Leading Off:
● ME-02, NV-03/04, VA-10: Democrats—in particular the DCCC and the House Majority PAC—have been really good about communicating the TV reservations they have planned for the fall. Republicans, by contrast, have not. Indeed, an NRCC spokesman recently said that the committee "does not publicly discuss the size or scope of our media buys," but this isn't merely a question of satisfying info-hungry reporters. Groups making independent expenditures can't legally coordinate with the campaigns they're trying to help, so they need to find some way to publicly communicate their spending plans. Typically, that's done through the press.
The NRCC, though, has generally eschewed that route (maybe they post announcements to some kind of semi-private website?), which is why our spreadsheet tracking airtime reservations is so heavily weighted toward the Democrats. But every so often, some GOP details leak out anyway, and thanks to some sleuthing, we've uncovered a few more races where Republicans (at least for now) are planning to compete during the stretch run.
Way back in April, Nathan Gonzales reported that the NRCC had booked time in the Las Vegas media market, but no details were available about how much it was planning to spend. The AP, though, reported not long ago that the committee had reserved $6 million to run ads, which could be used either in the open-seat race in the 3rd District or to shore up vulnerable freshman Rep. Cresent Hardy in the 4th. By contrast, the DCCC and HMP together have reserved $9.6 million in Vegas.
Over in Maine, meanwhile, the very same NRCC spokesperson who claimed his organization doesn't talk about media buys told the Bangor Daily News last month that the committee had reserved $1.3 million "statewide" to help 2nd District Rep. Bruce Poliquin, another first-term member. But what we don't know, though, is how this reservation is split between markets. About half the district is covered by the Bangor media market while about a third is in Portland, which is more expensive. (The remainder falls under Presque Isle, which is right up near the border with Canada; on our tracker, we're just going to divide the total between the two main markets.) The D-Trip, which is backing former state Sen. Emily Cain in a rematch, has reserved $870,000 in Portland and Bangor so far.
Finally, down in Virginia—or more accurately, Washington, DC—the National Journal reports that the NRCC has booked $3.2 million to shore up Rep. Barbara Comstock, who faces a challenge from Democrat LuAnn Bennett, a real estate developer and former wife of ex-Rep. Jim Moran. Together, the DCCC and HMP have reserved about $2.8 million in TV time in this market.
Overall, though, the disparity is stark. The two big Democratic groups have booked a total of $55.6 million combined. The NRCC, by contrast, has only reserved $12.8 million in TV time—at least, that we're aware of. That'll change, of course, but you do still have to wonder why Republicans have been so reluctant to commit to their House majority, especially when Donald Trump threatens to ruin everything. In any event, we'll continue to keep tabs on all House fall reservations, but if you ever spot any new information, please let us know!
2Q Fundraising:
Be sure to check out our second quarter Senate fundraising chart, which we'll be updating as new numbers come in.
● FL-Sen: Patrick Murphy (D): $2.4 million raised, $7.2 million cash-on-hand
● IL-Sen: Tammy Duckworth (D): $2.7 million raised, $5.5 million cash-on-hand
● KY-Sen: Jim Gray (D): $1.1 million raised (no self-funding)
● NH-Sen: Kelly Ayotte (R-inc): $2.5 million raised, $7 million cash-on-hand; Maggie Hassan (D): $3.2 million raised, $4.2 million cash-on-hand
● PA-Sen: Pat Toomey (R-inc): $3.1 million raised
● IN-Gov: Mike Pence (R-inc): $2.6 million raised, $7.4 million cash-on-hand; John Gregg (D): $2.8 million raised, $5.8 million cash-on-hand
● CA-52: Scott Peters (D-inc): $558,000 raised, $2 million cash-on-hand
● FL-18: Rick Kozell (R): $150,000 raised
● FL-23: Tim Canova (D): $1.7 million raised
● IL-10: Bob Dold! (R-inc): $850,000 raised, $2.3 million cash-on-hand
● NY-21: Elise Stefanik (R-inc): $575,000 raised, $1.4 million cash-on-hand; Mike Derrick (D): $325,000 raised, $450,000 cash-on-hand
● PA-11: Mike Marsicano (D): $330,000 self-funded, $273,000 cash-on-hand
● WI-08: Tom Nelson (D): $530,000 raised, $470,000 cash-on-hand
Senate:
● FL-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has launched a reported $1.5 million buy to run a new ad attacking Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy over allegations that he inflated his resume. The traditional 30-second spot is very similar to a recent minute-long effort from the NRSC (minus the bizarre cell-phone-in-toilet shot), and it's aimed at denying Murphy the Democratic nomination in next month's primary. Note that this is on top of another $1.5 million in spending that's reportedly coming down the pike from another GOP group, the Senate Leadership Fund, but SLF hasn't released its ads yet.
● FL-Sen, MO-Sen, PA-Sen: The American Chemistry Council has launched what they're calling "a seven-figure ad campaign running across three states" in support of GOP Sens. Marco Rubio, Roy Blunt, and Pat Toomey. The commercials praise the senators as fiscal conservatives who work across party lines. Interestingly, the ACC says their Florida spot is only airing in Spanish.
