The latest PPP survey of North Carolina finds voters deadlocked over the state’s political races but still highly disillusioned with the GOP-enacted HB2 law targeting LGBT individuals. By an 11-point margin, Tar Heel voters oppose the state's discriminatory law (43-32); 52 percent say it's "hurting" the state versus 28 percent who say it's "helping;" and 49 percent say it's had a "negative impact" on the economy while just 10 percent say the effect has been "positive."
All of this is making the gubernatorial race, among others, very unpredictable. Republican Gov. Pat McCrory and his Democratic challenger, Attorney General Roy Cooper, are tied at 41 percent with 13 percent undecided and a Libertarian candidate drawing 6 percent support. Here’s PPP on the overall outlook:
McCrory has an under water approval rating for the 36th month in a row, coming in at 43/47 this time around. Cooper continues to be a bit of a blank slate to voters in the state- a 35% plurality have no opinion about him one way or another with 34% seeing him favorably and 31% unfavorably. There doesn't seem to be much of anything that could blow this race open in one direction or another. [...]
So to review our North Carolina findings this week, the Presidential race is tied, the Gubernatorial contest is tied, the race for Lieutenant Governor is tied, and it's just a 3 point margin in the Senate race. It's hard to imagine there's another state more competitive politically this year.
President Obama won North Carolina by a razor-thin margin in 2008 but lost it in 2012. The fact that this usually reliable red state continues to be so unpredictable this election cycle is worth keeping an eye on.