage (50-49) in the 2014 House nationwide exit poll. A column in Bloomberg View summed it up this way:
While it's premature to argue that Republicans have figured out how to appeal to Asian-American voters again, yesterday's results should encourage those looking to build support for Republican candidates and policies in minority communities. The real test will come in the 2016 presidential race.
Heh. 2016, eh? Well, how’s that working out?
First, it should be noted that the 2014 exit polls were very likely wrong; see here for a good critique. Polls that were carefully designed to sample Asian American voters did not show such a dramatic reversal, although Democratic fortunes did lag somewhat.
One of those excellent pollsters just released a new report this week, the Spring 2016 Asian American Voter Survey, and, in a theme that is starting to sound familiar, Asian Americans really do not like Donald Trump.
But there’s a twist: In the past, this segment of the electorate has been much less likely than the electorate at large to identify with a party. This year, however, there’s been a surge in identification as a Democrat. The survey report proposes that the exclusionary rhetoric of Trump may be a factor.
We’ll start with the basic favorability ratings, shown at the top: Approximately two-thirds of Asian American voters have a favorable view of President Obama, up somewhat since 2012. Hillary Clinton has numbers similar to what Obama’s were in 2012.
And Trump? He’s sitting at a paltry 19 percent, worse than Mitt Romney’s numbers in 2012. And that is how 2016 is working out.
In 2008 and 2012, about half of Asian Americans described themselves as independent or did not identify with any party. This year, that has changed. Indeed, when you include leaners, a majority now side with Democrats.
Of course, “Asian American” is a huge umbrella term, encompassing a vast number of ethnicities. Below, we’ve broken out the six ethnicities that were targeted in the 2016 poll to show the differences.
All groups show more voters identifying as Democrats this year compared to 2012 or 2008. Vietnamese Americans are still the most Republican, although the degree varies by state.
Click here to enlarge.
Why is this happening? The obvious answer is one Donald J. Trump, and his influence on the primary process. The poll asked respondents two questions about whether they would switch their vote if a candidate they mostly agreed with was spouting off anti-immigrant or anti-Muslim rhetoric. Two out of five said they would.
Another study reported last fall also showed that exposing Asian Americans to a brief, obnoxious race-based interaction prior to taking a survey increased the participants’ likelihood of identifying as a Democrat. Trump, arguably, is one walking, talking, obnoxious race-based politician.
So with all this damning information at hand, what is the response of the Republican party?
A scintillating combination of Kill the Messenger—and Denial.
Good luck with that.