● OH-Sen: The Democratic group Senate Majority PAC has launched a $2.5 million buy against GOP Sen. Rob Portman that will last until July 18. Their first commercial features a guy on a Segway (who is disappointingly not Gob Bluth) pointing to a building on Wall Street, where he says "somebody up there is probably writing Rob Portman a check." Segway guy goes on to accuse Portman of trying to privatize Social Security and concludes that "[m]aybe Rob Portman should be running for senator of Wall Street, not Ohio."
Gubernatorial:
● OR-Gov: A group called iCitizen, which we've never heard of before now, takes a look at the rarely-polled Oregon gubernatorial contest, and they give Democratic Gov. Kate Brown a 42-35 edge over physician Bud Pierce. The Portland Tribune describes iCitizen, which conducted its poll online, as a "nonpartisan public involvement organization." The only other poll we've seen here all year was a Pierce internal that gave Brown a 39-37 lead. For what it's worth, iCitizen has Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 46-32, which seems like a reasonable margin.
● VT-Gov: With a month to go before the Aug. 9 Democratic primary, ex-Vermont Secretary of Transportation Sue Minter is up with her second TV spot. The commercial features an aerial shot of Minter's hometown of Waterbury, as the candidate asks the audience to imagine it underwater, a reference to the floods that hit the area hard during Hurricane Irene in 2011. Minter continues by saying that the community has "invested. Creating a vibrant downtown with new businesses and livable wage jobs," as graphics pop up that label buildings things like "New Restaurant," "New Brewery," and "Flood Resilience." Minter calls for doing the same thing across the state, and calls for two-years tuition free technical and community college and a green economy.
House:
● AK-AL: Former Alaska public broadcasting CEO Steve Lindbeck, who is challenging longtime GOP Rep. Don Young, has released a new internal poll from PPP, though it only contains information about the incumbent's favorability ratings. Young, the longest-serving Republican in the House, earns positive marks from just 39 percent of voters while 49 percent view him negatively. There are no horserace numbers, but it's easy to understand why you'd leave those off: Everyone in Alaska has known Young for decades, while Lindbeck has minimal name recognition, so any head-to-head matchups just won't look good for a challenger this early on. If Lindbeck can raise enough money to advertise (and fortunately, Alaska's a cheap state), he'll have a chance to change that calculus.
● FL-05: Multiple media outlets report that Democratic Rep. Corrine Brown has been indicted on charges related to Open Door for Education, an unregistered charity. However, the indictment apparently won't be officially announced until Friday.
A little while ago, the head of One Door pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit wire fraud. Brown improperly used the House seal for solicitations for One Door, even though the group used almost none of the money it took in for scholarship in furtherance of its supposed mission. We'll likely know much more on Friday. Redistricting split up Brown's old congressional district, and she was already facing a tough primary with ex-state Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson on Aug. 30, and this certainly won't help her chances. This seat is safely blue.
● FL-26: A May poll from businesswoman Annette Taddeo confirmed that she was losing the Aug. 30 Democratic primary to ex-Rep. Joe Garcia by double digits, but she's hoping that TV advertising will help her turn things around. Politico reports that Taddeo will be spending $296,000 to go up on TV from July 19 to Aug. 22. Last month, Garcia sounded reluctant to advertise anytime soon, saying that he wanted to save his resources for the general election against GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo.
● LA-03: Lafayette School Board member Erick Knezek, one of the many Republicans seeking this safely red seat, has announced that he's "suspending" his campaign. Knezek had largely been self-funding his bid, but he would have had a tough time competing with Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, who has plenty of cash and name recognition. Louisiana's filing deadline, which is the last in the nation, is July 22.
● House: The DCCC has announced that it is launching a "seven figure national advertising campaign" in 10 GOP-held congressional districts. Versions of two separate spots (here and here) will run on cable in each seat. The targeted incumbents are:
Steve Knight, CA-25
Mike Coffman, CO-06
John Mica, FL-07
Carlos Curbelo, FL-26
David Young, IA-03
Bob Dold!, IL-10
Erik Paulsen, MN-03
John Katko, NY-24
Will Hurd, TX-23
Barbara Comstock, VA-10
The first ad features several people, including one who identifies as a lifelong Republican, accusing GOP congressmen of putting loyalty to Donald Trump and his offensive remarks above loyalty to the country. One man sums it up by asking, if Trump "is our standard bearer, what the heck happened to our standards?"
The second commercial features several students bullying another kid as the narrator asks, "How would you feel if your child was the school bully? Would you feel much better to learn they were only the bully's sidekick?" The spot then links congressional Republicans to Trump, asking if they shouldn't be standing up to the bully instead of standing with him. We're likely to see some version of these messages in many, many downballot Democratic ads, as Team Blue works hard to link Republican candidates to Trump.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and Stephen Wolf.
